Hey Bigkid... looks like we have kids roughly the same ages (we have a 8,7,and 3). We've enjoyed every resort we have visited. We have never had a problem switching over to our resort of choice (I always book at our home -- BWV -- at 11 mos mark, then switch at 7 mos!) We invariably get a 2br (those family of 5 dynamics just lend themselves to a 2 br... we always bring a few family members along to join the fun!) We have 205 pts. I can totally see us adding about 45 more to make it 250. We found that with our travel distance, we would rather take one long trip every 2 years than more frequent small ones. (WDW is about a 15-16 hr drive for us, and due to crummy logistics, a 5 to 9 hr flight with no less than 1 to 3 changeovers -- ugh! So we drive!) Plus, we like to reallllly unwind, to soak up all that the resorts and area have to offer, and it takes us a good 12 days to do that! And even THEN... we still leave wanting more...
In our case, all that was offered was BWV when we joined, and naive souls that we were, we knew NOTHING about a resale. Had we known, we *might* have gotten an OKW resale... hard to say. If we were buying for the first time today, what would I do? Hmmmm.... again, we might check out resale. We might put in an offer on 250 pts at VWL (although DH would probably fight me for BCV...). But in the end, I think we would look at that extra 12 yrs, and the presale offer, and transaction ease (no ROFR worries), and the WDW financing... and it would just be too easy to go DVC through Disney and buy at SSR. Unless you're intrinsically opposed to the SSR themeing, or you want optimal leverage for say, a GV at OKW, I can't see how you'll go wrong with SSR. And I don't think basing a choice on dues is a sure thing either -- can't always predict which resort will rise/faal/maintain its dues rate. (Sure wish BWV rates would fall, though!) Just do yourselves a favor and really look hard at how many pts you want... check not just your needs now but your needs 10 yrs down the road. When kids are in school and sports, it sure changes your schedule, and your pts needs. We used to go in January... now with school, baseball, and soccer about the only free time we have is August! Big diff in pts. Renting a 2br (versus a 1br or studio) sure changes things too. We had 2 small boys when we joined, but then added a dd, so as they grow up the gender diffs will make sleeping arrangements more complicated. I wish we had just bought 250 when we joined -- but by our calculations, 175 was just right. We added 30 pts this spring, and *should* have added 50 or 75 instead, but economy and company stock being what it is / was, and school tuitions and college funds needing to be paid... we were chicken, I admit it! Hindsight is 20/20, but we goofed by not originally thinking of school issues, size of room, and that a long vacation (that includes wkends) would be more preferable, all at the very beginning when were financing. (We financed our main contract, but paid it off this yr, so all our DVC -- except dues -- is paid for!) Of course, had we bought 250 then, we probably would now be saying we WISH we had bought 300! Points are addictive... just read these boards and you'll see!
As for comparing a value resort to DVC -- DON'T. A friend of mine with 3 kids (dds aged 8,7,and 2) just returned from a week-long stay in a moderate. She had previously stayed in only deluxe. She noted to me that NEVER AGAIN would they do that...and there were no specific problems with the room, and yes, it was geared for 5 (had the daybed option). Her description of her 2 yr old bouncing like tigger on all their heads makes me laugh now, but for her, I can clearly see it was just NOT a vacation in the room! She hadn't realized how cramped the room would feel at night, with all 5 in there. I can't even imagine what her thoughts would have been had she ever stayed in a DVC villa. Night and day. Also consider what you gain in a dvc villa that a simple room can't offer... kitchen and laundry facilities alone save a family major bucks and hassle. It's one thing to all eat cereal in the room, huddled on the bed or at a tiny table in the corner, using the milk you kept on ice in a cooler or rental fridge. It's another to have the kids eating cereal (or pancakes and bacon, even!) at a nice big table, you're on the couch comfortably sipping coffee and watching the morning weather on TV, and DH is peacefully sleeping late in the king bed in the other room. Now THAT's a vacation! And with the washer/dryer in the 1 and 2 br villas -- it sure saves packing space, especially with kids who are known for (a) being creatures of habit, sometimes wanting to wear the same outfits again and again and (b) are able to soil that outfit within the first 5 minutes of wearing it! I can throw clothes in at night, and have them ready in the am... can't get that in a value resort.
Sorry to be so long-winded. Good luck with your decision and can't wait to wish you a welcome home!
Cindy