*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[2Tiggies]

So the goal is for people to have more time to spend money? On what? We already stay somewhere and eat so that is out. How long can we shop for generic souvenirs? (Admittedly another topic.)

See this is what I am trying to get my head around too. If I am 'bored' I don't go buy stuff to keep busy. I go find something to do. And if that something is not available in the park, I'm going to go somewhere else. Just because I'm at the pool does not mean I am going to be buying drinks from the bar. It means I am going to be doing the refill run for my rapid-fill mug if I want something to drink, or bringing bottled water (that I ordered to be delivered) from my room to take with me.

There is a limit to how much you can buy and eat in a week's trip if you are running into a shortage of attractions day after day by opting out of lines that are much longer than you expect them to be.

 

[Texas Crude]

So, according to Josh at Easywdw it appears that there have been some significant changes to the wait times.

In particular, increases to the wait times at secondary attractions. The result of FP+ ? How does this affect your touring strategy/ability ? Discuss !!!!



http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...times-at-disney-world-attractions/#more-13129

A much better data set than was used in previous analysis, which only used Disney posted wait times, and did not include the busy period in February.

Also interesting this still has no account of FP+ return time wait times. So, if SB waits are up, and FP+ waits are up ... what does this mean for FP+ and you ?

Well, since ride capacity remains unchanged, longer waits simply mean more people are experiencing the attractions than with FP-. While generally this should be viewed as a good thing, it obviously has a negative impact on those who were already experiencing plenty of attractions.

 

[Angel Ariel]

It is creating a situation in which doing such peripheral costly activities is more possible while still being able to quickly knock out some rides.

As much as the legacy FP- optimizers don't like to accept, they are simply not the most profitable for Disney to create a system for. Thus, the system is curtailed to the guests that are actually going to spend money on other things, and so Disney will make sure to get those ppl on rides, done w their rides, and off buying that $100 BBB, $100 boat ride, or $12 drinks at their pool.

What does Disney care if someone who would just ride Soarin 7 times doesn't get to do so? They're not spending money, they already paid for their AP, and all they're doing is riding Soarin.

I can't speak for anyone else, but as much as I may be considered a "fp - optimizer", that optimization gave me time to do all.the rides I wanted to AND do the fun extras, like tours and the 3d dessert parties, and drinking around thr world (responsibly, of course), character meals, etc. BBB will be on the schedule when DD is old enough as well. That's not to.mention dinners like CA grill, etc..we usually have one higher end TS/day.

Some seem to keep wanting to make this divide that if the rides are important to you, then these other extra activities aren't. I'm betting I'm not alone in being someone who plans the vacation to be both.

 

[2Tiggies]

Well, since ride capacity remains unchanged, longer waits simply mean more people are experiencing the attractions than with FP-. While generally this should be viewed as a good thing, it obviously has a negative impact on those who were already experiencing plenty of attractions.

.... or it could mean that the system is not working efficiently. It is slower. There is no question about that.

 

[MrInfinity]

I get that. But people are going to sit and think carefully in the future about renewing their AP's or purchasing more days on tickets, or doing Disney at all because of this. You will always have your one-time guests who just pay and go.

So what. If the least profitable customers stop going, that's no worse for Disney.

I know several people who have opted not to renew AP's and have personal friends who have canceled their trips for this year, some due to the system and the way they believe it is going to impact their trip, and others who just feel it's too much like hard work to plan what is going to be a very scheduled vacation.

If you, or anyone, was so lax to simply ditch Disney, you'd just do so. I don't like a store, I go across the street. I don't like red popsicles, next time I grab a blue. But Disney is not so easily discarded because they own the characters you love. Whether it's Mickey & Minnie, or Phineas & Ferb, or Frozen, Rapunzel, Ariel, or even Indiana Jones, Star Wars, and even Superman and Spiderman - Disney owns it all. There will be 3 HUGE new movies on Star Wars in the next 10 years. Are you REALLY going to avoid Disney World when HS gets rethemed in time w the release of these movies??

 

[mom2rtk]

I can't speak for anyone else, but as much as I may be considered a "fp - optimizer", that optimization gave me time to do all.the rides I wanted to AND do the fun extras, like tours and the 3d dessert parties, and drinking around thr world (responsibly, of course).

Some seem to keep wanting to make this divide that if the rides are important to you, then these other extra activities aren't. I'm betting I'm not alone in being someone who plans the vacation to be both.

