Old Key West Helps Direct Sales Rise Slightly in April 2024

[DonkeyHoTay]

Can you explain how that works with the deposit/wait til end of month? Is the grace period more than 10 days in some scenarios?

Placing a refundable deposit with the guide creates the contracts, which you don't have to sign, and "holds" the deal in place for a period of time (negotiable). In this case, the current promotions will expire on June 24th, and shortly thereafter DVD will release new promotions, or extend same promotions, or eliminate promotions. At that time, I have the option of signing the deal I started with (before expiration of my option) or embracing the new deal instead. Basically, I paid for a fully-refundable option with an expiration date. I may actually want 500 points at CFW and I can still amend the deal with current promotions (or new promotions, obviously) before my option expires.

 

[BrianLo]

I think there are two reasons for this. One it is good to have a fallback option as a worst case scenario if life changes force one to sell and RIV doesnt have as much of a market as others. I think the second is there are plenty of people who like to move in and out of contracts while maintaining disney membership. The restrictions again I think make this a little harder to do.

Completely, it just sort of needs to actually be an apples to apples. Direct usually is not a good short term deal (with maybe some strange recent exceptions in the OKW-E deal or VGF firesale).

All things being equal if we are talking about medium term ownership of a resale contract v resale contract - it’s hard to say where 2042’s are in 7-10 years. If we are talking long term ownership… well it’s pretty silly to be worried about RIV resale value, that’s the only thing I’m sure about, it will be worth way more.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m not sure if this was directed at me, but I’m supportive on 2042 contracts for people who assume the value is $20 or less in 2040– low dues and low point charts make some of them very compelling. I would be equally supportive of someone buying RIV or VDH if the numbers work for them on the assumption the value is $20 or less in 2040– I think they will probably be worth more than that, but given that Disney keeps devaluing resale, I worry when people thing a RIV contract will hold its value you like the original resorts (or frankly, even a VGF/PVB contract once the majority of new properties are restricted).

Not directed at you at all! Just in response to that poster. Basically if you can justify holding a contract for a longer timeframe and it expires in 17 years, this specific factor should really not be important for RIV.

All else being equal. Not talking about the points charts or the resort quality etc etc.

More that people get hyper fixated on RIV resale theories and poo poo that 2042’s are heading towards zero in hopefully most of our lifetimes. Which doesn’t mean I’m against 2042, just for some reason it gets way less consideration.

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, you shouldn’t need to justify future resale prices at RIV as much as this board seems to focus on it. It flies counter to how supportive the forum is on the 2042 resorts.

I think I’ve read the median for ownership is 8-10 years so maybe the conversation will revert by end of decade?

From what I have read, they median ownership of 8 to 10 years applies to only those who actually sell…it’s not based on all contracts owned.

For example, say 5% of DVC owners sell every year, those 5% might own on average own that short.

But, 95% of the contracts conintie to be held longer.

 

[Brian Noble]

At what point is dvc just another timeshare?

When OKW opened.

I think I’ve read the median for ownership is 8-10 years

I think the stat you are quoting is only for contracts sold in the private market, and only a sample of those. If it’s the same data point I’m thinking of it did not attempt to incorporate developer purchases that were never resold.

Er, what @Sandisw said.

 

[CastAStone]

A study that I *think* DVC News did (might be misremembering) about 10 years ago found that after ~20 years, less than a quarter of OKW points had turned over.

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Placing a refundable deposit with the guide creates the contracts, which you don't have to sign, and "holds" the deal in place for a period of time (negotiable). In this case, the current promotions will expire on June 24th, and shortly thereafter DVD will release new promotions, or extend same promotions, or eliminate promotions. At that time, I have the option of signing the deal I started with (before expiration of my option) or embracing the new deal instead. Basically, I paid for a fully-refundable option with an expiration date. I may actually want 500 points at CFW and I can still amend the deal with current promotions (or new promotions, obviously) before my option expires.

Oh thanks! I didn't realize this was an option. We were planning to do the same but thought we had to time the ball to start rolling just a couple days before the incentives expire, but you're saying the (10 day grace) clock only starts ticking down after everything is signed and a "done deal", no?

 

[BrianLo]

From what I have read, they median ownership of 8 to 10 years applies to only those who actually sell…it’s not based on all contracts owned.

For example, say 5% of DVC owners sell every year, those 5% might own on average own that short.

But, 95% of the contracts conintie to be held longer.

I think the stat you are quoting is only for contracts sold in the private market, and only a sample of those. If it’s the same data point I’m thinking of it did not attempt to incorporate developer purchases that were never resold.

