*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[*disgal*]

I really don't believe that Disney would be foolish enough to willfully alienate their core loyal, repeat customers. To some extent, I think that is happening, but it is a highly unintended consequence of the FP+ rollout.

Others in this thread offered much more plausible explanations concerning Disney's rationale. The company probably thought they would gain those aforementioned benefits (longer stays, more people staying onsite) and, in their usual arrogance, just assumed that repeat guests would just suck it up.

In any case, I still say their priorities are screwed up, and they could have made much better use of that money.

As for the effect of FP+ on first-time visitors... I doubt that it will make guests more likely to return. One measly FP for a headliner, coupled with two for attractions which seldom need a FP, is not likely to intice people to spend another 5K anytime soon.

Guests come back to WDW if they had a great overall experience, if they can afford to come back, and if repeating their experience trumps other destinations. That's a lot of ifs, which might explain the many once-in-a-lifetime visitors. And if the WDC is as cynical as you say, why would they care what one-timers think, since they already got their money?

THIS!! I think Disney makes some mistakes sometimes but I don't think they are stupid! Catering to a one-time-in-5-years guest and not to a once a year-or-more guest is....stupid.

I think you understand me, yes. I believe Disney is okay losing a few to gain a bunch. I've also made the case that the few they will lose is VERY few. And I've also made the case that Disney has surely studied this intensely and anticipates exactly the number they believe they will lose -- and they have masses of data on this that supports their business strategy which we are not privy to.

Multi-time attraction riders are simply not as profitable for Disney. When a ride doesn't even have the capacity to get each guest on once per day, why do you feel you should get to go 7 times. Or more accurately, why do you feel Disney shouldn't reallocate your 7 ridings to accommodate 7 guests instead of just you.

Because they aren't communists?

 

[johde]

This should definitely be a better understood point. The parks and resorts aren't full, so losing any loyal customers is a net negative for Disney. The argument that there are always new guests to take the place of the ones that might be lost isn't a sound business strategy and frankly doesn't hold much water anyway.

I also don't think Disney has the data to know exactly what they are doing and how it will shake out. I think a lot of this a more a shot in the dark than many people might believe.

The parks and resorts may not be full, but they are as full as they have ever been. Back in early Feb. Iger announced that 3 of the 4 parks had record attendance. I have estimated attendance figures for most of WDWs history and that probably means MK topped 18million visitors (1991 Record), DHS topped 10.4 million (1997 record), and DAK topped 9.9 million (2012 record). Epcot's record I know of is 14 million in 1991. It hasn't come anywhere close since.

You can see it in this graph. Unfortunately for 1983 - 1990 I don't have individual park data for some years or any data for other years.



With the economy improving, I'm sure they are trying to entice more profitable guests to the park even if that means losing a few faithful but low profit margin guests along the way.

 

[TimothyG]

Disney didn't spend a billion dollars on fp+. They spent a billion dollars on mm+ to get the data mining they want. fp+ is simply their way of selling mm+ to the public.

You're right. They didn't spend a billion on FP+ specifically. I did oversimplify the entire MM+ project down to that and that was an incorrect assertion of mine. However, as a software engineer myself, I can't see how it wouldn't be a significant business cost to implement FP+.

 

[Angel Ariel]

You're right. They didn't spend a billion on FP+ specifically. I did oversimplify the entire MM+ project down to that and that was an incorrect assertion of mine. However, as a software engineer myself, I can't see how it wouldn't be a significant business cost to implement FP+.

I didn't say it wasn't a significant cost, I'm sure it was. I was more responding to the endgame being FP+, which you agreed it isn't. The endgame is the data mining. FP+ is how Disney gets guests to go along with the MBs in order to get the data they want. It isn't about fairness or equality as many here state over and over again. Of the few public statements Disney has made regarding FP+, they've made it clear their intent is to get people to lock in their time onsite at Disney.

 

[WillAustin]

Ummm... have you ever been on an earning call? Those types of things are said all of the time.

Every major business in the world is more than willing to lose a certain percentage of their most loyal customers if they feel they can gain a certain percentage of more profitable customers.

It's called a trade-off. Companies do this all the time. The ones that don't, like Blockbuster, go out of business.

At this point I understand I am wasting my time trying to explain this but large profitable companies don't make huge investments like this to make things better for their top 1% or 5% or even 15% of most loyal customers. They do it to create new revenue streams or maximize under-tapped revenue streams. Disney is using Queueing methods and micro-targeting to do this.

