To Buy 2042 or not to buy 2042

Ah, I wouldn’t buy 2042 under any circumstance I can think of. The prices are steep. If you hold on for 19 years, you held it to expiration and it’s worthless. If you tire of Disney, you have nothing to sell back. If you love Disney, you’ll have nothing and have to repurchase.

The time decay is going to work against you. Say your dues are $10pp. In reality, they are effectively adjusted higher as the resale value is rapidly falling into expiration. In theory, the value of your resort in the final year in resale will be roughly the dues for that year. So if you buy a 2042 at $150pp, that contract price will drop in an accelerated fashion as you approach 2042. At, say, 2032, the value of that contract may be declining at an annual $10-15pp.

So your effective resort dues would be $20-25pp in that final decade. You’re paying $10pp, and losing $10-15 a year in contract resale value. That depreciation is costing you just as annual dues are. You’re either holding an asset that’s declining in value because at 2042 it’s worthless, so you hold that $150 into the ground, or if you want to resell it in 2033 vs. 2032, you paid a year of dues plus the decayed value of that contract. So if you’re avoiding Vero Beach because of $12pp dues, imagine a 2042 where your effective dues are $20+pp. You're only a decade away from that when you buy into a 2042 at $150-200pp.

If you buy at a 2060+, time decay is irrelevant for 25 years. I would buy a 2060 and find availability at 7 months at 2042 in a 1-2 bedroom. It’s cheaper than a 2042 when you figure that $150 is going to zero while your 2060’s $150 is still $150, ignoring ebbs/flows and holding all else constant with DVC resale prices
 
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I look for the 2042 resort dues to decline as the end date approaches. The capital reserve account contributions should decline so that the ending balance is zero (or the money left in the account should be returned to the owners).

Making a luxury purchase is not just about the money. I've said this before: Good deals are soon forgotten if you aren't staying where you want to be. I like BLT, Poly, SSR & AKV, and very occasionally, we stay at one of them for a few nights, but those resorts are not the BWV, and the BWV are where I want to be.
 
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If you get a 2042 resort at the right price it is fine to buy.

Each individual has to define what their right price is.
 
The real question is what happens when these things are actually expiring. Do they offer current owners an incredible deal to sign up for another whatever many years? What happens with dues? How much are points worth in general in 20 years?

I still feel like you can book at most places at 7 months. I own Poly and I've made most of my bookings at the 2 month or less mark. I've never stayed at Poly but have stayed at BWV, VGF twice, and BLT twice.

This has been answered already, how much extra would I pay on a small contract today for maybe VGF vs BWV and its only about 1K difference for double the time of vacations...of course more years = more dues...but to rebuy the contract in 20 could cost more in the long run assuming I'm buying at the same price as today. Maybe all of this stuff is worthless in 20 years. But if it is not and as others have pointed it, if I feel like selling in 20 years at least I can have some sort of return at that point.

I love BWV and the prices are good right now across the board. I do believe the prices are coming down hard due to the economic situation and over saturation of resale and new contracts and soon more new contacts. I almost just went BWV but the extra years of vacation time for very slightly more money at today's prices makes a difference to me.
 


The real question is what happens when these things are actually expiring. Do they offer current owners an incredible deal to sign up for another whatever many years? What happens with dues? How much are points worth in general in 20 years?

I still feel like you can book at most places at 7 months. I own Poly and I've made most of my bookings at the 2 month or less mark. I've never stayed at Poly but have stayed at BWV, VGF twice, and BLT twice.

This has been answered already, how much extra would I pay on a small contract today for maybe VGF vs BWV and its only about 1K difference for double the time of vacations...of course more years = more dues...but to rebuy the contract in 20 could cost more in the long run assuming I'm buying at the same price as today. Maybe all of this stuff is worthless in 20 years. But if it is not and as others have pointed it, if I feel like selling in 20 years at least I can have some sort of return at that point.

I love BWV and the prices are good right now across the board. I do believe the prices are coming down hard due to the economic situation and over saturation of resale and new contracts and soon more new contacts. I almost just went BWV but the extra years of vacation time for very slightly more money at today's prices makes a difference to me.
The the late 2030’s economy will have a lot to say about that.
 
The the late 2030’s economy will have a lot to say about that.

100% to the economy piece.

And how much do people love Disney at that point too. There is a lot of nostalgia with it now, people love the original rides and such because of when the parks opened and wanting to share with their children. Are future adults still in love with it or does something else capture the hearts/minds in the future. What does universal look like, will Super Mario be the new Mickey?

I hope Disney is still what it is today and more so.
 
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100% to the economy piece.

How about a DeSantis presidency? I'm a moderate (slightly liberal) conservative, if there are still any of those, but I know some people love that he fights with Disney. How does that impact things.

And how much do people love Disney at that point too. There is a lot of nostalgia with it now, people love the original rides and such because of when the parks opened and wanting to share with their children. Are future adults still in love with it or does something else capture the hearts/minds in the future. What does universal look like, will Super Mario be the new Mickey?

