VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Found it https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/VillasatDisneyland_Member_Magickey.pdf

Gets to about $200/pt (before magical beginnings) at the 200 point level— is that the best price yet for VDH?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Gets to about $200/pt (before magical beginnings) at the 200 point level— is that the best price yet for VDH?

No. My purchase for 200 pts was 38,400 before MB so $2,500 less than this.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

No. My purchase for 200 pts was 38,400 before MB so $2,500 less than this.

It might be the lowest price for 100 points though? I don’t think we’ve seen many incentives for that small of a contract?

 

[VGCgroupie]

It might be the lowest price for 100 points though? I don’t think we’ve seen many incentives for that small of a contract?

Yep this is the lowest I have seen for 100 pts it beats last quarter, I wasn't following along at opening though.

 

[AstroBlasters]

No. My purchase for 200 pts was 38,400 before MB so $2,500 less than this.

Yeah, it was at roughly $42pp off before MB last round for 200 points.

But $208pp for 100 points isn’t terrible. <ahem PVB incentives>

 

[VGCgroupie]

Yeah, it was at roughly $42pp off before MB last round for 200 points.

But $208pp for 100 points isn’t terrible. <ahem PVB incentives>

Plus MB at VDH. I stopped following along so not even sure if yes MB at poly or still no MB at Poly. I hope this price point at 100 pts helps sell to more people

 

[supercarrie]

Looking at the ticket price increase again today…. you know what would increase VDH direct sales… a DVC Magic Key!

C’mon Disney Execs!

The $20 discount that can only be utilized at the ticket booths when they are actively on sale doesn’t entice you?

 

[Chili327]

It might be the lowest price for 100 points though? I don’t think we’ve seen many incentives for that small of a contract?

Yep this is the lowest I have seen for 100 pts it beats last quarter, I wasn't following along at opening though.

100 makes sense, since no one is staying at DLR/VDH for 2 weeks. lol

 

[AstroBlasters]

Plus MB at VDH. I stopped following along so not even sure if yes MB at poly or still no MB at Poly. I hope this price point at 100 pts helps sell to more people

Don’t have to get 150 for MB?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Don’t have to get 150 for MB?

Oh yeah possibly.

 

[byurick]

Don’t have to get 150 for MB?

Yes in all the last rounds of incentives I've looked at 150 is minimum for MB.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes in all the last rounds of incentives I've looked at 150 is minimum for MB.

So for a DEC UY, just have them bank the 23 points if under 100.

 

[Bucketfoot]

Is there something in here with updated numbers on how many of each room type have been declared? More curious than anything.

 

[VGCgroupie]

How long after a room gets declared does it go into inventory for booking?

Are we anywhere near a new declaration? Or is that not something that can be predicted?

 

[Sandisw]

How long after a room gets declared does it go into inventory for booking?

Are we anywhere near a new declaration? Or is that not something that can be predicted?

No one really knows when they load new inventory after it’s discovered and reported that another declaration has occurred.

Sometimes you can tell when looking at the availability. But, DVD declared based on sales.

 

[VGCgroupie]

No one really knows when they load new inventory after it’s discovered and reported that another declaration has occurred.

Sometimes you can tell when looking at the availability. But, DVD declared based on sales.

Always here with the knowledge. Thanks!

 

[ehh]

How long after a room gets declared does it go into inventory for booking?

It's often the other way around: the room is added to inventory for future booking dates based on forecasted sales and declarations, months (usually 11) before the formal declaration. Then, later, the formal declaration roughly coincides with the date where expanded inventory was.

Totally hypothetically (i'm even going to use dates that don't exist):

• On March 30th of year N, the inventory made available for booking 11m out on February 30th, N+1 is 25 rooms in a category.
  • Prior days have been 25, for some time.
• The next day, on March 31st of year N, the inventory made available for February 31st, N+1 is increased to 30 rooms in a category.
  • Future dates are also 30, for some time.
• Those 30 rooms are booked by members in the following days/weeks/months.
• Around February 31st of year N+1, the official declaration paperwork is filed for those 5 rooms.

Said another way, if working backwards from declaration paperwork, it's often the case that the rooms that were added to inventory by the declaration were actually added to 'future inventory' 11 months ago.

It's very uncommon these days for there to be a mass inventory addition due to a declaration. It's only when their forecasting gets it wrong on the low-side, and they are very conservative (on the high-side) with their forecasts from what I can see.

Are we anywhere near a new declaration? Or is that not something that can be predicted?

I haven't been keeping up with 'future inventory' levels at VDH, so I don't know if we're close to a new declaration or not. Even if I were closely monitoring, there are signs that they did over-forecast and actually reduced bookable inventory at least once since opening.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It's often the other way around: the room is added to inventory for future booking dates based on forecasted sales and declarations, months (usually 11) before the formal declaration. Then, later, the formal declaration roughly coincides with the date where expanded inventory was.

Totally hypothetically (i'm even going to use dates that don't exist):

• On March 30th of year N, the inventory made available for booking 11m out on February 30th, N+1 is 25 rooms in a category.
  • Prior days have been 25, for some time.
• The next day, on March 31st of year N, the inventory made available for February 31st, N+1 is increased to 30 rooms in a category.
  • Future dates are also 30, for some time.
• Those 30 rooms are booked by members in the following days/weeks/months.
• Around February 31st of year N+1, the official declaration paperwork is filed for those 5 rooms.

Said another way, if working backwards from declaration paperwork, it's often the case that the rooms that were added to inventory by the declaration were actually added to 'future inventory' 11 months ago.

It's very uncommon these days for there to be a mass inventory addition due to a declaration. It's only when their forecasting gets it wrong on the low-side, and they are very conservative (on the high-side) with their forecasts from what I can see.


I haven't been keeping up with 'future inventory' levels at VDH, so I don't know if we're close to a new declaration or not. Even if I were closely monitoring, there are signs that they did over-forecast and actually reduced bookable inventory at least once since opening.

Thanks. I was trying to size up my chances of getting my waitlist to come through for MM on 02/03. Maybe I should just buy a lottery ticket

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Thanks. I was trying to size up my chances of getting my waitlist to come through for MM on 02/03. Maybe I should just buy a lottery ticket

I’m there and hoping on a VGC waitlist to come through.

If I’m understanding @ehh correctly, the odds of additional inventory coming soon are very low unless there’s a fire sale.

 

[ehh]

I’m there and hoping on a VGC waitlist to come through.

If I’m understanding @ehh correctly, the odds of additional inventory coming soon are very low unless there’s a fire sale.

Yeah, the odds of a glut of inventory from a declaration are very low.

Better odds of an organic cancellation.