*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[bcrook]

Yep, the main takeaway from Josh's data is that there's a chance touring might change big-time with the secondaries having longer waits - even if you didn't really use FP-, but used RD to knock out the headliners. We did that and spent the busier part of the day hitting POTC, HM, Star Tours, etc., pulling the random FP for re-rides when we were in that part of the Park and they were available.

Now, with FP+ times starting at RD, guests reserving 3, first-timers and casuals actually honoring their reserved FP's for secondaries, SB going slower, and the published wait times not matching what's really happening (based on Dis feedback), it's gonna take going through a good part of the upcoming busy season to begin to figure it out.

This is what I am thinking too.

And...

It is changing touring.

 

[clsteve]

Many ppl went on to then demonstrate that some ppl will be waiting longer in standby lanes while others will be waiting less in FP lanes that didn't exist before... so the AVERAGE wait was unchanged, or if anything, slightly longer because attendance is up. More attendance or fewer rides are the only thing that will change the AVERAGE wait times.

Fuzzy, using absolutes like those....

There are many things with that can change average wait times until Disney gets through several busy cycles with MM+. The easy ones are things like the infrastructure they built this on, bad test scenarios, ergonomics, etc.

There are just too many variables right now: which is why the numbers game is too hard and the data from Josh is the first real look at a decent sample size.

The biggest issues for a long time are going to be around Process- they took this straight out of the models and implemented everything at once. Look at what happened the last holiday weekend.

All of the previous processes they've used from the Resorts, Parks, GS, IT, are either obsolete, being updated, or awaiting data- whether that's staffing plans, crowd and line management plans, IT maintenance plans, and on, and on....

It's going to take a long time until what was on the whiteboard meets what they're now seeing in practice.

And before you jump in and say "don't worry, they'll fix it". It's going to take a long time to have the data to fix it, or know what to fix. Not saying they won't- I hope they do.

 

[clsteve]

This is what I am thinking too.

And...

It is changing touring.

Yep, and until they get the data from a busy season or two- they can't get their processes and the infrastructure in line enough for us to predict much of anything......

 

[Planogirl]

Again, I don't think that Disney is worried about people waiting in line. They know people are going to be waiting in line. FP+ was developed to prevent people from waiting in line.

The purpose of FP+ is to get people to pre-plan days in the parks and encourage them to go there, potentially going more days and staying longer in the parks than they otherwise might. If that happens, then increased merch and food sales will follow regardless of "waiting in line".

This doesn't make sense to me. Don't most people buy passes for a certain number of days ahead of time and haven't they always done so? If I buy a 7 day pass, I do so planning to spend all or part of seven days at WDW. Do others do something different?

 

[Planogirl]

It makes sense in a way.

If I am going to spend the same amount of time in the parks, but can knock out three rides without wait, or with a shorter wait than before, but will still spend that time trying to ride rides ... then I am going to be riding, or trying to ride, more rides.

Now, its possible that my overall wait times average out the same ... would have to do case by case math. If you used the 3 FPs on headliners and then repeated secondaries, your wait time might stay the same, but if you used the 3 FPs on Secondaries and then continued to ride secondaries and maybe reride them, I have to think your average wait will go up.

Now, some people are going to ride their 3 FPs, and whatever they normally would, maybe faster than before, and then leave.

But some of them really will spend the same amount of time in the parks, and try to ride more rides. If they are virtually queing some, more than before, but still manually queing the same amount, then the overall wait time will increase.

Wow. That is some great thinking.

If someone is in effect waiting in two lines at the same time then they are taking up two places. Three FP+ places that person in three virtual lines while the old system only allowed one at a time. That's room for thought.

 

[MrInfinity]

Three FP+ places that person in three virtual lines while the old system only allowed one at a time. That's room for thought.

FP- allowed one to be in 4 lines at a time. That's what made a commando a commando right? Pull 1 FP. When its window opens, pull another one. Hoard the first. Now pull an off-system FP-, then go wait standby for a short line. You're waiting in 4 lines at once.

