Rumor on possible new DVC resort

[TigerLaw]

So I saw this on screamscape's website, and got all excited - could it be the long wished for (at least by me anyway) Polynesian DVC resort?!? Not so much - here's the rumor for what its worth:

New DVC Resort - Rumor - (5/31/10) Is Walt Disney World planning their next big DVC Resort? According to a new rumor sent in, plans may have been drawn up for a new resort project across the street from Disney’s Coronado resort that would feature some kind of California theme to it along with a nice pathway over to Blizzard Beach. More when we find out.

 

[wildernessDad]

It doesn't read like a Polynesian DVC resort to me.

 

[RobDoc]

If it's across from CSR and within walking distance to BB, it's about 5 miles from the Poly.

 

[nunzia]

So I saw this on screamscape's website, and got all excited - could it be the long wished for (at least by me anyway) Polynesian DVC resort?!? Not so much - here's the rumor for what its worth:

New DVC Resort - Rumor - (5/31/10) Is Walt Disney World planning their next big DVC Resort? According to a new rumor sent in, plans may have been drawn up for a new resort project across the street from Disney’s Coronado resort that would feature some kind of California theme to it along with a nice pathway over to Blizzard Beach. More when we find out.

I think the OP was just making note that they had hoped the next DVC would be Polynesian and this wasn't going to happen...

 

[ilovepooh]

I would think if it was a polynesian theme it would be built closer to the poly itself. The California themed one sounds nice though!!

 

[TigerLaw]

sorry for not being more clear, I hoped the rumor was for a poly-themed DVC, but alas, it was not.

I wonder when someone will make a DCA joke about the rumored theme?

 

[Zip-a-dee-dude-da]

According to my buddy who is in sales management at DVC, plans have been drawn up for a new resort project.

It seems it is waiting be greenlit when a certain percentage of the Kidani Villlage dvc stock is sold. It will be in the Old Key West / Saratoga springs mold only not as large as SSR.....Sections will be based on parts of California...

I dont know specifics but Huntington Beach (Surf City), Redwood Forrest, Palm Springs and Beverly Hills are a few possibilities but Im just speculating on that....

WHAT DO YOU THINK....Is tis an Idea worth moving forward with?

I think it has great possibilities

 

[Chuck S]

If it is, I imagine it will be a pretty small DVC resort, much like the VWL addition. T..hey'll be pushing VGC and Hawaii. They'll have a lot of Hawaii units to sell, and historically offsite has not sold extremely well...plus the current economic troubles in California, which is likely the target market for Hawaiian ownerships. They won't want to be stuck with a lot of inventory that isn't selling.

 

[Zip-a-dee-dude-da]

If it is, I imagine it will be a pretty small DVC resort, much like the VWL addition. T..hey'll be pushing VGC and Hawaii. They'll have a lot of Hawaii units to sell, and historically offsite has not sold extremely well...plus the current economic troubles in California, which is likely the target market for Hawaiian ownerships. They won't want to be stuck with a lot of inventory that isn't selling.

The Grand californian is just about sold out now......and the Hawaii units are being pushed on the west coast and in JAPAN heavily ...According to my friend Tokyo Disney has just opened its first DVC center touting the Hawaii resort as many Japaneese tourists visit Hawaii on Holiday. How long before there is a TokyoDisney DVC ............

 

[ssawka]

If it is, I imagine it will be a pretty small DVC resort, much like the VWL addition. T..hey'll be pushing VGC and Hawaii. They'll have a lot of Hawaii units to sell, and historically offsite has not sold extremely well...plus the current economic troubles in California, which is likely the target market for Hawaiian ownerships. They won't want to be stuck with a lot of inventory that isn't selling.

I disagree, DVD needs to constantly have inventory for sale at WDW despite what off-site properties they are currently selling. Basically, HI and CA have very different customer bases than WDW. So a lot of the speculation depends on how close BLT and AKV are to selling out. Once they are sold out, DVD will not want to get caught without WDW inventory. Think about it, if you are a family that goes to WDW yearly, why would you buy into VGC or HI?

 

[DebbieB]

You think they would have learned with SSR that a resort not within walking distance to a park is going to have problems selling & maintaining occupancy (except AKV, which has the animals at the resort). All we need is another DVC where people buy to get into the system but plan to stay elsewhere. Before you know it they will be upgrading people from the values to fill rooms but the other resorts will be hard to get into under 7 months.

I was hoping for a GF DVC.

 

[Chuck S]

I disagree, DVD needs to constantly have inventory for sale at WDW despite what off-site properties they are currently selling. Basically, HI and CA have very different customer bases than WDW. So a lot of the speculation depends on how close BLT and AKV are to selling out. Once they are sold out, DVD will not want to get caught without WDW inventory. Think about it, if you are a family that goes to WDW yearly, why would you buy into VGC or HI?

But, they haven't built a deluxe cash resort since AKL, and are upgrading people from values to fill the rooms because the values are so popular. Now, they are rumored to begin construction on the other half of Pop with a re-themed value family suite resort. Unless they need some Deluxe rooms, and are willing to build another deluxe/DVC combined resort, that means that this new project would be a free standing DVC, like OKW and SSR. I really doubt they need another 500 to 800 unit DVC resort onsite. DVC may have reached close to market saturation in FL, and they will concentrate on selling offsite projects. Remember, they also have a lot of inventory in existing DVCs to get rid of, either through ROFR or payment defaults. Hawaii isn't like Vero, it isn't being built in phases to where they can simply stop construction if it doesn't sell well. And look how long it is taking to sell out in California with only 50 units.

