Typical supply and demand for this time of year?

[OlafSchmolaf]

We've been looking for an AK contract recently but haven't tracked prices and supply for long enough to know the trends. Seems like contracts that are reasonable are going quickly. For those who have tracked longer or over previous years, any idea on if this trend is typical for this time of year? Do prices fall and does supply increase typically the further away from summer we get? Also, the contracts I'm seeing on the ROFR thread are much lower per point that what counter offers have been. Is there a factor where people won't post on ROFR thread unless they get a great deal? Just curious on your thoughts.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

I've only been watching since Jan 15 and can only speak from a casual perspective but so far, I haven't seen anything like this.

We had a contract almost fall through and I was worried because there is almost nothing out there at any price, never mind a good price. We'll prob see a surge in listings in fall but I doubt prices will come down much.

They've been steadily increasing the last 2.5 years. At many resorts by $20-25 a point. I remember folks lamenting the hike to $100 at BLT when I first join the boards and they never went down.

The rental brokers are struggling to fill requests and that's how we ultimately were sold on the program, by renting. Our rental for oct 16 ( booked Within 11 mos) was hard to get. Daves, said VGF was our best shot since it's more points and they had a loooong wait for AKV and BLT. The main competitor couldn't find us anything.

Demand is not going to wane anytime soon. I think it's safe to plan on more of the same.

 

[BillPA]

I think when the new HIGHER tax rates hit next year, many will be selling, so hang in there deals are on the way.

 

[Matty B13]

They started falling a little bit in the Fall of 2016, but not by much. That being said, the prices are much higher this year, and contracts seem to be selling a lot quicker, at least the ones with 25-100 points.

 

[Debbie Jean]

Summer is slow. People are away and many have trips scheduled for the fall which is typically one of the busiest times for DVC travel. Once the new year begins and dues need to be paid, more people will be interested in selling. Whether that means any real reduction in prices is debatable but there will definitely be more contracts on the market. I would think this will begin in the latter part of the fall.

One of the reasons I chose to sell one of my contracts this summer was because prices are so strong and I knew I would have no trouble finding a buyer.

 

[OlafSchmolaf]

I think when the new HIGHER tax rates hit next year, many will be selling, so hang in there deals are on the way.

What are the higher tax rates going to be? Are you referring to the annual price per point dues going up?

 

[mustinjourney]

What are the higher tax rates going to be? Are you referring to the annual price per point dues going up?

A new tax assessor for Orlando was elected a few years ago, and he has made it his mission to up the property taxes paid by Disney. A good portion of our maintenance fees are attributed to property taxes -- so we can expect to see further increases in MF. The reasoning provided for the MFs being so high at CCV was because Disney was factoring in the additional expected increase in property taxes.

 

[OlafSchmolaf]

A new tax assessor for Orlando was elected a few years ago, and he has made it his mission to up the property taxes paid by Disney. A good portion of our maintenance fees are attributed to property taxes -- so we can expect to see further increases in MF. The reasoning provided for the MFs being so high at CCV was because Disney was factoring in the additional expected increase in property taxes.

Thank you. That makes sense...even if higher taxes are unwelcome.

 

[SL6827]

A new tax assessor for Orlando was elected a few years ago, and he has made it his mission to up the property taxes paid by Disney. A good portion of our maintenance fees are attributed to property taxes -- so we can expect to see further increases in MF. The reasoning provided for the MFs being so high at CCV was because Disney was factoring in the additional expected increase in property taxes.

So is this the first year that he has made it his personal mission to make Disney and others pony up more money in taxes? I read the article on him, and it was an interesting read. But probably not good news for those who will be on the receiving end of his capabilities. If he is able to drive up the property values (dues) of the DVCs in Florida, it could very well make Hilton Head more appealing to purchase for some. And for those who are hoping to be in the market for a Hilton Head contract, that may not be good.

