Typical supply and demand for this time of year?

[SL6827]

I think he's been around for a few years. Less than 5. I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Disney, Universal, and Seaworld are all currently suing to get the taxes reduced. They're basically fighting over whether the value of the parks includes the goodwill that is associated with the brands, as opposed to just the intrinsic value of the land and structures -- at least that is my understanding.

Ok, I didn't realize all that. Not really sure if I understand it either. I was just assuming they were just basing it on the land and structures, but the other you mention, I have no clue.

 

[disneynutz]

As more people find out about resale and buy, inventory decreases and prices increase. The increase in brokers has had an impact on buying and renting. Disney will continue to increase direct prices, build new resorts, attract more interest and a percentage of buyers will go to the internet and discover the resale market. Disney knows this, that is why they continue to place restrictions and add extras for direct buyers to win buyers back.

As their ROFR take back inventory increases, expect an increase in contract minimums from 25 to 50 plus points for existing owners.

Bill

 

[Nie0214]

We locked into a contract for BLT for $114 in February (when ROFR was getting exercised like crazy) and others were getting it for $110, but I felt OK paying a little more to hopefully make it through ROFR. We closed in June (delayed closing) and the same contract was selling for $135+ then, and it's higher now. I don't expect it will go back down anytime soon with all of the D23 announcements.

 

[skippytx]

I think he's been around for a few years. Less than 5. I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Disney, Universal, and Seaworld are all currently suing to get the taxes reduced. They're basically fighting over whether the value of the parks includes the goodwill that is associated with the brands, as opposed to just the intrinsic value of the land and structures -- at least that is my understanding.

The article I read is the guy won a second term so he thinks he can make this happen without losing much political capital. I see both sides of this coin, not sure how I feel about it. There's a happy middle ground somewhere.

While not the same issue, here in Texas several companies are pushing this 'dark store' theory when it comes to property taxes. Like FL there is no state income tax, and most of our funding comes from property taxes. Historically the counties have reached a compromise agreement with the companies as actually getting a court verdict one way or the other could have serious implications for either side.
https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2017/february/dark-store.php


I saw the Four Seasons is suing as well. Not sure what the answer is. Is the property being appraised for more because it's associated with the Four Seasons? What if the same property was a Best Western? I'm sure the lawyers will make a killing arguing things for the next few years.

 

[SL6827]

I am very interested to see just how much all of the resorts dues go up this year. I know they added a little extra to HH this past year to cover hurricane Matthew, but I really don't understand a whole lot of that either. Like, will they be adding more due to Matthew, or will this particular increase be forever and permanent or will it go away once the damages were paid for? Wonder which resorts will see the largest increases, which will see the lowest increases?

 

[Wakey]

Regarding dues I read the hike BLT had last year was due to this increase in taxes, if yes it shouldn't happen again hopefully.
Re prices- they have historically dropped back Xmas and New Year. NY is a good time to buy.
The resale market has never been stronger though. I honestly think the imposition of new 'restrictions' on the non contractual DVD marketing giveaways (I'm loathed to call them perks) actually highlighted the resale market to more people who were oblivious. In that respect it backfired spectacularly.
Prices have gone up a lot since January but then again in January prices were less than they had been the previous summer. MY latest SSR has risen circa $15 a point since this January. By next January I'd expect it to have dropped back to around half that.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Regarding dues I read the hike BLT had last year was due to this increase in taxes, if yes it shouldn't happen again hopefully.

I thought I read that 10% was the max the county could raise the assessed value per year. So, I'm thinking it could continue for years until they eventually get to the full value they intend to reach. Not just BLT, but all of them.

 

[im4pacers1]

The market is going to crash. It is predicted to be the middle of next year. I imagine lots of people will sell then. Because lots will be selling and lots will be scared to buy, the prices will likely drop. I've been trying to add on a BLT contract for over a year now, but the prices are crazy. I'm definitely waiting.

 

[Wakey]

The market is going to crash. It is predicted to be the middle of next year. I imagine lots of people will sell then. Because lots will be selling and lots will be scared to buy, the prices will likely drop. I've been trying to add on a BLT contract for over a year now, but the prices are crazy. I'm definitely waiting.

Not sure on what basis you make that assessment- unless the economy crashes of course like 2011. However for the last 25 years DVC resale prices have risen surely and steadily. Unless they have hit the ceiling, which I doubt as most purchases are impulse buys after DVC tours, I expect to see the $200 a point on the Riviera at some point. We also have Star Wars Land and all these new attractions coming. This will likely push resale prices even higher IMO.
Costs will start to come down the end of the year a bit, just like they did last year when BLT was 10 higher at this time but dropped back a bit.
If you are holding on for a 'crash you may be waiting a long time albeit it does make sense waiting until Dec/ Jan to put offers in.

 

[Wakey]

I thought I read that 10% was the max the county could raise the assessed value per year. So, I'm thinking it could continue for years until they eventually get to the full value they intend to reach. Not just BLT, but all of them.

