The VGF 2 pricing thread

[Einstein509]

The Riviera is on the Skyliner, which Disney has been marketing hard. The Skyliner is in one of their current ads (and one that I see on TV all the time), with the RIV prominently appearing:

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The Skyliner places the RIV within easy reach of two theme parks.

Look at the Riviera point chart. It's just as expensive as VGF or PVB. Disney is selling RIV as if it's just as good as a Monorail Resort. Do you think they really want to position RIV as inferior by selling VGF2 for more?

Disney spent tens-of-millions tearing down Caribbean Beach Resort and building the RIV from scratch:

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VGF2 is a quick turnaround of a 34 year-old building. Based on information released so far, Big Pine Key will get a paint job and new furniture & carpeting.

Having stayed at both VGF and RIV in 2021, RIV is a nice facility, on par with the Grand Floridian. Newer everything at RIV and no need to walk outside to reach the lobby or food court. The RIV has a very nice pool and an excellent restaurant on the top floor.

Rumor is that the Grand Floridian may not be the flagship in a few years. The Four Seasons already has put the Grand Floridian to shame (that's where those who want real luxury stay), and Disney is trying to determine if they can build a new resort on this plot of land to rival the Four Seasons (if they can economically solve its bedrock issues):

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I just don't see VGF2 selling for more than RIV.

Riviera's location on the Skyliner is not a great selling point. Have you seen the lines? It goes down sometimes and the buses don't do the guests any favors. I've experienced both in terms of long lines and having to bus somewhere because the system went down. So I wouldn't term the Riviera as "easy access" to two parks. That category is for BCV and BWV since you can walk to both parks.

Again, for me it's location. It's a simple real estate term/idea and VGF has it. There's a reason Riviera is not selling despite Disney pushing the exact things you mention. People see through that......but I acknowledge that some don't or they have not experienced the location. Again, VGF was the highest priced direct.....there's a reason for that.

I've seen these lines especially at park closing or after fireworks and they are not fun. I thoroughly enjoy having the ability walk to my resort (BCV, BWV, VGF, Poly, BLT) and avoid the transportation lines. We can agree to disagree and like I said, I'm in the minority here, but we'll find out soon enough what the price will be. I'll be the first one to admit if I'm wrong.

 

[Jwaire]

I don’t know. Anaheim is a different animal compared to Orlando. There are 14 resorts to choose from in Orlando. In Anaheim, there is only one. And because of the stifling politics, DLT will probably be it’s last DVC for a long time. Also, DLT is 2-3 years away, which means 2-3 more years of inflation. Maybe I‘m just girding my loins a bit too much.

If you take them at their word for the Disneyland Forward project, Disneyland Hotel plays a huge role ($$$$+) in that expansion too. But that project could just be hype for property rights and taxes. We've heard a similar song and dance before.

https://disneylandforward.com/project/possibilities

 

[Sandisw]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I agree with Jelly. This is Disney's flagship resort, top of the line. You can't compare it with Riviera. Riviera doesn't even come close. We're talking location (walk to MK, monorail), grandeur, dining options (also walk to Poly). There's so much more at the Floridian than there's at Riviera.

So with that said, it's very likely the price will be higher than $207. Probably not as high as the $255 direct, but certainly not the same price as Riviera. Disney likely knows there's demand for VGF based on direct sales so they will price it accordingly. I'm thinking it's going to be somewhere around $220.

Again, it's their flagship resort, why would they sell it at the same price as Riviera? That would "cheapen the brand." There's a reason VGF was the highest priced resort for direct sales.

I stay at both and don't agree that VGF is heads over better than RIV. I personally prefer RIV to VGF. Everyone can certainly have an opinion about RIV vs. VGF, but from DVD's standpoint, and the guides standpoint, they both will be touted as fantastic options.

A new buyer has to get at least 150 points...if the price difference is $50/point more....which some are suggesting...that is over $7K difference for a resort that is studio heavy, and expires 6 years earlier...sure, it is near MK and for families with little ones, some may decide it will be worth it...but when they sell DVC, they sell the ability to trade to other resorts at 7 months.

Having two properties similar in price...one Epcot, and one MK...allows them to gear the sales pitch to the individual buyer and say "Well, since you know you want to be near MK a lot, VGF might meet your needs."...or "Oh, HS is your families favorite park? Then RIV might be the better choice because of the Skyliner".

Vs. "Well, you want MK? Then buy VGF even though it will cost you $7K more because getting in there at 7 months with the less expensive RIV points will be tough." Hmmm...not sure that helps one sell the product very well.

Again, we all are just speculating, but given the depressed sales overall right now, and the quick turnaround of the VGF building, it just seems hard to believe that the strategy will be a huge difference in price...unless they don't want to sell it..which in that case, why do it?

