*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[doctornick]

OR - a higher percentage of park guests are now riding rides. Once they are given their three FPs they feel obliged to ride. In the past, those people could have passed.

This highly plausible explanation would account for FP+ lines and Standby lines to go up.

That's fair. It's possible that more people are getting in line for more rides, which would make total wait times greater.

But the flip side is that means that some people are riding more rides than they would have otherwise, which in principle indicates a "better" vacation for those guests.

 

[Mad Hattered]

That's fair. It's possible that more people are getting in line for more rides, which would make total wait times greater.

But the flip side is that means that some people are riding more rides than they would have otherwise, which in principle indicates a "better" vacation for those guests.

But if they are in line then they aren't spending money. Something has to give.

 

[Shaden]

so we know the overall attendance numbers? rides that malfunctioned?

NOPE. all we know is what the reported wait times are.

those with an agenda are using their agenda to decide why something happened, but since we don't know attendance figures, ride malfunction figures, etc, etc, we can't possibly know how much impact fp+ had on reported wait times.

attendance up 1.5%, roughly the same as the year before which had almost no impact on wait times.

But thanks.

 

[doctornick]

What we know is that this has happened since FP+ was instituted, and we know why: it takes much longer for the Mickey scanners to read your MB than it once took for a CM to eyeball your paper FPs. Countless posters on these boards have observed that with their own eyes, and described the painful process.

Sure. We've also seen that once you get past the "choke point" of the first scanner, the inside FP+ line is virtually non existent and one can breeze through it and through the second FP+ point quickly.

The main difference is that the FP "wait" is now shifted to outside the attraction before the first scanner, as opposed to inside the queue between the checkpoints. I did not notice any significant change in total wait time for FP when I used it.

And to whatever extent that FP+ waits might be slightly higher than before, it is almost certainly the result of more FP+ usage (thus more total people in the FP+ queues).

 

[doctornick]

But if they are in line then they aren't spending money. Something has to give.

Again, I don't think that Disney is worried about people waiting in line. They know people are going to be waiting in line. FP+ was developed to prevent people from waiting in line.

The purpose of FP+ is to get people to pre-plan days in the parks and encourage them to go there, potentially going more days and staying longer in the parks than they otherwise might. If that happens, then increased merch and food sales will follow regardless of "waiting in line".

 

[Mad Hattered]

Sure. We've also seen that once you get past the "choke point" of the first scanner, the inside FP+ line is virtually non existent and one can breeze through it and through the second FP+ point quickly.

The main difference is that the FP "wait" is now shifted to outside the attraction before the first scanner, as opposed to inside the queue between the checkpoints. I did not notice any significant change in total wait time for FP when I used it.

And to whatever extent that FP+ waits might be slightly higher than before, it is almost certainly the result of more FP+ usage (thus more total people in the FP+ queues).

To the "newbies" that are finally taking advantage of FP+, it doesn't make a good first impression to see the line backed out from BTMRs entrance over the bridge past Splash. Or at least I wouldn't think it would. What will that line look like come Spring Break?

 

[redrosesix]

OR - a higher percentage of park guests are now riding rides. Once they are given their three FPs they feel obliged to ride. In the past, those people could have passed.

This highly plausible explanation would account for FP+ lines and Standby lines to go up.

ok maybe, but that wasn't us. Of course we tried to use all of our FPs. But we did our share of SB too. But we definitely did less rides than even our first trip. And it just wasn't that crowded on our trip compared to other years... so many CS locations were closed, yet we had no problem at all getting a table and we never saw all of the queues open.

 

[bcrook]

Sure. We've also seen that once you get past the "choke point" of the first scanner, the inside FP+ line is virtually non existent and one can breeze through it and through the second FP+ point quickly.

The main difference is that the FP "wait" is now shifted to outside the attraction before the first scanner, as opposed to inside the queue between the checkpoints. I did not notice any significant change in total wait time for FP when I used it.

And to whatever extent that FP+ waits might be slightly higher than before, it is almost certainly the result of more FP+ usage (thus more total people in the FP+ queues).

There were lots of reports during Presidents' Day, that the FP line was filled solid. There will be more starting soon.

My guess is the FP distribution rate increased, and that line is growing too.

MK only had about 60,000 worthwhile FP with legacy. 50% of the population gobbled them up. Others just skipped the rides. Now Disney is handing out three FP to every guest when they walk in the door. At MK during peak that mean 70,000 people. Disney said that 90% of the population are now using FP. So, instead of 35,000 competing for FP slots, now in MK 63,000 are grabbing places. And there are still only 60,000 high demand FP slots (at least until the mine train opens).

When that mine train opens... That will be fun.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Again, I don't think that Disney is worried about people waiting in line. They know people are going to be waiting in line. FP+ was developed to prevent people from waiting in line.

The purpose of FP+ is to get people to pre-plan days in the parks and encourage them to go there, potentially going more days and staying longer in the parks than they otherwise might. If that happens, then increased merch and food sales will follow regardless of "waiting in line".

