Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[LaidBackDad]

I don't care for Caribbean for me...but that doesn't mean I "hate" it. If fits it's role and always has.

I understand it...and I know pretty much everything about it. I didn't read a book...I worked in the management office for a couple years (I don't say these things...so you win the prize)

I think you're an intelligent, witty dude...but your naïveté on the difference in hotels and prices is pretty pronounced her. As is the obsession with the google maps search of the property.

You know...just a simple bridge over western way from the pool at Coronado will get you into animal kingdom. Dvc on deck?

Animal kingdom lodge is even closer...and already deluxe and already dvc...build a rope bridge over the barns and build a tower with views of rivers of light and the dumpsters behind avatar.

I'm not saying they won't put a dvc there and sell it. That's their MO. But this is not because Caribbean has "deluxe" potential. The former doesn't make the latter true. The ambience is way inferior to the majority of visitors and That is why the pricing is what it is.

Caribbean and port are really...REALLY overpriced now. Like a lot..

But it not because they have been "undervalued"...it's because they are overpriced.

I don't want to get into these harsh realities...but there are no "soft" realities to pick here.

I appreciate your compliments. You are easily one of my favorite posters on DIS. I don't doubt your knowledge on all things CBR. But, that really may be more of a hindrance in your objectiveness on this issue. This isn't a google maps issue. It's a real estate 101 issue. CBR is the only property directly next to a park that isn't considered a luxury resort. You bring up CSR and AK but you know AK is a totally separate issue because of it's location in comparison to the other parks. There's that word again, location. Location trumps whatever silly rules you think Disney has about resort levels. For someone who has had as much experience in the hotel industry you should know better than to say at hotel room is over priced or even under priced. Prices are what they are because that's what enough people are willing to spend. You and I may be appalled at how "over priced" a room is but if it consistently sells at that price, then it's "worth it". If someone likes the ambiance of a hotel they may pay a lot of money for that hotel; but, if a hotel another has a better location and an ambiance that is not quite as nice, what hotel do you think cost more? I don't have to tell you the answer because you know the truth. That is the harsh reality and why Disney picked CBR for the DVC.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

We're back to square one...you're looking at distance without addressing logistics and operation.

My bet is canals will never be trenched...we shall see.

Adieu, mon ami

 

[skier_pete]

I'm wondering where you got the idea that the upfront cost of the construction is to finance the construction only?

As In "they're gonna sell $700 mil...so $150 mil In infrastructure behind Epcot is just a line item"

???

No -I'm more saying:
They can spend $400 million and make $700 million ($300 million in profit)
OR
They can spend $500 million and make $900 million ($400 million in profit)

Look it - if Disney thinks they can build a stand-alone DVC at CBR with no park access and charge the same amount as for the Poly or even for WL - they are pretty deluded. Not saying this isn't the case, but I have to believe they are smarter than that.

 

[skier_pete]

Wondering if we can split this topics into two (or more) threads? I'd like one about hard news on the CBR expansion, separate from the speculation of what could happen.

Having a thread about hard news at this point doesn't make sense - there's going to be no news on this for at least a year. They won't even start construction until the Copper Creek construction is complete.

 

[skier_pete]

First and foremost, great thread. Love all of the different opinions. Time to weigh in. For the record, I'm a DVC member since 93. As a result, my perspective is solely based on my experience rather than looking at plans etc. Disney has been systematically converting deluxe resorts to DVC for one main reason, Disney can't book deluxe rooms at those prices. As a result, they are converting some of their deluxe inventory to DVC to reduce their potential financial risk while locking in long term contracts. However, values and moderates have been booking well. At times, when I look for a room for a last minute trip quite often the only thing available are deluxe resorts at outrageous prices, so I pass. So, why in the world would Disney convert 1 of only 3 moderates to DVC when moderates book well??? I'm not buying it. I think Disney will increase the number of rooms at CBR with some upgrades to make up for some of the lost inventory due to the deluxe conversions to DVC into a category where demand is high.
Also, LOL is right, CBR DVC does not fit with members expectations.
At least it will be fun seeing how it shakes out.

Your logic on the surface is very good - they want to expand the moderates to have more accommodations.

