Magic Bands info for the new test dates in August

[peyjax]

I agree with all this.

Let me preface what follows by saying that this is ALL speculation on my part. It's just based on my observations of guest patterns, conversations I've had, etc.

Disney already knows some of the math on one key factor: Not everyone who books a FP+ will use it. This is one of those statistical situations where over time, Disney will be able to nail that % down quite accurately. So it might be that only 30%-40% of booked FP+ will actually be used as scheduled. People sometimes miss their times, change their park and decide not to re-book new FP+ because they don't need/want to.

Disney knows this ahead of time. They know they can overbook FP+ for certain attractions, knowing that you will NEVER have 100% of booked FP+ being redeemed as scheduled.

And heck, I see tons of people who STILL don't use FP. What makes you think those people will suddenly "pick up" on FP+? To this day, I get people asking me what FP is and how much it costs, despite the information being readily available. If these people don't use and don't understand FP, why would they suddenly jump all over FP+?

I think many posters here are grossly overestimating how many people will actually book 3 FP+ experiences every single day of their trip. Grossly overestimating.

FP+ is going to be something that only the hardcore park goers (the people who post on forums such as this) use to its fullest extent. Believe it or not, the majority of WDW guests are not hardcore like us, do not post on message boards, and they experience the parks a lot more casually. These people might book some FP+ here and there, use the app to do so, etc. But only a minority of WDW guests are going to book the "big e-tickets" for every day of their stay weeks in advance. A lot of folks just get to the parks early, hit the e-tickets (without a FP or FP+), then do "everything else" - and in the non-peak season, you can easily take down all 4 parks without ever using a single FP.

So you might only have 25% of guests booking FP+ in advance, and of that 25%, it might be as low as 50% of that who actually show up for their scheduled FP+.

Just my 1.5 cents

Hmmm.. interesting thoughts. I can see where you are coming from and had similar thoughts to it as well. However I wonder why Disney is putting so much money into something only a small portion of people might or might not use. Why is Disney assuming that so many people are going to embrace technology like this for a vacation? I still can not wrap my head around it.

 

[bcrook]

I agree with all this.

Let me preface what follows by saying that this is ALL speculation on my part. It's just based on my observations of guest patterns, conversations I've had, etc.

Disney already knows some of the math on one key factor: Not everyone who books a FP+ will use it. This is one of those statistical situations where over time, Disney will be able to nail that % down quite accurately. So it might be that only 30%-40% of booked FP+ will actually be used as scheduled. People sometimes miss their times, change their park and decide not to re-book new FP+ because they don't need/want to.

Disney knows this ahead of time. They know they can overbook FP+ for certain attractions, knowing that you will NEVER have 100% of booked FP+ being redeemed as scheduled.

And heck, I see tons of people who STILL don't use FP. What makes you think those people will suddenly "pick up" on FP+? To this day, I get people asking me what FP is and how much it costs, despite the information being readily available. If these people don't use and don't understand FP, why would they suddenly jump all over FP+?

I think many posters here are grossly overestimating how many people will actually book 3 FP+ experiences every single day of their trip. Grossly overestimating.

FP+ is going to be something that only the hardcore park goers (the people who post on forums such as this) use to its fullest extent. Believe it or not, the majority of WDW guests are not hardcore like us, do not post on message boards, and they experience the parks a lot more casually. These people might book some FP+ here and there, use the app to do so, etc. But only a minority of WDW guests are going to book the "big e-tickets" for every day of their stay weeks in advance. A lot of folks just get to the parks early, hit the e-tickets (without a FP or FP+), then do "everything else" - and in the non-peak season, you can easily take down all 4 parks without ever using a single FP.

So you might only have 25% of guests booking FP+ in advance, and of that 25%, it might be as low as 50% of that who actually show up for their scheduled FP+.

