The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[hglenn]

Yeah I feel awful for them, they love Disney but his job never returned after it was furloughed during covid.

They were shocked that properties which have less than half the years remaining sell for more than they were recommended to list theirs for, and their resale rep said that was 100% because of restrictions. He also implied that it isn’t working out for Disney like they expected but obviously he is not unbiased and very much on opposite spectrum lol

Personally, I don't think it's 100% because of restrictions. I think it also has to do with the direct sales price right now. We are considering buying RIV because it's our taste. We intend to always use our points there so resale could also work, however, with the current RIV incentives and the ease of buying direct over resale, I would choose direct right now. As someone else noted, I think it'll change when RIV is "sold out."

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I haven’t been on board since early DVC, so I am only following what I’ve seen mostly the last few years. I’m basing my info strictly off of what the resale market is doing, so maybe that isn’t a great gauge.

For March 2022 Grand Floridian and Riviera were both available direct from Disney with promo discounts, on the resale market GF average sale for March was $172 and Riviera $151. Grand Floridian will expire 6 years earlier, so you get more years if you buy Riviera, but it sells for 15% less. I took that as the restrictions were having an impact on value.

With all that said I by︅ no means claim to be an expert, just voicing my opinion I have 33 days booked in Disney over the next 12 months and if I wanted to sell after my trips I should get what I paid for my contracts, all my dues, and enough left over for a free trip next year. My one friend is trying to sell their Riviera because of where life has gone, and they will lose about 30% of what they paid and gotten one trip out of it.

I agree, resale listing prices alone are not a great gauge. Many other factors, even beyond the ones I listed previously. Note, for instance, that RVA has higher incentives that VGF for new direct purchases, so it's not the same price direct either. VGF has a lot more name recognition, and many of the contracts on the resale market have been listed for months (so before VGF2 direct came out). We shall see how the competition with direct impacts resale for VGF resale in the coming months. Lastly, there's a difference between listing price and final sale price, some VGF owners with their contracts on the market may have to make bigger than usual compromises to attract buyers.

It's really too bad your friend is having to sell so soon! Life...
Unfortunately, when buying direct and selling while the resort is still in active sales, this situation is likely to happen. But that has been the case for previous, unrestricted resorts as well.

I think whatever ends up happening with Poly2 will give us a better look into how Disney views those restrictions and how it’s impacted the market. If it in fact didn’t really have any impact on ease of sale then you will be right I’m sure on it being it’s own association cause there would be zero reason to add on to original poly for Disney unless they felt it would be easier to sell.

I know from my eyes, I almost bought GF2 direct because I would like to have one direct contract at this point. If Poly2 is an add on I will 100% buy 150 points direct. If it’s separate with restrictions I will look to buy GF2 if it’s still available or another resale and accept I won’t have the direct benefits.

Agreed, the Poly expansion may give some insight into what Disney is thinking of doing re: resale restrictions. Though it's also entirely possible that they roll PVB2 into the same association, and yet continue restrictions on future resorts thereafter.

If I understand it correctly (not 100% positive though), any new hotels with the restrictions would only be able to be used at the specific resort if resold.

So anyone buying Riviera on resale market will only have access to Riviera even if they add more with restrictions. Maybe that’s something they would look at changing though if they do add more

Right, that's how it works right now.

I don't think resale restrictions have no impact, especially among informed buyers. Some say they love the resort and don't care, others are scared and go for other options. But so far the data we have for sales doesn't show there has been a significant impact on resale value, and we won't know for sure until RVA sells out and resale becomes the main way to purchase. Until then, folks like your friend who need to sell will be competing with direct, which as is usually the case, will depress what they can ask for on the resale market.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I don't think resale restrictions have no impact, especially among informed buyers. Some say they love the resort and don't care, others are scared and go for other options. But so far the data we have for sales doesn't show there has been a significant impact on resale value, and we won't know for sure until RVA sells out and resale becomes the main way to purchase.

Good point.

Many folks also forget that anyone who bought a resale contract after 2019 has purchased restricted points. They may not fully recognize that as yet because the impact is minimal today. BUT, if Poly Tower is a new association then their restricted points likely won't be eligible for use there, either. Over time, as new resorts come online, the restriction on all resale points becomes more impactful. Unless, of course, DVC chooses to abandon the restriction model that they've implemented.

