Say Good Bye to Maelstrom....A 'Frozen' Ride is Definite

[mom2rtk]

And look how... "Meh"... most of New Fantasyland turned out. Unfortunately, the track record in recent years has proven to disappoint more often than not. I'm hoping they prove me wrong, but as half-baked as this whole project seems, I'm not overly optimistic...

Carsland is awesome. And I keep hearing about the incredible things they do at the overseas parks.

It's almost like they consider WDW mature and are hesitant to really add new stuff. Or maybe they use WDW as a base to fund other things. Or maybe the huge resort infrastructure sucks too many assets away. I'm not certain of any of these things, but I do have a feeling they seem to hold back at WDW for SOME reason.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Carsland is awesome. And I keep hearing about the incredible things they do at the overseas parks.

It's almost like they consider WDW mature and are hesitant to really add new stuff. Or maybe they use WDW as a base to fund other things. Or maybe the huge resort infrastructure sucks too many assets away. I'm not certain of any of these things, but I do have a feeling they seem to hold back at WDW for SOME reason.

The stuff overseas is not paid for entirely (in the case of Japan...much at all) by Disney...

That is a key difference.

It's not that they "don't want to mess up" wdw for prestige and nostalgia...heck, that would be Disneyland and they've turned that place Into an amusement warzone for 15 years...

It's that wdw is a pure, simple, "dumb east coaster, midwester, Latin America, Canadian, and Western European" cashcow that they do not want to sink money Into because they have moved to a period where "capital extraction" is the core philosophy after decades of expansion to grow revenue.

So, you have to assume that absolutely ZERO thought of doing frozen park attractions was given until it became a megahit worldwide... So we're talking maybe February or later...

So financial has to authorize development, imagineering has to start with a pencil and do concepts and feasibility, then market and revenue analysis, then final review, then announcement.

All of that in 4-8 months? Based on Disney's practices?

Andrew is right...this is half baked.

And...they can't figure out how to build anything to strike while the iron is hot anymore!!!
18 months? Are you serious?

That's about how long it took to build tower of terror or splash mountain...probably the most ambitious rides at wdw still to date.
...With Packard bell computer technology and turbo cad

That's because the cost for speed/quality is "not inline with financial projections"...plain and simple.

 

[wallrock]

Carsland is awesome. And I keep hearing about the incredible things they do at the overseas parks.

It's almost like they consider WDW mature and are hesitant to really add new stuff. Or maybe they use WDW as a base to fund other things. Or maybe the huge resort infrastructure sucks too many assets away. I'm not certain of any of these things, but I do have a feeling they seem to hold back at WDW for SOME reason.

I and a few others on this site feel that the suits in Burbank are all but done with Orlando, at least on the same investment scale as the other parks. I think it has to do with the partial ownership Disney has with the overseas properties - meaning the risk is minimized on Disney's side when money is spent. With Disney having full ownership of Orlando the risk is completely on their side, and as such they are reluctant to invest too much. With Cars Land in California Adventure, Disney had to do something there because things were going down hill financially. I think only a similar situation in Orlando will force them to make a large scale update.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I and a few others on this site feel that the suits in Burbank are all but done with Orlando, at least on the same investment scale as the other parks. I think it has to do with the partial ownership Disney has with the overseas properties - meaning the risk is minimized on Disney's side when money is spent. With Disney having full ownership of Orlando the risk is completely on their side, and as such they are reluctant to invest too much. With Cars Land in California Adventure, Disney had to do something there because things were going down hill financially. I think only a similar situation in Orlando will force them to make a large scale update.

Who are these "few others"????

I might tend to agree with you and they

 

[clsteve]

And look how... "Meh"... most of New Fantasyland turned out. Unfortunately, the track record in recent years has proven to disappoint more often than not. I'm hoping they prove me wrong, but as half-baked as this whole project seems, I'm not overly optimistic...

