The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[Sandisw]

I don't think new build has anything to do with it. CC wasn't new build and it was a new association. Also, when CC was first announced, they said it was "DVC's 14th resort" to come online. There was no wording about Poly2 being the "17th resort". Also, I think from a business standpoint, DVD makes more margin off "new" Poly points than the margin on resale points they've taken from the market. Finally, if they wanted a new association resort they would have finished Reflections. They had already sunk a ton of money into prepping the land infrastructure - only to cover it with sod.

CCV happened before resale restrictions were an idea and had the big difference in expiration date.

Now, one is in play and the other isnt an issue. When VGF was announced, they went out of their way to make sure everyone know it would be an addition to VGF and not new. They didn’t with this.

What that at least indicates is that they don’t want anyone to know the decision if it’s been decided..or want time to finalize it later when it needs to be decided.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I don't think new build has anything to do with it. CC wasn't new build and it was a new association. Also, when CC was first announced, they said it was "DVC's 14th resort" to come online. There was no wording about Poly2 being the "17th resort". Also, I think from a business standpoint, DVD makes more margin off "new" Poly points than the margin on resale points they've taken from the market. Finally, if they wanted a new association resort they would have finished Reflections. They had already sunk a ton of money into prepping the land infrastructure - only to cover it with sod.

First, they never really started actual construction on Reflections, did they? Second, Reflections represented a far larger investment than what Disney will spend on the Poly Tower, so I think the actual cost was the deciding factor, not whether or not it was going to be a new association.

From a business standpoint, I think it makes more sense to undermine (without destroying) the value of resale points by shutting out resale owners from new construction, which will drive many of them to go the direct route. It worked with me! I bought direct to stay at Riviera at 7 months, and other new resorts down the line.

 

[Sandisw]

First, they never really started actual construction on Reflections, did they? Second, Reflections represented a far larger investment than what Disney will spend on the Poly Tower, so I think the actual cost was the deciding factor, not whether or not it was going to be a new association.

From a business standpoint, I think it makes more sense to undermine (without destroying) the value of resale points by shutting out resale owners from new construction, which will drive many of them to go the direct route. It worked with me! I bought direct to stay at Riviera at 7 months, and other new resorts down the line.

To add, Reflections was not just DVC...it was DVC and cash hotel rooms. So, this Poly tower is not replacing that. Obviously, it appears TWDC has decided they don't need more rooms for cash guests since they are not only building this new DVC only tower, but took BPK from Grand Floridian and made it DVC. I would say that is a pretty big sign they feel the current cash offerings are enough to satisfy guest demand and probably played a bigger role in why Reflections was scrapped, than the DVC piece.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

CCV happened before resale restrictions were an idea and had the big difference in expiration date.

Now, one is in play and the other isnt an issue. When VGF was announced, they went out of their way to make sure everyone know it would be an addition to VGF and not new. They didn’t with this.

What that at least indicates is that they don’t want anyone to know the decision if it’s been decided..or want time to finalize it later when it needs to be decided.

This is the one thing that makes sense to me... they haven't decided and are trying to keep it open. Another factor may be if Riviera is sold out. They may want only one "new" resort on sale at one time in Florida.

 

[Hopfather28]

As an owner at Poly I hope it's part of the original association. That said, if the pricing rolls out like it did for VGF2 I will probably buy at least 300 points and immediately list my 350 current Poly points to help pay for it. While everyone is concentrating on them wanting to push people to buy direct and hence new association I think it is important to keep in mind that by selling it as the current association they will sell it just as fast (or faster) AND be selling a 42 year contract instead of 50.

 

[Sandisw]

As an owner at Poly I hope it's part of the original association. That said, if the pricing rolls out like it did for VGF2 I will probably buy at least 300 points and immediately list my 350 current Poly points to help pay for it. While everyone is concentrating on them wanting to push people to buy direct and hence new association I think it is important to keep in mind that by selling it as the current association they will sell it just as fast (or faster) AND be selling a 42 year contract instead of 50.

Not sure it will sell faster as I am one who won’t buy if it is not a new resort. No interest in competing with current owners for those larger rooms.