I've been on these boards for 5 years and have read so many claims that the food and merchandise at Disney are getting so bad every year that people are reducing how much money they are going to spend on shopping and Dining. They cite the fact that their Brother's Sister in Law's cousin goes twice a year and this year is only doing one trip and they are going to pack their own lunches to save money.

The funny thing that over the last decade Disney Parks have more than doubled both their Gross Revenue and their Net Income. In just the last 5 years they have increased Net Income by around 60%. Every corporation in the world would take this numbers and laugh all the way to the bank.

These people don't just take "shots in the dark" that lose money. Read about Whole Foods, Harris Teater, Costco and Wal-mart and you will find out how increased efficiency and micro-targeting are making these companies hugely profitable.

I get that certain people don't like these changes because they will "get less". It's normal human nature to protect your turf - we all do it.

If you really think FP+ in itself is brining in more and more profitable customers I'd love hear specifics. I'm very aware how large corporations work. Also, there are several articles that point out some of the internal turmoil over the poor rollout of FP+. So far it's not being viewed as a success other than in the PR spin.

 

[*disgal*]

Again with the assertion that those who like to ride attractions a lot (whether it's many - not some, many - different ones or the the same one multiple times) must not be spending money. I'd love to know where your facts on that are coming from. There have already been quite a few "Fp optimizers" on this thread who've specifically said that that optimization is what gave them the time to do all of those extras.

Enjoying many rides ≠ not spending money on extra experiences

Right. Say we rode 6 rides with FP- and waited an average of 10 minutes in each line. That's 60 minutes. Now, I ride 3 rides with wait of 10 (lets just hope it's only that) and 3 others with waits of 40 minutes each. That's 150 minutes.

But I have more time now to spend money on things in the park?? Is this new math or something cause I'm not getting it.

 

[lugnut33]

Ummm... have you ever been on an earning call? Those types of things are said all of the time.

Every major business in the world is more than willing to lose a certain percentage of their most loyal customers if they feel they can gain a certain percentage of more profitable customers.

It's called a trade-off. Companies do this all the time. The ones that don't, like Blockbuster, go out of business.

At this point I understand I am wasting my time trying to explain this but large profitable companies don't make huge investments like this to make things better for their top 1% or 5% or even 15% of most loyal customers. They do it to create new revenue streams or maximize under-tapped revenue streams. Disney is using Queueing methods and micro-targeting to do this.

I've been on these boards for 5 years and have read so many claims that the food and merchandise at Disney are getting so bad every year that people are reducing how much money they are going to spend on shopping and Dining. They cite the fact that their Brother's Sister in Law's cousin goes twice a year and this year is only doing one trip and they are going to pack their own lunches to save money.

The funny thing that over the last decade Disney Parks have more than doubled both their Gross Revenue and their Net Income. In just the last 5 years they have increased Net Income by around 60%. Every corporation in the world would take this numbers and laugh all the way to the bank.

These people don't just take "shots in the dark" that lose money. Read about Whole Foods, Harris Teater, Costco and Wal-mart and you will find out how increased efficiency and micro-targeting are making these companies hugely profitable.

I get that certain people don't like these changes because they will "get less". It's normal human nature to protect your turf - we all do it.

But it's not right to think return visitors or people who utilized FP- to it's fullest allowable extent are spending less in the parks. If that was the case then Disney would just get rid of annual passes. Do you really think Disney doesn't care about the passholder who spends 15K throughout the year WDW and cares more for the family coming to spend 10K in a single vacation? I believe a smart business person would want the full 25K, especially since there was available capacity in the parks and resorts to handle those two guests.

Oh, and Blockbuster went out of business because of online streaming. Your comparison is poor.

 

[Mac4life30]

Perhaps there hoping people will see the long wait and walk away. Not ride anything and spend money, I do agree it makes no sense that this system was created so guest would spend less time waiting and more buying. Yet all we do now is wait

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Right. Say we rode 6 rides with FP- and waited an average of 10 minutes in each line. That's 60 minutes. Now, I ride 3 rides with wait of 10 (lets just hope it's only that) and 3 others with waits of 40 minutes each. That's 150 minutes.

But I have more time now to spend money on things in the park?? Is this new math or something cause I'm not getting it.