But being only able to get 3 FP+s will force people to stand in longer SB waits in order to ride other rides that they previously could have used legacy FP and spent less time in line. The less time I am in any line give me the opportunity to buy the things you mention.

Now I am inclined to book 3 rides/parades/fireworks in the evening while being able to enjoy my morning offsite at another Orlando attraction. There is the chance for me to spend less money in Disney parks now.

 

[doctornick]

To the "newbies" that are finally taking advantage of FP+, it doesn't make a good first impression to see the line backed out from BTMRs entrance over the bridge past Splash. Or at least I wouldn't think it would. What will that line look like come Spring Break?

I agree that it does look good at all. I'm skeptical that wait times in the Fastpass line has changed much though.

Hopefully this will improve in the future (more scanners perhaps, certainly as guests become more familiar over time with using the scanners, possibly the system getting less "glitchy" so less blue Mickeys).

 

[bcrook]

ok maybe, but that wasn't us. Of course we tried to use all of our FPs. But we did our share of SB too. But we definitely did less rides than even our first trip. And it just wasn't that crowded on our trip compared to other years... so many CS locations were closed, yet we had no problem at all getting a table and we never saw all of the queues open.

I am simply stating that the possibility exists. If both FP and standby lines increase it is has to be increased attendance, increased percentage of riders, inefficient systems, or a reduction of ride capacity. Or some combination.

 

[doctornick]

But being only able to get 3 FP+s will force people to stand in longer SB waits in order to ride other rides that they previously could have used legacy FP and spent less time in line. The less time I am in any line give me the opportunity to buy the things you mention.

Some people, yes, that might happen. For the bulk of people visiting WDW? I certainly doubt it. Most guests will have a certainly amount of "waiting in line" tolerance in a day and won't shop or eat more or less just because the POTC line is 10 minutes longer.

Again, FP+ just redistributes waits, it doesn't create more waiting time. For every person waiting longer in a SB line, someone is getting on quicker in a FP+ line than they previously would.

Now I am inclined to book 3 rides/parades/fireworks in the evening while being able to enjoy my morning offsite at another Orlando attraction. There is the chance for me to spend less money in Disney parks now.

Sure, but that's the exception. The majority of guests at Disney aren't going to split there days. Tickets are expensive enough that people will want to get "their money's worth" and stay in the parks more or less full days. Disney is far less concerned with your scenario than they are with the far more realistic scenario of someone spending "only" 5 days of there week long vacation at WDW and going to Uni/Sea World for the rest -- Disney wants the entire 7-10 days of that trip to be spent on Disney property. And if they get someone to book their "3 rides/parades/fireworks in the evening", I'm sure they are confident that most such guests would be spending their morning and afternoon on Disney property as well.

 

[MrInfinity]

What is amazing to me is Josh spent a considerable amount of time 1. collecting real data, 2. processing the data, and 3. writing about the data, and then the posters above simply make up numbers to refute it.

No, other posters were drawing an incorrect cause and effect. Josh's numbers are just the standby wait times. Others were asserting that because standby wait times were higher, FP+ was causing an average of longer waits. I was making the point that you could easily draw the complete opposite conclusion and the cause-and-effect was arbitrary and made up to suit the case of those ppl who like to bash FP+.

Thus, the original premise of this thread -- that FP+ was causing longer waits and that josh's data proves this was an incorrect premise. Josh's data does not prove this. It is great data, but it simply does not prove that wait times are on average higher, nor that average waits are higher because of FP+. Many ppl went on to then demonstrate that some ppl will be waiting longer in standby lanes while others will be waiting less in FP lanes that didn't exist before... so the AVERAGE wait was unchanged, or if anything, slightly longer because attendance is up. More attendance or fewer rides are the only thing that will change the AVERAGE wait times.

 

[Shaden]

An interesting thought.

If more people are using FP+. That means more people waiting in virtual ques, essentially meaning "people" are waiting in 2 lines at once. More people waiting in virtual ques theoretically means more people in the parks at the same time.

Just something I read on the thread posted by Josh and I really liked the thinking behind this. It kind of makes sense if you think about it ...

Anyway thought I would share and see what you thought ...

 

[tomu570]

This system was never intended to make the experience better for the less than 1% of guests who like us live on the DIS boards and had the old fastpass system down to a science.

The system was designed for the 1st time visitors or once in a decade visitors. Many of these people in the past did little to no research and many did not have a clue what fastpass was or how to use it.

From Disney's perspective - if a small percentage of us "Comandos" are spending more time in lines but a larger percentage of people are using Fastpass and getting through the line quicker (even if this has the consequence of increasing stby times of some rides), then the system is working brilliantly for them.

First of all, I believe us commandos are a lot larger than 1%. And from a business standpoint why would a company cater to the once in a lifetime or once in a decade visitor and not the commandos who come down at least once year? It's simply bad business to frustrate the loyal and repeat guests that have helped make WDW what it is today.

 

[bcrook]

An interesting thought.

If more people are using FP+. That means more people waiting in virtual ques, essentially meaning "people" are waiting in 2 lines at once. More people waiting in virtual ques theoretically means more people in the parks at the same time.

