Old Key West Helps Direct Sales Rise Slightly in April 2024

I don’t think those rooms will be easy to rent or easy to sell. If they wind up having to rent out several hundred villas for cash every night at a 55 year old resort with the only rooms on property that still have couch beds, only one poorly located restaurant and bus only transportation I think that’s going to be a serious challenge.

But, they could also do a fire sale then as well to offer them to owners…some might want to buy thr 15 year contract for the right price….lots of options but I would be surprised to see the price go above the extended contracts on the resale market…which is where I originally was going…that I don’t see DVD doing that much with RoFR with them.
 
I am highly annoyed that this all true. I am one of those that was really wanting to book CFW regularly and it sure looks like that won’t be easy at 7 months. The point chart is absurdly low, which guarantees a lot of interest in cabins that sleep 6.

Anyone have a silver lining on availability at CFW? Maybe more inventory declared is on the way? Maybe there is a track record with other new resorts wherein the early excitement subsides and booking options open up?
Same, if they weren't restricted and the dues were more reasonable, we would have added on there.
 
Phew - that’s a hot take! “Single best value in DVC” is an interesting opinion… I think it certainly depends on what one wants out of DVC. But for a small secondary contract, I think it’s definitely a great value.
I second that, I am currently in a buying position. I am looking to get another 500 points in the next 18 months, I will not consider RIV even remotely. No way, no how with restrictions. BCV and BWV way better deals. Contract Restrictions acceptance mean you are patient or very happy with the resort. I am definitely headed to RIV for a visit in August, my first time at RIV. It would need to be the best hotel I have ever seen to consider resale buy.
 
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I think that CFW is going to be an interesting one. We have 2 stays booked there, and when I was looking at getting a NYE reservation there, I noticed that they are almost all booked up the entire year.

I think that they way it is set up, with the trust and ambiguity as it is that they can play shenanigans with the point charts, the high dues, and the restrictions, it is a terrible value to buy, but...

I think that CFW is going to be extremely popular at 7 months for most of the membership.
I agree, I would happily use my points there going forward. I had a nice beginning to cash vacation in 2019 that started in a cabin. IMHO the dues are high because they are paying excise tax not property tax. Excise tax diminishes over time the exact opposite of property tax.
 

Again I think we are an outlier to this conversation with regard to RIV purchase and restrictions. We own two contracts, one Poly Resale and a RIV direct. We bought both based on where we want to stay for the future but resale value didn’t really factor in for us. We have no intention to sell, and when we pass it down to our kids, it should be worth something. Even if they sell to get out of dues we will still have decades of points trips we have taken without resale value coming into the equation.

I guess we bought more for the location and the here and now, and don’t really plan to have resale value hanging over our head. We are approaching 40 so we still plan to have more than a decade or two of use before we start worrying about signing over deeds.
 
Riv direct is a totally different animal. In that case I envy you a bit even resort sight unseen. I just got lost for a minute in my own construct. That patient qualifier I put in was regarding the value that a Riv contract might have 2035-2040+. It may have the largest appreciation in those years of any resort seen prior
 
Here's a thought...when dvc first started, it was novel and a creative way to keep people invested in disney. Now with all the building going on - at some point supply will pass demand. Yes many like to go to disney, but how many want to invest years into disney. If that were the case the resorts would be full year round. The cabins - I like the pet friendly option- but it's a niche group. RiV - suffers from restrictions. Poly will probably sell well because it's the Poly. But if they build more resorts??? At what point is dvc just another timeshare? Sorry to be a Debbie downer, but the cost has to justify the product. I love my dvc but we would not have purchased today. Tierd tickets, park reservations, pay for fast pass. The disney of today would have been one and done.
 
