*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[WillAustin]

So great, those unresearched newbies that everybody praises the system for get 3 FP they may not have had otherwise. That doesn't mean they're any better off than they were before.

No, and I don't believe it will ultimately result in more satisfied guests either.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

I guess I just don't see how people who didn't understand the FP- system before are going to magically use the FP+ to the fullest. Those are the people who certain people keep celebrating the FP+ system for, the family who waited in stand by all day on their first vacation because they didn't know better, the family who now is going to have more rides instead of less. If they couldn't figure out FP-, how does anybody expect them to figure out which rides to use FP+ for and when?

Those are the people that quick picks or whatever they're called are made for. Those are the people who are going to walk up to Mickey's Philharmagic at 9:30 AM, FP+ in hand (or on wrist?), because their kids wanted to see it, not knowing they could have just walked up and watched it instead. They're the same people who were standing behind me in line for Disney Jr last month, the family who at 1:00 PM looked at their map, saw TSMM, and decided they would go there next.

I know there are many first time (or more) visitors who don't fall into that category and do plenty of research, but those people would have been just fine figuring out FP-. So great, those unresearched newbies that everybody praises the system for get 3 FP they may not have had otherwise. That doesn't mean they're any better off than they were before.

Disney is not helping them figure out which FP+ to pick. And they're going to have a lot hard time correcting their mistakes for day 2 of their vacation if most of the headliner fastpasses for the entire week have already been booked. Meanwhile, their FP+ for non-headliners are making standby lines longer for everyone, especially on attractions where FP+ seems to decrease ride-loading efficiency. Wasn't that exactly why Potc, HM, and Small World didn't have or no longer had legacy FP?

 

[cgates616]

And yes, I also liked that waking up early, being smart, and putting in some work made my family's vacation better. Just like life in general.

^This. A thousand times THIS!!!

 

[Shaden]

Disney is not helping them figure out which FP+ to pick. And they're going to have a lot hard time correcting their mistakes for day 2 of their vacation if most of the headliner fastpasses for the entire week have already been booked. Meanwhile, their FP+ for non-headliners are making standby lines longer for everyone, especially on attractions where FP+ seems to decrease ride-loading efficiency. Wasn't that exactly why Potc, HM, and Small World didn't have or no longer had legacy FP?

I do wonder if we will see results from this sentiment.

So I let Disney pick my FP+s, great, they should know what they are doing.

But when I went up to Lilo and stich, and people mover, and hall of presidents (can you FP THAT ??? hahaha) ... there was no line to Fast pass. But then when we went to SM, Thunder, Splash, there were huge lines and people just kept skipping them with their FPs (after they got through the line outside ) ....

And then, yes, scramble to change FPs, see the headliners are book, and actually feel more angry about it than anything ...

That would have been us our first trip. We saw the FPs, figured it out real quick, and started FPing our way through the parks. No research necessary.

FP+ ... we probably would have locked in to whatever was given, and then been really angry when we got there.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Good read here...and frighteningly similar to what appears to be happening...on one scale or another.

New Coke...

http://imcetys.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/caso-newcoke.pdf

 

[Shaden]

Good read here...and frighteningly similar to what appears to be happening...on one scale or another.

New Coke...

http://imcetys.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/caso-newcoke.pdf

GREAT read, and hints at one of the questions we keep asking here ...

What is Disney's 80/20 rule ???

I don't think it could really be 80/20. For those that don't read I don't think 20% of Disney guests could represent 80% of their business. .... But it could be something LIKE that ....

Now while people yell and scream that DisBoards represents less than 1% of WDW guests, and that is certainly true, there has to be a considerable percentage of guests that are repeats and are indeed "savvy" and were FP- "savvy".

I wonder how they feel about this .... Even if we split those who love it/hate it 50/50. If something like the New Coke 80/20 rule was true for WDW ... anywhere near true, and if half of those "20" lost their love for WDW due to FP+ or even scaled back their spending, that would be a serious loss for WDW in revenue.

 

[cgates616]

Good read here...and frighteningly similar to what appears to be happening...on one scale or another.

