Marathon Weekend 2019

[camaker]

That's interesting! So are you saying the pace of marathon predicted by McMillan + 90 sec (like 12:00 predicted and seeded by 13:30)? Or total predicted time + 90 sec (predicted 5:00 and seeded by 5:01:30)? Seems like the latter.

I’ve read arguments on both sides that they do/do not assess a time adjustment when corralling for challenges. One question I would have is do they only adjust if you’re using an estimator? For example, if you submit a half marathon PoT for a 19.3 challenge do they adjust or is it only adjusted if you submit a 10k PoT?

Based on my corralling experience, they either don’t adjust times or it’s a PoT + 90 sec total (not pace) adjustment. When I ran the Double Dare last year I submitted a 1:52:20 HM PoT. The time cutoff published for Corral A was 1:54. I was in A/A for the challenge. No way that happens adding 90 sec to the pace. My Dopey corralling was similar. Consistent with either no adjustment or total + 90 sec, not pace + 90 sec.

 

[Keels]

It’s pace plus 90 seconds

 

[tidefan]

It’s pace plus 90 seconds

So, @Keels, are you saying that rD would convert a 11:30 HM pace to a 13:00 Full Marathon pace?

 

[wdvak]

I won't have a PoT (most likely) for these upcoming races so I'm planning to get there as early as possible and stake out my spot at the front of the corral. Moving is really going to mess things up for me and I won't be PR ready for a race until September when there aren't many FL or GA races.

I will be doing that too. I got the green light from the physical therapist to start walking again and am going to seriously work on getting fitter and faster. However, I won’t be ready for a race until September and can’t see that I will be able to travel somewhere (middle of Alaska doesn’t have big race choices ) for a PoT. And realistically I don’t know that I would be fast enough even then. My main goal is to finish Dopey uninjured and feeling good.

 

[wdvak]

So, @Keels, are you saying that rD would convert a 11:30 HM pace to a 13:00 Full Marathon pace?

Well, that makes it easy. I don’t have to worry about PoT, just about getting better. Works for me - less worry

 

[cavepig]

I’ve read arguments on both sides that they do/do not assess a time adjustment when corralling for challenges. One question I would have is do they only adjust if you’re using an estimator? For example, if you submit a half marathon PoT for a 19.3 challenge do they adjust or is it only adjusted if you submit a 10k PoT?

Based on my corralling experience, they either don’t adjust times or it’s a PoT + 90 sec total (not pace) adjustment. When I ran the Double Dare last year I submitted a 1:52:20 HM PoT. The time cutoff published for Corral A was 1:54. I was in A/A for the challenge. No way that happens adding 90 sec to the pace. My Dopey corralling was similar. Consistent with either no adjustment or total + 90 sec, not pace + 90 sec.

Same here always. I don't think they adjust half times at all for the 19.3 challenges. I've always used a half time and been put exactly where I should be. Even for Dopey I was in the right corral for the full marathon which then maybe was like one back for the half (old corraling system that is) but that's because they corral for the full not the half is what I always thought.
Adjusting pace by 90 seconds seems really off to me as that's 2 totally different running paces.

 

[ANIM8R]

Same here always. I don't think they adjust half times at all for the 19.3 challenges. I've always used a half time and been put exactly where I should be. Even for Dopey I was in the right corral for the full marathon which then maybe was like one back for the half (old corraling system that is) but that's because they corral for the full not the half is what I always thought.
Adjusting pace by 90 seconds seems really off to me as that's 2 totally different running paces.

I've been in the same boat the last couple of years. My Dopey PoT is a barely (|<---this much!-->|) sub 2 hr half...which works out to 4:10 or 4:15 marathon using most race calculators. My corralling has been consistent with the times given for the full corrals but I've been corralled 1 back from the 2 hr corral for the half marathon both times...which is a slight bummer because on Dopey weekends I try to run a decent half (as far as time) but enjoy (lollygag/stop for pictures) during the 10K and the full. So, I've never gotten to run with the 2hr pace group before as they've always been in the corral in front of me and I haven't been able to make up that time... yet!

