Old Key West Helps Direct Sales Rise Slightly in April 2024

[intamin]

I think Riviera is beautiful! Really looking forward to staying there and trying out that gondola thing.

But... I can't own any contracts there. My brain cannot get over the resale restrictions. Obviously 72K point owners have a different view on ownership. Have to wonder if I'm in the minority on this resale restrictions thing....

I don't think you're in the minority on here anyways. Maybe in the general public yes because I assume quite a few are unaware of resale restrictions.

For us though, we're willing to accept the resale restrictions. I just feel like if I were going to pay that much in dues, we're going to own where we want to stay, especially for Riviera where the standard view represents a 20% discount compared to preferred based on point charts. If the resale value really tanks, we'll probably add more to bump us into grand villas more frequently. It's not like the resale product is the same as owning direct Riviera. People paid nearly 30 dollars more for direct AKV compared to resale AKV last year and called it a good deal. For Riviera, the products are even more dissimilar being limited to one resort. If I were buying 1400 points like you (assuming you bought the same amount of RIV) though I'd hesitate to buy that much Riviera because if you were to get hit with resale restrictions you'd be hit 4x as hard as I am with my measly 300+ points which IMO is a more normal amount for people to own at one resort.

We have resale contracts as well which are far more likely to be sold off first if it became truly necessary and wouldn't take as much of a loss if those were sold, but owning somewhere you don't really care for just to avoid a loss which may never be realized? I'm willing to take that gamble if it means owning where I want my vacations to be for the next 46 years.

 

[CastAStone]

Disney is now telling people they have no OKW points left at all, per multiple people on Facebook.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Disney is now telling people they have no OKW points left at all, per multiple people on Facebook.

Surprising but good for Disney, good for DVC members overall (price support), good for existing OKW members in particular—but not so great for those of us who want to use 7m direct SAP at VDH, CFW, and RIV.

Genuinely curious if they will keep ROFRing to sell more or if they only took a few because they had oversold.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Disney is now telling people they have no OKW points left at all, per multiple people on Facebook.

Hopefully they move in to some decent discounts on SSR direct now… they must have a fair few of those stashed. Would be straight in there if they did the same offer as OKW!

 

[Coronator]

Hopefully they move in to some decent discounts on SSR direct now… they must have a fair few of those stashed. Would be straight in there if they did the same offer as OKW!

Possible, but I feel unlikely. The aggressiveness of Disney with OKW has mostly to do with extending contracts to 2057.

There may be an SSR deal in the future, but I doubt it would be as good as a deal as this OKW deal was.

I believe Disney will continue to ROFR OKW contracts tactically.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Disney is now telling people they have no OKW points left at all, per multiple people on Facebook.

…The aggressiveness of Disney with OKW has mostly to do with extending contracts to 2057. There may be an SSR deal in the future, but I doubt it would be as good as a deal as this OKW deal was…

The OKW deal was highly unusual especially when the promotion was at its peak value in late April / early May - cheapest direct price per point in almost 20 years. If there was a lesson to be learned by DVD, it must be the old adage: It’s the price stupid!

I wonder what DVD will do with that knowledge now? Recognize that ROFRd points are a cash machine and they should/could do it again with any 2042 contracts? Claim victory after having departed the field but never do another OKW type deal again because the mission of stimulating interest in other contracts/resorts has already been accomplished?

I hear there is a wait list now for OKW extended points…

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I believe Disney has already done a few rounds of significant SSR deals (it was in the $150/160s on a cruise last year, I believe)— not sure how many SSR points they are sitting on.

As I understand it, they are specifically motivated to capture the OKW contracts that currently expire in 2042 turn them in to 2057 contracts (while making a profit!)…I don’t think Disney will expand ROFR to most of the other 2042 contracts because their resale values are close to or above a price point where they can easily move direct contracts … and I would assume they already sit on more points than they can sell. I still see a tiny chance of ROFRing BLT or CCV if they are having trouble selling PVB because people realize they can get points for 50% of direct PVB cost— I bet they could move a lot of BLT at $170-185/pt (before magical beginnings) by selectively offering it to people who are on the fence about PVB at $225– this is basically how we ended up buying AUL direct — I looked at the $275/pt price of BCV, struggled to justify it and they suggested VGF which was about $195 all in or AUL which was around $171 (neither price with MB), and I jumped on AUL, feeling like it was a great deal.

I would be surprised to see deals as good as OKW anywhere else, but we might get a few decent flash sales if there are still resorts where they are sitting on too many points.

 

[CastAStone]

I believe Disney has already done a few rounds of significant SSR deals (it was in the $150/160s on a cruise last year, I believe)— not sure how many SSR points they are sitting on

They bought SO MANY back in 2021-22. It’s hard for me to believe they don’t still have way too many points, but I haven’t dug through the contract sales to see. I could be mistaken.

But even in the $160s, it’s just at the price it was direct in 2021. This OKW sale made it possible for you to buy points for under $100; SSR has not had a post-Covid sale anything like that.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

…This OKW sale made it possible for you to buy points for under $100…

Yep… not the least bit surprised they sold out at those crazy low prices for direct points.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

They bought SO MANY back in 2021-22. It’s hard for me to believe they don’t still have way too many points, but I haven’t dug through the contract sales to see. I could be mistaken.

But even in the $160s, it’s just at the price it was direct in 2021. This OKW sale made it possible for you to buy points for under $100; SSR has not had a post-Covid sale anything like that.