New Coke...

http://imcetys.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/caso-newcoke.pdf

"In other words, most consumers simply had no idea that their preferences were helping the Coca Cola company to decide whether it should introduce a new formula for Coke. If informed of the full ramifications of their preferences- in other words, a vote for new Coke also meant choosing to get rid of the old, standard Coca Cola – perhaps many consumers, moved by an emotional attachment to the familiar drink, would have registered a preference for the old Coke."
This is a portion of the article that REALLY hit home with me. In Sept 2012, my family was selected for a test of FP+. It sounded great. We made our 4 selections and got our blue fast pass plus cards a few weeks later. We came, we saw, we had the best visit ever! We were able to pre-book select attractions AND use the existing fast pass system. Holy crap, does it get any better? After our trip, we received a questionnaire about our fast pass + experience and we gave it rave reviews. If they would have even indicated that they were intending to do away with paper fast passes our reaction would have been much different. We thought this was an addition to the fast pass experience, not a replacement.

 

[Davey Jones II]

"In other words, most consumers simply had no idea that their preferences were helping the Coca Cola company to decide whether it should introduce a new formula for Coke. If informed of the full ramifications of their preferences- in other words, a vote for new Coke also meant choosing to get rid of the old, standard Coca Cola – perhaps many consumers, moved by an emotional attachment to the familiar drink, would have registered a preference for the old Coke."
This is a portion of the article that REALLY hit home with me. In Sept 2012, my family was selected for a test of FP+. It sounded great. We made our 4 selections and got our blue fast pass plus cards a few weeks later. We came, we saw, we had the best visit ever! We were able to pre-book select attractions AND use the existing fast pass system. Holy crap, does it get any better? After our trip, we received a questionnaire about our fast pass + experience and we gave it rave reviews. If they would have even indicated that they were intending to do away with paper fast passes our reaction would have been much different. We thought this was an addition to the fast pass experience, not a replacement.

Funny how they left out that little detail.

 

[bcrook]

Good read here...and frighteningly similar to what appears to be happening...on one scale or another.

New Coke...

http://imcetys.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/caso-newcoke.pdf

That was enlightening.

Disney obviously misread their fan base, the outcry has been much too high. They may have made quite a few of the same mistakes in their Data collection as coca-cola.

But they compounded the problem with terrible IT development, the most clandestine, ridiculous roll out, and they jumped the gun on the project by not addressing the lack of capacity problems first. They are also guilty of not training their cast members properly in advance (I guess that is a byproduct of trying keep everything secretive).

In the process of charging everyone full price for their testing phase, they raised prices regularly.

If 80/20 rule applies to wdw, they better start building Star Wars Park right now to undo the damage. I don't think the super long rides at the 1 minute long mine train is going to be enough.

 

[2Tiggies]

So great, those unresearched newbies that everybody praises the system for get 3 FP they may not have had otherwise. That doesn't mean they're any better off than they were before.

Funny thing is, they are the ones who are likely to only find out about FP+ at the last minute and end up not getting the full benefit of it in any event. Another consideration is that first timers who have not done any research at all show up and often have a great time because they have nothing to compare it to. So although they won't miss the old system, they aren't likely to appreciate the new one.

 

[magicbob]

Remember the good old days, when it was just a handful of "negative nellie naysayers" and "haters" predicting all of this was the inevitable outcome?

Interesting to see how people's actual experiences line up so precisely with those predictions that were scoffed at.

I think it's time for Sheldon to make an appearance.

And before someone chimes in that lots of people like FP+, I'd remind you that we DID predict that some would like it. Regardless of the subjective like/dislike debate... the objective, factual, reality of the effects of this system on thousands of guests are an uncanny reflection of past predictions. That's because those predictions were based on math and not emotion BTW.

Realizing that there aren't enough slices of pie to go around (and stating so) makes someone a "realist" not a "hater."

The impact on touring strategy is immense. Sure, RD/EMH may still be viable. But even those are seeing more traffic and longer waits due to FP+. And since you are limited to three (3=1 in most parks), you are stuck in SB the rest of the time. Not only is it little consolation to know that others are waiting less, it's also a fallacy. They are waiting less for that particular ride, but they (like me) only have THREE FP+s, so they are stuck in SB on everything else just like I am. And as PPs have pointed out, the very people that are supposedly helped by the rationing of FP (unsavvy first timers) are the most likely to still get the shaft.