 

[Sandisw]

Riviera's location on the Skyliner is not a great selling point. Have you seen the lines? It goes down sometimes and the buses don't do the guests any favors. I've experienced both in terms of long lines and having to bus somewhere because the system went down. So I wouldn't term the Riviera as "easy access" to two parks. That category is for BCV and BWV since you can walk to both parks.

Again, for me it's location. It's a simple real estate term/idea and VGF has it. There's a reason Riviera is not selling despite Disney pushing the exact things you mention. People see through that......but I acknowledge that some don't or they have not experienced the location. Again, VGF was the highest priced direct.....there's a reason for that.

I've seen these lines especially at park closing or after fireworks and they are not fun. I thoroughly enjoy having the ability walk to my resort (BCV, BWV, VGF, Poly, BLT) and avoid the transportation lines. We can agree to disagree and like I said, I'm in the minority here, but we'll find out soon enough what the price will be. I'll be the first one to admit if I'm wrong.
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I have waited in lines that long for buses and the monorail too. The difference was that the Skyliner moved a lot faster at park closing than it did with those other options. Granted, we only did the Skyliner at close once...we usually leave parks before closing now....but definitely have experienced long waits with the monorail when staying at VGF before the walkway...

 

[Jwaire]

Riviera's location on the Skyliner is not a great selling point. Have you seen the lines? It goes down sometimes and the buses don't do the guests any favors. I've experienced both in terms of long lines and having to bus somewhere because the system went down. So I wouldn't term the Riviera as "easy access" to two parks. That category is for BCV and BWV since you can walk to both parks.

Rivera was strategically placed there. Disney could have built the Skyliner to directly connect Epcot and Hollywood Studios, but they chose to detour it to Rivera and Caribbean Beach to sell those properties. I even wonder if they don't intend to demolish Caribbean Beach someday (it's the oldest moderate resort) and fully build out Rivera Part II in its place.

I think the jury is out on Skyliner. Guests love it. People ride it just to ride it. It's the new monorail, except you get a semi-private cab. I just got back a few weeks ago and it was the one positive thing people were talking about. I saw a kid throwing a fit because he wanted to take the Skyliner to Magic Kingdom.

Do I agree with you on BCV and BWV as being more convenient? Yeah, but they're older, "sold out" and not marketable.

The poor monorail. The monorail has more issues now than ever. Of the three days of my trip last month I was in the Magic Kingdom area, it was towed off the beams TWICE. They haven't kept up the maintenance on the trains (broke speakers, stuck doors, etc.) and the new holding safety protocols make it much less efficient. I hope they give it the love it deserves with new trains and a modern safety system soon.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Rivera was strategically placed there. Disney could have built the Skyliner to directly connect Epcot and Hollywood Studios, but they chose to detour it to Rivera and Caribbean Beach to sell those properties. I even wonder if they don't intend to demolish Caribbean Beach someday (it's the oldest moderate resort) and fully build out Rivera Part II in its place.

I think the jury is out on Skyliner. Guests love it. People ride it just to ride it. It's the new monorail, except you get a semi-private cab. I just got back a few weeks ago and it was the one positive thing people were talking about. I saw a kid throwing a fit because he wanted to take the Skyliner to Magic Kingdom.

Do I agree with you on BCV and BWV as being more convenient? Yeah, but they're older, "sold out" and not marketable.

The poor monorail. The monorail has more issues now than ever. Of the three days of my trip last month I was in the Magic Kingdom area, it was towed off the beams TWICE. They haven't kept up the maintenance on the trains (broke speakers, stuck doors, etc.) and the new holding safety protocols make it much less efficient. I hope they give it the love it deserves with new trains and a modern safety system soon.

You raise a good point. I too got stuck at Riviera when the skyliner shutdown because of weather. But to be honest, I saw every form of transportation go down at some point due to weather or maintenance issues. And at park closing at every park, the lines for EVERY mode of transportation are nuts! I think the skyliner receives an unfair amount of criticism compared to other modes of transport. And yeah, I saw the monorail get stuck so many times between MK and the Contemporary. That’s why nothing beats relying on your own two feet to get to and from the parks. Thats why the 3 B’s reign supreme for me.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I don’t know. Anaheim is a different animal compared to Orlando. There are 14 resorts to choose from in Orlando. In Anaheim, there is only one. And because of the stifling politics, DLT will probably be it’s last DVC for a long time. Also, DLT is 2-3 years away, which means 2-3 more years of inflation. Maybe I‘m just girding my loins a bit too much.

