To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[DopeyBadger]

Great training update! You are doing so well - as usual.

Thanks!

G looks great in her super hero tumbling outfit. I took my son to tumbling when he was around 3 and it was total insanity. I don't know how those teachers didn't want to kill themselves. Semi-organized chaos. But, he did have fun.

Today was Wonder Woman! I agree our class is insanity too. Unfortunately, my kid is the one leading the jail break! She's still learning the ropes, but I think we had a good conversation after the class about listening to teacher.

Mad props to you for running with a WC of -2. I am so tired of cold and wind! I think all of us northerners can agree that winter needs to END.

Thanks! Bring on spring! We both know its going to be winter, winter, winter, sweltering summer... Just no room for spring here...

 

[roxymama]

Is it medicine ball night?

You got this

 

[DopeyBadger]

Is it medicine ball night?

You got this

Not at the moment. Because of G's super hero tumbling class, I switched the off day from Wednesday to Monday. So, now I run an easy day on Wednesday which isn't as conducive to a medicine ball workout anymore. I just do it one day a week on Saturday for the moment. I've toyed with doing it on Thursday mornings, but I haven't made it there yet.

 

[roxymama]

I saw that gif while looking for something else and I had to post it. Hope you don't mind my occasional weirdness

 

[DopeyBadger]

I saw that gif while looking for something else and I had to post it. Hope you don't mind my occasional weirdness

I definitely appreciate weirdness!

 

[DopeyBadger]

MARCH MADNESS!

Time for my annual attempt at winning something in all of the free online bracket games! Simple method for me:

-Use 538's power predictor rankings which are in aggregate score of several sources: ELO, BPI, Sagarin Predictor, Ken Pom, Sokol's LRMC ratings, Moore's computer rankings, selection committee's S-curve, and preseason rankings.
-Input data into an excel file.



-Take the difference between two teams PPR to determine the point spread of a basketball game.
-Using a standard deviation of 9.5 points, calculate a normal distribution of possible outcomes.



-This outputs the % chance that one team would beat another given their PPR.
-Run a simulation (one click on excel) that randomizes the outcomes of all the games based on the % chance one team would beat another.



-Input the data into an online bracket game: ESPN, CBS, Fox, Yahoo, Athlon, Bleacher Report, Jiffy, and Madison.com
-See if I can win anything.

The system is completely without input from me, but is solely based on the statistical probability of different outcomes. To verify it's accuracy to the 538 PPR ratings and possible outcomes, I compared the 83 brackets I made to see if the % outcomes matches the 538's predictions of possible outcomes:



Looks relatively good to me! Now let's see if we've got any winners in there! Wish me luck!

 

[michigandergirl]

MARCH MADNESS!

Time for my annual attempt at winning something in all of the free online bracket games! Simple method for me:

-Use 538's power predictor rankings which are in aggregate score of several sources: ELO, BPI, Sagarin Predictor, Ken Pom, Sokol's LRMC ratings, Moore's computer rankings, selection committee's S-curve, and preseason rankings.
-Input data into an excel file.

View attachment 225873

-Take the difference between two teams PPR to determine the point spread of a basketball game.
-Using a standard deviation of 9.5 points, calculate a normal distribution of possible outcomes.

View attachment 225872

-This outputs the % chance that one team would beat another given their PPR.
-Run a simulation (one click on excel) that randomizes the outcomes of all the games based on the % chance one team would beat another.

View attachment 225875

-Input the data into an online bracket game: ESPN, CBS, Fox, Yahoo, Athlon, Bleacher Report, Jiffy, and Madison.com
-See if I can win anything.

The system is completely without input from me, but is solely based on the statistical probability of different outcomes. To verify it's accuracy to the 538 PPR ratings and possible outcomes, I compared the 83 brackets I made to see if the % outcomes matches the 538's predictions of possible outcomes:

View attachment 225874

Looks relatively good to me! Now let's see if we've got any winners in there! Wish me luck!

Holy cow! I wish I would have read this before I turned my bracket in, but then again, I do tend to glaze over when there's math involved...

Good luck! I've got Gonzaga going all the way, but my heart will always be with the Spartans.

 

[FFigawi]

I saw that gif while looking for something else and I had to post it. Hope you don't mind my occasional weirdness

And @DopeyBadger you ought to put your money where your geekiness is and enter my pool. It's only $5.

http://www.thesengers.net/pool

 

[DopeyBadger]

Holy cow! I wish I would have read this before I turned my bracket in, but then again, I do tend to glaze over when there's math involved...

