New Fastpass Tier Predictions

[rteetz]

This. I'm not in Disney to shop, I'm there to enjoy the rides and attractions. I can shop for Disney stuf from the comfort of my home and get better prices to boot.

Disney wants you spending money though so that’s why they’ll push people to do so.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

Smuggler’s Run and Slinky Dog Dash are now tier 1 at DHS. Everything else is tier 2.

 

[HuskieJohn]

Have to assume Mickey will be a Tier 1 FP+ right?

 

[ClapYourHands]

Smuggler’s Run and Slinky Dog Dash are now tier 1 at DHS. Everything else is tier 2.

Well, that's good and bad. Good because my DD will probably want to ride all the TSL rides. Bad because everyone booking one of these two rides is going to make the Standby waits ridiculous for both, and make getting one on FP day even harder than SDD was before.

 

[rteetz]

Have to assume Mickey will be a Tier 1 FP+ right?

When it gets FP...

 

[Alynw]

Ride capacity doesn’t change with FP. If you would eliminate FP at FOP the demand for the ride would still be there for the 3+ hour wait FOP currently has. With that wait there is a real demand for and need for FP. There just isn’t that kind of need for a ride with capacity to work through demand in 1 hour.

You are correct, ride capacity dosent change with FP but it absolutely does change wait times which is what Thecouch was talking about. Now his math is incorrect, it's not that simple and u can't calculate it that way. We would need alot more info in order to come up with a comparison. I doubt it would drop from 3hr to 35min but it would definitely drop. Yea, ride capacity is a big part of the equation but it's the fact they are constantly holding up the standby line to allow fp line to ride that creates a very long wait time. In order for Disney to make there FP system appealing, they have to make sure they keep the FP line wait down to 15min or less and in order for them to accomplish this they have to allow a massive amount of people to constantly cut to the front of the line which in turn creates the 3hr+ long waits for standby. Disney has this down to a science, their FP allows them the ability to control the standby lines, the more fp they release the longer the standby and the longer the standby the more appealing that 60 day advance fp becomes which makes staying on property more appealing. I dont have the exact numbers but if they were to remove the fp line they would absolutely reduce the standby waiting times dramatically. Disney specifically uses FP to create extreme standby times in order to make the 60 day FP so appealing to get more onsite bookings. Get rid of FP and standby would drop to a fraction of time it is now, they would lose some of their onsite guests.

 

[Miffy]

Get rid of FP and standby would drop to a fraction of time it is now, they would lose a tremendous amount of onsite guests.

@Alynw--I was nodding my head in agreement with you until I got to this part. There are so many other advantages to staying onsite at WDW that I don't think getting rid of FP would seriously impact their room occupancy. What are these advantages? DME. Free parking at the parks. Internal WDW transportation: bus, boat, monorail, Skyliner. Ease of getting back to one's resort to take a break. EMHs. Proximity to the parks, although I realize that there are some off-site resorts that are just as close as some of the WDW resorts but they do not have transportation to the parks that's just as frequent as onsite resorts have. Those are just a few examples off the top of my head.

And there are the intangibles, like the so-called bubble, which I'm very fond of. And the theming at many of the resorts, which I'm not alone in my enjoyment and appreciation of this sort of thing.

Now, if they took away DME, that might have an on the resorts, although charging for parking doesn't seem to have done that, so I could be wrong there.

I use the current FP+ system, but I'm not in love with it and completely agree with you that it's created long standby waits. It's especially noticeable at rides that used to have little to no standby wait times, like SE or IaSW. Maybe Disney likes this--it gives the impression that rides with long standby lines are super popular or so worth it, even if they're not.

 

[Alynw]

You are correct, I'm not firmilar with all the onsite perks..I'll edit that for ya. Good points.

 

[shafke]

@Alynw--Free parking at the parks.

Technically still true but that kind of went away when they started charging to park at the resort.

 

[ClapYourHands]

Technically still true but that kind of went away when they started charging to park at the resort.

True, but since resort parking prices are tiered, it can still be less expensive, especially at the value resorts.

 

[Miffy]

Technically still true but that kind of went away when they started charging to park at the resort.

True.

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

You cant compare wait times of non fastpass wait times and fastpass ride time. Even FOP avg wait time would probably be under a hour for all guest when you add that 80% of riders are using fastpass and waiting 5-15min and only 20% at 2hrs

Edit. For FOP say 1000 guest a hour 20% at 2hrs and 80% at 15min (avg probably lower then that) works out avg wait time of 36min for all guest

I would think without fast passes you would see wait times similar to Universal which can get pretty lengthy for the popular rides. I know Universal has an express pass but it’s not utilized nearly as much. Universal also has lower attendance than AK and more thrill ride options so I think FOP would still have unpleasant wait times.

 

[loutoo]

Technically still true but that kind of went away when they started charging to park at the resort

The real perk is not needing a car at all. We (and many onsite guests) rely entirely on disney transportation. That means $0 in gas, car rental, parking, tolls, etc...

 

[tinkerjo]

I didn’t read the whole entire thread but wanted to say that I have never liked the current FP+ system. We never minded getting paper FP and had it down to a science. BUT having said that, I LOVE DL maxpass. I like that you have to be in the park to activate it, we could plan our day while we were there, not months before, and we got on every single thing we wanted. I didn’t mind paying for it because it wasn’t much and I felt like I got my money’s worth. Would it work at WDW. Not sure, but I hate deciding everything months prior to my vacation!!!

 

[ClapYourHands]

The real perk is not needing a car at all. We (and many onsite guests) rely entirely on disney transportation. That means $0 in gas, car rental, parking, tolls, etc...

Absolutely! When I first joined Disboards, I was planning a semi-budget trip for myself and older kids. I spent a lot of time on the Orlando Hotels and Attractions page. I learned a lot about many different offsite hotels, and got quite good at identifying them in opaque bookings on Hotwire.

But then the time came to start booking, and once I added in parking and car rental, my savings were pretty much obliterated. Staying on-site at a value is as cost effective (or more cost effective) as an offsite stay, depending on your party’s make up.

Now if we all go as a family of five, the calculations shift in favor of offsite because we can easily pay for parking, gas, rental car, and lodging for less than a moderate. And to be honest, my family would be miserable if we tried to all cram into one room for a week. At that point, quality of sleep makes offsite accommodations more valuable than anything in the Disney bubble.

 

[Feberin]

If it wasn't for the advantage with Fastpasses I would stay offsite. We drive so we already have a car and the difference in pricing with resort/park parking could be made up in savings per night on offsite accommodations. Plus if we had a kitchen that would cut dining costs.
I remember going as a child before Fastpasses and having really long waits. And I was pulled out of school to go so not peak crowds. I like that with Fastpasses and strategies you can avoid too many long lines especially with small children.