The flaw in your logic though @Goofy DVC : In the plans, they are taking out 9 buildings - or 576 rooms. A tower won't have more rooms than that. Bay Lake Tower has 428 rooms, and it's a 15 story tower. It's very unlikely this adds any rooms to the property, and more likely it's less rooms. Why would they spend hundreds of millions of dollars to reduce the number of moderate rooms? It makes much more sense to say they are "converting" those rooms to DVC - which is much more profitable for Disney than moderate resorts.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

No -I'm more saying:
They can spend $400 million and make $700 million ($300 million in profit)
OR
They can spend $500 million and make $900 million ($400 million in profit)

Look it - if Disney thinks they can build a stand-alone DVC at CBR with no park access and charge the same amount as for the Poly or even for WL - they are pretty deluded. Not saying this isn't the case, but I have to believe they are smarter than that.

Touchdown!!!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Having a thread about hard news at this point doesn't make sense - there's going to be no news on this for at least a year. They won't even start construction until the Copper Creek construction is complete.

Thank you...I love how we get requests to limit the discussion on the discussion boards.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Your logic on the surface is very good - they want to expand the moderates to have more accommodations.

The flaw in your logic though @Goofy DVC : In the plans, they are taking out 9 buildings - or 576 rooms. A tower won't have more rooms than that. Bay Lake Tower has 428 rooms, and it's a 15 story tower. It's very unlikely this adds any rooms to the property, and more likely it's less rooms. Why would they spend hundreds of millions of dollars to reduce the number of moderate rooms? It makes much more sense to say they are "converting" those rooms to DVC - which is much more profitable for Disney than moderate resorts.

You're correct...which strongly points to timeshare...

And yet that doesn't make any sense if you step back and look at the bigger picture.

This is like an antithetical idea: push the boundaries and see what they can get away with and risk upsetting the apple cart.

One thing i don't doubt is their market research. Which means one of threee things:
1. They've lost their minds
2. They have data to tell them that the consumers have lost their minds
3. Both (1) and (2)

I've always thought that disney will shed the hotel business at some point...just attempt to get free profits from an operation without overhead investment (cough...Espn...cough)...is this another step towards it?

 

[OKW Lover]

I know Disney made a conscious effort to try to get out of the hotel business

Not sure where this comes from. In the most recent Disney annual report they talk about expanding the number of hotel rooms.

Having a thread about hard news at this point doesn't make sense - there's going to be no news on this for at least a year. They won't even start construction until the Copper Creek construction is complete.

I'd be happy to just follow that thread so that when there is activity it will pop up in my watched threads page.

 

[skier_pete]

You're correct...which strongly points to timeshare...

And yet that doesn't make any sense if you step back and look at the bigger picture.

This is like an antithetical idea: push the boundaries and see what they can get away with and risk upsetting the apple cart.

One thing i don't doubt is their market research. Which means one of threee things:
1. They've lost their minds
2. They have data to tell them that the consumers have lost their minds
3. Both (1) and (2)

I've always thought that disney will shed the hotel business at some point...just attempt to get free profits from an operation without overhead investment (cough...Espn...cough)...is this another step towards it?

This is why it's such a fun debate - pretty much every variation we can come up with doesn't make sense in some way, whether its a moderate, a DVC moderate, a DVC deluxe with no park access, or DVC with built park access - there's easy ways in each case to say "Disney wouldn't do that because..." based on past practices.

It's such a unique situation which is why its fun to speculate.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

This is why it's such a fun debate - pretty much every variation we can come up with doesn't make sense in some way, whether its a moderate, a DVC moderate, a DVC deluxe with no park access, or DVC with built park access - there's easy ways in each case to say "Disney wouldn't do that because..." based on past practices.

It's such a unique situation which is why its fun to speculate.

You see it as "cool"...

...I see each angle as another torch to burn Graceland down with.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Not sure where this comes from. In the most recent Disney annual report they talk about expanding the number of hotel rooms.

They absolutely would like to shed the operational cost of running hotels. Roy O. Famously stated in the 60's that they are "an entertainment company, not a hotel operator"

They've dabbled with this over the years...but never felt comfortable enough to pull the trigger.

The money is not in running hotels...minor return on costs...and the stock don't like that.

 

[Madonna3]

Monorail resorts are great and have their advantages. Epcot resorts are different and have their own advantages.

I would wet my pants and start selling body parts if we could have an Epcot monorail resort.

I gotta ask, if they could have charged $300/night for the last 20 years and just needed a walkway to do it, why haven't they? Did they just discover google maps?

This.

You know...just a simple bridge over western way from the pool at Coronado will get you into animal kingdom. Dvc on deck?