Only a few knew you could manipulate the system so... now, everybody gets 3 across the board. And they aren't at the same time as you can't overlap your hours. So at most you can be in 2 lines by utilizing one FP+ and going standby on something else during your hour block.

 

[bcrook]

Wow. That is some great thinking.

If someone is in effect waiting in two lines at the same time then they are taking up two places. Three FP+ places that person in three virtual lines while the old system only allowed one at a time. That's room for thought.

And the number of people using FP has now skyrocketed in conjunction with three FP+.

 

[bcrook]

FP- allowed one to be in 4 lines at a time. That's what made a commando a commando right? Pull 1 FP. When its window opens, pull another one. Hoard the first. Now pull an off-system FP-, then go wait standby for a short line. You're waiting in 4 lines at once.

Only a few knew you could manipulate the system so... now, everybody gets 3 across the board. And they aren't at the same time as you can't overlap your hours. So at most you can be in 2 lines by utilizing one FP+ and going standby on something else during your hour block.

Once again, it is a difference of volume. Very few people followed your extreme case. But you are right about the one hour at a time for FP +.

Under legacy, most people waited two hours to pull a new FP. So in the same two hours a FP+ person could be in 4 lines with 2 FP+.

As for volume. 90% of FP+ guests potentially could be in two lines or four lines over two hours. Previously, legacy only had 50% of users tying up two lines.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Sure. We've also seen that once you get past the "choke point" of the first scanner, the inside FP+ line is virtually non existent and one can breeze through it and through the second FP+ point quickly.

The main difference is that the FP "wait" is now shifted to outside the attraction before the first scanner, as opposed to inside the queue between the checkpoints. I did not notice any significant change in total wait time for FP when I used it.

And to whatever extent that FP+ waits might be slightly higher than before, it is almost certainly the result of more FP+ usage (thus more total people in the FP+ queues).

We never had that "choke point" with paper FPs, AND the second FP point was again someone eyeballing your FP in a second instead of 30 seconds.

And perhaps the worse problem are those times when they hold back the standby people in favor of the FP+ people, and that damnable line stops moving because of finicky scanners. With paper FPs, some people complained that it would stop the SB line, but at least the FP line almost always moved smoothly, dammit. Now the "new and improved" FP line keeps getting stalled, everytime someone has trouble getting the Mickey head to light up.

I guess that's why CMs sometimes wave people through when there's a bottleneck in the lines. I would call that a case of sanity trumping technology.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Because Disney would rather the 7 ridings of Soarin that a commando consumes go instead to 7 customers each of which will need to eat.

FP- : Commando goes the park, spends all day there, rides 7 rides. Spends $100. Maybe buys food. Happy.

FP+ : Commando doesn't go (or goes but gets only 1 FP headliner). Instead, his 7 ridings go to 7 new guests that are happy to ride once, each of which spend $100, eats, and buys a souvenier.

It's just a business decision. In boom times, the loyal guests are expendable. The target audience is no longer you, it's that next family. I'm sure Disney has done the studies, and they have forecasted how many ppl will be annoyed and stop going, and how many will continue to do so. And the math points to FP+ being the profitable path.

I'd like to think I mean more to Disney than that. After all, I've been going to Disney for 30 years. But sadly that's not the case. The instant I lose my job and cannot any longer afford to go to Disney World, they will not be there saying "it's okay, you were loyal come anyways on us".

I really don't believe that Disney would be foolish enough to willfully alienate their core loyal, repeat customers. To some extent, I think that is happening, but it is a highly unintended consequence of the FP+ rollout.

Others in this thread offered much more plausible explanations concerning Disney's rationale. The company probably thought they would gain those aforementioned benefits (longer stays, more people staying onsite) and, in their usual arrogance, just assumed that repeat guests would just suck it up.

In any case, I still say their priorities are screwed up, and they could have made much better use of that money.