One of the biggest impacts this has had is that it seems ALL established touring strategies are tossed out the window because they can no longer be counted on to reliably produce the same results they used to. That uncertainty is the source of much of the angst surrounding FP+ (that and the all-too-real "worst trip ever" reports).

 

[Squidgyness]

Good read here...and frighteningly similar to what appears to be happening...on one scale or another.

New Coke...

http://imcetys.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/caso-newcoke.pdf

That is so eerily similar to this situation.

Misleading/exaggerated evidence suggesting a change has to be made?

Most definitely. Did they even need to compete? Were universal guests taking large slices out of Disney attendance and revenue? Figures released by Disney themselves indicated rising attendances year on year afaik, and definitely rising revenues and profits. I don't know what evidence they had that they needed to completely rip out major infrastructure to compete with universal as opposed to investing in additional rides and infrastructure in the parks, but whoever advised something so radical was taking a heck of a gamble.

I doubt the lost extra guests amounted to billions of dollars, and I doubt they couldn't have won many more guests by using traditional, proven methods of increasing the attractiveness of the park. This seems a step too far, much like New Coke.

Misleading tests/market research?

You better believe it. Not telling the whole story, not testing the final system on more than a minority of guests (and apparently there are still a few more iterations of this new system to go, to believe insiders!), varying sample sizes etc. = misleading impressions.

The 80/20 rule?

I think there is truth in this. We don't know the exact figure but it seems obvious to me that certain people account for a larger share of profits than others, as in almost all businesses.

Not to mention the loyalty factor - this is more than just people returning to give money, it is people telling their friends to go, wearing Disney memorabilia, spreading Disney stuff on social media... the publicity and marketing of a core fan base is both negligible in cost and invaluable to a company. (Not to mention a form of insurance for any lean periods ahead.)

The parallels are disturbing. Hopefully it turns out to be even more similar and Disney do a U-turn... we could get "classic FP" back

 

[catra121]

I think this was an interesting article...and it certainly gives you a good idea of what IS happening in the parks...but not so much WHY it is happening in the parks. FP+ is certainly one factor...but it's not the whole story. All of what follows is pure speculation pulled from thin air (not trying to represent FACTS)...just trying to point out that there are other things that COULD be impacting these wait times besides just FP+.

Another factor could be how much the rides are going down. When I was there in September...POTC went down a LOT while we were there...often for 10 minutes or less...but sometimes for longer. That has GOT to affect wait times throughout the day as the people who would have ridden throughout the day are now waiting during shorter periods of operation AND the people who stuck it out and continued to wait while the ride was down are now also waiting 10 minutes longer than if it had been working continuously. Is this happening at all rides? No...but is it happening enough at several to affect the wait times of others? Maybe/

There also COULD be differences in park attendance. Not saying there is (because I don't know)...but generally I have felt over the past few years that every time I go it's busier than the last time I was there during the same time period. And even if overall park attendance isn't up...park attendance for a particular park could be up (again...COULD be...not saying it is) and that could be a factor as well in wait times.

And what about park hopping...maybe because of price increases there are fewer people park hopping. So where they would have hopped to a different park for dinner or an evening show...they are now staying in the same park. This could also lead to increased wait times as many people saw certain parks as only half day parks and now may be skipping them entirely. They're also spending what would have been "travel time" between parks IN the parks now. Or maybe they're spending more time at their resorts and it has zero impact...but it's an unknown.

The new credit card hold on ADRs could have an impact as well. People may be making fewer reservations at TS restaurants because of the policy...eating at fewer TS restaurants as a result...and spending more time in the parks.

We also don't KNOW if rides are operating at the same capacities as last year. I don't know why they wouldn't be...but the truth is that I don't know whether they are or not and IF they are not...I wouldn't know the reason for that.

And then there are a million other things that could also be impacting wait times that I don't have a clue about. Or all of this could be the result of JUST FP+...I'm just skeptical of that because things are rarely ever that simple.