 

[skippytx]

I've only been watching since Jan 15 and can only speak from a casual perspective but so far, I haven't seen anything like this.....

They've been steadily increasing the last 2.5 years. At many resorts by $20-25 a point. I remember folks lamenting the hike to $100 at BLT when I first join the boards and they never went down.

We've been keeping an eye on BLT for a little over a year, and we just purchased at 125/pt. I wasn't thrilled about it, last year the same points would probably have been 110 or less, even earlier this year BLT could be had at 110-115, but the most current listings are coming out at 135-140/pt now I'm almost happy I got locked in at 125/pt.

Right now inventory is low, and contracts are selling in a matter of hours. Folks are either using their points right now, or planning holiday trips with them. I predict inventory will pick up a little towards the end of the year and definitely after the 1st of the year, especially as the annual due bills start rolling in. I don't think prices will drop much though, maybe a little at some resorts, but in demand resorts I don't think prices will drop.

A couple brokers really seem to be pushing to see how high the market will go with these points. Just this morning I saw a 30pt BLT contract get listed for 155/pt with the comment "only a full asking price offer including closing costs and 2017 dues will be accepted" The seller is international as well! Total cost 5,244 dollars. 30 points @ 185 list direct is only 5,550 plus the low DVC closing costs. No way I would entertain that contract, I'd save the hassle and buy direct at that price. Funny thing is, contract was listed today and it's already listed as offer accepted. Several other BLT listings at this broker have gone for 138 and 148 a point.

If you're not in a hurry, it can't hurt to wait and see what happens. I was in a situation where I needed the points by Dec 1st this year, so I paid what I felt like was a premium on them to secure them. It's starting to feel like I may have gotten a decent deal after all.

 

[SL6827]

When was the last time that it was consider a buyer's market?

 

[Greg36]

We've been looking for an AK contract recently but haven't tracked prices and supply for long enough to know the trends. Seems like contracts that are reasonable are going quickly. For those who have tracked longer or over previous years, any idea on if this trend is typical for this time of year? Do prices fall and does supply increase typically the further away from summer we get? Also, the contracts I'm seeing on the ROFR thread are much lower per point that what counter offers have been. Is there a factor where people won't post on ROFR thread unless they get a great deal? Just curious on your thoughts.

We have been watching off and on and AKL prices have gone up. It seemed like high 70's and low 80's were much more typical even a few months back... Now it seems like many are in the 90's and even low 100's. We tried negotiating on a couple but did not find much wiggle room. We did end up getting a 160 point contract for $87.50 a point and we are currently in ROFR now. I have not been following long enough to offer an educated perspective on what will happen to supply and prices in the fall and in the new year, but I have read in a number of places where people have said they expect supply to increase closer to when dues are due. Hopefully this will put some downward pressure on per point costs. Good luck.

 

[skippytx]

When was the last time that it was consider a buyer's market?

From going way back in time on various forums it seems if you has the cash 2011 was a great time to buy DVC.

From user Jay324 on another forum

In 2011, DVC decided to combat the declining prices in the resale market by placing restrictions on resale purchases. I'm sure it worked for a lot of potential direct purchases but this really took the resale market to it's lowest point. SSR, BWV, VWL and AKV were selling in the 40's and 50's and OKW was selling in the high 30's. You could even have gotten BLT in the 60's (which I did). I remember stupidly turning down a fully loaded contract at OKW at 33 a point for I just never stayed at OKW and didn't think it was for me. I also turned down an SSR contract at 42 a point. Man, I wish I had pulled the trigger on some more great deals. In 2011-2012, the resale information price tread on this board was even called how low can you go. ROFR was still non-existent and the sky was falling for DVC.

 

[minorthr]

Ive only been watching for the last 3 months and its gone way up over the course of just 3 months. Especially the contracts of 50 points or less. They seem to be selling in minutes. I put in a few offers literally minutes after getting notification from agents and they were already gone. Most of them seem to be going for full or close to full asking, based off some offers I put in and declined to purchase.