Good luck! I've got Gonzaga going all the way, but my heart will always be with the Spartans.

LOL, we'll see what happens. Gonzaga has a 14% chance to win!

And @DopeyBadger you ought to put your money where your geekiness is and enter my pool. It's only $5.

LOL, John looks like it's a little late as the first game has started already.

Here's a random one for you for fun though:

 

[FFigawi]

You can still enter so long as you used one you published already.

 

[DopeyBadger]

You can still enter so long as you used one you published already.

Choose a number between 1-83 and that's the bracket I'll input.

 

[pixarmom]

First, I love your Monday update and the fact that you are your own experiment.

Agree with @roxymama regarding the 3-year-old classes. Better that the energy is contained in a gym than unleashed on the soccer field! We have a couple in our family who became difficult to chase down - helpful to be a parent who is also a runner!

Also, enjoying your method for March Madness! I simply select the school I prefer - maybe because it's located in a warm climate, or I like the colors, or because I know someone who went there, or I lived in that state once. I occasionally look at the seeding. This is how I took 2nd place in a lakeshore dorm pool 25 years ago, so just sayin . . .

 

[DopeyBadger]

First, I love your Monday update and the fact that you are your own experiment.

Thanks! Like an old school scientist testing the materials on themselves.

Agree with @roxymama regarding the 3-year-old classes. Better that the energy is contained in a gym than unleashed on the soccer field! We have a couple in our family who became difficult to chase down - helpful to be a parent who is also a runner!

EEK, soccer is coming up soon!

Also, enjoying your method for March Madness! I simply select the school I prefer - maybe because it's located in a warm climate, or I like the colors, or because I know someone who went there, or I lived in that state once. I occasionally look at the seeding. This is how I took 2nd place in a lakeshore dorm pool 25 years ago, so just sayin . . .

I used to try and come up with an algorithm based on historical bracket years and trends. But I've decided that I needed to remove my input from the randomization. Thus, the current system. I've got no idea what's going to happen, but all I'm going for is one good bracket out of 83 to try and win something. On ESPN all you have to be is top 1% and then it's a random drawing from there. So outside maybe the top 5 champ choices, if you get the champ right you're near guaranteed to be top 1%. Then it's up to a random drawing for $50,000. I'll take those odds for free.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Finally the first upset of the tournament: Middle Tennessee over Minnesota. A 12 seed over a 5 seed... Not so fast!



MTSU was ranked 44th in the 538 aggregate and Minnesota was 45th. Their PPR scores indicate that going into this game it was a near 50/50 probability and with a VERY slight edge to MTSU. Interesting! That's a really poorly seeded 5 seed Minnesota!

 

[DopeyBadger]

There is the 1st upset: NW over Vandy (although an 8 over a 9). Vandy was a 1 pt favorite and had a 55% probability to win.

 

[Sleepless Knight]

Finally the first upset of the tournament: Middle Tennessee over Minnesota. A 12 seed over a 5 seed... Not so fast!

MTSU was ranked 44th in the 538 aggregate and Minnesota was 45th. Their PPR scores indicate that going into this game it was a near 50/50 probability and with a VERY slight edge to MTSU. Interesting! That's a really poorly seeded 5 seed Minnesota!

The BCS basketball tournament would be far more compelling and much more interesting if the selection committee was blind. They would only see numbers such as RPI, record, wins and losses against top 50 and so forth, strength of schedule, etc. Instead, they see a school's name so they know the conference and overlook precisely these kinds of issues. The current method always leads to some better and more deserving team getting either a bad seed because their name isn't popular or left out altogether because of their name while some average team from a popular conference gets in and stinks the place up.

 

[DopeyBadger]

The BCS basketball tournament would be far more compelling and much more interesting if the selection committee was blind. They would only see numbers such as RPI, record, wins and losses against top 50 and so forth, strength of schedule, etc. Instead, they see a school's name so they know the conference and overlook precisely these kinds of issues. The current method always leads to some better and more deserving team getting either a bad seed because their name isn't popular or left out altogether because of their name while some average team from a popular conference gets in and stinks the place up.

For Minnesota, it was a case of a team with a really good RPI, but every other metric out there said they weren't actually that good. The committee over relies on RPI when there are much better statistical models for how good a team is out there. Completely agree that a blind process would be nice.

 

[FFigawi]

Choose a number between 1-83 and that's the bracket I'll input.

68

 

[DopeyBadger]

68

Looks like #68 is Athlon #2.



I'll input this bracket.

 

[DopeyBadger]

68

Alright submitted and paid. I sent $5.50 because I used a CC.