I hope Disney is still what it is today and more so.
None of this 2023/2024 stuff will have any impact on 2036-2041
 


Partially true, partially a fallacy.
It's like saying, "dollars go a lot further at Motel 6 compared to Grand Floridian!"

It's not exactly that points go further, it's just that the resort is cheaper. For $50, you can get 1 real steak at a steakhouse, or you can get 25 hamburgers at McDonalds. So does $50 go further at McDonalds than at a steakhouse?

Add in the fact that, you can use your points across resorts at 7 months. So if you want your GFV points to "go as far" as BWV points, you can just use them at BWV, subject to 7 month availability.
Not sure that McD’s/Outback = BWV/VGF 😂 This thread shows some BWV passed at $110. I think VGF resale is probably 140 or more??
2 weeks in Jan:
BWV-146 Points (@110=16K) MF=1245
VGF-250 Points (@140=35K) MF= 1832
And, since we prefer EPCOT & DHS over MK, and are in our 60s, 20 years at BWV would be a much better deal.
7mo at BWV is hard to get - got a waitlist there once, and that was at tail end of COVID.
Only thing that sways this is that I have $0 to recoup in 2042 from BWV, but would have some resale $$ potential with VGF
 
If you are thinking 30 years - then Direct, so you never have to fuss about Blue Card benefits is a good Long Term decision. Disney tends to Grandfather a number of things, so that might be important. You can buy Direct without it being Grand Floridian or Riviera, of course - Disney likely has all the Resorts available - just ask - and be prepared to pick a Use Year and ask for banked points to offset the costs. As many have said, Buy where you want to stay since that 11 month (or whatever advantage is available in the future) makes all the difference during certain seasons. And picking the One, is Often emotional. Personally, I thought I'd like XX over XX because I like the walk to the XX, but when I went and actually wandered thru my five top choices I found it soooo easy to pick the one that suited me. Be sure to plan a trip to do just that - picking your Home Resort should not be done from photos or a trip five years ago where you walked thru :) All that said, a budget is a budget, and the points you need for a 3 day nite stay, or 6 nites every other year may be plenty for your budget for a purchase, and for annual fees - so that may be resale. Pick the resort, and run some calculations for points (rounding up a bit) to see how many points you Really need. There is a good "points calc" here - again, round up a little as the point charts DO change a few points +/- over the years. https://www.***********/page/dvc-cost-points-calculator (sorry, blocked, but you can do your own calculations with a point chart too).
 
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Not sure that McD’s/Outback = BWV/VGF 😂 This thread shows some BWV passed at $110. I think VGF resale is probably 140 or more??
2 weeks in Jan:
BWV-146 Points (@110=16K) MF=1245
VGF-250 Points (@140=35K) MF= 1832
And, since we prefer EPCOT & DHS over MK, and are in our 60s, 20 years at BWV would be a much better deal.
7mo at BWV is hard to get - got a waitlist there once, and that was at tail end of COVID.
Only thing that sways this is that I have $0 to recoup in 2042 from BWV, but would have some resale $$ potential with VGF

and that resale is financially defining. Cut about $30,000-$50,000 off the price of VGF.
 
and that resale is financially defining. Cut about $30,000-$50,000 off the price of VGF.
You would have to recoup $30K just to break even in that scenario, and who knows what the resale value of VGF will be in 2042 ??
So after this, and a whole bunch of other pencil-whipping exercises, I think we will still be looking to pick up some BWV in the very near future.
 
You would have to recoup $30K just to break even in that scenario, and who knows what the resale value of VGF will be in 2042 ??
So after this, and a whole bunch of other pencil-whipping exercises, I think we will still be looking to pick up some BWV in the very near future.

For January, you can usually get a good selection at 7 months. So go ahead and buy 150 points at GFV... but let's assume you really are solely home resort booking..

Best we can do is use 2023 dollars. With inflation, dues will be higher, resale prices will likely be higher. (By 2042, even if GFV re-sale goes down in real dollars, it will likely be much higher in nominal dollars. )

So even under this extreme stress test, in 2042, after re-selling GFV, accounting for purchase price, plus dues plus re-sale, in 2023 dollars: We get total cost of ownership at BWV as $38,000 and GFV as $33,000.
And for the $38,000 at BWV, you can get 2 weeks at BWV, for about 8 nights at GFV in in January.
or, for $33,000, you can (in January) get 2 weeks at GFV in a studio or 10 nights in a standard 1 BR at BWV or over 3 weeks in a BWV studio.

So spend $5,000 less --- and get far far more options.
 
Not sure that McD’s/Outback = BWV/VGF 😂 This thread shows some BWV passed at $110. I think VGF resale is probably 140 or more??
2 weeks in Jan:
BWV-146 Points (@110=16K) MF=1245
VGF-250 Points (@140=35K) MF= 1832
And, since we prefer EPCOT & DHS over MK, and are in our 60s, 20 years at BWV would be a much better deal.
7mo at BWV is hard to get - got a waitlist there once, and that was at tail end of COVID.
Only thing that sways this is that I have $0 to recoup in 2042 from BWV, but would have some resale $$ potential with VGF
I love this analogy lol....also I love McD's and Outbook.

