Ah, I wouldn’t buy 2042 under any circumstance I can think of. The prices are steep. If you hold on for 19 years, you held it to expiration and it’s worthless. If you tire of Disney, you have nothing to sell back. If you love Disney, you’ll have nothing and have to repurchase.
The time decay is going to work against you. Say your dues are $10pp. In reality, they are effectively adjusted higher as the resale value is rapidly falling into expiration. In theory, the value of your resort in the final year in resale will be roughly the dues for that year. So if you buy a 2042 at $150pp, that contract price will drop in an accelerated fashion as you approach 2042. At, say, 2032, the value of that contract may be declining at an annual $10-15pp.
So your effective resort dues would be $20-25pp in that final decade. You’re paying $10pp, and losing $10-15 a year in contract resale value. That depreciation is costing you just as annual dues are. You’re either holding an asset that’s declining in value because at 2042 it’s worthless, so you hold that $150 into the ground, or if you want to resell it in 2033 vs. 2032, you paid a year of dues plus the decayed value of that contract. So if you’re avoiding Vero Beach because of $12pp dues, imagine a 2042 where your effective dues are $20+pp. You're only a decade away from that when you buy into a 2042 at $150-200pp.
If you buy at a 2060+, time decay is irrelevant for 25 years. I would buy a 2060 and find availability at 7 months at 2042 in a 1-2 bedroom. It’s cheaper than a 2042 when you figure that $150 is going to zero while your 2060’s $150 is still $150, ignoring ebbs/flows and holding all else constant with DVC resale prices
The time decay is going to work against you. Say your dues are $10pp. In reality, they are effectively adjusted higher as the resale value is rapidly falling into expiration. In theory, the value of your resort in the final year in resale will be roughly the dues for that year. So if you buy a 2042 at $150pp, that contract price will drop in an accelerated fashion as you approach 2042. At, say, 2032, the value of that contract may be declining at an annual $10-15pp.
So your effective resort dues would be $20-25pp in that final decade. You’re paying $10pp, and losing $10-15 a year in contract resale value. That depreciation is costing you just as annual dues are. You’re either holding an asset that’s declining in value because at 2042 it’s worthless, so you hold that $150 into the ground, or if you want to resell it in 2033 vs. 2032, you paid a year of dues plus the decayed value of that contract. So if you’re avoiding Vero Beach because of $12pp dues, imagine a 2042 where your effective dues are $20+pp. You're only a decade away from that when you buy into a 2042 at $150-200pp.
If you buy at a 2060+, time decay is irrelevant for 25 years. I would buy a 2060 and find availability at 7 months at 2042 in a 1-2 bedroom. It’s cheaper than a 2042 when you figure that $150 is going to zero while your 2060’s $150 is still $150, ignoring ebbs/flows and holding all else constant with DVC resale prices
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