Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[TheMaxRebo]

I am going with #2 in general. The current offer is if I buy 100 points at $171/pp, then I can get a week FREE at SSR or OKW....

Ooooo. 100 one time use points. So far, I don't see anyone getting overly excited about this deal, but it shows they're having to give away incentives to get the points sold. People aren't just lining up to throw their money into the pot so that's why I see this (CBR project) as an extremely hard sell for DVC in its current model.

That's why I am still sticking with my feeling that these are going to be suites to replace the rooms there and like someone said, perhaps this is just the start of this resort going vertical

Could that give credence to a new DVC model to try and expand the pot? That being the "moderate DVC" - I know it creates a ton of other issues but if they were planning on a few others and the points are separate (but perhaps you could trade 2 moderate points for one deluxe point or something) it would open it up to people that are interested in DVC but just can't come up with/justify the initial cost

 

[Madonna3]

Could that give credence to a new DVC model to try and expand the pot? That being the "moderate DVC" - I know it creates a ton of other issues but if they were planning on a few others and the points are separate (but perhaps you could trade 2 moderate points for one deluxe point or something) it would open it up to people that are interested in DVC but just can't come up with/justify the initial cost

What are they going to sell the points for? I mean, let's look at that realistically. Let's take this idea and run with it.
I honestly have no idea how they figure out selling prices for points. I'd have to wager it has something to do with the overall amount of points available to be sold and the arbitrary number of what they think those points are worth.

So... Let's say for argument's sake, it's $125 per point. That's a ~$50 savings per point off the current selling rate.

Now, we've already made the concession that we feel theme park/firework view rooms would be about 22 points per night with standards running between 8 and 14. Let's say the minimum buy in is 100 points. That means you're entry level DVC contract is $12,500. Is it more achievable than the current $17,100. Yes, but it's a difference of $5000.

For the lower point cost, you're getting what exactly? Suite accommodations at CBR? Look at the rental market. Let's take in your consideration of 2 mod points to 1 deluxe point. That means you'd have to pony up 48 points per night to stay at VGF. So, since you only have 100 points, you get 2 nights at a deluxe with an awkward 4 points to spare.

What's the hook?

 

[TheMaxRebo]

What are they going to sell the points for? I mean, let's look at that realistically. Let's take this idea and run with it.
I honestly have no idea how they figure out selling prices for points. I'd have to wager it has something to do with the overall amount of points available to be sold and the arbitrary number of what they think those points are worth.

So... Let's say for argument's sake, it's $125 per point. That's a ~$50 savings per point off the current selling rate.

Now, we've already made the concession that we feel theme park/firework view rooms would be about 22 points per night with standards running between 8 and 14. Let's say the minimum buy in is 100 points. That means you're entry level DVC contract is $12,500. Is it more achievable than the current $17,100. Yes, but it's a difference of $5000.

For the lower point cost, you're getting what exactly? Suite accommodations at CBR? Look at the rental market. Let's take in your consideration of 2 mod points to 1 deluxe point. That means you'd have to pony up 48 points per night to stay at VGF. So, since you only have 100 points, you get 2 nights at a deluxe with an awkward 4 points to spare.

What's the hook?

I agree - guess I am just trying to think that if they are having some issues with selling the remaining Deluxe DVC (with the promotion you mention and also that they have restricted some of the benefits to hose that buy resale being at least some evidence of that) how are they going to sell these as Deluxe DVC

Which means it is either not DVC or not Deluxe DVC - the later in an effort to expand who is a potential buyer

What if it was $100/night min 100 points, so that is $10K which is more achievable. And what if they could also market to people that don't go every year - you could use 2 years worth of points to stay at a deluxe .... and then there is motivation for the other way too right, if someone who has deluxe can trade 1 point for 2, get an extra trip in or something at a moderate if they want.

 

[dlavender]

I agree - guess I am just trying to think that if they are having some issues with selling the remaining Deluxe DVC (with the promotion you mention and also that they have restricted some of the benefits to hose that buy resale being at least some evidence of that) how are they going to sell these as Deluxe DVC

Which means it is either not DVC or not Deluxe DVC - the later in an effort to expand who is a potential buyer

What if it was $100/night min 100 points, so that is $10K which is more achievable. And what if they could also market to people that don't go every year - you could use 2 years worth of points to stay at a deluxe .... and then there is motivation for the other way too right, if someone who has deluxe can trade 1 point for 2, get an extra trip in or something at a moderate if they want.

This was my initial thought on this project, which is why I brought up the CBR's pool, which is really great for a Mod.