Here's a thought...when dvc first started, it was novel and a creative way to keep people invested in disney. Now with all the building going on - at some point supply will pass demand. Yes many like to go to disney, but how many want to invest years into disney. If that were the case the resorts would be full year round. The cabins - I like the pet friendly option- but it's a niche group. RiV - suffers from restrictions. Poly will probably sell well because it's the Poly. But if they build more resorts??? At what point is dvc just another timeshare? Sorry to be a Debbie downer, but the cost has to justify the product. I love my dvc but we would not have purchased today. Tierd tickets, park reservations, pay for fast pass. The disney of today would have been one and done.
I am not quite this pessimistic on DVC (I purchased several hundred points in the past 18 months)— but I think that it is at least a yellow flag if Disney keeps building giant new towers (or sprawling hotel resorts) without investing in additional park and especially ride capacity…which is why I’m generally against buying anything with the expectation it will have significant resale value. I personally would be happy to take a huge hit to resale prices if it meant that parks were half as crowded…unfortunately, over the past 2 years, we’ve seen a big slide without a real reduction in crowds in the parks.

We love EPCOT and would consider RIV resale if we still are certain we want to do annual trips to EPCOT at least every other year as our BCV points approach expiration—but if I had to buy resale today, I would much rather buy BLT or CCV at approximately the same price.
 
Riv direct is a totally different animal. In that case I envy you a bit even resort sight unseen. I just got lost for a minute in my own construct. That patient qualifier I put in was regarding the value that a Riv contract might have 2035-2040+. It may have the largest appreciation in those years of any resort seen prior
Unless they decide to build the Yacht Club tower at crescent lake in the meantime. A lot can happen in 15 years.

Now with all the building going on - at some point supply will pass demand. Yes many like to go to disney, but how many want to invest years into disney. If that were the case the resorts would be full year round
They'd never be full year round - not everybody is as flexible with their vacation time. But I would not worry too much about building activity. There is a lot more coast to build other timeshares than Disney could ever build. And it looks like we might be seeing some major park investment in the not so distant future.
 
Same, if they weren't restricted and the dues were more reasonable, we would have added on there.

Well.... I am coming around to the idea of buying some direct CFW. It goes against my "exit strategy" mentality, because I have the same doubts about what the resale market looks like for restricted CFW contracts as I do for RIV or VDH. But.... I'm among those people that really want to stay at CFW on an annual basis, especially during the holidays and a few other random weekends here and there. So, the "buy where you want to stay" mantra is ringing true for me and CFW specifically. I also like BCV but it seems I can get some random reservations here and there across all available room types at that resort, and that's good enough for my use case. I placed a deposit on 350 more points at CFW and will wait to see what happens with incentives at the end of the month.
 
Well.... I am coming around to the idea of buying some direct CFW. It goes against my "exit strategy" mentality, because I have the same doubts about what the resale market looks like for restricted CFW contracts as I do for RIV or VDH. But.... I'm among those people that really want to stay at CFW on an annual basis, especially during the holidays and a few other random weekends here and there. So, the "buy where you want to stay" mantra is ringing true for me and CFW specifically. I also like BCV but it seems I can get some random reservations here and there across all available room types at that resort, and that's good enough for my use case. I placed a deposit on 350 more points at CFW and will wait to see what happens with incentives at the end of the month.
Yowza - 350 points will probably put you in the top 5 point holders for that resort!

Hope it works out!
 
Well.... I am coming around to the idea of buying some direct CFW. It goes against my "exit strategy" mentality, because I have the same doubts about what the resale market looks like for restricted CFW contracts as I do for RIV or VDH. But.... I'm among those people that really want to stay at CFW on an annual basis, especially during the holidays and a few other random weekends here and there. So, the "buy where you want to stay" mantra is ringing true for me and CFW specifically. I also like BCV but it seems I can get some random reservations here and there across all available room types at that resort, and that's good enough for my use case. I placed a deposit on 350 more points at CFW and will wait to see what happens with incentives at the end of the month.
Can you explain how that works with the deposit/wait til end of month? Is the grace period more than 10 days in some scenarios?
 
Well.... I am coming around to the idea of buying some direct CFW. It goes against my "exit strategy" mentality, because I have the same doubts about what the resale market looks like for restricted CFW contracts as I do for RIV or VDH. But.... I'm among those people that really want to stay at CFW on an annual basis, especially during the holidays and a few other random weekends here and there. So, the "buy where you want to stay" mantra is ringing true for me and CFW specifically. I also like BCV but it seems I can get some random reservations here and there across all available room types at that resort, and that's good enough for my use case. I placed a deposit on 350 more points at CFW and will wait to see what happens with incentives at the end of the month.
Funny enough, the restrictions at CFW are actually having the opposite effect with us of what DVD probably intends. For us, it's pushing us to wait until some of these come on resale. Because we'd only use these there, it makes no sense to pay full fare up front when I can probably get resale here MUCH cheaper down the line.
 