 

[Sandisw]

So I think Initially people didn’t realize the impact the restrictions would have on value of their purchase and that’s why the early sales were good.

I know two people who bought riviera at the same time I bought a resale contract and mine has gone way UP in value (both resale price and direct from Disney) and their Riveria has gone way Dooooowwwwwnnnn in value from what they paid.

With the new system it’s very similar to a regular timeshare and it will not hold value nearly as well which will in turn make it less desirable. Doesn’t mean Disney won’t stick with it, but I think it will inevitably have a different result than they were thinking.

During covid resale prices sky rocketed, and that doesn’t happen without demand. So people were still buying DVC contracts, just not buying the restricted resort.

I bought RIV direct in 2019 for $167/pt…well, $162 but that was with CM discount so I won’t count that.

I could probably sell for $140 isn, which is less than a 20% decline. Not bad since it’s still in active sales,

I bought RIV resale at $152 last summer, so only a slight decline there. All new resorts show a decline in the resale market at the start. It isn’t until much later before things go up.

I think it’s too early for too many assumptions but a lot of us figured RIV would never sell well at all on the resale market and it’s done much better than predicted.

Now, it may not stay that way, but it is exceeding I think a lot of peoples initial expectations.

And, I think what the restricted resort model of RIV will do…once there are more like that…is cause People to buy direct points…or, cause people to simply buy multiple home resorts resale to use For different trips.

 

[Paul Stupin]

If Poly2 turns out well, I'm going to buy there in spite of whatever resale restrictions come with it. First of all, they won't affect me, and second its way too early to have any indication how such restrictions will affect long term resale value. If I wind up selling years down the line, by that time they'll be so baked in to the DVC DNA that people will no longer be as up in arms as they are today. And having more direct points now keeps the entire DVC universe open for booking.

 

[Royal Consort]

And, I think what the restricted resort model of RIV will do…once there are more like that…is cause People to buy direct points…or, cause people to simply buy multiple home resorts resale to use For different trips.

This. And also the future of DVC is going to look very different: if new resorts are restricted and 2042 approaches, owners are going to have to increasingly stay where they own.

We can see this mindset shifting in the market now. BCV, BWV, VGF, VGC, and even RVA to a lesser extent are contracts you need to own if you want to stay there. If that's the case, restrictions may not be the issue they feel like today. I still don't like 'em just the same.

 

[KimMcGowan]

It is kinda funny how all the chatter about this topic had just died off. I can only imagine how bad it will be as we get closer. It will be the VGF2 thread on steroids

 

[KVacc]

It is kinda funny how all the chatter about this topic had just died off. I can only imagine how bad it will be as we get closer. It will be the VGF2 thread on steroids

Yeah once something new comes out it will explode again. Or some art work or more drawings for people to love and hate.

 

[Stargazer65]

It is kinda funny how all the chatter about this topic had just died off. I can only imagine how bad it will be as we get closer. It will be the VGF2 thread on steroids

Have you heard about rumored Poly 2 sales starting soon?

 

[DVCSunDevil]

It is kinda funny how all the chatter about this topic had just died off. I can only imagine how bad it will be as we get closer. It will be the VGF2 thread on steroids

I don't think discussion will really start up again until there is more substantial news. Like pricing...or the association status (is it part of Poly, or its own association)...or pictures of actual resort being built so we can see how it will look.

 

[Marionnette]

Have you heard about rumored Poly 2 sales starting soon?

We're a long way off from that. Sales cannot be announced until rooms have been declared into inventory. They just filed permits to demolish the old luau building. Declarations are far into the future.

 

[SeasonneRose]

Maybe I'm thinking about this wrong, but if the new rooms were going to be part of the old association, wouldn't you think Disney would be snatching up Poly resale in ROFR at the much lower rate right now?

 

[Marionnette]

Maybe I'm thinking about this wrong, but if the new rooms were going to be part of the old association, wouldn't you think Disney would be snatching up Poly resale in ROFR at the much lower rate right now?

I don't recall them doing that with VGF. Maybe I wasn't paying close attention.

 

[SeasonneRose]

I don't recall them doing that with VGF. Maybe I wasn't paying close attention.