Same for us. We did BBB and PL on our last trip. We had the dining plan but still paid out of pocket for a number of table service meals. We ate at BOG 4 times on our last trip. On another trip we ate CRT 3 separate times.

Some have seemed surprised that we are "fp-optimizers" since we love the parades, shows and characters so much. It was that "fp-optimization" that gave us time to do all the rides (and re-rides) we wanted while still having time to do all those other things.

 

[EMode]

I can't speak for anyone else, but as much as I may be considered a "fp - optimizer", that optimization gave me time to do all.the rides I wanted to AND do the fun extras, like tours and the 3d dessert parties, and drinking around thr world (responsibly, of course).

Some seem to keep wanting to make this divide that if the rides are important to you, then these other extra activities aren't. I'm betting I'm not alone in being someone who plans the vacation to be both.

You are definitely not alone, but Disney doesn't like me for another reason, I stick to a "spending" budget when I'm there. I know how much I'm going to spend in their parks before I arrive. FP+ is not going to get me to spend more because quite frankly I spend enough on my vacation already. All it is doing is making me feel the value of a Disney vacation is no longer worth it for my family

 

[2Tiggies]

So what. If the least profitable customers stop going, that's no worse for Disney.



If you, or anyone, was so lax to simply ditch Disney, you'd just do so. I don't like a store, I go across the street. I don't like red popsicles, next time I grab a blue. But Disney is not so easily discarded because they own the characters you love. Whether it's Mickey & Minnie, or Phineas & Ferb, or Frozen, Rapunzel, Ariel, or even Indiana Jones, Star Wars, and even Superman and Spiderman - Disney owns it all. There will be 3 HUGE new movies on Star Wars in the next 10 years. Are you REALLY going to avoid Disney World when HS gets rethemed in time w the release of these movies??

I've never said I'm going to avoid Disney. I simply said I was keeping my options open. Nobody gets a cheap Disney vacation. At some point you cross the line where you have to question whether you can justify what you're getting out of it vs what you've spent.

 

[practicallyperfect77]

You'd have a point if there were 10 headliners....but there aren't. Use your FP+ on the headliners and the remaining rides are not going to have daunting wait times...of course on Holiday weekends everything is going to have long lines. I'm looking forward to them allowing add on FP+s after you use your initial 3. That will solve some of this.

I would say MK does and since SM was the ride used in the example this is the park that came to mind. Definitely 10 if heaven forbid you want to ride a mountain twice.

In my perfect world, they would allow 1 prebooked and as many as you can get day of based on old rules. The folks that get to park late can still ride TSM, Soarin' or TT like they can now and RDers would be able to ride more. Unfortunately I'm not in charge.

 

[practicallyperfect77]

I've never said I'm going to avoid Disney. I simply said I was keeping my options open. Nobody gets a cheap Disney vacation. At some point you cross the line where you have to question whether you can justify what you're getting out of it vs what you've spent.

Heaven forbid you want value out of a $5k vacation.

 

[Texas Crude]

.... or it could mean that the system is not working efficiently. It is slower. There is no question about that.

This would only be the case if there are now more rides running empty than previously, which from everything I've heard is not the case. Rides have fixed capacity, and generally run continuously (except for mechanical issues, which i don't think are very often related to the FP+ queue).

I don't have the link handy, but someone previously mentioned that Disney has confirmed that more people are now using FP than were previously... which would obviously increase the wait times. Not necessarily a bad thing overall.

 

[Jennasis]

So what. If the least profitable customers stop going, that's no worse for Disney.



If you, or anyone, was so lax to simply ditch Disney, you'd just do so. I don't like a store, I go across the street. I don't like red popsicles, next time I grab a blue. But Disney is not so easily discarded because they own the characters you love. Whether it's Mickey & Minnie, or Phineas & Ferb, or Frozen, Rapunzel, Ariel, or even Indiana Jones, Star Wars, and even Superman and Spiderman- Disney owns it all. There will be 3 HUGE new movies on Star Wars in the next 10 years. Are you REALLY going to avoid Disney World when HS gets rethemed in time w the release of these movies??

Disney doesn't own Superman, or any DC character. Spidey is owned by Sony, I think (the film rights etc...). It'll be a cold day in heck before we see him in WDW.

 

[surferdave]

Well, since ride capacity remains unchanged, longer waits simply mean more people are experiencing the attractions than with FP-. While generally this should be viewed as a good thing, it obviously has a negative impact on those who were already experiencing plenty of attractions.

