*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[FlipHipster]

This is exactly what's described in the MyMagic+ patents.

Guest Experience Engine © You don't need to know anything Disney already knows what you want to do.

 

[MrInfinity]

Right. Say we rode 6 rides with FP- and waited an average of 10 minutes in each line. That's 60 minutes. Now, I ride 3 rides with wait of 10 (lets just hope it's only that) and 3 others with waits of 40 minutes each. That's 150 minutes.

But I have more time now to spend money on things in the park?? Is this new math or something cause I'm not getting it.

You're clearly worse off. You were one of the few who used FP- effectively, and everyone who used to maximize FP- will have to wait along w everyone else.

But, all the masses of ppl getting to go on ahead of you are spending less time than they used to. I know that's no consolation to think "Oh, good for them they're getting on quickly - I'll be their wait time is significantly reduced". But that's what it is.

Before, you were going on 6 rides and waiting 10 minutes, while countless other ppl were standing in line for 50 to get even their first ride. Altho your total wait time is up, MOST people's wait times will be down.

You have to remember that so many people that used to tour in ways that we consider downright inefficient and wasteful and used to wait their days away now get on 3 rides as fast as the best commando does. That is so good for them. (again, that's no consolation for you)

 

[White_Sox_Fan]

Of course Disney could also see you've ridden Space Mountain three times and send you text stating "Hey buddy ease up, how about giving someone else a chance?"

 

[NavyDad]

If you really think FP+ in itself is brining in more and more profitable customers I'd love hear specifics. I'm very aware how large corporations work. Also, there are several articles that point out some of the internal turmoil over the poor rollout of FP+. So far it's not being viewed as a success other than in the PR spin.

You can't just just look at FP+ itself without the greater context of the whole system. The combination of more efficient Queueing with being able to micro-target specific products to specific customers and giving a broader group of customers an incentive to stay in a park all day(along with knowing who is going to be in what park what day) is what is going to allow them to maximize revenue streams and increase margins.

It is basically the same concept of the high end grocery stores: Give them a portable scanner that can be tracked throughout certain areas of the store. Offer them a discount on bread because your data says that this type of customer is likely to spend 30% more on condiments when they buy bread. Give them a coupon on something they are very likely to buy but give them a limited window which gives them an incentive to be in your store on a certain day. Let them scan all of their items as they shop so they can check out quicker because you have data that says your customers are 37% more likely to stop and buy a $5 cup of Caribu Coffee if they spend less than 8 minutes in line.

The "internal turmoil" I have seen has much more to do with short term logistical issues than can be fixed and not a question of the overal strategy.

If Disney is getting a broader selection of customers to use FP and they are responding to the incentive of reserving specific times at specific parks than the plan is already a success and will continue to be even if there are grumblings from loyal customers or "super-users".

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

You just exposed another flaw in your idea, that person who books a second vacation is not a newcomer willing to spend like the first time. And if he books a third, well then Iger and his minions will not be happy.

It's not that simple. Acquiring a new customer is more costly than just servicing a repeat customer, which impacts that profitability function. A repeat guest doesn't have to spend as much for Disney to make the same profit as with a new guest.

And that new customer -- unlike you or I -- would have a different set of expectations. They would be customers of the post-FP+ era. This loss of repeat customers that SOME people here portend would -- in theory -- be a one-time phenomenon: a loss of FP- lovers.

Again... these are just some random thoughts on this board. Disney is looking at real data, with more knowledge, and decision-makers have to live or die by how this shakes out -- they have every reason to maximize enjoyment for MOST guests. And they can adjust the system based upon feedback.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I'm not saying it's bad. Just very Big Brotherly.

Gotcha'. I'm more worried about the NSA and Google!

 

[MrInfinity]

But say, for the sake of argument, that I'm wrong about that. IF Disney honestly believes that first timers are more likely to return thanks to FP+ (at least in its current incarnation), then they are sadly delusional. One useful FP, plus two mostly useless ones, is a pittance. While it may be somewhat better than standing in nothing but standby lines all day, that's only true if the standby lines didn't get worse as a result. This and plenty of other threads have indicated that they HAVE worsened.

In any case, there's NO WAY they anticipated the current backlash!

I think you're missing the point. New guests are not going to return because of FP+. FP+ is just a tool. It's like saying guests will return because the bathrooms were clean. Well no. Of course not. Clean bathrooms are one nice feature of WDW, but it's not why you go back. You go back because you LOVE DISNEY WORLD. With all you experienced - the clean bathroom, the dirty bathroom, the CM that was nice, the CM that was mean, the time you waited an hour and the ride broke down and you got shafted, and the time FP+ worked for you or didn't work for you, you go back because ultimately Disney has what you want -- the characters, the rides, the movies, the connection, the love, the magic, whatever.

FP+ is just a tool for Disney to manage crowds and optimize profit -- given that these crowds are coming to Disney in droves.