I don't think they've yet put together any solid plan as to how they're going to pull this off logistically - from the current footprint and ride capacity to crowd control and management.

Just take a look at how Norway is currently set up for crowd flow/ride capacity and then think about what they're now adding:

They're taking a ride that historically had about the medium popularity of a PoTC and turning it into a 7DMT level popularity ride - especially when it opens and for a good period of time after

Plus the M&G - and we saw what issues that created

And, they're placing both in a section of the Park that traditionally opens at 11am.... think about all of the process and crowd management decisions that need to be made there in conjunction with the Pavilion decisions (or I hope they are)

We don't even know what will really continue to be the Pavilion - during or after the construction start (if anything) and Maelstrom closes in a couple of weeks

So, I'm not sure the Plan is even ready to go in the oven to get to half-baked status.....

You're right- there would need to be some heavy tint on the glasses to see a lot of optimism anywhere in this right now

Edit and add: The current Norway Pavilion footprint may well end up as 2 large interactive queues to handle it all - unless there is serious expansion as part of this: de facto Arendelle, no matter what they call it when they're done

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Honestly, i wouldn't put it past them to announce an expansion, sell packages off it for a year, and then can it.

They could claim "rogue element in the press office"

That would be a great revenue generator in resorts while they build more villas to bridge the gap

(I'm kidding...


...maybe)

 

[skier_pete]

I don't think they've yet put together any solid plan as to how they're going to pull this off logistically - from the current footprint and ride capacity to crowd control and management.

Just take a look at how Norway is currently set up for crowd flow/ride capacity and then think about what they're now adding:

They're taking a ride that historically had about the medium popularity of a PoTC and turning it into a 7DMT level popularity ride - especially when it opens and for a good period of time after

Plus the M&G - and we saw what issues that created

And, they're placing both in a section of the Park that traditionally opens at 11am.... think about all of the process and crowd management decisions that need to be made there in conjunction with the Pavilion decisions (or I hope they are)

We don't even know what will really continue to be the Pavilion - during or after the construction start (if anything) and Maelstrom closes in a couple of weeks

So, I'm not sure the Plan is even ready to go in the oven to get to half-baked status.....

You're right- there would need to be some heavy tint on the glasses to see a lot of optimism anywhere in this right now

Edit and add: The current Norway Pavilion footprint may well end up as 2 large interactive queues to handle it all - unless there is serious expansion as part of this: de facto Arendelle, no matter what they call it when they're done

I am sure this is all being planned for. Disney is very, very up on crowd control measures. They are not stupid and are fully aware that this will likely be the most popular ride in Epcot for at least the first few years. This is clearly a big job and are talking 18 months minimum.

Remember, there is a completely empty World Showcase "Lot" between Norway and Mexico. You want my opinion, that the Norway Building/Pavilion "expands" into that lot. You could easily make either a second entrance, or you have the entrance be through the Norway pavillion and the exit be on the other side of the Kringle Bakery. Or I could see the entrance being off to the side, and the exit feeding people into the shops.



I do suspect the popularity will wane somewhat in the next few years. This is pretty amazing because Disney is rarely so quick to get a movie turned into a park attraction. It usually takes a lot longer. (Though I guess in this case it'll still be almost three years after the movie came out, so for instance Nemo at the Seas was about the same timing.)

 

[mom2rtk]

Maybe they don't intend to have room for standby lines in that area. Maybe this is what the standby + tests were about a while back.

 

[clsteve]

Honestly, i wouldn't put it past them to announce an expansion, sell packages off it for a year, and then can it.

They could claim "rogue element in the press office"

That would be a great revenue generator in resorts while they build more villas to bridge the gap

(I'm kidding...


...maybe)

I think we're buy our glasses from the same store....

Maybe they don't intend to have room for standby lines in that area. Maybe this is what the standby + tests were about a while back.

It does make a lot more sense now doesn't it? Especially if the new Soarin theatres are coming at about the same time....

