Poll- When do you think cruises will start back up?

[mab2012]

Didn't vote, because at this point I would hate to even guess.

You might just as well ask, "When do you think people will be willing to accept the consequences of letting this virus circulate?" Until then, it's hard to see how a cruise could operate in the absence of an effective vaccine, treatment, or maybe a rapid test. But nothing would surprise me now.

 

[miller4x4]

I suspect not until next year.
Mostly because I'm seeing the University of California considering all on-line classes next fall.

Universities are high contact environments, true. However, Universities are MUCH more important to society than cruise ships and Disney.

I think Disney and cruise ships will be among the LAST things to come back to "normal".

(Think of the nightmare that was that Princess cruise. NONE of the cruise lines OR the CDC want that to happen again.)

Something to consider too is that the University of California likely already had an existing online learning infrastructure and the transfer from resident to online classes will still enable them to provide their services. It is much easier for an organization to commit to a transition to online when the impact is relatively minor in comparison to something like a cruise line who has no such option.

 

[monkeydawn]

Very interesting poll results. I voted for August/Sept...primarily because that's when I'm set to cruise. The next few months will be crucial in terms of how the cruise industry further responds and we've already seen new restrictions and protocols drop which means the ships could be sailing a lot sooner than expected. If so, it will mean a lot of itinerary changes due to closed ports.

Ports are important to people so I'm not sure how Disney will handle it. If i'm on a 7-night and 3 of the ports are closed..it's basically all sea days which is unfortunate. It will just be interesting to see how DCL handles those cruises and if they offer a full refund if you are not satisified or only the option to rebook another cruise. When it comes to the contract....you are basically in the hands of Disney and if a ship does not dock you get refunded the port fees but this is a different situation as you know ahead of time where it will or won't be going.

I'm not 100% certain what you are getting at but contractually it is the same, not a different situation. Of course some laws would have to change before DCL could knowingly do a cruise to no where departing and ending in the US.

In my opinion, DCL would owe people nothing if COVID is still a danger and they are not allowed to stop at any ports. Well, port fees, but that is is. The dangers of cruising during COVID should be well known by that point and if someone wants to take them on then they really need to be ok with possibly no port stops.

 

[4077]

That's an interesting question... if CO VID-19 becomes a revolving and recurring theme AND cruising resumes, at what point would industry (or perhaps specifically DCL) stop giving reimbursement for an issue that is known by all parties to frequently impact...?

 

[Clojel]

I think it will all be about tipping the scales. Right now, the 2 conflicting issues are the safety of the general public AND the strength of the economy. If the states continue to observe social distancing and flatten the curve over the next few months, eventually, the need for a robust economy will outweigh the concerns about catching the virus. The less people that get sick, the more likely it is for business to return to usual -- EVEN IF the reality is that we'll face a pretty substantial rebound by the virus when we do. People tend to make decisions based on the facts they have at hand, not on what "could possibly happen". So, my guess is, over the next few months, we'll see the number of infected people drop and we'll see the states start to loosen restrictions. I would say by about June/July, we'll have seen most of the "state of emergency" orders lifted across the country and business will begin to return to normal. And, by September/October...we'll see the cruises sailing again.

Also, it is worth noting, that I think the cruise ships will sail BEFORE the parks open. Once you are on a ship, you have a finite number of people to monitor/take precautions for....but at the parks, its a constant changeover of new and old people on an hourly, if not minute to minute, basis.

 

[Donna3271]

Also, it is worth noting, that I think the cruise ships will sail BEFORE the parks open. Once you are on a ship, you have a finite number of people to monitor/take precautions for....but at the parks, its a constant changeover of new and old people on an hourly, if not minute to minute, basis.

Great observation.

 

[Husker Mike]

I think it will all be about tipping the scales. Right now, the 2 conflicting issues are the safety of the general public AND the strength of the economy. If the states continue to observe social distancing and flatten the curve over the next few months, eventually, the need for a robust economy will outweigh the concerns about catching the virus. The less people that get sick, the more likely it is for business to return to usual -- EVEN IF the reality is that we'll face a pretty substantial rebound by the virus when we do. People tend to make decisions based on the facts they have at hand, not on what "could possibly happen". So, my guess is, over the next few months, we'll see the number of infected people drop and we'll see the states start to loosen restrictions. I would say by about June/July, we'll have seen most of the "state of emergency" orders lifted across the country and business will begin to return to normal. And, by September/October...we'll see the cruises sailing again

Restrictions are now loosening in many areas. That's a big assumption that the number of people affected will drop over the next few months; as things start to reopen, I think it's highly likely that numbers will increase, not decrease. The criteria seems to be whether our healthcare system can handle the increased number of cases. If our hospitals become overwhelmed, restrictions will be reimplemented.

 

[Clojel]

Restrictions are now loosening in many areas. That's a big assumption that the number of people affected will drop over the next few months; as things start to reopen, I think it's highly likely that numbers will increase, not decrease. The criteria seems to be whether our healthcare system can handle the increased number of cases. If our hospitals become overwhelmed, restrictions will be reimplemented.

Oh, I'm inclined to agree...I actually think its MORE likely that we end up with a "second wave" and we see restrictions being put BACK in place after they've been lifted. I just think that the areas that ARE maintaining the restrictions will see the decrease and IF that happens, then we will see restrictions lifted across the board because of concern for the strength of our economy and public outcry for things to return to normal. If TOO MANY areas continue to lift restrictions prematurely, then you are right, the numbers will increase. I'm theorizing (hoping) that they don't!