As for the effect of FP+ on first-time visitors... I doubt that it will make guests more likely to return. One measly FP for a headliner, coupled with two for attractions which seldom need a FP, is not likely to intice people to spend another 5K anytime soon.

Guests come back to WDW if they had a great overall experience, if they can afford to come back, and if repeating their experience trumps other destinations. That's a lot of ifs, which might explain the many once-in-a-lifetime visitors. And if the WDC is as cynical as you say, why would they care what one-timers think, since they already got their money?

 

[2Tiggies]

Once again, it is a difference of volume. Very few people followed your extreme case. But you are right about the one hour at a time for FP +.

Under legacy, most people waited two hours to pull a new FP. So in the same two hours a FP+ person could be in 4 lines with 2 FP+.

As for volume. 90% of FP+ guests potentially could be in two lines or four lines over two hours. Previously, legacy only had 50% of users tying up two lines.

That makes so much sense. To add to this, under the old system, you pulled the FP you were going to use. Even the tiny percentage of those who used a commando approach and 'abused' the system, generally did so with every intention of using them, often giving an unused FP ticket away. Now under the new system, someone wanting just one FP+ or perhaps 2, does not have the option to pull what they want to use; they have to take 3, even if they only intend using the one that they really wanted. Although unused FP+ bookings do not put an actual person in line, that virtual space makes the FP unavailable. My guess is that with the increased number of people using FP+ compared to the small percentage of super users under the old system, there are far more spots being taken out of the pool and not being redeemed. My theory may have holes in it, but I think it holds some merit too.

 

[Nole95]

That makes so much sense. To add to this, under the old system, you pulled the FP you were going to use. Even the tiny percentage of those who used a commando approach and 'abused' the system, generally did so with every intention of using them, often giving an unused FP ticket away. Now under the new system, someone wanting just one FP+ or perhaps 2, does not have the option to pull what they want to use; they have to take 3, even if they only intend using the one that they really wanted. Although unused FP+ bookings do not put an actual person in line, that virtual space makes the FP unavailable. My guess is that with the increased number of people using FP+ compared to the small percentage of super users under the old system, there are far more spots being taken out of the pool and not being redeemed. My theory may have holes in it, but I think it holds some merit too.

You make a valid point in people not using the FP+ selections they make because I was one of them.

DW and I went to EPCOT back in January after running the marathon. Prior to the trip, we made our FP+ selections. Due to the tiers, we decided we wanted to ride Soarin, but none of the other selections were things we cared about or felt we needed a FP+ for.

Since the system forced three selections on us, we got the time we wanted for Soarin and let the system pick the other two. We never used those, so that was basically two FP+ that someone else could have used.

Quite honestly I would probably be fine with FP+ if they increased the MK selections to 5 and removed tiers where they have them.

As far as FP+ affecting wait times for secondary rides, I have to figure Disney will figure this out eventually. After all, if I am waiting in line longer for secondary rides or longer overall over the day, I am not out spending my money elsewhere, which is one of the stated reasons for this system. There is no reason anyone should be waiting more the 10-15 minutes to get on Journey Into Imagination. I have been to EPCOT over the past few years prior to FP+ at different times of the year and have pretty much been able to walk onto that ride at any time.

 

[clsteve]

We never had that "choke point" with paper FPs, AND the second FP point was again someone eyeballing your FP in a second instead of 30 seconds.

And perhaps the worse problem are those times when they hold back the standby people in favor of the FP+ people, and that damnable line stops moving because of finicky scanners. With paper FPs, some people complained that it would stop the SB line, but at least the FP line almost always moved smoothly, dammit. Now the "new and improved" FP line keeps getting stalled, everytime someone has trouble getting the Mickey head to light up.

I guess that's why CMs sometimes wave people through when there's a bottleneck in the lines. I would call that a case of sanity trumping technology.