Plus there is nothing to force them to make to 50 years if new. They can still make it expire the same as PVB.

If VGF is now selling well with a shorter life to it, they may use that as justification to make it a new resort, 44 year length and include resale restrictions.

They really have all options to choose from moving forward.

 

[Hopfather28]

Not sure it will sell faster as I am one who won’t buy if it is not a new resort. No interest in competing with current owners for those larger rooms.

Plus there is nothing to force them to make to 50 years if new. They can still make it expire the same as PVB.

If VGF is now selling well with a shorter life to it, they may use that as justification to make it a new resort, 44 year length and include resale restrictions.

They really have all options to choose from moving forward.

If you own 150pt contract at Poly you can currently get a standard view studio for a week in the summer. I contend that a lot of those same people will add on 100 or more points for the opportunity to have a larger room choice. That is why I was saying it might even cause it to sell faster. ESPECIALLY if it doesn't have resale restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

If you own 150pt contract at Poly you can currently get a standard view studio for a week in the summer. I contend that a lot of those same people will add on 100 or more points for the opportunity to have a larger room choice. That is why I was saying it might even cause it to sell faster. ESPECIALLY if it doesn't have resale restrictions.

Except a lot of current owners would now be competing for the larger rooms that Poly does not have, which for me is why I would buy. I don’t like the current Poly but the tower is my cup of tea

A lot of the Poly studios are regularly available at 7 months so honestly, I don’t think losing that home resort advantage would be a big deal for new buyers.

Pros and cons for each situation, that is for sure. I think if VDH comes out with restrictions, then I think it moves the needle into the new resort with restrictions direction.

 

[CarolMN]

Except a lot of current owners would now be competing for the larger rooms that Poly does not have, which for me is why I would buy. I don’t like the current Poly but the tower is my cup of tea

A lot of the Poly studios are regularly available at 7 months so honestly, I don’t think losing that home resort advantage would be a big deal for new buyers.

Pros and cons for each situation, that is for sure. I think if VDH comes out with restrictions, then I think it moves the needle into the new resort with restrictions direction.

I'm not so sure that there will be all that much additional competition. I'm basing that on what I believe the point charts will end up to be -expensive! Most DVC Members love to stretch their points, and IMHO, the impact of that has been underestimated by those who routinely book the larger villas.

By the time we know what DVD/DVC decides about the Association, we should have at least a year of data for VGF. I think it will show 1 & 2 bedrooms are less available at 7 months but not a problem at 11, current peak times & the associated booking issues excepted. YMMV.

 

[Hopfather28]

Except a lot of current owners would now be competing for the larger rooms that Poly does not have, which for me is why I would buy. I don’t like the current Poly but the tower is my cup of tea

A lot of the Poly studios are regularly available at 7 months so honestly, I don’t think losing that home resort advantage would be a big deal for new buyers.

Pros and cons for each situation, that is for sure. I think if VDH comes out with restrictions, then I think it moves the needle into the new resort with restrictions direction.

I don't know that VDH would be a good indicator of that. I think a better indicator will be sales over the next 18 months at RIV and VGF because I firmly believe they have not decided this yet (hence the ambiguity). Either way I agree wholeheartedly that this is a case of Pros & Cons for both. But I will gladly sell my 350 poly points that were purchased for an average of 129pp and roll that into a new PVB2 just don't tell them that.

 

[Hopfather28]

I'm not so sure that there will be all that much additional competition. I'm basing that on what I believe the point charts will end up to be -expensive! Most DVC Members love to stretch their points, and IMHO, the impact of that has been underestimated by those who routinely book the larger villas.

By the time we know what DVD/DVC decides about the Association, we should have at least a year of data for VGF. I think it will show 1 & 2 bedrooms are less available at 7 months but not a problem at 11, current peak times & the associated booking issues excepted. YMMV.

To be fair, Poly charts are already the steepest of the steep. A week in the summer in a standard view is more than 20 points higher at Poly than a standard at VGF. It's actually in line with a standard Riviera which puts a 1 week 1bdrm somewhere in the 350 range. I agree this will be expensive no matter how you slice it (new association or not).