Again I think we are an outlier to this conversation with regard to RIV purchase and restrictions. We own two contracts, one Poly Resale and a RIV direct. We bought both based on where we want to stay for the future but resale value didn’t really factor in for us. We have no intention to sell, and when we pass it down to our kids, it should be worth something. Even if they sell to get out of dues we will still have decades of points trips we have taken without resale value coming into the equation.

Honestly, you shouldn’t need to justify future resale prices at RIV as much as this board seems to focus on it. It flies counter to how supportive the forum is on the 2042 resorts.

I think I’ve read the median for ownership is 8-10 years so maybe the conversation will revert by end of decade?
 
We love EPCOT and would consider RIV resale if we still are certain we want to do annual trips to EPCOT at least every other year as our BCV points approach expiration—but if I had to buy resale today, I would much rather buy BLT or CCV at approximately the same price.


Agreed. RIV resale isn’t ‘bad’, but it’s not in my opinion the best value in the portfolio yet. Perhaps if it drops another 20% relative to the market.

CCV, BLT, or SSR are the current long-term value purchases. SSR likely will always reign supreme if we take home resort priority out of the equation and just want a means to stay on property on a low points chart with an exceptionally cheap buy in for remaining years.
 
Agreed. RIV resale isn’t ‘bad’, but it’s not in my opinion the best value in the portfolio yet. Perhaps if it drops another 20% relative to the market.

CCV, BLT, or SSR are the current long-term value purchases. SSR likely will always reign supreme if we take home resort priority out of the equation and just want a means to stay on property on a low points chart with an exceptionally cheap buy in for remaining years.
I would also add that if you have not had a chance to check out the SSR rooms since the renovation, they have been seriously upgraded, to the point where I would put them against any room on property.
 
I would also add that if you have not had a chance to check out the SSR rooms since the renovation, they have been seriously upgraded, to the point where I would put them against any room on property.

No shade on SSR. I own there! Staying in December.
 
Honestly, you shouldn’t need to justify future resale prices at RIV as much as this board seems to focus on it. It flies counter to how supportive the forum is on the 2042 resorts.

I think I’ve read the median for ownership is 8-10 years so maybe the conversation will revert by end of decade?
I think there are two reasons for this. One it is good to have a fallback option as a worst case scenario if life changes force one to sell and RIV doesnt have as much of a market as others. I think the second is there are plenty of people who like to move in and out of contracts while maintaining disney membership. The restrictions again I think make this a little harder to do.
 
Funny enough, the restrictions at CFW are actually having the opposite effect with us of what DVD probably intends. For us, it's pushing us to wait until some of these come on resale. Because we'd only use these there, it makes no sense to pay full fare up front when I can probably get resale here MUCH cheaper down the line.

That strategy makes perfect sense to me - my only intended use for these CFW contracts is for use at CFW alone so the resale restrictions would be irrelevant in my use case. But... since my long term planning is to deed these contracts to my heirs, I prefer not to force them into my personal use case for resale CFW points.
 
Honestly, you shouldn’t need to justify future resale prices at RIV as much as this board seems to focus on it. It flies counter to how supportive the forum is on the 2042 resorts.

I think I’ve read the median for ownership is 8-10 years so maybe the conversation will revert by end of decade?
I’m not sure if this was directed at me, but I’m supportive on 2042 contracts for people who assume the value is $20 or less in 2040– low dues and low point charts make some of them very compelling. I would be equally supportive of someone buying RIV or VDH if the numbers work for them on the assumption the value is $20 or less in 2040– I think they will probably be worth more than that, but given that Disney keeps devaluing resale, I worry when people thing a RIV contract will hold its value you like the original resorts (or frankly, even a VGF/PVB contract once the majority of new properties are restricted).
 



















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