New Private Island

[Intr3pid]

Well, that is when all of the kids are out of school.............so that makes sense.

If that was the only reason, you would see DCL keeping all four ships in the Caribbeans in the summer. Why bother with the hassles of repositioning to Alaska and Europe? Because it's not just about the schools, it's also about where the families want to go in those school holidays.

Not by Disney! I've been waiting for years for them to expand their itineraries to other islands (for more than just a couple of cruises a season!). I'd rather have better itineraries than another CC type island.

I agree - I'm also an itinerary person, but Disney doesn't seem to need great itineraries to charge the premium. Just look at their Alaskan cruises.

 

[AquaDame]

Just a thought...

There have been rumblings in the past about delegations from the Port of New Orleans talking to DCL. Carnival, NCL, and RCCL are all homeporting from there, Carnival with multiple ships. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Wonder there as it would be a perfect tie-in with the Tiana theming...

We've yet to visit New Orleans... if they sail from there, we'd totally do a combo land and sea trip.

 

[truck1]

Those are excellent observations - I haven't been following the ships that closely. At least their histories. That being said, I don't see Disney committing too much more to the Caribbeans for a number of reasons (beyond the obvious super saturation).

1. DCL's marketing startegy is pretty straightforward. Get families into cruising with a three- or four-nighter aboard Dream out of PC. (Get them while they are at the parks.) Move them up to a 7-nighter in Fantasy or another longer itinerary in the Caribbeans - and then get them to splurge on the itineraries with fat profits (Alaska + Europe). Most North American families won't start their DCL cruising in Alaska or Europe (unless accompanying someone else), but the lifetime value of a DCL cruiser climbs astronomically once you can get them out of the Caribbeans.

2. The funnel. If you have too many low-margin itineraries, you will have people hooked on to cruising, but they will then flee to other cruise lines for better itineraries. You want them to stay with you when the real spending comes. (You want to grow - no pun - with your cruising families.) Unlike other cruise lines, DCL doesn't have millennial vs experience brands - so the segmentation must come from the cruising experience itself.

3. Let's do the numbers. Let's calculate the fares of a verandah room with four occupants for the combined months of July and August 2019. I would use the 2018 numbers, but several Wonder verandahs are sold out for those dates.

Disney Fantasy: $4,340 + $9,841 + $8,662 + $6,760 + $9,757 + $9,964 + $8,020 + $5,369 + $13,523 = $76,236
Disney Wonder: $10,496 + $14,732 + $14,539 + $14,217 + $13,755 + $12,817 + $11,826 + $11,099 + $18,184 = $121,665

Now, let's look at the availability in July and August 2018. Categories include inside, oceanview, verandah, and concierge.

Disney Fantasy: Out of 4 categories x 9 sailings, 5 are sold out.
Disney Wonder: Out of 4 categories x 9 sailings, 16 are sold out.

So - DCL charges ~60% more on Wonder, yet four times as many Wonder sailings are sold out. That's a staggering demand/supply imbalance. (Caveat: Fantasy has ~42% more rooms - but also a disproportionately higher build cost.)

4. There is nothing to 'try out' any more in Europe and Alaska. These are established cruise markets. Princess, for example, will have nearly a dozen ships deployed in Alaska next year. The modifications required are trivial compared to the profits. Yes, DCL is not a trend maker, but going to Alaska and Europe in 2022 is a much belated trend following.

5. Disney has shown tremendous interest in Asia. It now has three - not one or two but three - theme parks in Asia Pacific. And they are ringing in big numbers. Disney just need to push through another 4 or 5 years of movies - just in time for the last of the new ships to roll out.

6. Completely agreed about the LNG ports - but most of the fully developed LNG ports are currently in Europe. Spain (such as in Barcelona) is investing in LNG fueling capacity, and Germany is way ahead in that respect.

Getting slightly ot here. Ill continue over on the speculation page if you would like to continue the conversation.
Im not sure that I would use the word saturated for the Caribbean. Theres still a lot of potential out there, that lines are just now realizing. Especially since the usual ports were taken out by Irma and Maria.

All of DCLs ships are paid off and they were paid off in record time by Disney standards. They were paid off in less then 3 years so everything DCL makes net is theres. So there profit margains Id imagine are pretty comfortable. This is something Ive pointed out a number of times. The difference between say DCL and RCL is that DCLs prices go up, the farther out from opening day while RCL uses discounts and promotions to get you onboard. On the surface, when you look at 2 similar ships, 1 from DCL and the other from RCL is that the base pricing is close to the same. RCL, Carnival, NCL all discount their fares knowing that they can make up the difference in specialty restaurants, casinos etc. Its rare for DCL to have a discount in general, though they do run them from time to time.

When you compare an Alaskan itin, to a carib you kind of comparing apples to oranges. I went and looked yesterday to see the price differences and I can see 3 places where the Alaskan pricing would be higher. First is the taxes on an Alaskan area almost 2x what a Carib is. It was like 338 in the Carib for a family of 4, vs 7 and change for an Alaskan. 2nd is industry average. Most other lines are in the ballpark. 3rd, besides what is required to sail up there, is the cost to actually operate there. Berthing fees are probably higher, compared to PC, fuel, food environmental requirements(trash disposal etc) etc, are probably more expensive also, and guess who gets to help pickup that tab.

