Rain chance 80%

[luvmytwins02]

Getting nervous. I know rain is expected daily...but the weather channel is saying 80% chance of rain for mon- tues-wed next week when we are there....does this mean all day rain or just an 80% chance of rain some time in the day?

 

[Missyrose]

Getting nervous. I know rain is expected daily...but the weather channel is saying 80% chance of rain for mon- tues-wed next week when we are there....does this mean all day rain or just an 80% chance of rain some time in the day?

There is an 80 percent chance it will rain for between 20 and 60 minutes, maybe a smidge longer. It doesn't mean it will rain all day every day.

 

[snayak]

I actually just read an article about this, found out it was dead wrong, the read another article and edited this post!

This is copied from NOAA.gov FAQs

The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area.

How do forecasters arrive at this value?

Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows:

PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

So... if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.)

But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. )

In either event, the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area.

Don't get me started on partly cloudy vs partly sunny vs mostly sunny.

 

[scoutie]

It will likely be sunny in the morning and early afternoon. Expect a rain shower in the afternoon for around an hour. We were just there, and with the exception of one day, there were storms each day. It cooled things down, and the sun came out later.

 

[oceanmarina]

Getting nervous. I know rain is expected daily...but the weather channel is saying 80% chance of rain for mon- tues-wed next week when we are there....does this mean all day rain or just an 80% chance of rain some time in the day?

I was getting nervous too (we check in on Tuesday) we always go this time every year and the forcast usually reads 30% chance of rain (which ends up being a quick afternoon thunderstorm) but when I saw 80% chance of rain for several days, I was worried that meant all day rain I sure hope we get some pool days

 

[Robo]

Ignore any forecast more than 24 hours away.

 

[csm101]

SO???? who cares if it rains? Your at WDW. I'm at work, Enjoy the pixie dust and relax. Get wet, have fun - perhaps the park will be a little lighter on attendance look at it that way.

 

[luvmytwins02]

I am not worried about doing the parks in the rain, it 's more a bummer for taking photos! We got a really jice camera this year we are bringing aling, and I would love some beautiful/sunny photos around the parks. If it rains, we will STILL enjoy the parks, and the shorter lines it might bring! Eekk.....just 4 more days!

 

[larie21]

When we went in June, it rained every single day we were there. Sometimes it even stormed a couple times a day. We had to adjust our plans a little bit, but we put our ponchos on and sill had a blast! And the rain was really a blessing to cool down the extreme heat.

 

[Missyrose]

I am not worried about doing the parks in the rain, it 's more a bummer for taking photos! We got a really jice camera this year we are bringing aling, and I would love some beautiful/sunny photos around the parks. If it rains, we will STILL enjoy the parks, and the shorter lines it might bring! Eekk.....just 4 more days!

It's summer at Disney, you will have plenty of sunny times in the parks. You might even get to the point where you'd wish it would rain.

 

[Heckah]

Typically, that means they expect the showers/tstorms to be more widespread.

But it really pays to have a radar app on your phone and have a basic understanding of what it all means. Most people don't.

A 30 minute downpour is your friend. Time a indoor show or lunch when the radar gives you an indication that it will happen and watch people stream out of the park and enjoy the rest of your day.

 

[lugnut33]

National Weather Service says 40% chance, which reflects the normal afternoon thunderstorm activity that happens everyday in that region. Expect afternoon and early evening t-storms.

I wouldn't pay attention to the Weather Channel site.

 

[Mrs Eeyore]

We were there during the monsoons of May '09. My advice is to get a good poncho, wear comfy sandals rather than socks/shoes, and be prepared for lonely and bored CMs to be calling you over to empty rides. At least that's what happened to us, tho admittedly five years ago. Not a bad way to do the parks IMO.

 

[flutterby3744]

Accuweather has a fairly accurate hour by hour breakdown. I checked it every morning and adjusted accordingly when we were there, and it was spot on. Don't worry about it until the day of. It's not a hurricane. You will have plenty of opportunities for sunny pictures.

 

[epcotty]

The weather channel isn't as reliable as NOAA.gov, I don't think. weather channel was constantly saying 80% for every day we were planning to go so we kept delaying it. Finally we were like " let's go even though weather channel's saying 80% during the day and 60% during the night, NOAA/weather.gov's saying 50% during the day and 20% during the night." Turned out there was about 1 1/2 hours constant rain and storms in the afternoon (when we were doing the inside attractions anyway, had already done the outside ones due to rain chance) and that was mostly it, only occasional rain after that which wasn't much.

 

[x5x5x5x5x5]

Ignore any forecast more than 24 hours away.

This.