Just my 1.5 cents

This all makes sense in regards to full blown FP+. The previous posts were specifically discussing how a large group of testers in August could interfere with those who don't have access to FP+ or the rides that utilize only FP+. And how fastpass availability might change based on the test. Whether the number is 24000 FP+ a day or more or less, it will effect the lines. I think people have a legitimate concern based on the money they are spending.

There is one piece of evidence that contradicts your argument. TSMM. Somehow enough people a day know that this ride books up by noon. All of those people in the mad dash are not dissers, and I wouldn't call that casual. And even though a large chunk of visitors have no idea how to maximize FP, there are plenty of people each day who have figured it out.

I am not scared of FP+. I can see how it is going to work, I understand why, and it will change things considerably. And I totally believe that the mad dash for TSMM will simply be moved from 8:00 am on the day of to some kind of virtual mad dash 60 days or 60+10 days or 45 days in advance and it will all be online. Word will get out.

 

[dayvewc]

I agree with all this.

Let me preface what follows by saying that this is ALL speculation on my part. It's just based on my observations of guest patterns, conversations I've had, etc.

Disney already knows some of the math on one key factor: Not everyone who books a FP+ will use it. This is one of those statistical situations where over time, Disney will be able to nail that % down quite accurately. So it might be that only 30%-40% of booked FP+ will actually be used as scheduled. People sometimes miss their times, change their park and decide not to re-book new FP+ because they don't need/want to.

Disney knows this ahead of time. They know they can overbook FP+ for certain attractions, knowing that you will NEVER have 100% of booked FP+ being redeemed as scheduled.

And heck, I see tons of people who STILL don't use FP. What makes you think those people will suddenly "pick up" on FP+? To this day, I get people asking me what FP is and how much it costs, despite the information being readily available. If these people don't use and don't understand FP, why would they suddenly jump all over FP+?

I think many posters here are grossly overestimating how many people will actually book 3 FP+ experiences every single day of their trip. Grossly overestimating.

FP+ is going to be something that only the hardcore park goers (the people who post on forums such as this) use to its fullest extent. Believe it or not, the majority of WDW guests are not hardcore like us, do not post on message boards, and they experience the parks a lot more casually. These people might book some FP+ here and there, use the app to do so, etc. But only a minority of WDW guests are going to book the "big e-tickets" for every day of their stay weeks in advance. A lot of folks just get to the parks early, hit the e-tickets (without a FP or FP+), then do "everything else" - and in the non-peak season, you can easily take down all 4 parks without ever using a single FP.

So you might only have 25% of guests booking FP+ in advance, and of that 25%, it might be as low as 50% of that who actually show up for their scheduled FP+.

Just my 1.5 cents

I like your reasoning on this. The only thing I'm not sure you factored in is that when people go online to schedule their Disney trip the website will be offering "Pre-planned FP+ Just click here and know that you have 3 rides reserved already". Or something similar. So, yeah, I DO think that a large number of people who are (willfully, blissfully, regrettably?) ignorant of FP as it is now will be scheduling FP+ in the future.

How many will just take the recommended picks (PoC, Country Bears, and HoP)?
How many will know just enough to pick headliners?
How many of those won't show up for their times?

But I do think there will be enough "new" users will get pushed into making those reservations that wouldn't / don't use regular FP that the reservation window and availability of FP+ will be affected.

Just my .005$ (Had to throw in enough to give you 0.02$ total. )

 

[PrincessArlena'sDad]

8000 rooms - 24000 people. - 96,000 fastpasses a day booked before anybody walks in the Parks. It could be a game changer. It is definitely a handicap.

Unfortunately for me, your numbers do seem reasonable. And, unlike some PPs, I do think the % of eligible testers that participate will be extremely high, and you can not compare with % of guests that don't use FP-. The reason: no one has ever received a personal inviation via UPS (and email) to collect FP-. Most people who get these letters will participate in FP+ (and it seems, EVERYONE who is eligible is getting them at 17 days). And, people will be choosing 3 (who would stop at 1 or 2) and many also getting the POTC bonus (though most probably won't know they could change it).

