Old Key West Helps Direct Sales Rise Slightly in April 2024

[tidefan]

I will guess it is the relatively low point costs for 6 person accommodations and the appeal of stretching points by booking those cabins even as a backup option. I also think there are people (like me) that really like that resort and want to stay there, especially during the holidays. The dog option is another element, also a major positive for me. I agree it's a fairly specific use case, as evidenced by new direct CFW contracts not flying off the shelves.

Great advice in this thread from @AnnaKristoff2013 and @CastAStone - I sincerely hope the excitement factor wanes so I can use any of my other direct points to make reservations at CFW and not have to buy more points there. At a minimum, I will be waiting to see if the incentives change in the next cycle at the end of this month before making any decisions on buying more direct CFW points right now.

In the meantime, I will emphasize that a guaranteed week in December at CFW holds a lot of appeal (to me specifically) and after having booked cash reservations at Fort Wilderness cabins for the last 15 years consistently, I like the idea of owning a piece of it and don't care if it's worth zero in the resale market. That's 180 degrees from how I felt about the other 2400 direct OKW-E points I bought last month, and 180 degrees from what I think about RIV/VDH direct.

I suspect that October and December will both be popular for fixed weeks at the Fort, IF some combination of the pricing/dues/restrictions lessens (not holding my breath).

As to why they are booking, one word: Dogs.

 

[Jason&Michael]

As to why they are booking, one word: Dogs.

Agreed That's actually one of the reasons we weren't interested. Sure, dogs are only allowed in certain cabins - but noise carries.

 

[Sandisw]

I will guess it is the relatively low point costs for 6 person accommodations and the appeal of stretching points by booking those cabins even as a backup option. I also think there are people (like me) that really like that resort and want to stay there, especially during the holidays. The dog option is another element, also a major positive for me. I agree it's a fairly specific use case, as evidenced by new direct CFW contracts not flying off the shelves.

Great advice in this thread from @AnnaKristoff2013 and @CastAStone - I sincerely hope the excitement factor wanes so I can use any of my other direct points to make reservations at CFW and not have to buy more points there. At a minimum, I will be waiting to see if the incentives change in the next cycle at the end of this month before making any decisions on buying more direct CFW points right now.

In the meantime, I will emphasize that a guaranteed week in December at CFW holds a lot of appeal (to me specifically) and after having booked cash reservations at Fort Wilderness cabins for the last 15 years consistently, I like the idea of owning a piece of it and don't care if it's worth zero in the resale market. That's 180 degrees from how I felt about the other 2400 direct OKW-E points I bought last month, and 180 degrees from what I think about RIV/VDH direct.

The only thing I will add is about the FW. While DVD can sell up to 35% of the cabins for a specific FW, it does not mean they will.

If that is something you’d really want, if you do buy, be aware they could decide not to sell too many for what you want.

 

[Jgc014]

Right now at certain time periods, you can book a non discounted stay at the new Cabins directly from Disney at a rate of about $28 per point without having to buy a full contract upfront and easier ability to cancel.

Right now I doubt they will discount these rooms as they are new and people will want to check them out. But in the future, although likely not at holiday times, I think there may be some discounting of the cabins, so booking directly with Disney for around $22 a point.

For me, it is really tough to see the value of purchasing a full contract, the annual dues, and the inflexibility that comes with DVC when you can book with Disney directly for $22 a point (understanding this will not be the case for holiday periods).

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

Agreed That's actually one of the reasons we weren't interested. Sure, dogs are only allowed in certain cabins - but noise carries.

I believe dogs are allowed in all the new cabins.

 

[CastAStone]

when you can book with Disney directly for $22 a point (understanding this will not be the case for holiday periods).

The value won’t change. Holidays are actually frequently the worst value per point for DVC, although that’s resort dependent.

And at this rate they’ll have cash availability for 20+ more years.

 

[Jgc014]

The value won’t change. Holidays are actually frequently the worst value per point for DVC, although that’s resort dependent.

And at this rate they’ll have cash availability for 20+ more years.