 

[camaker]

It’s pace plus 90 seconds

I think you've gotten some bad information somewhere. It can't be pace + 90 seconds. Going back to my example with the Disneyland Double Dare, I submitted a 1:52:20 PoT for the challenge and was corralled in A/A. If they had used pace + 90 sec, my ~8:34 min/mile from the PoT race would have been converted to an ~10:04 min/mile pace which would have put me at a 2:12 projected HM and a corral assignment of C. It would have been a similar penalty at Dopey this year. I've run a challenge at all but one RunDisney race weekends I've attended and been corralled appropriately based on the unadjusted PoT I've submitted. Now, there's enough wiggle room in that corralling that a total time + 90 sec might have been used, but there's no way it's pace + 90 sec.

 

[DopeyBadger]

It’s pace plus 90 seconds

Wow, that seems pretty big. A 90 sec pace adjustment would be 39 minutes and some change for a marathon adjustment. So for example,

A POT of 2:00 (9:10 min/mile) for a HM is a McMillan 4:12:33 (9:38 min/mile). A 90 second adjustment to 9:38 min/mile is 11:08 or a 4:51:42 marathon.

Here are the 2018 Dopey corrals:



Is this perchance a new system in place? Because otherwise this is what the 2018 WDW corral numbers would look like:



The one on the left is pure McMillan race conversions. The one on the right is with a 90 sec pace adjustment. So a person shooting for corral A (Time Required 3:40) in an adjusted case would need a 3:01:00 marathon race equivalent (3:40-39 min). That would be a 1:04:29 10 miler and 1:26:00 HM. I was in A this year with a 3:14 marathon submission (Bib 20134, so a low number compared to perceived cutoff of 20599). My time + 90 sec pace would be a 3:53. Although they certainly could have not adjusted my marathon time because I submitted a marathon and not another distance. I'd be surprised if 600 Dopey bibs submitted a HM or 10 miler less than the adjusted values above (of course they could have submitted a marathon time like me). Seems like I'm missing something in my attempt to understand because this seems like too big of a swing.

 

[Dis5150]

@IamTrike have you looked at the Silo Marathon website lately? I just looked at it yesterday and they have the course map up. They also changed the bib pick up location and I don't see anything anymore about the free shuttle/trolley from free parking at McLane Stadium. I emailed them and am waiting on an answer as that was our plan for race morning.

 

[IamTrike]

@IamTrike have you looked at the Silo Marathon website lately? I just looked at it yesterday and they have the course map up. They also changed the bib pick up location and I don't see anything anymore about the free shuttle/trolley from free parking at McLane Stadium. I emailed them and am waiting on an answer as that was our plan for race morning.

I haven't yet we still need to book flights and figure out child care.

 

[BriarRabbit]

Some friends want to run their first half marathon at WDW in Januray 2019. They plan on submitting a 10k for POT. Will the actual pace be used or an adjustment like 10k pace + x seconds? Thanks.

 

[Nole95]

I can't imagine they add pace + 90 seconds. This year I submitted a 2:21:32 half marathon time, which is a 10:48 pace. I ran Dopey so this means RD would have corraled me based on a 12:18 pace. This would have amounted to a 5:22 marathon time.

According to corral placements, I would have been in E. However, I was in D. McMillan calculated my marathon as 4:57, so the D placement was right in line with what McMillan predicted.

 

[camaker]

Some friends want to run their first half marathon at WDW in Januray 2019. They plan on submitting a 10k for POT. Will the actual pace be used or an adjustment like 10k pace + x seconds? Thanks.

Just have them feed their 10k result into the McMillan calculator to determine an equivalent half marathon time and submit that as their estimated time of completion.

 

[FlashAM7]

When I talked to a Track Shack employee they said if you submit a Half Marathon time they will add anywhere between 60-90 seconds extra per mile. So a 2 hour half marathon could very well be converted to a 4:30 full marathon according to them. I said that seems a bit extreme but they said they really try to give people who submitted full marathon POT's the priority in corral placement.