A study that I *think* DVC News did (might be misremembering) about 10 years ago found that after ~20 years, less than a quarter of OKW points had turned over.

Thanks everyone! It's funny then how much weight is placed on resale value ultimately "in decision making", but how little the market actually values length of contract. Which we can clearly see in OKW/OKW-E. It's gotten a little better, but when the board sponsor started breaking them out 2 years ago, there was a 15% premium for OKW-E and yet the contracts were 75% longer.

It suggests to me that 2042's can continue to refuse to bank in length of contracts until almost the last second. i.e. the closer to expiration the worse those contracts bake in residual years before they have to rapidly shed value annually. Perhaps they drop 30% of their value in the next 8 years and the remaining 70% in the back half.

I have no idea where that "cliff" will be, but it seems like there is a cliff.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Oh thanks! I didn't realize this was an option. We were planning to do the same but thought we had to time the ball to start rolling just a couple days before the incentives expire, but you're saying the (10 day grace) clock only starts ticking down after everything is signed and a "done deal", no?

I think you are referring to the rescission period (https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2011/721.06), which is not what I'm talking about. I am referring to the option to enter into a "deal" via an option I establish with a refundable deposit.

Edit - maybe we are on the same page? The option can be negotiated so that you can start the ball some period of time before incentives expire, and then the option exists thereafter so you have the choice of completing the deal you had or enter into a new deal with new incentives (presumably because they are improved to your benefit). Then, after you have decided which deal to take and signed all documents, the rescission period begins.

 

[SugarSweetLee]

I think you are referring to the rescission period (https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2011/721.06), which is not what I'm talking about. I am referring to the option to enter into a "deal" via an option I establish with a refundable deposit.

Cool, thanks. I'll have to ask my guide if we can go ahead and start the same process.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Cool, thanks. I'll have to ask my guide if we can go ahead and start the same process.

just edited my reply... hope it helps

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Well.... I am coming around to the idea of buying some direct CFW. It goes against my "exit strategy" mentality, because I have the same doubts about what the resale market looks like for restricted CFW contracts as I do for RIV or VDH. But.... I'm among those people that really want to stay at CFW on an annual basis, especially during the holidays and a few other random weekends here and there. So, the "buy where you want to stay" mantra is ringing true for me and CFW specifically. I also like BCV but it seems I can get some random reservations here and there across all available room types at that resort, and that's good enough for my use case. I placed a deposit on 350 more points at CFW and will wait to see what happens with incentives at the end of the month.

Buying CFW is a really bad idea financially. I’m sorry, it just is, those dues are insane. Given how poorly it is selling and how much is declared (and the fact that there’s only one room type) it’s also likely that 7 month availability will be quite good. Buy direct literally anywhere else if you must buy direct, or better yet, pay cash to rent it. This thing is going to be a total dog on the resale market. The dues of Vero Beach except restricted to **only** one resort? Nobody is going to want it. Nobody is buying it direct unrestricted, you think people are going to buy it resale restricted? People are going to end up turning to timeshare exit scams to get rid of it in 15-20 years. CFW looks like Westgate to me, not like DVC.

Edit: And God help the CFW owners if Orlando experiences a direct hit from a hurricane and a massive special assessment needs to be levied to repair the glorified trailers.

 

[CastAStone]

Well.... I am coming around to the idea of buying some direct CFW. It goes against my "exit strategy" mentality, because I have the same doubts about what the resale market looks like for restricted CFW contracts as I do for RIV or VDH. But.... I'm among those people that really want to stay at CFW on an annual basis, especially during the holidays and a few other random weekends here and there. So, the "buy where you want to stay" mantra is ringing true for me and CFW specifically. I also like BCV but it seems I can get some random reservations here and there across all available room types at that resort, and that's good enough for my use case. I placed a deposit on 350 more points at CFW and will wait to see what happens with incentives at the end of the month.

I think it will be a decade or more before there’s even the slightest competition for rooms at CFW.

But if you’re buying because you’re afraid of the holidays selling out, get a fixed week or two for sure.

 

[jason423]

Completely, it just sort of needs to actually be an apples to apples. Direct usually is not a good short term deal (with maybe some strange recent exceptions in the OKW-E deal or VGF firesale).

All things being equal if we are talking about medium term ownership of a resale contract v resale contract - it’s hard to say where 2042’s are in 7-10 years. If we are talking long term ownership… well it’s pretty silly to be worried about RIV resale value, that’s the only thing I’m sure about, it will be worth way more.