Just something I read on the thread posted by Josh and I really liked the thinking behind this. It kind of makes sense if you think about it ...

Anyway thought I would share and see what you thought ...

More "virtual" people? If more people are waiting in two lines at the same time then all lines wait times goes up. This could explain a higher percentage of park users without actually having non riders getting on rides.

 

[Shaden]

An interesting thought.

If more people are using FP+. That means more people waiting in virtual ques, essentially meaning "people" are waiting in 2 lines at once. More people waiting in virtual ques theoretically means more people in the parks at the same time.

Just something I read on the thread posted by Josh and I really liked the thinking behind this. It kind of makes sense if you think about it ...

Anyway thought I would share and see what you thought ...

More "virtual" people? If more people are waiting in two lines at the same time then all lines wait times goes up. This could explain a higher percentage of park users without actually having non riders getting on rides.

It makes sense in a way.

If I am going to spend the same amount of time in the parks, but can knock out three rides without wait, or with a shorter wait than before, but will still spend that time trying to ride rides ... then I am going to be riding, or trying to ride, more rides.

Now, its possible that my overall wait times average out the same ... would have to do case by case math. If you used the 3 FPs on headliners and then repeated secondaries, your wait time might stay the same, but if you used the 3 FPs on Secondaries and then continued to ride secondaries and maybe reride them, I have to think your average wait will go up.

Now, some people are going to ride their 3 FPs, and whatever they normally would, maybe faster than before, and then leave.

But some of them really will spend the same amount of time in the parks, and try to ride more rides. If they are virtually queing some, more than before, but still manually queing the same amount, then the overall wait time will increase.

 

[MrInfinity]

First of all, I believe us commandos are a lot larger than 1%. And from a business standpoint why would a company cater to the once in a lifetime or once in a decade visitor and not the commandos who come down at least once year? It's simply bad business to frustrate the loyal and repeat guests that have helped make WDW what it is today.

Because Disney would rather the 7 ridings of Soarin that a commando consumes go instead to 7 customers each of which will need to eat.

FP- : Commando goes the park, spends all day there, rides 7 rides. Spends $100. Maybe buys food. Happy.

FP+ : Commando doesn't go (or goes but gets only 1 FP headliner). Instead, his 7 ridings go to 7 new guests that are happy to ride once, each of which spend $100, eats, and buys a souvenier.

It's just a business decision. In boom times, the loyal guests are expendable. The target audience is no longer you, it's that next family. I'm sure Disney has done the studies, and they have forecasted how many ppl will be annoyed and stop going, and how many will continue to do so. And the math points to FP+ being the profitable path.

I'd like to think I mean more to Disney than that. After all, I've been going to Disney for 30 years. But sadly that's not the case. The instant I lose my job and cannot any longer afford to go to Disney World, they will not be there saying "it's okay, you were loyal come anyways on us".

 

[bcrook]

Because Disney would rather the 7 ridings of Soarin that a commando consumes go instead to 7 customers each of which will need to eat.

FP- : Commando goes the park, spends all day there, rides 7 rides. Spends $100. Maybe buys food. Happy.

FP+ : Commando doesn't go (or goes but gets only 1 FP headliner). Instead, his 7 ridings go to 7 new guests that are happy to ride once, each of which spend $100, eats, and buys a souvenier.

It's just a business decision. In boom times, the loyal guests are expendable. The target audience is no longer you, it's that next family. I'm sure Disney has done the studies, and they have forecasted how many ppl will be annoyed and stop going, and how many will continue to do so. And the math points to FP+ being the profitable path.

I'd like to think I mean more to Disney than that. After all, I've been going to Disney for 30 years. But sadly that's not the case. The instant I lose my job and cannot any longer afford to go to Disney World, they will not be there saying "it's okay, you were loyal come anyways on us".

Disney has never given this as a reason. It is a good "theory" but not supported by much of anything released by Disney.

You could make the argument that Disney wants as many different people as possible locked into rides therefore not wanting to leave. But, I am having a more and more difficult time believing this, because the limits themselves are causing a lot of backlash. Hardly anyone approves of the tiers.

 

[bcrook]

It makes sense in a way.

If I am going to spend the same amount of time in the parks, but can knock out three rides without wait, or with a shorter wait than before, but will still spend that time trying to ride rides ... then I am going to be riding, or trying to ride, more rides.

Now, its possible that my overall wait times average out the same ... would have to do case by case math. If you used the 3 FPs on headliners and then repeated secondaries, your wait time might stay the same, but if you used the 3 FPs on Secondaries and then continued to ride secondaries and maybe reride them, I have to think your average wait will go up.

Now, some people are going to ride their 3 FPs, and whatever they normally would, maybe faster than before, and then leave.

But some of them really will spend the same amount of time in the parks, and try to ride more rides. If they are virtually queing some, more than before, but still manually queing the same amount, then the overall wait time will increase.

I think there is some merit to this. If nothing else, it shows thinking outside the box.