 

[Squidgyness]

I think this was an interesting article...and it certainly gives you a good idea of what IS happening in the parks...but not so much WHY it is happening in the parks. FP+ is certainly one factor...but it's not the whole story. All of what follows is pure speculation pulled from thin air (not trying to represent FACTS)...just trying to point out that there are other things that COULD be impacting these wait times besides just FP+.

No doubt there are. I doubt a single factor has ever been responsible for such major change - but FP+ seems to be the biggest factor IMO.

Another factor could be how much the rides are going down. When I was there in September...POTC went down a LOT while we were there...often for 10 minutes or less...but sometimes for longer. That has GOT to affect wait times throughout the day as the people who would have ridden throughout the day are now waiting during shorter periods of operation AND the people who stuck it out and continued to wait while the ride was down are now also waiting 10 minutes longer than if it had been working continuously. Is this happening at all rides? No...but is it happening enough at several to affect the wait times of others? Maybe/

See... this can be related to a cutting back of maintenance budgets/lack of maintenance. Why cut the budgets? Well, if you were paying for massive new IT systems and changes to a basic aspect of the park... FP+ strikes again! (Though once again, probably not the ONLY factor here.)

There also COULD be differences in park attendance. Not saying there is (because I don't know)...but generally I have felt over the past few years that every time I go it's busier than the last time I was there during the same time period. And even if overall park attendance isn't up...park attendance for a particular park could be up (again...COULD be...not saying it is) and that could be a factor as well in wait times.

Indeed, if park attendance is up significantly this might impact. But to my eyes it would need to go up by 5+% to have such an effect. I doubt it's been so radical. And if it has...

If only they had major new areas of the park and new headliner rides to soak up the extra people. That would require investment though, and if you were paying for a certain system... Oh look! It's FP+ again!

And what about park hopping...maybe because of price increases there are fewer people park hopping. So where they would have hopped to a different park for dinner or an evening show...they are now staying in the same park. This could also lead to increased wait times as many people saw certain parks as only half day parks and now may be skipping them entirely. They're also spending what would have been "travel time" between parks IN the parks now. Or maybe they're spending more time at their resorts and it has zero impact...but it's an unknown.

Quite possibly. I suppose this might even be related to a certain system currently preventing people from booking fastpasses at two parks in the same day... Darn it! FP+ strikes again!

The new credit card hold on ADRs could have an impact as well. People may be making fewer reservations at TS restaurants because of the policy...eating at fewer TS restaurants as a result...and spending more time in the parks.

Now this one, perhaps. But... I doubt the effects of this would be so radical tbh. Unless attendance at TS has fallen 20+%, I couldn't see THAT big of an effect... we'd need more figures to know, I can't really speculate too much since I never used TS.

We also don't KNOW if rides are operating at the same capacities as last year. I don't know why they wouldn't be...but the truth is that I don't know whether they are or not and IF they are not...I wouldn't know the reason for that.

Someone earlier mentioned that it might be due to the way they have the balance of guests (FP vs. Standby) set up. Yet again, we see FP+!

And then there are a million other things that could also be impacting wait times that I don't have a clue about. Or all of this could be the result of JUST FP+...I'm just skeptical of that because things are rarely ever that simple.

Answers in bold. Long story short, it probably isn't just FP+, but I think it is mostly FP+, or can be related to it.

 

[FlipHipster]

FP wait times are also now longer. The have to be if more people are using FP+ and it takes longer to get through the first scan point. It also has to take longer to get through the first checkpoint because they are building FP+ queue areas outside the rides.

In addition to more people using FP. More people = line. It's not magical. If everyone is in the FP line, you have priority over no one, there is going to be a line. Even if they remove the scanners completely, you can still only load so many people on a ride at a time. It doesn't matter whether they come in the left door, the right door or rappel in from the ceiling.

 

[2Tiggies]

In addition to more people using FP. More people = line. It's not magical. If everyone is in the FP line, you have priority over no one, there is going to be a line. Even if they remove the scanners completely, you can still only load so many people on a ride at a time. It doesn't matter whether they come in the left door, the right door or rappel in from the ceiling.