However, it may not necessarily be a game changer.

First, unlike previous tests, Disney does not seem to be advertising the fact that double dipping will be available for this test. So, even if double dipping is available, maybe only a small % of "insiders" will know to double dip. The rest will, essentially, be taking the FPs they would be taking anyway, just in advance. Now, the impact becomes a function of whether 3/4 is < or > the average number of fastpasses used/day by resort guests (including those that don't take any FP- in this average).

Second, we have to assume Disney will put limits on FP+ availability for this test, given the size. Could you imagine what would happen if TSM FP- ran out before 9:30? And, then imagine if all those rope drop people KNEW FP- was going to run out by 9:30! There really would be riots with people trying to run over each other to get TSM FP. Disney CAN NOT EVER LET ANYTHING LIKE THIS HAPPEN as long as FP- exists. They know this. Also, there must be FP- available at each interval (imagine putting a families tickes in FP machines, and half the family gets 1:00 - 2:00, and other half 2:30-3:30). Besides, even though Aug FP+ has only been available for 2 days, we've already heard of FP+ not being available at hoped for times. It'll be interesting to see what FP+ availability is the day before (hopefully someone will post this).

I think where us non-testers are much more likely to see an effect is attractions that didn't have FP- but will have FP+ for the test. How much of effect will be determined by two factors:

Ratio of FP+ to standby
and
How many less people are in standy because they have FP+.

For instance, on POTC: if they make 1 line completely FP+, and the other standby, then the standby will move half as fast. But, if the standby line is only half as long (because they got FP+ instead, and don't ride a second time that day) then wait time in standby will be the same.

Despite this cautious optimism on my part, this Aug test is making me anxious about my Aug trip. Hopefully, reports on Aug 4 will make me feel much better.

 

[WillAustin]

Our MagicBands have shipped and will be delivered Monday. We are staying at the Contemporary beginning August 13th. I haven't received any email, call, or UPS package about opting in for any test.

 

[Cupmom]

Ordered my bands on Tuesday. Yesterday they said they were ready to be shipped and no more changes could be made and today.. I got a email saying they have shipped via UPS and the tracking number says they will be at my doorstep on Monday!. I have not received an email prior saying I was part of the test group. I check in at the YC on 8/16 so maybe at the 17 day mark I will get the official email.

 

[mrsg00fy]

After seeing all the posts about the Magic Bands, I logged into MDE to see what it looked like. We will be at Yacht Club starting August 17th. There was an ability to customize the bands.....but then I could not undo/ cancel the order. I was not able to link, FP+ as we purchased the $399 DVC passes and we will not activate them until the 17th.

I don't think that we will want to link those passes or do the FP+. Because I customized the Magic Bands but could not figure out how to undo this, are we stuck? I think that we can just use the regular fast passes if we don't link our annual passes when we activate them. Does this sound right?

 

[Simba's Girl]

First, unlike previous tests, Disney does not seem to be advertising the fact that double dipping will be available for this test. So, even if double dipping is available, maybe only a small % of "insiders" will know to double dip. The rest will, essentially, be taking the FPs they would be taking anyway, just in advance. Now, the impact becomes a function of whether 3/4 is < or > the average number of fastpasses used/day by resort guests (including those that don't take any FP- in this average).

Personally, I am hoping we can "double dip"...we are at YC for the test 2 days before joining our family in a GV at SSR for a week. I would love to be able to use FP- for when we are with family. As it stands now I have FP+ reserved for the whole trip because I don't know if I can choose to use FP- *only* those days or not or weather some of my family can use FP+ and some can use FP- (my older 2 would probably rather tour with their cousins and DH and I and DD6 could be together or with his sister, bil and parents)...but then again perhaps this is part of the testing-y/k? Oh and no email yet, but we are 25 days out still.