I'm new to DCV so I have no idea. I'm just thinking from a purely financial point - if they are going to sell these for hypothetically $215 wouldn't it make sense to buy up all the contracts (and some of those with banked points) that are selling for far less and get them out of the market?

 

[Sandisw]

I'm new to DCV so I have no idea. I'm just thinking from a purely financial point - if they are going to sell these for hypothetically $215 wouldn't it make sense to buy up all the contracts (and some of those with banked points) that are selling for far less and get them out of the market?

No because they will have plenty of new points to sell with this new build, regardless of association.

So, they don’t need to pick up more points to sell.

 

[SeasonneRose]

No because they will have plenty of new points to sell with this new build, regardless of association.

So, they don’t need to pick up more points to sell.

It’s not about them needing the points, it’s about them forcing people who would’ve bought those cheaper resale contracts into buying the more expensive direct contracts.

 

[Sandisw]

It’s not about them needing the points, it’s about them forcing people who would’ve bought those cheaper resale contracts into buying the more expensive direct contracts.

They don’t need to buy up Poly points now to do that because they are not selling Poly points at the new resort.

They don’t spend money to just sit on points. They have lots of reasons to exercise ROFR and those goals change all the time.

At this point in time, with sales close to two years away, and no more info on whether this is new or old…I am 90% convinced it’s going to be a new resort and current Poly points won’t be valid there…way too soon.

And, with VGF, they did pick up contracts, but all new sales are deeded to the new building and not the current one, so having those points in stock are not being sold. What has moved people to direct vs resale for VGF right now is that the price difference for certain levels is close enough that people are buying for having non restricted points and eligibility for membership extras.

 

[SeasonneRose]

They don’t need to buy up Poly points now to do that because they are not selling Poly points at the new resort.

They don’t spend money to just sit on points. They have lots of reasons to exercise ROFR and those goals change all the time.

At this point in time, with sales close to two years away, and no more info on whether this is new or old…I am 90% convinced it’s going to be a new resort and current Poly points won’t be valid there…way too soon.

And, with VGF, they did pick up contracts, but all new sales are deeded to the new building and not the current one, so having those points in stock are not being sold. What has moved people to direct vs resale for VGF right now is that the price difference for certain levels is close enough that people are buying for having non restricted points and eligibility for membership extras.

Let me be clear, I’m just speculating here like anyone is and just posting thoughts. And my position is from a business perspective.

That being said, I hear what you’re saying. The two year wait time makes sense. Also, it may not make financial sense for Disney to staff and deal with the accounting to keep track of poly resale that may not amount to much in the grand scheme.

I personally hope it’s a new association because I don’t have a need for anything bigger than a studio so I suspect a lot of (perhaps angry) current Poly owners will be selling their contracts in favor of the new association with bigger rooms.

 

[Sandisw]

Let me be clear, I’m just speculating here like anyone is and just posting thoughts. And my position is from a business perspective.

That being said, I hear what you’re saying. The two year wait time makes sense. Also, it may not make financial sense for Disney to staff and deal with the accounting to keep track of poly resale that may not amount to much in the grand scheme.

I personally hope it’s a new association because I don’t have a need for anything bigger than a studio so I suspect a lot of (perhaps angry) current Poly owners will be selling their contracts in favor of the new association with bigger rooms.

Of course. It’s why I don’t think that the lack of them buying Poly has anything to do with decisions for new associations.

IMO, what could play a role is how well VGF is selling in comparison to RIV over the next few months and whether DVD wants to abandon resale restfictions.

I am hoping we get direct April sales data soon!

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Agree as well. I think we lucked out with VGF2, since it wasn’t a new build and was only studios, and that resale restrictions will continue to be alive and well with both Poly2 and DLT. I also think it’s a big negative for Poly1 owners, since both resale and direct buyers will be drawn to the new tower, not only bringing Poly1 resale pricing down, but also bringing additional crowds to Poly1 amenities.

I don't think new build has anything to do with it. CC wasn't new build and it was a new association. Also, when CC was first announced, they said it was "DVC's 14th resort" to come online. There was no wording about Poly2 being the "17th resort". Also, I think from a business standpoint, DVD makes more margin off "new" Poly points than the margin on resale points they've taken from the market. Finally, if they wanted a new association resort they would have finished Reflections. They had already sunk a ton of money into prepping the land infrastructure - only to cover it with sod.