Ride capacity has a high end but can vary all the way down to zero. The CMs control the throughput of many of the rides by individual vehicle, and if necessary they can let seats in the omnimovers that move at constant speed go empty. Reports here in the last month are that they've been doing just that at times.

 

[Donut23]

I've never said I'm going to avoid Disney. I simply said I was keeping my options open. Nobody gets a cheap Disney vacation. At some point you cross the line where you have to question whether you can justify what you're getting out of it vs what you've spent.

You are right. It's called Value. Value is different for every family. WDW stopped being a value for our family a few years ago...at CASTMEMBER rates. DisneyLAND still holds that magic and Value for us, thankfully.

Everyone has the moment when the lovely rose colored glasses shatter and reality rushes in. Some are lucky and never reach that moment.

 

[2Tiggies]

I don't have the link handy, but someone previously mentioned that Disney has confirmed that more people are now using FP than were previously... which would obviously increase the wait times. Not necessarily a bad thing overall.

For who? Disney or for the guests? Disney may have a different goal in all of this to what we do. I think that's a given. But they are walking a thin line here in that they are pushing this new system on the basis that you will have less time in line and more time to 'play'. When people sign up to a product or service, they expect it to be delivered and the way in which is it promoted creates a preconceived idea of what the customer (or guest in WDW's case) expects. When the customer does not believe that they received the service that they signed up for, they feel that the service provider has failed in its obligation to deliver. I don't dispute that this may very well be working for Disney the way they intend it. However, when you are promoting your service or product, you have to be very careful how you word things because people will form a face-value interpretation and use that as a basis for building expectations. When those expectations are not met, it is seen as a fail.

 

[bcrook]

So, according to Josh at Easywdw it appears that there have been some significant changes to the wait times.

In particular, increases to the wait times at secondary attractions. The result of FP+ ? How does this affect your touring strategy/ability ? Discuss !!!!



http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...times-at-disney-world-attractions/#more-13129

A much better data set than was used in previous analysis, which only used Disney posted wait times, and did not include the busy period in February.

Also interesting this still has no account of FP+ return time wait times. So, if SB waits are up, and FP+ waits are up ... what does this mean for FP+ and you ?

Wow! And I thought the MSN article was a fun addition to the FP+ debate. This is much better.

Well I, for one, sure didn't see this coming. How long have "we" been saying this would be the case? Now we just need bcrook to see this thread.

Thanks for the link, Shaden!

I have a lot of catching up to do. Let me get out my charts and update my blogs!

Thanks Josh for this data. Great stuff.

Those trends can't be anything but negative, but I guess there will be explanations coming up that explains why longer standby lines are better.

Don't tell me... Let me be surprised. Here I go, page 2...

 

[doctornick]

So the goal is for people to have more time to spend money? On what? We already stay somewhere and eat so that is out. How long can we shop for generic souvenirs? (Admittedly another topic.)

I see people say this over and over, but I never have seen anything from Disney that leads me to think they expected FP+ to do that. Disney has felt that FP+ will generate revenue the following ways:

1. Getting people to pre-plan days at the parks and commit to being there, potentially going for more days then they otherwise would.
2. Encouraging off site guests to stay on site by providing benefits to being on site (right now, one benefit being the 60 day window for FP+ and could include other things as they tweak the system (like a higher number of FP+ for onsite guests))

There might be more spending on merch/food as a result of these two things but not as a result of "spending less time in line". No one at Disney things that people will spend less time in lines and thus spend more time shipping. It was already established with paper FP that that would not happen.

Edit: I forgot that there is also this thinking by Disney that more people will spend money because it is easier to do so with Magic Bands (or "more fun" at least with Mickey lighting up). I'm skeptical as to the impact there, but it's certainly part of the thinking. Still, that's different than people spending money because they "aren't waiting in line".

 

[doctornick]

Effectively speaking, they have. Obviously, if the standby and FP lines are slower, less guests per hour can go through the rides. So that's an effective reduction in ride capacity.

The only way that happens is if ride vehicles are being sent through empty. I've seen no indication of that beyond a few people claiming that POTC boats from the FP+ side are being sent without being full, with other people countering that claim and saying they are putting SB guests on that side to fill the boats.

