Sorry, but I'm not hungry isn't an unfortunate circumstance. It's easily preventable. That's the reason you said you personally had canceled last minute or had been a no show early on in the thread.
I'm sure we all care about people with unfortunately circumstances. I definitely do. Frankly, I just remember the excuses given early in the thread, & know this isn't all about people being sick. It's about people wanting to continue canceling last minute or not show, because they're not hungry, want to ride another ride, the kids went swimming & now they're tired, the kids have been going all day & are cranky, the weather isn't perfect, someone is hungover, etc. I'm not buying what all the people who have now turned to the "sick" argument are selling. People are now thinking up any reason why someone may get sick & using that to attempt to bolster the argument. It's getting ridiculous. It's not like new people are coming here to add their personal story. It's the same people coming up with different excuses. I was trying to not be so blunt, but being accused of not caring about people, because you're not buying the never ending excuses people can come up with, is going too far. The reality is most of the things mentioned here can be managed, if it's given priority. Some people see previous commitments as priorities. Those who don't shouldn't make commitments. It's that simple.
For the people who originally mentioned loved ones getting sick on previous trips, I feel bad. They're paying for all those with other excuses, as are other guests. Unfortunately, guests have always had to pay the price for those who make ADRs months in advance, keeping others from getting in, then don't feel obligated to show up. People are upset that they'll no longer be able to book up the best restaurants, then decide if they want to show up last minute. So, who really doesn't consider other people?
I'd have to go back in the thread to find my exact wording, I don't believe I actually stated that I skipped one just because I wasn't hungry. I believe it was a "what if" scenario using a "not so good" excuse that wouldn't likely be waived. The whole point of it was to present a likely lowest point that I would find acceptable to cancel shortly ahead of time.
In fact, the meal I missed this year was due to a minor illness. Nothing major, I had the sniffles and overslept on my nap and woke up an hour after ADR time (ADR was for 5:30, I woke up at 6:30). It was the end of the trip, and my normal 2:30-3ish to 3:30-4ish nap went over. Until the time I woke up, I had every intention of going, and was even really looking forward to it (it was tied as my #1 meal from last trip). I had been feeling cruddy all week with a minor cold, though I did go to my ADRs that I had planned. Most of them I even got sat in a reasonable amount of time too! Just, this one evening, things didn't work out. I didn't mention this before, as it's not about that. Even under the changes I suggested, I would have been charged the $10 fee and I would have been OK with Disney with that (I probably would have been more annoyed at myself though
)
Now, I don't have an issue with those who think they must make their own family make every ADR they sign up for every time without even considering canceling them after the window closes. That's there business, not mine. I have an issue with Disney penalizing the wrong people in a lackluster effort to curtail behavior which they can better control with other methods. Of course, those other methods aren't a nearly guaranteed source of income, so it's no wonder why Disney went this way.
The more recent information from the CMs (and since much of them are spouting identical information, it's hard to claim the typical CM making stuff up like) screams that it's all about additional revenue. Either by charging the $10pp fee, or by forcing said families to the table, even though it may not be in anyone's best interest to have them there. Disney has now made the decision that their bottom line is more important than their guests' well being and than guest satisfaction. That is not a precedent that I like seeing.
Now, I get that no shows are bad. I understand that portion of it, and I think most, if not all, of us who are on this side of the fence do as well. What I don't agree with, and the same sentiment is shown by others on this thread, is the design and implementation of this "all or nothing" policy. It strangles families who may have unexpected issues come up, while not truly addressing those that cause the bulk of the issues. One big step would have been widening the ADR window that locks you out, instead of 90 minutes or so, go for 6 hours. Write the website to make sense. Check names and numbers on all the ADRs and be pro-active in calling people up who may be multi-booking. Automatically cancel any tied ADRs to package reservations that get canceled due to non-payment at 30 days. Force CMs to work with guests if they're canceling reservations over the phone. In other words, put the resources to stop the root of the problem instead of smashing the hammer down on those who are very unlikely to be the problem.
Then again, I could go on for hours (and I've already been typing for 1...) typing out my arguments, but will just be told that "It doesn't matter what you think, Disney is all that matters" from the fan-club.
I think there is plenty of evidence in this thread alone that proves Disney needed to do something - all the poor excuses people have listed for blowing off ADRs, plus the statistics from Touring Plans stating that no-show rates range from 10% to 33%, depending on the month.
"Blowing off" and having to cancel at the last(ish) minute are two different things. Blowing off suggests no real intent in the first place. A last minute cancellation suggests they had intent and desired to dine at that location. Of course, it doesn't hold true across the board, but I'd bet that most of those who actually blow off an ADR are not those who have something come up unexpectedly.
As far as the statistics, they only tell half the story. That's the base problem with statistics taken out of context. We don't know why January has such a high rate. We don't know why the 10% months have such a low (relatively) rate. The questions should be, why are these months so out of proportion with the others? What are the key differences in travelers and other external factors that could account for this disparity? How can we address those issues while maintaining the same level of guest satisfaction and experience? If you just look at the numbers, you're basically saying that the people traveling in Jan/Feb (or whatever other 33% level months there are) are almost all abusing the system and deserve not to have any ADRs. The policy of just bringing the hammer down suggests that they didn't bother with this and just said "Screw them all. If they don't like it, they'll pay us anyway!"
Sadly, that will likely hold true.
This way, if something legitimate IMHO prevents us from going, we won't get charged for nothing but it's also banking the odds that someone else won't want my ADR in that 48 hours. And if it's taken, no problem. There isn't a meal that I *have* to do in order to enjoy my vacation.
But I just wanted to say thanks for the healthy discussion. 
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