 

[OlafSchmolaf]

A couple brokers really seem to be pushing to see how high the market will go with these points. Just this morning I saw a 30pt BLT contract get listed for 155/pt with the comment "only a full asking price offer including closing costs and 2017 dues will be accepted" The seller is international as well! Total cost 5,244 dollars. 30 points @ 185 list direct is only 5,550 plus the low DVC closing costs. No way I would entertain that contract, I'd save the hassle and buy direct at that price. Funny thing is, contract was listed today and it's already listed as offer accepted. Several other BLT listings at this broker have gone for 138 and 148 a point.

If you're not in a hurry, it can't hurt to wait and see what happens. I was in a situation where I needed the points by Dec 1st this year, so I paid what I felt like was a premium on them to secure them. It's starting to feel like I may have gotten a decent deal after all.

Is it acceptable to ask which brokers are not being flexible and are trying to push the market?

 

[minorthr]

Is it acceptable to ask which brokers are not being flexible and are trying to push the market?

Seems like all of them.

 

[SL6827]

I have no problem what so ever waiting till the right contract at the right price comes along for me to buy in. If it is this year or next year great, if not, then I will hold off.

 

[MrInfinity]

From going way back in time on various forums it seems if you has the cash 2011 was a great time to buy DVC.

Well... 2011 was a great time to buy ANYthing.
DIS stock was $35. Today it's over $100. You could have tripled your money.

You could even have gotten BLT in the 60's (which I did).

BLT at 60 to today's 120 is only double, and that's before considering commissions and 6 years of maintenance and taxes. 2011 wasn't necessarily a good year to buy DVC simply because 2011 was one of the best years in modern history to buy just about any other investment.

In 2011-2012, the resale information price tread on this board was even called how low can you go.

In 2011 the world was in shock from the previous 3 years of havoc and people were asking how low everything would go. Around then things took a turn for the better.

 

[mousehockey37]

We've been looking for an AK contract recently but haven't tracked prices and supply for long enough to know the trends. Seems like contracts that are reasonable are going quickly. For those who have tracked longer or over previous years, any idea on if this trend is typical for this time of year? Do prices fall and does supply increase typically the further away from summer we get? Also, the contracts I'm seeing on the ROFR thread are much lower per point that what counter offers have been. Is there a factor where people won't post on ROFR thread unless they get a great deal? Just curious on your thoughts.

I think when the new HIGHER tax rates hit next year, many will be selling, so hang in there deals are on the way.

They started falling a little bit in the Fall of 2016, but not by much. That being said, the prices are much higher this year, and contracts seem to be selling a lot quicker, at least the ones with 25-100 points.

Ive only been watching for the last 3 months and its gone way up over the course of just 3 months. Especially the contracts of 50 points or less. They seem to be selling in minutes. I put in a few offers literally minutes after getting notification from agents and they were already gone. Most of them seem to be going for full or close to full asking, based off some offers I put in and declined to purchase.

Don't forget, with any and all contracts...

Disney has the ROFR process as well. From seeing more and more threads about it, it seems that Disney is stepping in and taking more contracts back than before. So in some instances, it doesn't matter what type of deal you're able to score, if Disney wants that back, you're SOL.

 

[mustinjourney]

So is this the first year that he has made it his personal mission to make Disney and others pony up more money in taxes? I read the article on him, and it was an interesting read. But probably not good news for those who will be on the receiving end of his capabilities. If he is able to drive up the property values (dues) of the DVCs in Florida, it could very well make Hilton Head more appealing to purchase for some. And for those who are hoping to be in the market for a Hilton Head contract, that may not be good.

I think he's been around for a few years. Less than 5. I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Disney, Universal, and Seaworld are all currently suing to get the taxes reduced. They're basically fighting over whether the value of the parks includes the goodwill that is associated with the brands, as opposed to just the intrinsic value of the land and structures -- at least that is my understanding.