Our MagicBands have shipped and will be delivered Monday. We are staying at the Contemporary beginning August 13th. I haven't received any email, call, or UPS package about opting in for any test.

Us too...at YC 8/14 got an email about our bands shipping this morning...two sets b/c of a continuing reservation-strange since I thought that MBs were supposed to be reusable?

I keep telling myself that that is why this is a test...

 

[WillAustin]

two sets b/c of a continuing reservation-strange since I thought that MBs were supposed to be reusable?

I keep telling myself that that is why this is a test...

Two sets for us too. The AP room rates changed in the middle of trip, so we have two reservations at CR.

We will also be at AKV before the "eligible" portion of our trip. I wonder if the bands will be active at any point during those days.

 

[TIME4DIZ]

We are staying at YC and arrive on 8/17. I customized my bands 4 days ago when I first saw the pop up. The status of the bands went from shipping soon to your bands have shipped and I received an email this morning from disney destinations notifying that the bands have shipped via UPS along with tracking info.
I checked MDE website and App and they both indicate that my entire party has an assigned band, complete with a Band ID number. I have the option of 'managing' each band. At this time, managing is limited to activating or deactivating a given band or reporting it as lost.
My guess is that if I book a future trip I can link this band to that reservation via the id number.
At this point I have not received an email about the test itself. I assume that will come at 17 days out.

 

[KELLY]

My Magic bands have shipped and will be here on Monday via ups. I did get a email saying they were shipped. I do have 2 separate shipments for 2 different reservations. I think I only needed one set but I didn't realize that until it was to late.

 

[MYD714]

Does anyone know how I find out if my bands have shipped or when they'll arrive?

Yesterday the WDW website said that my bands were being processed and were shipping soon. Today it just says "choose a magic band and check its status" and when I click on a band it says "this band is active" but doesn't give any shipping info.

 

[WillAustin]

Does anyone know how I find out if my bands have shipped or when they'll arrive?

Yesterday the WDW website said that my bands were being processed and were shipping soon. Today it just says "choose a magic band and check its status" and when I click on a band it says "this band is active" but doesn't give any shipping info.

You should have received email notification that they shipped. The email comes from Disney Destinations. Maybe check your junk mail folder.

 

[DonaldDoleWhip]

I received the shipping email too (but not an invite email yet - we arrive on the 12th). I hope we don't have to sign for the UPS package, since we won't be at home during the day.

 

[Rheinhold]

At the Contemporary on the 15th through the 19th and also got the email: UPS delivery Monday. I'm very excited about this. My first day especially since I got to reserve 4 late FP+ for MK. My son and I are big park hoppers though. That's the only drawback. But thanks to listening to all you helpful people I think are strategy is going to be do RD at one park, stay until about noon, do our FP+ park, eat dinner and then head over to MK which is open to 11 each night.

 

[Disneylover99]

I just got off the phone with tech support and this is what I learned....

-not everyone staying at the test resorts will be chosen to participate in fastpass+

-if you have ordered your bands and chosen your fastpasses now that's okay, but you still may not be chosen unless you receive an email

-tech support did not know about the whole getting an email 17 days before the trip, he just said you have to get an email to participate

-you will have access to regular fastpass....I asked if I had to use all my fastpass+ first, I was told I could use regular fastpass at anytime since we will also be getting a key to the world card

-I asked about dining credits and the magic band....I was told I could, for example order four snacks for my family without having them physically be there to scan their magic bands, so I could scan them all off on my own band

So there you have it....my experience with Tech support.

 

[mom2rtk]

I just got off the phone with tech support and this is what I learned....