GF is supposed to be the premier hotel at WDW. DLH is supposed to be the 2nd best hotel at DLR. It’s also at a resort where the majority of guests are locals, it’s also quite a walk to the parks, and the DVC tower is going to be even further still. You can stay at a dozen hotels in Anaheim that are a shorter walk to Disneyland than the Disneyland Hotel’s DVC tower will be. There’s also effectively no onsite advantages at DLR. it is a different animal but I think in the opposite of the way that you think.

And yes, there will be inflation, but it will be the same with Riviera and Aulani too. I imagine we’ll see an opening price of $213 if it opens next year (still in play) or $220 if it slips to 2024.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

And because of the stifling politics, DLT will probably be it’s last DVC for a long time

Anaheim’s zoning commission approved the Disneyland DVC project unanimously the first time Disney asked, and the city council didn’t even ask for public comment on it. Things were brutal between Anaheim and Disney circa 2015 but the entire council has turned over since then.

 

[DisneyKim41]

How will they work resale restrictions with Grand Floridian 2? Do we think it will have same restrictions as Riviera?

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

How will they work resale restrictions with Grand Floridian 2? Do we think it will have same restrictions as Riviera?

I know it’s 42 pages and no one wants to start from the beginning but this question has been asked and answered many times in this thread.

Edit: Apologize for my curtness. It's a great question and appreciate you participating in the boards. Thanks @HIRyeDVC for answering the general consensus below.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

How will they work resale restrictions with Grand Floridian 2? Do we think it will have same restrictions as Riviera?

The new building is part of the same condo association so the assumption is that it will not have resale restrictions. But no one knows for sure yet.

 

[BrianLo]

What if Disney spent less than 10$ a point converting Big Pine into DVC? Which is what they probably did. This is why they'll happily sell them 'for cheap' at 207$.

 

[Nabas]

What if Disney spent less than 10$ a point converting Big Pine into DVC? Which is what they probably did. This is why they'll happily sell them 'for cheap' at 207$.

Right but DVD has to buy the building from Disney before DVD can sell points.

The Grand Floridian hotel is going to lose revenue from that building forever. Presumably, DVD will pay fair market value.

 

[CarolMN]

Right but DVD has to buy the building from Disney before DVD can sell points.

The Grand Floridian hotel is going to lose revenue from that building forever. Presumably, DVD will pay fair market value.

It's probably going to be just an accounting adjustment between departments and not a problem. Resorts wouldn't be willing to give up the building if the GF was filling all of its rooms. It's not. This is a win for the GF Resort. They get rid of excess capacity (that they can't sell at the current rates) and they get to transfer a proportionate share of the common expenses to DVC.

 

[Nabas]

It's probably going to be just an accounting adjustment between departments and not a problem. Resorts wouldn't be willing to give up the building if the GF was filling all of its rooms. It's not. This is a win for the GF Resort. They get rid of excess capacity (that they can't sell at the current rates) and they get to transfer a proportionate share of the common expenses to DVC.

I understand what you're saying but if Disney is like most corporations, one division doesn't just give away an asset to another division. The Grand Floridian hotel is losing a physical asset, plus the revenue generated by that asset. I'm guessing this has to be a formal transfer, with the cost of the transfer being registered as a cost against the points to be sold.

My point is, the "cost" of VGF2 is going to be recorded as more than the money spent on converting the building. I believe it's also going to be the cost of DVD acquiring the building. Yes, it's (mostly) a "bookkeeping thing", but I suspect DVD's gross margin is going to be based on the cost of the building, any improvements made during conversion, plus the overhead cost (including commission) of sale.

@BrianLo wrote:

What if Disney spent less than 10$ a point converting Big Pine into DVC? Which is what they probably did. This is why they'll happily sell them 'for cheap' at 207$.​

I'm simply saying that the cost of selling VGF2 is going to be a lot more than the cost of converting the Big Pine Key building.

Even with those additional costs, the profit margin at $207 is still going to be huge.

 

[jbreen2010]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I agree with Jelly. This is Disney's flagship resort, top of the line. You can't compare it with Riviera. Riviera doesn't even come close. We're talking location (walk to MK, monorail), grandeur, dining options (also walk to Poly). There's so much more at the Floridian than there's at Riviera.

So with that said, it's very likely the price will be higher than $207. Probably not as high as the $255 direct, but certainly not the same price as Riviera. Disney likely knows there's demand for VGF based on direct sales so they will price it accordingly. I'm thinking it's going to be somewhere around $220.