Regardless, if the ride CMs are letting vehicles run empty, that's an operational issue not an issue with FP+. The simple solution to that would be to fill said ride vehicles with people in the SB line. I'm extremely skeptical that that would be happening in any great degree and if it is it will be fixed in the future. Disney sees no benefit from having ride vehicles run without guests so they would have no reason to allow the practice.

(As an aside, if anyone sees this practice occur, where vehicles are sent empty, you absolutely should take down the name of the CM allowing this and let Guest Relations know. It would absolutely change if leadership found out it was happened.)

Anyway, the simple explanation to the increased SB times is that more people are in the FP+ line using that. Basically wait times are being redistributed from FP+ (more people are using it to get on quicker than they would before) to SB (more people having to wait longer in that line than they would have before).

 

[bcrook]

The longer wait times are more likely due to the fact that attendance is up in 2014, not due to the FP+. Or say it's due to FP+ if you prefer, but that's probly not the case, as we know attendance is up this year and heavier crowds are likely to be the cause of longer wait times.

Just for fun, let's analyze further:

Let's take 200 people. In 2013, the article asserts the Dinosaur wait was an average of 15 min. Great!

Now in 2014, the standby wait is 25 min but the FP wait is (?) 8 min.

Say everybody who wants to ride Dinosaur, takes a FP for it (being the 3rd of the 3 best options at the park, given most will take their FP for 3 of KS, EE, D, and KRR and rope drop the 4th).

So now 150 ppl ride it via FP, getting on in 8 min.
50 ppl ride it via Standby, waiting 25 min.

Net average wait time? 12 minutes. (8*150+50*25)/200


The data is only as good as the analysis behind it...

This system was never intended to make the experience better for the less than 1% of guests who like us live on the DIS boards and had the old fastpass system down to a science.

The system was designed for the 1st time visitors or once in a decade visitors. Many of these people in the past did little to no research and many did not have a clue what fastpass was or how to use it.

Also, maybe I am wrong but I don't believe data showing that standby lines are longer actually means more people are spending more time in lines. It sounds like more total people are using fastpass over all so total man-hours spent in line per day could actually be significantly lower.

From Disney's perspective - if a small percentage of us "Comandos" are spending more time in lines but a larger percentage of people are using Fastpass and getting through the line quicker (even if this has the consequence of increasing stby times of some rides), then the system is working brilliantly for them.

Also, with most of the headliners seeing no increase or even decrease in wait times combined with increased wait times at secondary rides - this may mean crowds are being spread out more efficiently around the park which was probably another of their goals.

What is amazing to me is Josh spent a considerable amount of time 1. collecting real data, 2. processing the data, and 3. writing about the data, and then the posters above simply make up numbers to refute it.

Strange indeed.

As for the 1% argument... Wow, how many times does this have to be explained? Disney said in their last report that 50% of the guests took advantage of FP. 50% is not 1%.

The best example to explain this is (for the 100th time) TSMM. approximately 9000 people (High end of TSMM ride capacity) PER DAY arrived at DHS before 11:45 and collected all the FP. That is everyday. Most of those people are unique guests too, because it was difficult to get 2 TSMM FP in a day. That is over 3,300,000 guests a year. That is a lot of savvy guests. And Think of the guests who knew how to get FP at other parks and never got TSMM FP.

This is why there is backlash. There are a lot of savvy people getting a diminished experience.

 

[bcrook]

The only way that happens is if ride vehicles are being sent through empty. I've seen no indication of that beyond a few people claiming that POTC boats from the FP+ side are being sent without being full, with other people countering that claim and saying they are putting SB guests on that side to fill the boats.

Regardless, if the ride CMs are letting vehicles run empty, that's an operational issue not an issue with FP+. The simple solution to that would be to fill said ride vehicles with people in the SB line. I'm extremely skeptical that that would be happening in any great degree and if it is it will be fixed in the future. Disney sees no benefit from having ride vehicles run without guests so they would have no reason to allow the practice.

(As an aside, if anyone sees this practice occur, where vehicles are sent empty, you absolutely should take down the name of the CM allowing this and let Guest Relations know. It would absolutely change if leadership found out it was happened.)

Anyway, the simple explanation to the increased SB times is that more people are in the FP+ line using that. Basically wait times are being redistributed from FP+ (more people are using it to get on quicker than they would before) to SB (more people having to wait longer in that line than they would have before).

OR - a higher percentage of park guests are now riding rides. Once they are given their three FPs they feel obliged to ride. In the past, those people could have passed.

This highly plausible explanation would account for FP+ lines and Standby lines to go up.