This is said as someone who has never tried to book a cash stay at the Cabins, so I am only guessing about discounting, but it is my understanding that during Halloween and Christmas, they don’t have any problems booking the Cabins, so I would expect discounting to be limited. However for slower times, I know historically the Cabins have offered discounts, so if the Disney cash rate is already only equivalent to $28 per point, with discounts, any DVC savings would be further eroded.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I will guess it is the relatively low point costs for 6 person accommodations and the appeal of stretching points by booking those cabins even as a backup option. I also think there are people (like me) that really like that resort and want to stay there, especially during the holidays. The dog option is another element, also a major positive for me. I agree it's a fairly specific use case, as evidenced by new direct CFW contracts not flying off the shelves.

Great advice in this thread from @AnnaKristoff2013 and @CastAStone - I sincerely hope the excitement factor wanes so I can use any of my other direct points to make reservations at CFW and not have to buy more points there. At a minimum, I will be waiting to see if the incentives change in the next cycle at the end of this month before making any decisions on buying more direct CFW points right now.

In the meantime, I will emphasize that a guaranteed week in December at CFW holds a lot of appeal (to me specifically) and after having booked cash reservations at Fort Wilderness cabins for the last 15 years consistently, I like the idea of owning a piece of it and don't care if it's worth zero in the resale market. That's 180 degrees from how I felt about the other 2400 direct OKW-E points I bought last month, and 180 degrees from what I think about RIV/VDH direct.

So I just checked and you can book a Cabin on Disney's cash booking site, right now, for $5,113.13 December 7 - 14 (I think that's week 50 this year, correct me if I'm wrong). That is not a discount rate. If you really want to stay there I think it's a much better idea to do that for the next year or two and wait to see what happens with 7 month availability long term.

 

[BrianLo]

The Cabins are so interesting. Because I think it’s pretty much a ‘disaster’ for the developer only. But they’ve done nothing to address it. It’s actually quite magnanimous to the current membership.

Disney is currently subsidizing 98%+ of the Inventory. By declaring 60 units to DVC, but the developer owning the majority of the unsold points (they’ve sold roughly the equivalent to one unit). The cabins are a reasonable use of sleep around points so this really won’t be dead inventory being dumped into the membership.

But the breakeven on the high maintenance fees and buy in to Disney prices also impacts Disney. They are also deriving poor margins. Though maybe this is just reflective of their margins on moderate resorts at the best of times.

I just think everything doesn’t add up yet. They haven’t made their final strategy clear. It’s the combination of the appropriate points chart, the high sales pricing, the over-declaration of units. It’s like they are both simultaneously signaling they don’t want to sell these at all and desperately want to sell more volume.

We’d probably see a lot more interest if they started at 199 direct pricing, but it’s confusing what their next move is. If any.

Maybe the only thing that adds up is this was a planned phase of reflections they couldn’t actually delay with the cabins being overdue for replacement.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

So I just checked and you can book a Cabin on Disney's cash booking site, right now, for $5,113.13 December 7 - 14 (I think that's week 50 this year, correct me if I'm wrong). That is not a discount rate. If you really want to stay there I think it's a much better idea to do that for the next year or two and wait to see what happens with 7 month availability long term.

Week 50 this year is checking in 12/15/24 and checking out 12/22/24 - that's 7 nights. I have that week already booked thanks to the first welcome home reservation made by member services. The unknown for me is whether I can book that week on my own exactly 7 months before it in 2025 - doesn't look like it today, but maybe in the future availability will improve.

No question I would much rather not buy new CFW points to get those reservations when I can just use by other direct points to do so at 7 months.... I wish the crystal ball would tell me if time is on my side with either 7 month CFW availability or better incentives on direct CFW points next year or both.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

The only thing I will add is about the FW. While DVD can sell up to 35% of the cabins for a specific FW, it does not mean they will.

If that is something you’d really want, if you do buy, be aware they could decide not to sell too many for what you want.

I am missing your point - if I buy a guaranteed fixed week, what risk do I have in not getting that in the future regardless of what other future selling decisions are made? In other words, a guaranteed fixed week is guaranteed, so what is the downside risk you are referring to?