Would it be financially beneficial for Disney to sell a "lock in $130/night moderate accomodations for the next 50 years" DVC? No park access. I think if they went this route, they would almost have to go out of their way to make it less appealing to current owners. You wouldn't want everyone adding 1-2 nights on their DVC vacation, which would be appealing if CBR points were too low.

If they could just construct a tower, and nothing else, could they sell 60 pt contracts at $160/point, which would get you a week? Those 60pts aren't going too far upstream at the other DVCs. The problem is downstream. Those with 150+pts could add plenty of days.

ETA, from a buyer, the math works out. If you get 60 points, and pay $10000 for a 50 yr contract, and have ~$6/pp main fees, each trip works out to about $9/pp. That means you get a week at CBR for $540, or $80 a night. But is Disney happy with that equation? I guess that's why we are here.....

 

[Josh Hendy]

Let say you can pick up the BLT tower and all of its amenities, and plunk it down in this CBR space. Covered walkway to EPCOT.

Will people pay the same as they do for BLT where it is now vs if it were in the CBR space?

That's it. That's what I think they are building. A lightly-themed but basically generic condo tower and a pedestrian bridge to Epcot.

Probably Disney HAS lost their minds, AND they think that the public has lost their minds.

After all ... people losing their minds with respect the value of money, time, location, etc. is the definition of what happens in a credit bubble.

When you ask if people will "pay" for buying points in this tower, it's a deeper question than it appears on the surface. Are you really "paying" for something for which you've borrowed money to be paid back in a fairly indefinite and uncertain future? Based on assumptions of future income and property (resale) value that are unduly influenced by fluffy-wuffy financial hype?

It's an awesome decision when you consider that the number one, killer, drop-dead factor behind the buying decision is either, "Because we can walk over and have a beer and brautwurst at Germany in the evening", or "We can always use the points at an actually good resort in an actually good location."

 

[Grumpy6264]

Having two classes of DVC points is going to be a nightmare. I think the per point cost would remain the same as the rest of the current DVC points. They would have need to have the points per night to be lower to fit the moderate model. They already do it today with the current DVC resorts. I don't know if there the economics make it feasible to make a moderate DVC with points low enough to make people want to buy there, but they may not be able to charge that little in points per night and still turn a profit.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I am going with #2 in general. The current offer is if I buy 150 points at $171/pp, then I can get a week FREE at SSR!!

So I buy 150 POLY points and I can stay at SSR for FREE!! ***?!

Ooooo. 100 one time use points. So far, I don't see anyone getting overly excited about this deal, but it shows they're having to give away incentives to get the points sold. People aren't just lining up to throw their money into the pot so that's why I see this (CBR project) as an extremely hard sell for DVC in its current model.

That's why I am still sticking with my feeling that these are going to be suites to replace the rooms there and like someone said, perhaps this is just the start of this resort going vertical

Please tell me that's a joke...

 

[Madonna3]

Please tell me that's a joke...

Which part?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Which part?

The promotion

 

[Madonna3]

The promotion

Nope. Trying to find the link, but I get blocked from a lot of stuff on my work network.

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/special-offers/

 

[DanBoris]

Been reading along with great amusement and thought I'd throw out a couple questions/comments. First wasn't the land between CBR and HS part of the wetland swap awhile ago? If it was then I've got to assume it's meant for development. I also don't think management is going to devote a large capital expenditure for infrastructure just for one property (excluding AoA and PoP since there is no points to sell there) so I don't think there will be any CBR direct access, thus not DVC. My guess is that CBR has just about reached its' end of life and the new development will replace old moderate hotel rooms with new moderate hotel rooms. The new rooms will be built with an eye to be operated with more efficiency and occupancy and being new with a view of fireworks will justify a better rack rate. All of this providing a better margin on rooms that are proven to sell and needed to be replaced anyway. I think at one point they may have been looking at DVC here but went with plan b when it was determined that direct access wasn't feasible.

As far as the wetland between CBR and HS this is where I would see DVC going, not just one but maybe as many as 3 resorts (over time). The reason I say this is by having 3 resorts it would create a critical mass of development that would justify spending capital on new transportation infrastructure (what ever it may be). With the proximity to HS by the time they come online they should easily garner a $200+ per point rate and maintaining deluxe status.

Just my thoughts.

Yes, that land was recently released from the conservation easement.

 

[DanBoris]

There was absolutely never any intention of connecting Caribbean with Epcot...none.

This is the first time anyone has ever suggested it.
.

Definitely not the first time it has been suggested.

As to intentions, it depends who you want to believe, but we have been down that road before so I am not going there again.

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/downtown-disney-rumor.860108/page-13#post-5331412

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Nope. Trying to find the link, but I get blocked from a lot of stuff on my work network.