-not everyone staying at the test resorts will be chosen to participate in fastpass+

-if you have ordered your bands and chosen your fastpasses now that's okay, but you still may not be chosen unless you receive an email

-tech support did not know about the whole getting an email 17 days before the trip, he just said you have to get an email to participate

-you will have access to regular fastpass....I asked if I had to use all my fastpass+ first, I was told I could use regular fastpass at anytime since we will also be getting a key to the world card

-I asked about dining credits and the magic band....I was told I could, for example order four snacks for my family without having them physically be there to scan their magic bands, so I could scan them all off on my own band

So there you have it....my experience with Tech support.

Thanks for the report.

Still loving that consistent message.

 

[Rosanne]

Unfortunately for me, your numbers do seem reasonable. And, unlike some PPs, I do think the % of eligible testers that participate will be extremely high, and you can not compare with % of guests that don't use FP-. The reason: no one has ever received a personal inviation via UPS (and email) to collect FP-. Most people who get these letters will participate in FP+ (and it seems, EVERYONE who is eligible is getting them at 17 days). And, people will be choosing 3 (who would stop at 1 or 2) and many also getting the POTC bonus (though most probably won't know they could change it).

However, it may not necessarily be a game changer.

First, unlike previous tests, Disney does not seem to be advertising the fact that double dipping will be available for this test. So, even if double dipping is available, maybe only a small % of "insiders" will know to double dip. The rest will, essentially, be taking the FPs they would be taking anyway, just in advance. Now, the impact becomes a function of whether 3/4 is < or > the average number of fastpasses used/day by resort guests (including those that don't take any FP- in this average).

Second, we have to assume Disney will put limits on FP+ availability for this test, given the size. Could you imagine what would happen if TSM FP- ran out before 9:30? And, then imagine if all those rope drop people KNEW FP- was going to run out by 9:30! There really would be riots with people trying to run over each other to get TSM FP. Disney CAN NOT EVER LET ANYTHING LIKE THIS HAPPEN as long as FP- exists. They know this. Also, there must be FP- available at each interval (imagine putting a families tickes in FP machines, and half the family gets 1:00 - 2:00, and other half 2:30-3:30). Besides, even though Aug FP+ has only been available for 2 days, we've already heard of FP+ not being available at hoped for times. It'll be interesting to see what FP+ availability is the day before (hopefully someone will post this).

I think where us non-testers are much more likely to see an effect is attractions that didn't have FP- but will have FP+ for the test. How much of effect will be determined by two factors:

Ratio of FP+ to standby
and
How many less people are in standy because they have FP+.

For instance, on POTC: if they make 1 line completely FP+, and the other standby, then the standby will move half as fast. But, if the standby line is only half as long (because they got FP+ instead, and don't ride a second time that day) then wait time in standby will be the same.

Despite this cautious optimism on my part, this Aug test is making me anxious about my Aug trip. Hopefully, reports on Aug 4 will make me feel much better.

Helpful thoughts. If only we knew. The ability to double dip wouldn't bother me if

A. The testing group was smaller.

or

B. The double-dipping was connected so that the actual number of FP able to be taken were about the same as those with FP-. Some have said they would be able to double-dip but not in the same time window as pre-scheduled rides. That seems reasonable to me since I don't think having FP+ should be a disadvantage to the testers. Being able to double-dip either after the scheduled FP+ or outside the time windows would still give them an advantage but one that would less affect the overall impact on non-testers.

 

[niccikatie]

Thanks for the report.

Still loving that consistent message.

Exactly. It's stunning (even if expected) how much the message varies wildly. I just can't imagine they'd go to all the trouble/expense to ship out MagicBands to non-testers.

The only thing I find a bit peculiar is that if I don't receive an invitation until Aug 1st (we arrive on the 17th) my customization window had closed per the MDX site. That is a bit weird. It'll be interesting to see who comes on here that didn't know about it until the invite comes. I wonder if they'll be able to customize or be stuck with gray.

 

[MYD714]

Just checked my email and I got the email that says my bands will be here Monday.

The new gmail set up is what confused me. It automatically sent my WDW email to the new "promotions" section of my inbox. Thanks for the mini heart attack, gmail!