 

[Sandisw]

I am missing your point - if I buy a guaranteed fixed week, what risk do I have in not getting that in the future regardless of what other future selling decisions are made? In other words, a guaranteed fixed week is guaranteed, so what is the downside risk you are referring to?

I read your post as potentially waiting a few years to see how it all plays out for 7 month availability before buying.

If you are buying soon, then my point makes no sense! Lol

If just that if you wait to buy, DVD might tell you there are not any more FW left for them to sell for the week you want. They get to determine how many for each week they want to sell, up to a max of 35%…

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

I think historically new resorts are hot commodities for a while, maybe a year or two, until they settle into their “normal” booking patterns and availability. CFW might always be popular at 7mos, especially during the Halloween/Christmas season but it also might not be. This first year isn’t the year to assume future availability usually.

I’ve been checking availability at CFW randomly since booking ability started and it only fully booked up in the last week or so. Prior to that only July and September booked very quickly. The rest of the months were decently open and filled relatively slowly. For only having 30 something cabins to work with (until very recently, that is) that’s not bad odds for 7mo window, especially as more gets declared.

Yeah, if you are dead set on buying CFW I would at least wait a little bit until things have calmed down to see where they settle. I strongly suspect that in about a year incentives will be ridiculous given sales so far. In a year or two we will also have a better of idea of what 7 month availability looks like.

What a difference 24 hours can make! Last night I booked a whole week in November and there was TONS of availability starting in July! I don’t know what happened exactly (more cabin inventory declared? Canceled reservations?), but I got everything I wanted in the 7 month window. Two days ago there were zero nights available! Seems clear you all were right - the right approach is wait and see, and there is zero urgency to own points at CFW when reservations can suddenly appear so dramatically.

I read your post as potentially waiting a few years to see how it all plays out for 7 month availability before buying.

If you are buying soon, then my point makes no sense! Lol

If just that if you wait to buy, DVD might tell you there are not any more FW left for them to sell for the week you want. They get to determine how many for each week they want to sell, up to a max of 35%…

LOL, we are on the same page!

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

What a difference 24 hours can make! Last night I booked a whole week in November and there was TONS of availability starting in July! I don’t know what happened exactly (more cabin inventory declared? Canceled reservations?), but I got everything I wanted in the 7 month window. Two days ago there were zero nights available! Seems clear you all were right - the right approach is wait and see, and there is zero urgency to own points at CFW when reservations can suddenly appear so dramatically.



LOL, we are on the same page!

Friends don’t let friends purchase restricted resorts with $12.15 maintenance fees!

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Friends don’t let friends purchase restricted resorts with $12.15 maintenance fees!

I am grateful to have friends like you and the rest of the DIS Board!!!!!

Now that my CFW reservation anxiety has abated, I can get back to my favorite past time: stalking BCV resale contracts on the market...

 

[tidefan]

What a difference 24 hours can make! Last night I booked a whole week in November and there was TONS of availability starting in July! I don’t know what happened exactly (more cabin inventory declared? Canceled reservations?), but I got everything I wanted in the 7 month window. Two days ago there were zero nights available! Seems clear you all were right - the right approach is wait and see, and there is zero urgency to own points at CFW when reservations can suddenly appear so dramatically.



LOL, we are on the same page!

And now.. they are gone... Seems like everyone grabbed them up!

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

And now.. they are gone... Seems like everyone grabbed them up!

Agreed! Maybe that volatility is the clearest indication that this is the early stage and the normal cycle of 7 month availability is not yet known.... but I can wait!

 

[CastAStone]

Booking a CFW cabin for a whole year would take 7,843 points (or 7,819 in 2025). They sold 6,726 points in April.

They didn't even sell one cabin in April.

Total they've sold 26,211 points, just over 3 cabins (23,529pts) since sales started. Just ~360 more to go.

I just counted up May sales and I’m getting 3,940 points

 

[CastAStone]

I just counted up May sales and I’m getting 3,940 points

And just 32 contracts.

476 274 OKW contracts (476 included resale). I’m not counting all that.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I just counted up May sales and I’m getting 3,940 points

Crikey.