 

[kittyab]

I am sure they will find a way to get people going through lines quicker.... that way can have more time spending money in the gift shops LOL!

 

[Davey Jones II]

I think you're missing the point. New guests are not going to return because of FP+. FP+ is just a tool. It's like saying guests will return because the bathrooms were clean. Well no. Of course not. Clean bathrooms are one nice feature of WDW, but it's not why you go back. You go back because you LOVE DISNEY WORLD. With all you experienced - the clean bathroom, the dirty bathroom, the CM that was nice, the CM that was mean, the time you waited an hour and the ride broke down and you got shafted, and the time FP+ worked for you or didn't work for you, you go back because ultimately Disney has what you want -- the characters, the rides, the movies, the connection, the love, the magic, whatever.

FP+ is just a tool for Disney to manage crowds and optimize profit -- given that these crowds are coming to Disney in droves.

Right, as I mentioned in an earlier post, it's the overall experience that will determine whether or not people decide to return to WDW. But you wrote "I believe Disney is okay losing a few to gain a bunch." How will FP+ gain them a bunch of visitors? One useful fast pass per day, coupled with longer overall wait times (probably) is going to gain them a bunch? No.

Again, FP+ is the marketing face of this data mining experiment. Yes, I call it an experiment because it may well be an overall money loser for Disney, thanks to continuing cost overruns, growing pains, and assorted tech glitches and screwups. Hell, after all these years, Disney's websites STILL have issues!

Let's do a little breakdown of what FP+ does and does not mean.

It DOES mean that many more people are using fast passes.

It DOES NOT mean that people are coming to WDW to experience the joy of FP+. People go to theme parks to experience everything those parks have to offer. That won't change because of a fancier reservation system.

It MIGHT mean that 50% of guests will have a slightly improved overall experience, because they got on a headliner faster than they would have in the past. Again, that depends on the overall net effect of FP+, which may well be negative.

It DOES NOT mean that people will change their reasons for deciding whether or not to come to WDW. First-timers tend to come to WDW because of its fame and world-wide reputation. Returning guests are more likely to plan their trip around the opening of new attractions.

Which bring us full circle, because to me, that is the real big picture here. That $1.5 billion could have, instead, bought a lot of great new attractions...

 

[redrosesix]

The problem is you've been making making the argument that Disney is happy to lose the multi-time attraction riders when that just isn't the case. Your whole argument is Disney is doing this for the first timers and those who like to mill around and buy coffee and souvenirs and soak up the atmosphere. It allows them to be more happy at the expense of the others who knew how to utilize the system that was being offered. What I'm saying is Disney does NOT want to lose anybody because they know the more people coming through the turnstyles (no matter how they tour the parks) the more money they will bring in.

But wait... you guys are forgetting the people, like us, that are in between the fp- uber-users and the first timers.

I've been to wdw with first timers every year -- team thing -- yes, they buy souvenirs but they don't care whether they get them at the Nike outlet or Disney. And they're the one who frown on wdw prices. They don't care whether their Mickey sweatshirt comes from Disney or Walmart, it's about convenience and price. While some of them want to stay onsite and do the whole Disney thing, most rent a car and Disney is just part of their first timer trip to Orlando, which may or may not include Universal, SeaWorld, Daytona, etc. Pin trading? Vinylmation? Nevermind -- their kids won't be back next year.

We, on the other hand, come every year. We're one of those families that got the bug somewhere into the second day of our first trip. Walking through our very first park, AK, we decided this would be an annual trip. Second year, that's when we started buying souvenirs -- hit DTD to buy my fave Mickey sweatshirt ever the night we arrived. Everyone in my family knows their Xmas presents just might have been bought at Disney -- and they are excited about what they get because it's their hobby as much as mine.

Seventh trip in, I was going to splurge and buy a sweater in Norway. But I ran out of time with all the FP+ running around and we never got to WS. It wasn't a magical time in Disney. However, we went to Universal and had an awesome time and spent a lot of money. We're staying onsite there next year.

I'm sure Disney knows this about their customers and I'm sure they probably thought they had us in the bag -- just didn't do enough to keep us there. I know they don't want to lose their repeat customers, but they may have overlooked us while trying to find customers elsewhere. But fans spend more than 1 time guests, and you have to make guests really happy to turn them into fans.

 

[ArwenMarie]

But it's not right to think return visitors or people who utilized FP- to it's fullest allowable extent are spending less in the parks. If that was the case then Disney would just get rid of annual passes. Do you really think Disney doesn't care about the passholder who spends 15K throughout the year WDW and cares more for the family coming to spend 10K in a single vacation? I believe a smart business person would want the full 25K, especially since there was available capacity in the parks and resorts to handle those two guests.

Oh, and Blockbuster went out of business because of online streaming. Your comparison is poor.

I agree, it's always safe to assume that Disney wants all of the money.