Again, it's their flagship resort, why would they sell it at the same price as Riviera? That would "cheapen the brand." There's a reason VGF was the highest priced resort for direct sales.

i agree with you both here.
I get it - RIV is supposed to also be extremely luxurious…but in comparing grand Floridian I just feel like GF is their flagship hotel. 10 min walk on newly paved walkway to MK, being on the historic monorail loop, large sized studios being added (which I believe are the hardest category to book).

initally I was thinking this would start to sell at $250…my guess is somewhere $225-$240 range with incentives. Likely higher incentives for current DVC members than new members (putting it on a more level playing field for current members trying to add on and still just a slight premium for new DVC members.)

Plus if Disney reads these boards and sees the excitement with this release (so many people saying they would easily pay $201 or $207), why would you not go in at $225 just to squeeze a few more bucks. I’m sure it’s a delicate straddle between having 100 people say they def want it at $207/pt vs 95 saying I’ll still take it at $225.

I would think they want to sell this for a few years here so I’m also thinking they’re not trying to move all 2Million points in 2022.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

What if Disney spent less than 10$ a point converting Big Pine into DVC? Which is what they probably did. This is why they'll happily sell them 'for cheap' at 207$.

My rough guesstimate is that it will wind up more like $15-$20/point, assuming they re-drywall and buy super durable furniture etc. Still a lot cheaper than a new build.

 

[BrianLo]

I understand what you're saying but if Disney is like most corporations, one division doesn't just give away an asset to another division. The Grand Floridian hotel is losing a physical asset, plus the revenue generated by that asset. I'm guessing this has to be a formal transfer, with the cost of the transfer being registered as a cost against the points to be sold.

My point is, the "cost" of VGF2 is going to be recorded as more than the money spent on converting the building. I believe it's also going to be the cost of DVD acquiring the building. Yes, it's (mostly) a "bookkeeping thing", but I suspect DVD's gross margin is going to be based on the cost of the building, any improvements made during conversion, plus the overhead cost (including commission) of sale.

@BrianLo wrote:

What if Disney spent less than 10$ a point converting Big Pine into DVC? Which is what they probably did. This is why they'll happily sell them 'for cheap' at 207$.​

I'm simply saying that the cost of selling VGF2 is going to be a lot more than the cost of converting the Big Pine Key building.

Even with those additional costs, the profit margin at $207 is still going to be huge.

Yes, totally agree with you ultimately the 'cost' is not merely the refurb. But the actual Capex line item as far as shareholders will be concerned is much more minimal than say Reflections.

The opportunity cost against Grand Floridian cash bookings is negative, but it seems like Disney struggles to fill cash rooms. It's all just shuffling chairs, but when posters feel VGF2 is too cheap, it's definitely designed to be.

They want it to be "attractive" and they want to it sell quickly because Disney wants the cash now, not in 2025 *hopefully* post pandemic or when D+ starts being profitable. They also want very minimal Capex spend to get to that cash right now, which 207$ when the resale market was nearly pushing that level achieves.

While it seems like an unbelievable price, it both isn't and Disney is highly motivated to move it. This is the context of why 207$ makes sense and if Disney is really desperate they can push some spectacular incentives.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Now that Boardwalk is $230 pp direct, I HIGHLY doubt that VGF will be offered for the ridiculous price people here have stated ($207 - $210). Imagine that pitch...... BWV is $230 with only 20 yrs left but you can have VGF for the low low bargain price of $207 (with incentives) and it goes till 2062...... YEA RIGHT

We’ll know in a few weeks, but with Riviera selling at that price now, and VGF2 coming on line with 2 million points Disney will need to unload, you really think they’ll start with such a high price point? The minimum 150 point purchase for new buyers at even $207 is over 31K, and that won’t even get a week in a studio during many times of the year. That’s not a “low, low bargain price.”

 

[Paul Stupin]

GF is supposed to be the premier hotel at WDW. DLH is supposed to be the 2nd best hotel at DLR. It’s also at a resort where the majority of guests are locals, it’s also quite a walk to the parks, and the DVC tower is going to be even further still. You can stay at a dozen hotels in Anaheim that are a shorter walk to Disneyland than the Disneyland Hotel’s DVC tower will be. There’s also effectively no onsite advantages at DLR. it is a different animal but I think in the opposite of the way that you think.

And yes, there will be inflation, but it will be the same with Riviera and Aulani too. I imagine we’ll see an opening price of $213 if it opens next year (still in play) or $220 if it slips to 2024.

Though I’m not super excited about DLT either, it won’t be “quite a walk to the parks.” Having just stayed at the Disneyland Hotel, I’d say it’s less than a ten minute walk. That’s even less than the walk from the Contemporary to the Magic Kingdom. There are some hotels on the other side of Disneyland where the walk is a bit shorter, but then it’s a longer walk to Downtown Disney, and most of them seem kind of rundown.