So even under this extreme stress test, in 2042, after re-selling GFV, accounting for purchase price, plus dues plus re-sale, in 2023 dollars: We get total cost of ownership at BWV as $38,000 and GFV as $33,000.
And for the $38,000 at BWV, you can get 2 weeks at BWV, for about 8 nights at GFV in in January.
or, for $33,000, you can (in January) get 2 weeks at GFV in a studio or 10 nights in a standard 1 BR at BWV or over 3 weeks in a BWV studio.

So spend $5,000 less --- and get far far more options.
I had originally thought I could get a BWV contact for $110 per, I couldn't get the sellers to lower past $122, this for a 25 point contract. I ended up with a VGF with 40 points for $137 per...it just made way more sense dollars to dollars especially when you add in the extra years. Even though I'm spending $2,500 more today but I'm getting more points but if I weren't it would be only $400 dollars more and FAR MORE. No way I rebuy in 20 years and it costs $400 more or even $2,500 more for 20 more years. Who knows if it passes ROFR but hoping it does.
 
I am here right now- buy 2042 or not. I really really want to get a BCV contract or BWV because that's where we actually LOVE to stay. I'm late 40s and by the time it runs out who knows if I will even want to still travel. So far, being flexible, we've stayed where we have wanted, with the exception I wanted to go to Aulani this year and was completely unable to in the summer. So I guess for me, I will stay with my SSR and possibly try to add on some more points there if pricing continues to dip.

FWIW- hubby says go ahead and find us a BCV contract lol.
 
I am here right now- buy 2042 or not. I really really want to get a BCV contract or BWV because that's where we actually LOVE to stay. I'm late 40s and by the time it runs out who knows if I will even want to still travel. So far, being flexible, we've stayed where we have wanted, with the exception I wanted to go to Aulani this year and was completely unable to in the summer. So I guess for me, I will stay with my SSR and possibly try to add on some more points there if pricing continues to dip.

FWIW- hubby says go ahead and find us a BCV contract lol.
We own at SSR and BRV, but BCV is our preferred "Epcot" resort (staying there again this July). Late 50's here, so our motto is definitely "buy where you want to stay", but we did buy our first 150 point direct contract at SSR because it got us a blue card and with the 2054 expiry, we can pass it along to the next generation if they are interested. Being close to 90 in 2054, I'm not really anticipating any strong personal need for those points. A 2070 contract will really do me no good at 106. Most of our points are at BRV (325).
 
Buying BWV at $110 vs VGF at $140 give you about the same return based on my math. Two advantages of BWV though because of the cheaper price:
  1. You can buy more points at the same budget.
  2. You break-even more quickly because you paid a lot less up front per point. In that way, it's a less risky purchase than VGF.
Just to say, discount your future cash flows, folks. And 2042 resorts aren't all bad purchases.

ResortNPVIRRPointsPrice / PointEstimated Closing2023 DuesDues
Inflation
Expiration20232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042
Grand Floridian Resale12,84817%150$140$875$7.333.1%2064-$19,525$2,454$2,563$2,676$2,794$2,917$3,045$3,179$3,318$3,463$3,615$3,773$3,938$4,109$4,288$4,475$4,670$4,873$5,084$42,542
Boardwalk11,95718%200$110$875$8.533.1%2042-$19,981$3,025$3,162$3,305$3,454$3,609$3,772$3,941$4,117$4,302$4,494$4,695$4,904$5,122$5,350$5,587$5,835$6,094$6,363
 
Buying BWV at $110 vs VGF at $140 give you about the same return based on my math. Two advantages of BWV though because of the cheaper price:
  1. You can buy more points at the same budget.
  2. You break-even more quickly because you paid a lot less up front per point. In that way, it's a less risky purchase than VGF.
Just to say, discount your future cash flows, folks. And 2042 resorts aren't all bad purchases.

ResortNPVIRRPointsPrice / PointEstimated Closing2023 DuesDues
Inflation
Expiration20232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042
Grand Floridian Resale12,84817%150$140$875$7.333.1%2064-$19,525$2,454$2,563$2,676$2,794$2,917$3,045$3,179$3,318$3,463$3,615$3,773$3,938$4,109$4,288$4,475$4,670$4,873$5,084$42,542
Boardwalk11,95718%200$110$875$8.533.1%2042-$19,981$3,025$3,162$3,305$3,454$3,609$3,772$3,941$4,117$4,302$4,494$4,695$4,904$5,122$5,350$5,587$5,835$6,094$6,363

Does this assume VGF is worth $0 in 2042 if one wanted to sell?
 
Does this assume VGF is worth $0 in 2042 if one wanted to sell?
If you assign a value of 50% what you paid per point for VGF (which historically would be a conservative estimate) I wonder what the current value to purchase Boardwalk would have to be in comparison to VGF.
 

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