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/special-offers/

Ugh...I block all dvc emails and have called repeatedly to ask they not mail me anymore sorry attempts on glossy dead trees to get me to buy aulani...

I don't find any value in point costs as is...which when you go from $115 to $175 in about 5 years that's what happens.

But it does go to what they think and what the consumer bubble is allowing them to get away with...

They used to sell for $50 a point, give you deferrred points and throw no expiration hoppers at you like they were free scoops...

Times surely have changed. But $25,650 of cold hard cash and they kick back a week in a studio at the paddock?

There's no financial cost to them for that...it's giving out unused inventory. They gave me $15 a point off plus more discounts after I had to "haggle" for about 6 minutes. Again, times have changed...but wow.

And it goes to show just how "off" I think many opinions are about this Caribbean thing...

I think they'll try anything...and consumer stupidly - there's no better word - is the gas fueling the engine.

 

[skier_pete]

I am going with #2 in general. The current offer is if I buy 150 points at $171/pp, then I can get a week FREE at SSR!!

So I buy 150 POLY points and I can stay at SSR for FREE!! ***?!

Ooooo. 100 one time use points. So far, I don't see anyone getting overly excited about this deal, but it shows they're having to give away incentives to get the points sold. People aren't just lining up to throw their money into the pot so that's why I see this (CBR project) as an extremely hard sell for DVC in its current model.

That's why I am still sticking with my feeling that these are going to be suites to replace the rooms there and like someone said, perhaps this is just the start of this resort going vertical

But sales are brisk. Check out this article.

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/3637-direct-sales-wrap-up-for-december-2016

Sales for the 4th quarter of 2016 were up 29% from the 4th quarter of 2017. Poly is now 58% sold in about 27 months time. Expected to be sold out by 1st quarter 2018. (This may slow down when Copper Creek comes up for sale - but either way they are talking 3-4 years to sell 4 million points. This is probably slightly below initial expectations, but overall very robust and sales are not a problem.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I in no way see them making a new lower cost DVC category.

Edit: Notice what a disaster Aulani is...they are selling 1/4 the points at Aulani each month they do at the Poly. That resort is going to be selling forever.

 

[Madonna3]

Definitely not the first time it has been suggested.

As to intentions, it depends who you want to believe, but we have been down that road before so I am not going there again.

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/downtown-disney-rumor.860108/page-13#post-5331412

That's a very interesting comment that seems somewhat random to the topic. Where is the poster getting that information from? Any idea? It would be awesome to read the source of that rumor or look at plans that may have hinted at it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Definitely not the first time it has been suggested.

As to intentions, it depends who you want to believe, but we have been down that road before so I am not going there again.

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/downtown-disney-rumor.860108/page-13#post-5331412

I'm speaking of at Caribbean/team disney Orlando...

Not "my sources say Disney's night kingdom is a "go"

You know the trap of believing what you hope for in the "rumor" mills.

I'm telling you...a waterway to Caribbean isn't "untapped potential"

You know they hate infrastructure expenses these days...the management team that might have looked at this would be long gone anyway.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

But sales are brisk. Check out this article.

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/3637-direct-sales-wrap-up-for-december-2016

Sales for the 4th quarter of 2016 were up 29% from the 4th quarter of 2017. Poly is now 58% sold in about 27 months time. Expected to be sold out by 1st quarter 2018. (This may slow down when Copper Creek comes up for sale - but either way they are talking 3-4 years to sell 4 million points. This is probably slightly below initial expectations, but overall very robust and sales are not a problem.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I in no way see them making a new lower cost DVC category.

Edit: Notice what a disaster Aulani is...they are selling 1/4 the points at Aulani each month they do at the Poly. That resort is going to be selling forever.

I think the more accurate comparison would be how much and how long it took to sell things during the bubble...not the most recent couple of years.

58% at 27 months for what is perhaps the most beloved hotel ever built is not nearly that impressive.

It's the price point that's the problem. So the Carousel just swung around again.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

That's a very interesting comment that seems somewhat random to the topic. Where is the poster getting that information from? Any idea? It would be awesome to read the source of that rumor or look at plans that may have hinted at it.

Unsubstantiated "insider" rumors from unamed sources...

Which is why I have a saying for this...TOTS!!!

 

[rteetz]

That's a very interesting comment that seems somewhat random to the topic. Where is the poster getting that information from? Any idea? It would be awesome to read the source of that rumor or look at plans that may have hinted at it.

Lee is a very credible source when it comes to Disney rumors.

 

[rteetz]

Unsubstantiated "insider" rumors from unamed sources...

Which is why I have a saying for this...TOTS!!!

Well you are on the Rumors and News board my friend.