 

[tidefan]

When I talked to a Track Shack employee they said if you submit a Half Marathon time they will add anywhere between 60-90 seconds extra per mile. So a 2 hour half marathon could very well be converted to a 4:30 full marathon according to them. I said that seems a bit extreme but they said they really try to give people who submitted full marathon POT's the priority in corral placement.

This seems reasonable to me for perhaps the first few corrals (A-B, maybe C) as you would want faster runners up front, but by the time you get to D/E, I wonder if it is different in that these runners pace based upon an actual POT, whereas the later corrals (F and up) do not. So, I wonder that if you have a "reasonable" McMillan covered POT from a HM, etc., they would be more apt to adjust, but move you within corrals A-E, and only move you back to F or higher if your POT did not support close to your estimated time?

 

[lhermiston]

When I talked to a Track Shack employee they said if you submit a Half Marathon time they will add anywhere between 60-90 seconds extra per mile. So a 2 hour half marathon could very well be converted to a 4:30 full marathon according to them. I said that seems a bit extreme but they said they really try to give people who submitted full marathon POT's the priority in corral placement.

This sounds pretty similar to my experience with the 2017 marathon. I had a HM time around 2 hours (1:50-2:05 or so, can’t recall at the moment). I submitted that POT put an estimated time of 4:30 and got placed in D, which I think was about right. Finished in 4:22.

My experience with POTs and corrals - while extremely limited - has been positive.

 

[camaker]

When I talked to a Track Shack employee they said if you submit a Half Marathon time they will add anywhere between 60-90 seconds extra per mile. So a 2 hour half marathon could very well be converted to a 4:30 full marathon according to them. I said that seems a bit extreme but they said they really try to give people who submitted full marathon POT's the priority in corral placement.

I'm starting to think that we're getting runDisney-level misinformation from Track Shack here, because that doesn't line up with most people's experiences. Especially when you consider that when waivers come out, people look at their placement versus the estimated finish time that they entered and the associated PoT. If Track Shack was actually doing this, there would be a HUGE uproar as a very large number of runners would be corralled significantly behind where their appropriately-estimated finish times would have had them starting. Instead, we typically hear only from a handful of people about mis-corralling and can often trace it back to PoT or estimated finish time entry errors.

This seems reasonable to me for perhaps the first few corrals (A-B, maybe C) as you would want faster runners up front, but by the time you get to D/E, I wonder if it is different in that these runners pace based upon an actual POT, whereas the later corrals (F and up) do not. So, I wonder that if you have a "reasonable" McMillan covered POT from a HM, etc., they would be more apt to adjust, but move you within corrals A-E, and only move you back to F or higher if your POT did not support close to your estimated time?

The problem here is that the actual predicted drop off in pace is nowhere near 90 seconds/mile. I am nowhere near fast and the predicted difference between my marathon and half marathon paces is only ~ 20 sec/mile, which is already accounted for when submitting a McMillan-adjusted estimated finish time. Adding 90 sec/mile or so to that already-adjusted predicted pacing would have the opposite effect from what you suggested. It would move legitimately faster runners back into later corrals with slower runners who submitted a full marathon as PoT and cause more pace misalignment issues.

This sounds pretty similar to my experience with the 2017 marathon. I had a HM time around 2 hours (1:50-2:05 or so, can’t recall at the moment). I submitted that POT put an estimated time of 4:30 and got placed in D, which I think was about right. Finished in 4:22.

My experience with POTs and corrals - while extremely limited - has been positive.

Actually, if you go back to the 2017 marathon corral chart, Corral D encompassed estimated finish times of 3:47-3:58. So it would appear that they corralled you based on the PoT that you submitted rather than the estimated finish time that you entered. I was in Corral D that year as part of Dopey and I think I submitted a 3:56 estimated finish based on a 1:55 half marathon.

 

[cavepig]

When we registered for the 2015 marathon it converted our times for us at registration and my brother kept notes/printouts. His Half time was taken x 2.12 to get their Full marathon estimate if his math is correct. His 1:37:XX half turned into a 3:26:XX marathon estimate (I forgot to right down the seconds after talking to him). I don't know when it stopped doing it for us.

 

[Bree]

Well, it’s official. I just paid to register for Dopey.