Disney as a whole has shown interest in Asia. The cruise line has not. It goes back to the watch where the ships go and well see what DCL does next. Yes it pops up from time to time on surveys and in CC receptions. But the truth is DCL at least to this point has not shown any interest in sending a ship over there. If it was on DCLs immediate radar, yould see probably the Magic go over there for a season. To date, hasn't happened. It could be because of what the Asian community as a whole expects from a cruise, (smoking, lounges, casinos etc of which DCL has little to none of) or it could be they have other things to look at first. Time will tell.

When I said try out, I mean initially. Using Europe as an example, DCL went over, tried it,went back, and now goes every year. After the 3rd year, they are in the here to stay camp. Every once in a while they may switch up ports, but theve been there for several years now. Same with Alaska. It seems to work for them. A failed experiment would be Freeport. The Magic tried Freeport years ago and other then failed drydocks, they haven't gone back. Med cruises are proven to work. I would expect one of the Dream class to replace the Magic in the Med as a next step to grow the foot print.

Disneys main problem, is and has been, a lack of ships. They are handcuffed by what is working, and cant spare a ship to try out say a 14 day Hawaiin Island tour. Now, when the Magic class, is free from Europe and Alaska, they should be doing things they cant normally. With the Magic in Miami, they should be trying Southerns to islands that are barely touched, more then 7s to say the Canal and back, things they don't normally do. 10/11 day southern island hopping trips. Princess and Royal both seem to be able to do it, so why not Disney?

 

[Intr3pid]

Getting slightly ot here. Ill continue over on the speculation page if you would like to continue the conversation.
Im not sure that I would use the word saturated for the Caribbean. Theres still a lot of potential out there, that lines are just now realizing. Especially since the usual ports were taken out by Irma and Maria.

All of DCLs ships are paid off and they were paid off in record time by Disney standards. They were paid off in less then 3 years so everything DCL makes net is theres. So there profit margains Id imagine are pretty comfortable. This is something Ive pointed out a number of times. The difference between say DCL and RCL is that DCLs prices go up, the farther out from opening day while RCL uses discounts and promotions to get you onboard. On the surface, when you look at 2 similar ships, 1 from DCL and the other from RCL is that the base pricing is close to the same. RCL, Carnival, NCL all discount their fares knowing that they can make up the difference in specialty restaurants, casinos etc. Its rare for DCL to have a discount in general, though they do run them from time to time.

When you compare an Alaskan itin, to a carib you kind of comparing apples to oranges. I went and looked yesterday to see the price differences and I can see 3 places where the Alaskan pricing would be higher. First is the taxes on an Alaskan area almost 2x what a Carib is. It was like 338 in the Carib for a family of 4, vs 7 and change for an Alaskan. 2nd is industry average. Most other lines are in the ballpark. 3rd, besides what is required to sail up there, is the cost to actually operate there. Berthing fees are probably higher, compared to PC, fuel, food environmental requirements(trash disposal etc) etc, are probably more expensive also, and guess who gets to help pickup that tab.

Disney as a whole has shown interest in Asia. The cruise line has not. It goes back to the watch where the ships go and well see what DCL does next. Yes it pops up from time to time on surveys and in CC receptions. But the truth is DCL at least to this point has not shown any interest in sending a ship over there. If it was on DCLs immediate radar, yould see probably the Magic go over there for a season. To date, hasn't happened. It could be because of what the Asian community as a whole expects from a cruise, (smoking, lounges, casinos etc of which DCL has little to none of) or it could be they have other things to look at first. Time will tell.

When I said try out, I mean initially. Using Europe as an example, DCL went over, tried it,went back, and now goes every year. After the 3rd year, they are in the here to stay camp. Every once in a while they may switch up ports, but theve been there for several years now. Same with Alaska. It seems to work for them. A failed experiment would be Freeport. The Magic tried Freeport years ago and other then failed drydocks, they haven't gone back. Med cruises are proven to work. I would expect one of the Dream class to replace the Magic in the Med as a next step to grow the foot print.

Disneys main problem, is and has been, a lack of ships. They are handcuffed by what is working, and cant spare a ship to try out say a 14 day Hawaiin Island tour. Now, when the Magic class, is free from Europe and Alaska, they should be doing things they cant normally. With the Magic in Miami, they should be trying Southerns to islands that are barely touched, more then 7s to say the Canal and back, things they don't normally do. 10/11 day southern island hopping trips. Princess and Royal both seem to be able to do it, so why not Disney?

The difference between speculation and an educated forecast is the level of research, but I agree this isn't the topic of the thread. You make some interesting points, so I will add my thoughts here:

1. While the ships are paid off, their amortization and the resulting impact on reported profits go on for a couple of decades.