To the extent that this is the notion, I suspect they don't have you in mind - more like the people who roll into the park at 11am and wait 30min (or more!) for each of their 6 rides (using your example). They can knock those people down from 180min to maybe 120min, giving them more time for other things... like shopping, perhaps.

People like them > people like you (and me)

And maybe with that much more magical an experience, they might convert some of these one-timers to repeat guests. Just one guess, one scenario. Clearly Disney is making its decisions with a lot more data and analysis, and a full big-picture and long-term approach.

 

[WillAustin]

But it's not right to think return visitors or people who utilized FP- to it's fullest allowable extent are spending less in the parks. If that was the case then Disney would just get rid of annual passes. Do you really think Disney doesn't care about the passholder who spends 15K throughout the year WDW and cares more for the family coming to spend 10K in a single vacation? I believe a smart business person would want the full 25K, especially since there was available capacity in the parks and resorts to handle those two guests.

Agreed.

From a business perspective, MyMagic+ is all about these things:

1. Data mining
2. Locking as many guests as possible into the parks in advance
3. Possibly re-directing guests toward "under-utilized" attractions

Interactive experiences and saying people are excited about booking a Teacup in advance are just window dressing. It's not about truly "plussing" the guest experience. It's fine if that is an ultimate by-product, that's not the main purpose of the changes. It's much more likely they'll be addressing unintended negative consequences for quite a long time.

As it stands right now, Disney is in the behavior modeling stages. This is the part that is a "shot in the dark". They didn't know how people will respond or how many FPs they'd be able to ultimately end up offering everyone. They still don't know.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

But it's not right to think return visitors or people who utilized FP- to it's fullest allowable extent are spending less in the parks. If that was the case then Disney would just get rid of annual passes. Do you really think Disney doesn't care about the passholder who spends 15K throughout the year WDW and cares more for the family coming to spend 10K in a single vacation? I believe a smart business person would want the full 25K, especially since there was available capacity in the parks and resorts to handle those two guests.

Disney basically seeks to maximize a function like this: (# Guest Type 1 x Profit from Guest Type 1) + (# Guest Type 2 x Profit from Guest Type 2) + (# Guest Type 3 x Profit from Guest Type 3)+...

It's not a question of not "caring" about Guest Type 1 (e.g. pass holder and annual visitor), or any particular guest type. If Disney loses 1 $15K/yr guest but gains 2 $10K guests each year, that's a net gain. A better in park experience by a first-timer (less waiting that THEY would have done otherwise) may even entice them to book another trip -- convert them from a one-timer to a repeat guest.

We don't have the data or info to know how Disney has evaluated each of these tradeoffs -- but you can bet that they have. Any successful company does.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Agreed.

From a business perspective, MyMagic+ is all about these things:

1. Data mining
2. Locking as many guests as possible into the parks in advance
3. Possibly re-directing guests toward "under-utilized" attractions

Interactive experiences and saying people are excited about booking a Teacup in advance are just window dressing. It's not about truly "plussing" the guest experience. It's fine if that is an ultimate by-product, that's not the main purpose of the changes. It's much more likely they'll be addressing unintended negative consequences for quite a long time.

As it stands right now, Disney is in the behavior modeling stages. This is the part that is a "shot in the dark". They didn't know how people will respond or how many FPs they'd be able to ultimately end up offering everyone. They still don't know.

Correction: It's not JUST about truly "plussing" the guest experience. Their goal has to be to improve the experience for MOST guests -- like any successful business. Anything other than that is just nonsensical.

And AGAIN... they've built a very flexible system that they can adjust to reach this goal over time.

 

[White_Sox_Fan]

Agreed.

From a business perspective, MyMagic+ is all about these things:

1. Data mining
2. Locking as many guests as possible into the parks in advance
3. Possibly re-directing guests toward "under-utilized" attractions

^This. Disney just doing a little social engineering.

Who know where it will lead, maybe someday Disney will see that Sally Smith and her family are in the park and they are over in Fantasyland which is really crowded at the moment. However, Pirates is a little slow right now and Disney knows the Smith family rides that multiple times when they visit. So Disney sends a text to Sally telling her there is no wait right now at Pirates.

Of course, they can barely get the IT systems they have now to work correctly so .....

 

[lugnut33]

Disney basically seeks to maximize a function like this: (# Guest Type 1 x Profit from Guest Type 1) + (# Guest Type 2 x Profit from Guest Type 2) + (# Guest Type 3 x Profit from Guest Type 3)+...