Yes I think that is correct, they increased BLT 20% From 14 to 16. So will it keep going up? I know the tax is a main driver in CCs high dues. Presumably though if they were going to bang the others up, they'd have started? Or perhaps this Singh is taking it slow and steady and if he wins in court (if it ever gets that far) he will go for the jugular in the others?

 

[GlamMistress]

The prices of hotel rooms are insane right now too. I decided to pop down to Epcot for a 4 night stay in October for food and wine. Haven't chosen my hotel yet, but the prices are eye-popping - Four Seasons is like $1300 a night now. This makes me even more eager to find a good DVC contract. That said, I'm prepared to hold on for a good deal. Some of the prices for resales right now are just laughable. So a mixed bag, but the value of DVC seems pretty secure with the prices of higher end hotel rooms continually rising.

 

[Nie0214]

The prices of hotel rooms are insane right now too. I decided to pop down to Epcot for a 4 night stay in October for food and wine. Haven't chosen my hotel yet, but the prices are eye-popping - Four Seasons is like $1300 a night now. This makes me even more eager to find a good DVC contract. That said, I'm prepared to hold on for a good deal. Some of the prices for resales right now are just laughable. So a mixed bag, but the value of DVC seems pretty secure with the prices of higher end hotel rooms continually rising.

We ultimately pushed up our timeline for a 25pt addon (resale buyers) because 4 nights at All Star Movies (which I haven't been to in a decade) was $700, and Port Orleans (where I'd stay if I'm not on dvc) was $1,300! Sorry, but a 25 point contract that also gave us access to Gold Pass and years and years of points seemed really attractive compared to throwing hundreds at a giant Mighty Ducks emblem.

 

[CarolMN]

There have been several articles written about the tax issue. Here are links to just a sampling of them:

Disney Files Lawsuits, Claims Property Tax Assessments Inaccurate

Disney suing over 'excessive' property taxes again

Disney and Cohorts Challenge Property Tax Assessments—Taxpayers Foot the Bill

Disney Battles County Over Central Florida Tax Assessments


Personally, I find it interesting that the Assessor believes hotel revenue streams should be consdiered in the valuation of the property - since the Counties already tax that revenue stream directly. Since it's unlikely that this will be settled outside of court, I look for a pretty hefty dues increase next year due to the property tax component. Best case scenario if Disney et al prevail is a refund that will come well after the fact.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

I personally feel that barring a massive 2008-like collapse, there are quite a few factors that will keep prices at current levels or higher. They are adding so much new to the parks that I think attendance is going to be even heavier than we've seen in the last 5 years of economic recovery. That is going to lead to higher room rates all around...which makes DVC look even more attractive. I think people understand how nice the extra 30 days of fastpass window staying on property is. As the poster said above, with value and moderate resorts at the inflated prices they currently are DVC makes even more sense for the yearly WDW goer that places a high value of being on property.

The strong rental market and relative ease of renting points also as helped keep prices high. I have a friend who bought a 200 BWV contract a few years ago. The last 2 years they've stayed 7 nights in a value studio there and were able to rent out the rest of their points here for $14/points. Net/net it's basically cost them nothing to stay at Disney for a week at a great resort. As long as Disney doesn't change rental restrictions I think this also helps the market stay strong.

And I think the biggest factor is the direct price Disney is able to get. Being able to pay $120 resale when others pay $170 from Disney is pretty good math for a lot of people. It seems, on average, that the spread Direct vs Resale trades at around $50. $10k on a 200pt contract is going to be too much for most to pass up. I know there are closing costs and $10k might not be the final savings....but it's enough that people endure the resale process vs the much easier direct purchase.

I think the normal increase in sellers late in the year will help a lot of the backlog of buyers looking for the "right contract". It seems there are way more than normal threads with people missing out on contracts or getting hit by ROFR so hopefully it helps those who are trying to buy.

 

[mustinjourney]

The article I read is the guy won a second term so he thinks he can make this happen without losing much political capital. I see both sides of this coin, not sure how I feel about it. There's a happy middle ground somewhere.

While not the same issue, here in Texas several companies are pushing this 'dark store' theory when it comes to property taxes. Like FL there is no state income tax, and most of our funding comes from property taxes. Historically the counties have reached a compromise agreement with the companies as actually getting a court verdict one way or the other could have serious implications for either side.
https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2017/february/dark-store.php


I saw the Four Seasons is suing as well. Not sure what the answer is. Is the property being appraised for more because it's associated with the Four Seasons? What if the same property was a Best Western? I'm sure the lawyers will make a killing arguing things for the next few years.

I think the assessed value is supposed to include the value of the structures, so it makes sense for four seasons to be higher than a best western. Four seasons tend to have nicer finishes.

Aside from the lawyers, some economists and other expert witnesses are going to make some nice cash in making valuations.