 

[Sammie]

I agree with everything that Chuck stated, but I will not be the least bit surprised to see them do this. They are not making good decisions lately in my opinion.

 

[ssawka]

But, they haven't built a deluxe cash resort since AKL, and are upgrading people from values to fill the rooms because the values are so popular. Now, they are rumored to begin construction on the other half of Pop with a re-themed value family suite resort. Unless they need some Deluxe rooms, and are willing to build another deluxe/DVC combined resort, that means that this new project would be a free standing DVC, like OKW and SSR. I really doubt they need another 500 to 800 unit DVC resort onsite. DVC may have reached close to market saturation in FL, and they will concentrate on selling offsite projects. Remember, they also have a lot of inventory in existing DVCs to get rid of, either through ROFR or payment defaults. Hawaii isn't like Vero, it isn't being built in phases to where they can simply stop construction if it doesn't sell well. And look how long it is taking to sell out in California with only 50 units.

I hear what you are saying, but when it comes to the bottom line, DVC really is not about filling rooms, it is about selling contracts. In order to do that, they need to have a bright and shiny resort to show people. Although it is true that they may have inventory in the existing resorts, most people want "new". Personally, although I like having the options available of off-site resorts, however I think off-site resorts are a harder sell for them, because I think it is harder to find people that want to make one of the off-site resorts their home resort. However, I do agree that there are better locations to put a DVC resort than next to Blizzard Beach.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC may have reached close to market saturation in FL, and they will concentrate on selling offsite projects. Remember, they also have a lot of inventory in existing DVCs to get rid of, either through ROFR or payment defaults.

What indicators do you feel show that FL has reached market saturation for DVC? It appears to me that BLT and AKV are selling at a decent clip for this economy - at least they aren't showing a decline over the last few months from reports I've seen.

I see the DVC resorts as filling what would have been the need for Disney to build new Deluxe resorts at WDW.

 

[franandaj]

VGC is rumoured to sell out before the end of summer. CMs in CA have already been briefed on a DVC tower going in at the DL Hotel which will be all DVC, but with the delays in bringing out WoC, the Little Mermaid Ride and Cars Land the construction has been put on hold. Evidently Californians are just starting to get on board with the whole DVC concept which could possibly lead to more demand at WDW.

From what I read on the DISboards I get the idea that the initial owners at VGC added on. But every day almost someone new posts on the VGC Owners thread that they just joined DVC at the VGC. I also read that points are going for $90 at the Chicago Doorway to Dreams! I paid $114 a year ago!

Think how many people who have never been to WDW (there are tons in CA who see no need because they don't think it's any different than DL) will decide to try it since they're owners in CA, and get hooked and then need to buy in FL. There is still a huge market out there and Disney knows that.

Plus a lot of people will want the newer units with two bathrooms in the one BRs, the older units will not seem nearly as attractive to families when you take that into account.

 

[Chuck S]

But they certainly don't need a sprawling DVC campus like SSR or OKW with 500+ rooms. A smaller freestanding DVC resort is not attractive, because dues to provide the needed services, like transportation, would be high. In order to share those expenses, Disney has traditionally built accompanying Deluxe cash resorts to share those costs, or a large DVC condo style resort, so the costs are shared by many, many owners. The alternative would be to make point per night requirements extremely high for a new smaller DVC resort to lower the maintenance per point, as we've seen at VGC. Or to make the building a high rise, with a smaller overall resort footprint, thus less grounds keeping/maintenance required. Such a high rise in the mentioned location would have horrible "views" and be unpopular.

 

[Brian Noble]

But, they haven't built a deluxe cash resort since AKL, and are upgrading people from values to fill the rooms because the values are so popular.

Cash resorts and timeshares are completely different beasts. They've been falling all over themselves building DVC resorts since AKL came on line in April '01, and all are in the Deluxe cateogry. BCV opened in July '02, SSR's first phase in May '04, AKV in '07-'09, and BLT in '09. Indeed, they've actually taken rooms *out* of cash status to make way for more DVC units: the top two floors of AKL, and the North Wing of CR.

True, the Values are over-subscribed, and the higher priced (cash) properties are under-subscribed, but part of that is due to the current general economic conditions. People are looking for bargains, and not feeling flush. A few years' worth of recovery and this too shall pass. But, even during that time, DVC has sold adequately well---not as well as before the '08 crash, but adequately. Frankly, I'm surprised at how well DVC sales have kept up in the past year and a half.

As for market saturation: as long as new families come to WDW every year---and they do---then DVC has a market for WDW properties that isn't saturated. Some fraction of those "newbies" will get bitten by the bug, and want to "own a piece of the magic." The Parks & Resorts segment has become positively addicted to the profit center that is DVD, and the built-in captive audience has strong residual effects in helping WDW as a whole weather economic downturns. I can see sales slowing down some---the core Disneyana vein has probably been tapped out---but my guess is that WDW will stop selling on-property DVC contracts only when they run out of property that can be developed.

 

[Brian Noble]

A smaller freestanding DVC resort is not attractive, because dues to provide the needed services, like transportation, would be high.

This is exactly why I can't imagine the rumored plot south of CSR would be anything but another big resort.

 

[Chuck S]

This is exactly why I can't imagine the rumored plot south of CSR would be anything but another big resort.

But at the same time, the large campus resorts aren't as popular as the resorts associated with a Deluxe, which seems unlikely in this case. And there is nothing particularly attractive about the location. No "draw" like OKW/SSR having DtD. A water park wouldn't be a draw in the winter.