If you bought into
DVC at presale levels at $48/point
If you want to always stay in a 2 bedroom unit during dream season - not the most expensive but gets you any week but holidays.
Say you bought into OKW in 1991 and you paid $48/point for 300 points to do that. That's $14,400 outlay initially. They used to say the break even point was 5-7 years so let's say 7 years and let's add in the dues in 1998 x 7, which is a little higher than the dues per year, but I'm lazy. So after 7 years you will have paid another $6657 in dues. So after 7 years your total cash outlay was just a hair over $21,000, or $3000 per year, or the equivalent of paying about $400 per night before taxes for a 2 bedroom luxurious home away from home unit.
Let's run the same numbers at copper creek.
a 2 bedroom villa during magic season is 350 points. The cost per point is $182/point. So your initial buy in for enough points for a 2 bedroom villa yearly is $63,700. Say 7 years of dues at the current level, another $17,800 in dues. Total outlay is $81,500 for 7 years of 2 bedroom units, which is roughly the equivalent of $1,560 per night before taxes.
My guess is that the average DVC buyer is not spending $1,560 per night for their accommodations. Per an inflation calculator, $1,560 in 2018 dollars was about half that in 1991 dollars so even accounting for inflation, the price of a 2 bedroom has doubled.
But look at a studio in magic season. Then you only need 130 points. Initial buy in is $23,660. 7 years of dues at current levels is another $6,600. Total outlay = $30,200 or $4,315 a year or around $575 a night before taxes. Now I'm sure people will get discounted rates and spend less than that on a deluxe so maybe the break even point is more like 10 years than 7. But what I'm saying is THAT is in the ballpark of what people are already paying for deluxe accommodations. paying 3x as much for a unit 3x the size is probably WAY WAY WAY out of reach (at least year to year) for most remotely middle class people. Even upper middle class are probably not paying nearly $12,000 a year for hotel only on a luxury vacation which is what you're paying for the larger units.
I may LIKE a 1 bedroom but I have always compared to studios. a 2 bedroom is really 3x the cost of a studio because it takes 3 studio units to make it. That is a luxury product even above and beyond the luxury product that is a DVC studio. I'm guessing MOST people can't afford that on a regular basis (or might save points year to year and take trips every other year to afford to take family and friends along). But people who bought in in the 90's and early 2000's have long since broken even and now I am looking at being able to stay in a studio for 7-10 nights (depending where) for about $850 in dues. A 2 bedroom is not nearly as much of a splurge for me than for someone who bought in recently because I LONG ago recovered my initial buy in price, even compared to $140 a night boardwalk/beach club/yacht club AP rates that I compared against. So maybe it takes 2 years worth of points or $1700 worth of dues. Still $230 a night is not that out of reach for a middle class person. $1500+ is.
Disney needs more studios because the only people who can afford the larger units are members who bought in at an older resort and the upper end of income of new members buying in. MOST people who buy in are going to be able to afford studios. And that's why they book way faster than anything else.