It's not a question of not "caring" about Guest Type 1 (e.g. pass holder and annual visitor), or any particular guest type. If Disney loses 1 $15K/yr guest but gains 2 $10K guests each year, that's a net gain. A better in park experience by a first-timer (less waiting that THEY would have done otherwise) may even entice them to book another trip -- convert them from a one-timer to a repeat guest.

We don't have the data or info to know how Disney has evaluated each of these tradeoffs -- but you can bet that they have. Any successful company does.

You just exposed another flaw in your idea, that person who books a second vacation is not a newcomer willing to spend like the first time. And if he books a third, well then Iger and his minions will not be happy.

I just don't get how people are writing off any guests who visit. Who's to say that the passholder doesnt' some day end up booking a nice 10 day stay for his 50th birthday and invites along 30 family members. Why would Disney want to alienate that person? I'm just not buying any idea that Disney is happy to get rid of certain guests.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

^This. Disney just doing a little social engineering.

Who know where it will lead, maybe someday Disney will see that Sally Smith and her family are in the park and they are over in Fantasyland which is really crowded at the moment. However, Pirates is a little slow right now and Disney knows the Smith family rides that multiple times when they visit. So Disney sends a text to Sally telling her there is no wait right now at Pirates.

Of course, they can barely get the IT systems they have now to work correctly so .....

AWFUL! Question: Would that not IMPROVE Sally Smith's experience? Maybe make her and her family happier? Maybe even make them more likely to return?

 

[lugnut33]

^This. Disney just doing a little social engineering.

Who know where it will lead, maybe someday Disney will see that Sally Smith and her family are in the park and they are over in Fantasyland which is really crowded at the moment. However, Pirates is a little slow right now and Disney knows the Smith family rides that multiple times when they visit. So Disney sends a text to Sally telling her there is no wait right now at Pirates.

Of course, they can barely get the IT systems they have now to work correctly so .....

That is exactly the future plan for it, they said so in an article several years ago. I wish I had that article from the Orlando Sentinel. It was a huge cover story on the crowd control system they were implementing, which was part of the MM+ program.

 

[FlipHipster]

^This. Disney just doing a little social engineering.

Who know where it will lead, maybe someday Disney will see that Sally Smith and her family are in the park and they are over in Fantasyland which is really crowded at the moment. However, Pirates is a little slow right now and Disney knows the Smith family rides that multiple times when they visit. So Disney sends a text to Sally telling her there is no wait right now at Pirates.

Of course, they can barely get the IT systems they have now to work correctly so .....

No doubt things like this are discussed. I can think of hundreds of applications for that data. They will eventually get it working, its not rocket science.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

^This. Disney just doing a little social engineering.

Who know where it will lead, maybe someday Disney will see that Sally Smith and her family are in the park and they are over in Fantasyland which is really crowded at the moment. However, Pirates is a little slow right now and Disney knows the Smith family rides that multiple times when they visit. So Disney sends a text to Sally telling her there is no wait right now at Pirates.

Of course, they can barely get the IT systems they have now to work correctly so .....

That is exactly the future plan for it, they said so in an article several years ago. I wish I had that article from the Orlando Sentinel. It was a huge cover story on the crowd control system they were implementing, which was part of the MM+ program.

This is exactly what's described in the MyMagic+ patents.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I just don't get how people are writing off any guests who visit. Who's to say that the passholder doesnt' some day end up booking a nice 10 day stay for his 50th birthday and invites along 30 family members. Why would Disney want to alienate that person? I'm just not buying any idea that Disney is happy to get rid of certain guests.

No one said Disney would be "happy" to get rid of a certain guest type -- I certainly didn't. I'm one of those people -- pass holders who go minimum once per year. I don't feel alienated. It's a numbers game. We'll see how it shakes out, and Disney has every business interest in the world to maximize overall guest enjoyment. That may not maximize yours. But I'd be willing to bet that they manage to maximize their profitability function (which depends upon pleasing guests) -- that's the business they're in and it's pretty hard to argue with their success.

 

[White_Sox_Fan]

AWFUL! Question: Would that not IMPROVE Sally Smith's experience? Maybe make her and her family happier? Maybe even make them more likely to return?

I'm not saying it's bad. Just very Big Brotherly.