2. I don't quite follow how comparing Alaska and the Caribbeans are apples to oranges when Disney has to make a decision on where to deploy its ships. (A) The marginal taxes for the prices I quoted previously are ~$400 per room per sailing. For 9 sailings, that's $3,200 extra per room. So, instead of saying that Disney is charging ~60% more in Alaska, let's say 55%. The point remains. (B) The industry average is higher for a reason: you need to accommodate 12 months of cruising passengers into just 4 months of the season. (C) Operating costs can go in either direction. Cruising industry has more pricing power against the Alaskan ports given their contributions to the local town economies. Then, Disney handles and charges quite a bit of the premium Alaskan port excursions, while it funds your "excursions" in Castaway Cay.

3. Disney cruise line isn't a separate division. It's a product offered by 'Disney Signature Experiences', which comes under the strategic decision-making of Disney Parks and Experiences. Bob Chapek, who heads up the parks/experiences, pulls the trigger on strategic growth. And here is what their leadership is saying today:
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/en...als-are-considering-opening-another-park.html

4. No need to brand 2 billion of population as smokers and gamblers. They are, in fact, more involved in multi-generational family travel than most of us in North America. Even for North American/European cruisers, all luxury cruise lines spend a considerable amount of time in Asia Pacific every year.

5. I agree that Disney won't just jump into something like a 10-year port contract with Shanghai or Tokyo, but it could in the way it "tested the waters" in Europe. The reason it hasn't yet been to Asia Pacific is straightforward: no available ship.

6. Long 10-/11-day itineraries are going to be one-offs for Disney. (Those Disney prices are astronomical - compared to Princess or RCI.) Only a small segment of the cruising population wants to splurge that much in the Caribbeans. And if Disney really saw much upside in exotic itineraries, they could try it already - as they currently have four ships operating in the Caribbeans outside of spring/summer.

 

[VickyKnit]

There has been talk for some time about a potential hotel or DVC in the Bahamas. Possibly in conjunction with the cruise line. This would be interesting. No one would have thought Disney would build a hotel in HI until they did it.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

There is simply no chance this is a DVC play.

DVC sells points against resort units assuming 365-day occupancy. One of the key things about a destination is that it has to be accessible. This means it needs regular service via common carrier. HHI and Aulani both are served via major airports with abundant service. A small island like this? No common carrier. This limits all sales and access potential for a resort concept.

Aulani hasn't been especially successful as a DVC resort. They got in a mess of legal trouble, and it's going to take more than 10 years to sell it through. And that's for a desirable destination that can be accessed via scheduled carrier.

 

[WDW&DCLADDICT]

While I would love to see Disney cruise out of Jacksonville as it's the closest port to where I live, the problem is that the new ships will be too tall for the current cruise port as they would need to sail under the Dames Point Bridge. The city has been rumored on and off over the years to be considering moving the cruise port east of the bridge, but unless that happens the fact that the port can accommodate LNG unfortunately won't matter.

The Magic would barely fit as the Carnival Elation only fits by inches at low tide. The Move east to maybe Mayport close to where i live in AB, as much as i want that to happen it wont, because of local residents, also the same reason we wont get any other nice ships here.

 

[truck1]

The difference between speculation and an educated forecast is the level of research, but I agree this isn't the topic of the thread. You make some interesting points, so I will add my thoughts here:

1. While the ships are paid off, their amortization and the resulting impact on reported profits go on for a couple of decades.

2. I don't quite follow how comparing Alaska and the Caribbeans are apples to oranges when Disney has to make a decision on where to deploy its ships. (A) The marginal taxes for the prices I quoted previously are ~$400 per room per sailing. For 9 sailings, that's $3,200 extra per room. So, instead of saying that Disney is charging ~60% more in Alaska, let's say 55%. The point remains. (B) The industry average is higher for a reason: you need to accommodate 12 months of cruising passengers into just 4 months of the season. (C) Operating costs can go in either direction. Cruising industry has more pricing power against the Alaskan ports given their contributions to the local town economies. Then, Disney handles and charges quite a bit of the premium Alaskan port excursions, while it funds your "excursions" in Castaway Cay.

3. Disney cruise line isn't a separate division. It's a product offered by 'Disney Signature Experiences', which comes under the strategic decision-making of Disney Parks and Experiences. Bob Chapek, who heads up the parks/experiences, pulls the trigger on strategic growth. And here is what their leadership is saying today:
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/en...als-are-considering-opening-another-park.html

4. No need to brand 2 billion of population as smokers and gamblers. They are, in fact, more involved in multi-generational family travel than most of us in North America. Even for North American/European cruisers, all luxury cruise lines spend a considerable amount of time in Asia Pacific every year.

5. I agree that Disney won't just jump into something like a 10-year port contract with Shanghai or Tokyo, but it could in the way it "tested the waters" in Europe. The reason it hasn't yet been to Asia Pacific is straightforward: no available ship.

6. Long 10-/11-day itineraries are going to be one-offs for Disney. (Those Disney prices are astronomical - compared to Princess or RCI.) Only a small segment of the cruising population wants to splurge that much in the Caribbeans. And if Disney really saw much upside in exotic itineraries, they could try it already - as they currently have four ships operating in the Caribbeans outside of spring/summer.

Replying in the speculation thread where its more on topic there.