I agree with you. I think SSR was a significant sale but not a screaming deal. I’m not sure Disney has any incentive (pun not intended) to give OKW $100/pt deals anywhere other than OKW for non-extended contracts. I wonder if this could lead to the absurd situation where OKW ends up at a higher resale price than OKWe.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree with you. I think SSR was a significant sale but not a screaming deal. I’m not sure Disney has any incentive (pun not intended) to give OKW $100/pt deals anywhere other than OKW for non-extended contracts. I wonder if this could lead to the absurd situation where OKW ends up at a higher resale price than OKWe.

The only thing is that the 2042 OKW contracts end in 2042 because the quit claim deed is signed at the time of sale.

Those contracts automatically revert back to Disney for free. So, not sure that DVD would want them if the price goes higher.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The only thing is that the 2042 OKW contracts end in 2042 because the quit claim deed is signed at the time of sale.

Those contracts automatically revert back to Disney for free. So, not sure that DVD would want them if the price goes higher.

I think I agree with you (though they may want to get down to a certain fraction that can expire all at once)— in any event, I don’t think they are going to ROFR anything above $85, I was thinking more that extended could drop even lower if they only ROFR direct.

 

[walt34]

I predict that the floor on RIV (a) is going to be determined by its rental proceeds value, and (b) will not go to zero or even get close.

Probably not until we are getting quite close to 2070. It will be interesting to see though whether the booking period between 11 and 7 months gets more competitive as the percentage of resale owners rises and more people buy for renting.

 

[Sandisw]

I think agree with you (though they may want to get down to a certain fraction that can expire all at once)— in any event, I don’t think they are going to ROFR anything above $85, I was thinking more that extended could drop even lower if they only ROFR direct.

DVD won’t owe operating dues on those…just covering the shortfall…so that gives them a lot of rooms for cash rentals.

It will be interesting to see what they do

 

[Cfabar1]

A few things - prefaced by RIV is not the resort for our family... I have no particular affection for the resort as many on these boards already know... We are more likely to buy a Hyatt Vacation Club contract than a RIV contract, or an OKW contract, or even a VB or HHI contract.... These comments come from a DVC member who has little to no love for Disney's Riviera Resort....

1. I don't think restrictions matter quite as much at Disney - people are buying WDW resorts to stay at WDW.... It is not to have exchange options which are minimal outside of WDW....

2. RIV's attractive transportation options will allow it to have meaningful resale value.

3. RIV resale is currently the single best deal in DVC, bar none... if it is a resort you envision wanting to stay at regularly, not buying RIV resale is a huge mistake....

4. I do agree the value is likely to decline over time - especially once newer resorts that might offer better locations come into existence... But I think it is likely to maintain meaningful value to owners, and while resale prices may decline, I think you'll still get a nice return on your investment if you evaluate in the terms that @Brian Noble mentions above.

 

[tidefan]

I think that CFW is going to be an interesting one. We have 2 stays booked there, and when I was looking at getting a NYE reservation there, I noticed that they are almost all booked up the entire year.

I think that they way it is set up, with the trust and ambiguity as it is that they can play shenanigans with the point charts, the high dues, and the restrictions, it is a terrible value to buy, but...

I think that CFW is going to be extremely popular at 7 months for most of the membership.

 

[CastAStone]

DVD won’t owe operating dues on those…just covering the shortfall…so that gives them a lot of rooms for cash rentals.

It will be interesting to see what they do

I don’t think those rooms will be easy to rent or easy to sell. If they wind up having to rent out several hundred villas for cash every night at a 55 year old resort with the only rooms on property that still have couch beds, only one poorly located restaurant and bus only transportation I think that’s going to be a serious challenge.

 

[CastAStone]

RIV resale is currently the single best deal in DVC, bar none... if it is a resort you envision wanting to stay at regularly, not buying RIV resale is a huge mistake....

Hard disagree. Those rooms are way too many points and in 10 years, the cash prices will be in the realm of AKV, not VGF.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

I think that CFW is going to be an interesting one. We have 2 stays booked there, and when I was looking at getting a NYE reservation there, I noticed that they are almost all booked up the entire year.

I think that they way it is set up, with the trust and ambiguity as it is that they can play shenanigans with the point charts, the high dues, and the restrictions, it is a terrible value to buy, but...

I think that CFW is going to be extremely popular at 7 months for most of the membership.

I am highly annoyed that this all true. I am one of those that was really wanting to book CFW regularly and it sure looks like that won’t be easy at 7 months. The point chart is absurdly low, which guarantees a lot of interest in cabins that sleep 6.

Anyone have a silver lining on availability at CFW? Maybe more inventory declared is on the way? Maybe there is a track record with other new resorts wherein the early excitement subsides and booking options open up?

 

[Coronator]

A few things - prefaced by RIV is not the resort for our family... I have no particular affection for the resort as many on these boards already know... We are more likely to buy a Hyatt Vacation Club contract than a RIV contract, or an OKW contract, or even a VB or HHI contract.... These comments come from a DVC member who has little to no love for Disney's Riviera Resort....

1. I don't think restrictions matter quite as much at Disney - people are buying WDW resorts to stay at WDW.... It is not to have exchange options which are minimal outside of WDW....

2. RIV's attractive transportation options will allow it to have meaningful resale value.

3. RIV resale is currently the single best deal in DVC, bar none... if it is a resort you envision wanting to stay at regularly, not buying RIV resale is a huge mistake....

4. I do agree the value is likely to decline over time - especially once newer resorts that might offer better locations come into existence... But I think it is likely to maintain meaningful value to owners, and while resale prices may decline, I think you'll still get a nice return on your investment if you evaluate in the terms that @Brian Noble mentions above.

Phew - that’s a hot take! “Single best value in DVC” is an interesting opinion… I think it certainly depends on what one wants out of DVC. But for a small secondary contract, I think it’s definitely a great value.