I agree with that. For me personally I wouldn't be happy with Riviera as a resale purchase because of the booking restrictions but I wouldn't care much about the resale value. That said if someone is happy with staying at RIV every trip its a great bargain when purchased resale.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Buying CFW is a really bad idea financially. I’m sorry, it just is, those dues are insane. Given how poorly it is selling and how much is declared (and the fact that there’s only one room type) it’s also likely that 7 month availability will be quite good. Buy direct literally anywhere else if you must buy direct, or better yet, pay cash to rent it. This thing is going to be a total dog on the resale market. The dues of Vero Beach except restricted to **only** one resort? Nobody is going to want it. Nobody is buying it direct unrestricted, you think people are going to buy it resale restricted? People are going to end up turning to timeshare exit scams to get rid of it in 15-20 years. CFW looks like Westgate to me, not like DVC.

Edit: And God help the CFW owners if Orlando experiences a direct hit from a hurricane and a massive special assessment needs to be levied to repair the glorified trailers.

Ironically, I agree with most of this! But the 7 month availability does not look good…not today, and with a point chart that low it may not ever look good. That’s where I am today - I have more than enough Direct points and I can’t get a CFW cabin for any weekend in the next 7 months. This is driving it for me - I really want to stay here and I can’t get it at 7 months. Cash costs more than the points at $177 pp net of MB.

I think it will be a decade or more before there’s even the slightest competition for rooms at CFW.

Not following you? Reservations are completely booked for these cabins now… you think that will change?

But if you’re buying because you’re afraid of the holidays selling out, get a fixed week or two for sure.

Actually that is the plan - week 50 guaranteed week, plus some extra points for scattered stays during the year… 350 points should do it.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Not following you? Reservations are completely booked for these cabins now… you think that will change?

I think historically new resorts are hot commodities for a while, maybe a year or two, until they settle into their “normal” booking patterns and availability. CFW might always be popular at 7mos, especially during the Halloween/Christmas season but it also might not be. This first year isn’t the year to assume future availability usually.

I’ve been checking availability at CFW randomly since booking ability started and it only fully booked up in the last week or so. Prior to that only July and September booked very quickly. The rest of the months were decently open and filled relatively slowly. For only having 30 something cabins to work with (until very recently, that is) that’s not bad odds for 7mo window, especially as more gets declared.

 

[CastAStone]

Reservations are completely booked for these cabins now… you think that will change?

Yes. They’re brand new! I don’t think this is representative of anything.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Yes. They’re brand new! I don’t think this is representative of anything.

Yeah, if you are dead set on buying CFW I would at least wait a little bit until things have calmed down to see where they settle. I strongly suspect that in about a year incentives will be ridiculous given sales so far. In a year or two we will also have a better of idea of what 7 month availability looks like.

 

[Coronator]

Ironically, I agree with most of this! But the 7 month availability does not look good…not today, and with a point chart that low it may not ever look good. That’s where I am today - I have more than enough Direct points and I can’t get a CFW cabin for any weekend in the next 7 months. This is driving it for me - I really want to stay here and I can’t get it at 7 months. Cash costs more than the points at $177 pp net of MB.



Not following you? Reservations are completely booked for these cabins now… you think that will change?



Actually that is the plan - week 50 guaranteed week, plus some extra points for scattered stays during the year… 350 points should do it.

I too was actually surprised at the lack of availability when I was looking at it the other day. I just don’t quite understand what would draw someone to want to stay there, regardless of dues. The lack of amenities is killer.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

I too was actually surprised at the lack of availability when I was looking at it the other day. I just don’t quite understand what would draw someone to want to stay there, regardless of dues. The lack of amenities is killer.

I will guess it is the relatively low point costs for 6 person accommodations and the appeal of stretching points by booking those cabins even as a backup option. I also think there are people (like me) that really like that resort and want to stay there, especially during the holidays. The dog option is another element, also a major positive for me. I agree it's a fairly specific use case, as evidenced by new direct CFW contracts not flying off the shelves.

Great advice in this thread from @AnnaKristoff2013 and @CastAStone - I sincerely hope the excitement factor wanes so I can use any of my other direct points to make reservations at CFW and not have to buy more points there. At a minimum, I will be waiting to see if the incentives change in the next cycle at the end of this month before making any decisions on buying more direct CFW points right now.

In the meantime, I will emphasize that a guaranteed week in December at CFW holds a lot of appeal (to me specifically) and after having booked cash reservations at Fort Wilderness cabins for the last 15 years consistently, I like the idea of owning a piece of it and don't care if it's worth zero in the resale market. That's 180 degrees from how I felt about the other 2400 direct OKW-E points I bought last month, and 180 degrees from what I think about RIV/VDH direct.