 

[Sandisw]

I don't know that VDH would be a good indicator of that. I think a better indicator will be sales over the next 18 months at RIV and VGF because I firmly believe they have not decided this yet (hence the ambiguity). Either way I agree wholeheartedly that this is a case of Pros & Cons for both. But I will gladly sell my 350 poly points that were purchased for an average of 129pp and roll that into a new PVB2 just don't tell them that.

The only thing with VDH as a predictor is the long term goal of restrictions and that if the plan is they might abandon them for new resorts, this would be a test to that and give some indication what they might be thinking.

 

[kilik64]

First, they never really started actual construction on Reflections, did they?

They spent a decent chunk clearing the area and some footers were poured before they ceased construction.

They DID build the new horse stables that was part of the project. Those had to be done before they could do the hotel as part of the hotel site was where the old horse stable was.

Oh and they built a new road too I think.

This might end up as the new AOA in ten years (granted AOA was much further along then this was)

Link to a good video about it:

 

[Paul Stupin]

I don't know that VDH would be a good indicator of that. I think a better indicator will be sales over the next 18 months at RIV and VGF because I firmly believe they have not decided this yet (hence the ambiguity). Either way I agree wholeheartedly that this is a case of Pros & Cons for both. But I will gladly sell my 350 poly points that were purchased for an average of 129pp and roll that into a new PVB2 just don't tell them that.

I think the deliberate ambiguity is a sign that resale restrictions are on their way. It’s hard for me to believe that Disney will build this impressive new tower and open it up to booking for resale owners at 7 months as in the original 14. Why do them any favors?

VDH will have restrictions too, and my guess is it will sell quite well. As will Poly2.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I think the deliberate ambiguity is a sign that resale restrictions are on their way. It’s hard for me to believe that Disney will build this impressive new tower and open it up to booking for resale owners at 7 months as in the original 14. Why do them any favors?

VDH will have restrictions too, and my guess is it will sell quite well. As will Poly2.

Unless their research indicates that the points will sell faster without restrictions. In the end, is this a money grab? If yes, the new tower will be part of the existing Poly DVC and there will be no restrictions. The true direction will be in how fast the Floridian points sell, I for one will be keeping a close eye on those sales.

 

[Cabius]

They spent a decent chunk clearing the area and some footers were poured before they ceased construction.

They DID build the new horse stables that was part of the project. Those had to be done before they could do the hotel as part of the hotel site was where the old horse stable was.

Oh and they built a new road too I think.

And they closed the trail from the Fort to the Lodge.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Unless their research indicates that the points will sell faster without restrictions. In the end, is this a money grab? If yes, the new tower will be part of the existing Poly DVC and there will be no restrictions. The true direction will be in how fast the Floridian points sell, I for one will be keeping a close eye on those sales.

Of course it’s a money grab. And the best way is to steer buyers toward direct. As we’ll see with VDH, the restrictions won’t hurt sales.

 

[DVCsloth]

Don't see any reason that Disney would want the new tower to be in the same association. This would not be a good selling point either, why would new owners want to compete with millions of Polynesian points? I know there is no way I would consider buying there if it were the same association. You would need to book a studio right at 11 months if you bought there. More than likely it will share the same amenities similar to CCV and BRV.

 

[Royal Consort]

Don't see any reason that Disney would want the new tower to be in the same association. This would not be a good selling point either, why would new owners want to compete with millions of Polynesian points? I know there is no way I would consider buying there if it were the same association. You would need to book a studio right at 11 months if you bought there. More than likely it will share the same amenities similar to CCV and BRV.

Come pick up masses of resale to use at 11 months in our bang shiny new tower!

 

[Sandisw]

Come pick up masses of resale to use at 11 months in our bang shiny new tower!

Why would Disney want to spend money for resale points when they will have all the new ones to sell? Not to mention all the VGF and RIV right now.

If it’s the same association they will price it like they did vGF to keep the difference decent. Then again if there are no more resale restrictions it means no real reason to buy direct.