 

[clsteve]

I am sure this is all being planned for. Disney is very, very up on crowd control measures. They are not stupid and are fully aware that this will likely be the most popular ride in Epcot for at least the first few years. This is clearly a big job and are talking 18 months minimum.

Remember, there is a completely empty World Showcase "Lot" between Norway and Mexico. You want my opinion, that the Norway Building/Pavilion "expands" into that lot. You could easily make either a second entrance, or you have the entrance be through the Norway pavillion and the exit be on the other side of the Kringle Bakery. Or I could see the entrance being off to the side, and the exit feeding people into the shops.



I do suspect the popularity will wane somewhat in the next few years. This is pretty amazing because Disney is rarely so quick to get a movie turned into a park attraction. It usually takes a lot longer. (Though I guess in this case it'll still be almost three years after the movie came out, so for instance Nemo at the Seas was about the same timing.)

Your picture says it better than I could articulate it.

Look at the current choke points: at the Pavillion entrance (and exit) and at the WS walkways in each direction - all currently bi-directional

Then, look at the size of the current Norway Pavillion and current Maelstrom ride and queue capacity

Now, think about several thousand guests descending on this space after queueing up at RD and/or WS RD - all at the same time.

They couldn't have picked a more difficult spot - like adding a Frozen M&G or ride right next to TSMM

That lot you highlight for expansion - even if just for crowd management makes sense.

But, now you have the Frozen initiative as much bigger than most are expecting and taking up a lot that many have desperately held out hope for as a new country. And, Arrendelle now becomes one of the largest countries in WS....

One thing for sure, Akershus morning ressies just became the most sought after in WDW, if it stays in it's current form

 

[rteetz]

A source on wdwmagic posted an estimated budget for this project is around 75 million. The little mermaid in MK cost around 100 million. It seems like they will be using a lot of what's there not too much expanding if any. I also want to add that Tokyo is getting a budget of 450-500 million for a frozen attraction there...

 

[Andrew015]

A source on wdwmagic posted an estimated budget for this project is around 75 million. The little mermaid in MK cost around 100 million. It seems like they will be using a lot of what's there not too much expanding if any. I also want to add that Tokyo is getting a budget of 450-500 million for a frozen attraction there...

OK, I agree with Steve.... this one isn't even half-baked.... We'll be lucky if it ever gets 30 seconds in a microwave...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

A source on wdwmagic posted an estimated budget for this project is around 75 million. The little mermaid in MK cost around 100 million. It seems like they will be using a lot of what's there not too much expanding if any. I also want to add that Tokyo is getting a budget of 450-500 million for a frozen attraction there...

If that's true, it's stomach turning...

Not because you or I couldn't build something "awesome" from Home Depot with 75 mil...but because it's an offensive, drop in the bucket for TWDC.

Really... I'm not exaggerating...your being had.

Just redo the awful restaurant and do a meet and greet with 100 photopass photographers...leave the boat alone

 

[skier_pete]

A source on wdwmagic posted an estimated budget for this project is around 75 million. The little mermaid in MK cost around 100 million. It seems like they will be using a lot of what's there not too much expanding if any. I also want to add that Tokyo is getting a budget of 450-500 million for a frozen attraction there...

Wait - if they spent $100 million on Little Mermaid, and built an entire building from the ground up, that seems like this will be a pretty extensive re-do at 75% the cost. I was assuming all along they were going to use the same track/boat layout. There's almost no way that doesn't happen. I can't think of a ride tear-down using the same building that didn't take advantage of using the track layout (Off the top of my head: Winnie the Pooh replacing Mr Toad, Imagination re-do, Nemo replacing the original Seas ride. Buzz Lightyear Space Ranger Spin replacing If You Had Wings - all of them use the same track/room layout as the original ride.

So, I think if your numbers are right (LM @ $100 mil, Frozen @ $75 mil) that would leave it with a more expansive ride in Epcot.