Effectively, all they have done is reversed the ratio and the FP line is the new standby line, only you need an active appointment to be able to get into it. What was formerly the regular line and known as the standby line has now become a real standby line and you ride subject to availability. Pretty much like not getting on a flight and sitting on standby in case another passenger with a reservation doesn't show up

 

[mom2rtk]

The parallels are disturbing. Hopefully it turns out to be even more similar and Disney do a U-turn... we could get "classic FP" back

But there's the rub. Coke could opt to put both "New Coke" and "Coca Cola Classic" on the shelves.

The FP genie is out of the bottle. I'm not sure it really CAN be put back in. The mere presence of FP+ changes everything.

I do think there are some adjustments that could be made to FP+ to mitigate the downsides. But that's all it would be. Damage control.

I totally agree with Bob's post that they need to get off their rears and get going on the ONE thing that can help....... something with the potential to really raise capacity.

 

[2Tiggies]

I totally agree with Bob's post that they need to get off their rears and get going on the ONE thing that can help....... something with the potential to really raise capacity.

Just making their minds up one way or another would be a good start! This is one of my biggest grievances with this whole system: There has been almost no communication leaving it open for guests to speculate and try anticipate what is going to happen. There is nothing that will unsettle people in general quite like the unknown, and this is especially true when you have a group of people who feel like they know how to work with a product very efficiently (pre change).

I have wondered if this is a planned part of the research for Disney's test. Dangling small pieces of vague information out there and skirting around questions in their many FAQ sections all over the place so that they can monitor the speculation and opinions of the guests as a building block for refining their new system.

 

[JimmyV]

The FP genie is out of the bottle. I'm not sure it really CAN be put back in. The mere presence of FP+ changes everything.

I do think there are some adjustments that could be made to FP+ to mitigate the downsides. But that's all it would be. Damage control.

I think that "Option A" of the Poll (Eligible for a new in-park FP once you use one of your pre-booked FPs) would put us pretty much back to where we were before. It would take some commando strategizing, but we would all adjust. (Unless we choose to sit by the pool until 2:00 ). For example, if you were going to Epcot, you would want to pre-book Soarin' or Test Track, and also pre-book Figment for 9:01, (or whatever FP eligible ride would get you in and out the fastest. I think that is Figment.) You would use your FP for Figment immediatley, and then, while you are on the ride, get out your smartphone and book another FP for the "biggie" for which you didn't already have a FP. So by 9:03, you would have both a TT and Soarin' FP to use during the day. Under the old system, you couldn't have one of each until later, because your return time or two hour window (which ever comes first) would not be as early as the time by which you would become eligible for your fourth FP under the new system. Of course, there is no guarantee that this is the way they would go. But our own poll here is trending at 80% that way, so I would hope that Disney's is as well. Of course, the great irony here is that were this to happen, the 9:00 Figment FP would become as hard to get as the Mine Train or TSM!!

 

[mom2rtk]

I think that "Option A" of the Poll (Eligible for a new in-park FP once you use one of your pre-booked FPs) would put us pretty much back to where we were before. It would take some commando strategizing, but we would all adjust. (Unless we choose to sit by the pool until 2:00 ). For example, if you were going to Epcot, you would want to pre-book Soarin' or Test Track, and also pre-book Figment for 9:01, (or whatever FP eligible ride would get you in and out the fastest. I think that is Figment.) You would use your FP for Figment immediatley, and then, while you are on the ride, get out your smartphone and book another FP for the "biggie" for which you didn't already have a FP. So by 9:03, you would have both a TT and Soarin' FP to use during the day. Under the old system, you couldn't have one of each until later, because your return time or two hour window (which ever comes first) would not be as early as the time by which you would become eligible for your fourth FP under the new system. Of course, there is no guarantee that this is the way they would go. But our own poll here is trending at 80% that way, so I would hope that Disney's is as well. Of course, the great irony here is that were this to happen, the 9:00 Figment FP would become as hard to get as the Mine Train or TSM!!

That would be a step in the right direction. But once everyone books their three, I just don't have a lot of faith that there will be much headliner capacity left. Once offsite and APs get online with the current system, we'll have a better idea of how that is running.

My beef with the whole thing is that it seems like such a silly game to have to start choosing to use a FP at park open just to SEE if there's anything else left to even get.