Good point. This is something to watch closely during Spring Break and Easter. As long as this continues, and FP Lines are way out where they're not supposed to be- process and infrastructure are still having big issues and it's not working the way it was planned.

 

[2Tiggies]

Good point. This is something to watch closely during Spring Break and Easter. As long as this continues, and FP Lines are way out where they're not supposed to be- process and infrastructure are still having big issues and it's not working the way it was planned.

I'm watching Spring Break and Easter very closely this year. It's as close as I'm going to get as far as crowd levels go to get a feel for our .... uh .... 4ht of July trip

 

[Mac4life30]

You make a valid point in people not using the FP+ selections they make because I was one of them.

DW and I went to EPCOT back in January after running the marathon. Prior to the trip, we made our FP+ selections. Due to the tiers, we decided we wanted to ride Soarin, but none of the other selections were things we cared about or felt we needed a FP+ for.

Since the system forced three selections on us, we got the time we wanted for Soarin and let the system pick the other two. We never used those, so that was basically two FP+ that someone else could have used.

Quite honestly I would probably be fine with FP+ if they increased the MK selections to 5 and removed tiers where they have them.

As far as FP+ affecting wait times for secondary rides, I have to figure Disney will figure this out eventually. After all, if I am waiting in line longer for secondary rides or longer overall over the day, I am not out spending my money elsewhere, which is one of the stated reasons for this system. There is no reason anyone should be waiting more the 10-15 minutes to get on Journey Into Imagination. I have been to EPCOT over the past few years prior to FP+ at different times of the year and have pretty much been able to walk onto that ride at any time.

I had to wait 10 mins for the TTA at MK. Not that 10 mins is horrible but for TTA is unheard of!!!

 

[2Tiggies]

I had to wait 10 mins for the TTA at MK. Not that 10 mins is horrible but for TTA is unheard of!!!

I think the fact that Journey into the Imagination has posted wait times of 10 minutes + speaks volumes. Add the TTA to this too. Worst we have had for TTA may have been close to 10 minutes but it was Easter weekend and it was a continuously walking line so it never felt that bad.

Disney has to be aware of these side effects of the new system. I can't imagine they are going to ignore them. The question is, as always, just because it's an issue to us, does that mean they see it as a problem too? They can't sort this out fast enough, really.

 

[lugnut33]

Good point. This is something to watch closely during Spring Break and Easter. As long as this continues, and FP Lines are way out where they're not supposed to be- process and infrastructure are still having big issues and it's not working the way it was planned.

Not to worry, they are building FP+ lines outside the FP+ line so you can wait in line to get in line.

 

[lugnut33]

It is creating a situation in which doing such peripheral costly activities is more possible while still being able to quickly knock out some rides.

As much as the legacy FP- optimizers don't like to accept, they are simply not the most profitable for Disney to create a system for. Thus, the system is curtailed to the guests that are actually going to spend money on other things, and so Disney will make sure to get those ppl on rides, done w their rides, and off buying that $100 BBB, $100 boat ride, or $12 drinks at their pool.

What does Disney care if someone who would just ride Soarin 7 times doesn't get to do so? They're not spending money, they already paid for their AP, and all they're doing is riding Soarin.

Just absolutely silly logic to think that family is going to BBB every day and all day long and that they don't care about the attractions. Also silly to think that people who like to ride attractions don't spend money. So when I walk in and buy that $795 painting it doesn't count because I rode BTMRR 5 times during the day? Actually, I just blew away that family that went to BBB in terms of dollars given to Disney.

 

[mom2rtk]

Not to worry, they are building FP+ lines outside the FP+ line so you can wait in line to get in line.

..........to avoid waiting in the standby line. And unless you have app access with a smartphone, you got to set this all up........ by standing in line.

 

[clsteve]

Not to worry, they are building FP+ lines outside the FP+ line so you can wait in line to get in line.

Is a line to get in a line still a line?

Lugnut33, don't go so philosophical on us this early in the morning...!!!