Animal kingdom lodge is even closer...and already deluxe and already dvc...build a rope bridge over the barns and build a tower with views of rivers of light and the dumpsters behind avatar.

jerk. ya got me to snort my tea again.

 

[sachilles]

Well, the plans we can see only show one "tower". In the plans it appears the footprint is roughly twice the size of blt. So I think that needs to be factored in capacity.
Also the plans we see were for water, not every building in the development had to be represented on it.
This may also be the first phase of construction meant to minimize the loss of beds.
Start with Barbados. Complete construction. Section by section demolish and build anew.

 

[zemra406]

Yes, you are correct. Before the Boardwalk was built, there was a tram which stopped at the Swan/Dolphin and then YC. The tram then followed the path around Crescent Lake where the Boardwalk was eventually built to the international gateway entrance to Epcot.

Wow I didn't know that. Could see them bringing something like that back. Never knew that area outside IG was a turnaround. My daughter loves running laps around it before we enter the park. It's kinda her thing

ETA: some cool footage from youtube of the tram. So weird without the boardwalk hotel there.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Look it - if Disney thinks they can build a stand-alone DVC at CBR with no park access and charge the same amount as for the Poly or even for WL - they are pretty deluded. Not saying this isn't the case, but I have to believe they are smarter than that.

I agree with that statement but are they thinking: "What is the minimum we need to do to be able to sell it for close to what WL or BLT sold for?" .... would some upgraded amenities and a cool tower (with restaurant/bar on the roof, etc.) and say a dedicated bus be enough to let them charge close to what they are charging today/point and similar points/night.

If there is now way to do that then I only see three options as being:
- This is just the first step in building a collection of Deluxe DVC in that area (so not just CBR but also new resort, upgrate AoA, etc.) - which will include some form of direct park access (like tram or boat to both EPCOT and DHS)
- This isn't DVC but rather more suites and some upgraded rooms (so like moderate version of what they have at AoA) - eventually be able to charge more per room in same land footprint
- The start of separated moderate DVC structure (which, while not impossible, seems like a huge step and creates lots of challenges)

Am I missing something else?

 

[Friendlyadvice2]

Wow I didn't know that. Could see them bringing something like that back. Never knew that area outside IG was a turnaround. My daughter loves running laps around it before we enter the park. It's kinda her thing

ETA: some cool footage from youtube of the tram. So weird without the boardwalk hotel there.

That IS weird not seeing the BW hotel there. I think they should bring that tram back for guests to use....for a fee, of course. Just another upcharge!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I agree with that statement but are they thinking: "What is the minimum we need to do to be able to sell it for close to what WL or BLT sold for?" .... would some upgraded amenities and a cool tower (with restaurant/bar on the roof, etc.) and say a dedicated bus be enough to let them charge close to what they are charging today/point and similar points/night.

If there is now way to do that then I only see three options as being:
- This is just the first step in building a collection of Deluxe DVC in that area (so not just CBR but also new resort, upgrate AoA, etc.) - which will include some form of direct park access (like tram or boat to both EPCOT and DHS)
- This isn't DVC but rather more suites and some upgraded rooms (so like moderate version of what they have at AoA) - eventually be able to charge more per room in same land footprint
- The start of separated moderate DVC structure (which, while not impossible, seems like a huge step and creates lots of challenges)

Am I missing something else?

No...that's really it. Haven't missed anything.

Option 2 makes the most sense given the current climate...but that doesn't fit their desired financial goals.

 

[dlavender]

One thing i don't doubt is their market research. Which means one of threee things:
1. They've lost their minds
2. They have data to tell them that the consumers have lost their minds
3. Both (1) and (2)

If people really will pay the same for a CBR DVC with park access as they do for BC/BW, or BLT, then I'm going #3.

Which means they would be going #2 on current and future owners...

 

[Madonna3]

I am going with #2 in general. The current offer is if I buy 150 points at $171/pp, then I can get a week FREE at SSR!!

So I buy 150 POLY points and I can stay at SSR for FREE!! ***?!

Ooooo. 100 one time use points. So far, I don't see anyone getting overly excited about this deal, but it shows they're having to give away incentives to get the points sold. People aren't just lining up to throw their money into the pot so that's why I see this (CBR project) as an extremely hard sell for DVC in its current model.

That's why I am still sticking with my feeling that these are going to be suites to replace the rooms there and like someone said, perhaps this is just the start of this resort going vertical