Of course, I should put the caveat as to "where the heck did you get those numbers from?"

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Is this the part where I point out that little mermaid was a clone...and therefore didnt have alot of R&D or design cost...

So $100 at wal-Disney buys you an omnimover ride with some CG plaster rockwork outside and a waterfall...

Just saying

 

[skier_pete]

Is this the part where I point out that little mermaid was a clone...and therefore didnt have alot of R&D or design cost...

So $100 at wal-Disney buys you an omnimover ride with some CG plaster rockwork outside and a waterfall...

Just saying

Good point, though there are definitely some significant differences between the two rides. In particular, they sunk a lot of money to building the structure and the exterior of TLM. I'm presuming there will be no (or little) exterior work involved.

I was trying to do some comparison and found this:

Expedition Everest — Legend of the Forbidden Mountain is a steel roller coaster built by Vekoma at Disney's Animal Kingdom theme park at the Walt Disney World Resort in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. The ride is themed around the Yeti hiding in Mount Everest. It is listed in the 2011 book of Guinness World Records as the most expensive roller coaster in the world. Including sets and extras, its total cost was reported to be US$100 million, following 6 years of planning and construction

So, in 2014 dollars EE cost $139 million. You expect them to spend in that ballpark on an indoor ride that is in an existing show building? Can I ask this if you actually heard they were spending $150 million on this ride, would it make you happy? Or would you just be complaining about how much money they were wasting on a Frozen ride?


In the end though - we're speculating on some random post on a message board as to what the budgets are. You do realize there's probably about 25 people in the world that actually know the budget number for this job, and if you asked me I would bet $100 that $75 million is NOT the right number.

If I went over to that message board and said "I heard it was $200 million" would we then start speculating on that?

 

[Andrew015]

Wait - if they spent $100 million on Little Mermaid, and built an entire building from the ground up, that seems like this will be a pretty extensive re-do at 75% the cost.

Guessing here (but a slightly educated one at that), I would think that depending on the scope of the project, a "retrofit" would have the potential to be just as costly as "new construction".

In any event, as underwhelming as Little Mermaid is, this doesn't inspire much confidence...

 

[Yellowstonetim]

$75 million is a heck of a lot of money (Assuming it is true, it probably isn't) and implies they are not just going to slap Frozen in Maelstrom and rename it. So we may getting a decent ride and a redesign. It will be interesting to see what happens when construction starts. Some may not like it, but a great deal went into Little Mermaid.

I hope it is $75 million. They can do a lot!

It really doesn't matter what Disney does, though, Disney will always be wrong.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

$75 million is a heck of a lot of money (Assuming it is true, it probably isn't) and implies they are not just going to slap Frozen in Maelstrom and rename it. So we may getting a decent ride and a redesign. It will be interesting to see what happens when construction starts. Some may not like it, but a great deal went into Little Mermaid.

I hope it is $75 million. They can do a lot!

It really doesn't matter what Disney does, though, Disney will always be wrong.

Oh boy...
No it REALLY isn't.

First, they have shown a laughable trend of over estimating budget for PR...then quietly drawing it down in recent years (the fantasyland was "big" at first...we'll never know for sure but I don't see that level of investment in the product)

Second...or 1A...is that they are ENTIRELY accountant run now...which means an overbudget pad in the budget...less product

Often times under Disney, tatum, walker, miller, and even early Eisner...they would say what they had to for the bankers and deal with the budget later to get the dirt moving.

Third, and this is the killer...off the shelf roller coaster cost 35 mil and up now...and that's not the expensive stuff...18 months of theming is.


I know, I know...we agree to disagree.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Oh boy...
I know, I know...we agree to disagree.

Haha! Yes. I am not expecting any new technology. It may be another Little Mermaid, but more likely a boat ride. While old hat, they could do a lot to Maelstrom with $75 to rehab and re-theme. I will be curious to see any plans when they show up.

I expect new technology to come in Pandora and/or Star Wars.