 

[Cyrano]

Folks the thread is drifting so may be moved to community unless you can keep it on track for TPAS

 

[magicbob]

I apologize if this has been stated already... to those who maintain that longer SB lines are offset by waiting less for FP lines... the thing missing from this analysis is that you only get 3 FP+. So, even if you are waiting less than you would have for those 3 rides, you are relegated to SB for everything else you ride all day. In the past, we saved time on those 3 rides (as well as the additional rides we FP'd) AND waited less for the "secondary" rides.

 

[DividedSky]

I apologize if this has been stated already... to those who maintain that longer SB lines are offset by waiting less for FP lines... the thing missing from this analysis is that you only get 3 FP+. So, even if you are waiting less than you would have for those 3 rides, you are relegated to SB for everything else you ride all day. In the past, we saved time on those 3 rides (as well as the additional rides we FP'd) AND waited less for the "secondary" rides.

I think it has been stated that on average, a guest was using 1.2 fp- a day

 

[JanaDee]

i think it has been stated that on average, a guest was using 1.2 fp- a day

2.5

 

[JimmyV]

Think of it this way. Before: 10,000 people a day could ride space mountain(I made that up for simplicity). 2,000 used FP and waited 5 minutes. 8,000 went standby and waited 40 minutes. That is 5,500 hours of wait time.

Now 6,667 are using FP+ and waiting 7 minutes and 3,333 are waiting 70. That is only 4,666 hours in line. That is 800+ hours less and 'wait times' almost doubled. You can buy a lot of funnel cakes in 800 hours.

I waited 22 minutes in the FP line. I entered the FP line with my back pressed up against the Astro Orbiter Elevator. Change "7" to "22" and re-do your math to see how it comes out.

but MOST people are not waiting AT ALL because they are using a FP+.

How I wish that were true. Our FP+ return waits ranged from 1-23 minutes with the average being around 14 and the median being around 17.

 

[2Tiggies]

I waited 22 minutes in the FP line. I entered the FP line with my back pressed up against the Astro Orbiter Elevator. Change "7" to "22" and re-do your math to see how it comes out.

How I wish that were true. Our FP+ return waits ranged from 1-23 minutes with the average being around 14 and the median being around 17.

When I look at reports of actual experiences like this (and there are a TON of them so I don't believe your experience is just an unlucky one, FWIW) it is clear that something is not right.

 

[lugnut33]

FP wait times are also now longer. The have to be if more people are using FP+ and it takes longer to get through the first scan point. It also has to take longer to get through the first checkpoint because they are building FP+ queue areas outside the rides.

 

[d-r]

You're clearly worse off. You were one of the few who used FP- effectively, and everyone who used to maximize FP- will have to wait along w everyone else.

But, all the masses of ppl getting to go on ahead of you are spending less time than they used to. I know that's no consolation to think "Oh, good for them they're getting on quickly - I'll be their wait time is significantly reduced". But that's what it is.

Before, you were going on 6 rides and waiting 10 minutes, while countless other ppl were standing in line for 50 to get even their first ride. Altho your total wait time is up, MOST people's wait times will be down.

You have to remember that so many people that used to tour in ways that we consider downright inefficient and wasteful and used to wait their days away now get on 3 rides as fast as the best commando does. That is so good for them. (again, that's no consolation for you)

"most people" get three rides. And two of them are probably something that you never had to wait long for anway. This isn't really a plus for the joe blow folks that are coming to the park on a one-day ticket, the people who would have been waiting all day in the 50 minute lines. It is a plus for sleeping in at the contemporary and strolling over when your time is ready.

There are still the same number of seats in a ride, and the same throughput per hour, the same amount of time that it takes to load and unload. They didn't add a magic train to thunder mountain or anything.

They are giving out more fast passes now, and it takes longer to get people through the fast pass line and the fast pass line is longer and that makes the standby line back up because they have to let more fast passes through.

 

[morethananyonex]

I guess I just don't see how people who didn't understand the FP- system before are going to magically use the FP+ to the fullest. Those are the people who certain people keep celebrating the FP+ system for, the family who waited in stand by all day on their first vacation because they didn't know better, the family who now is going to have more rides instead of less. If they couldn't figure out FP-, how does anybody expect them to figure out which rides to use FP+ for and when?

Those are the people that quick picks or whatever they're called are made for. Those are the people who are going to walk up to Mickey's Philharmagic at 9:30 AM, FP+ in hand (or on wrist?), because their kids wanted to see it, not knowing they could have just walked up and watched it instead. They're the same people who were standing behind me in line for Disney Jr last month, the family who at 1:00 PM looked at their map, saw TSMM, and decided they would go there next.

I know there are many first time (or more) visitors who don't fall into that category and do plenty of research, but those people would have been just fine figuring out FP-. So great, those unresearched newbies that everybody praises the system for get 3 FP they may not have had otherwise. That doesn't mean they're any better off than they were before.