latest thoughts on Ivan?

[Magickndm]

It seems a lot of people overlook the meaning of prediction here. The weather forecasters are trying to figure out where the hurricane may go, not telling us where it will go. Charley is a perfect example of this.
There's no reason to panic at this point since this storm can literally wind up anywhere, but it is important for those in the forecasted area to be prepared. I would like to urge those of you who have trips planned, and it seems very likely the storm will come here, to please think of rebooking. The people here will need every resource available, from gas to water, to ice to milk. I cannot imagine why staying at WDW seems fun at a time like this. Traffic is horrendous, both when Floridians are evacuating, then the trip coming back home. The fewer people on the roads, the better.
My child has been out of school since last Friday because of Frances, many people here still don't have power and our grocery stores are still not well stocked. I just can't imagine this state getting hit again.

 

[PneumaticTransit]

I agree that it is too soon to tell where Ivan will hit, but I agree with the poster who said the news media needs to settle down a bit. I live in the Kissimmee/Poinciana are in Florida and Charley was my first hurricane. Although the local weather stations advised to take precautions, no one was taking them seriously. I moved everything outside to my garage, and that was the extent of my prepardeness. Luckily, my home is less that 2 years old, concrete block reinforced with rebar, and has built in hurricane straps and I did not sustain ANY damage. As for Downtown Kissimmee... you could not tell there were even roads between the houses. It was piles shingles, mobile homes, and trees everywhere - so living inland does not mean hurricanes cannot do major damage.
When Frances was predicted to hit again through Central Florida - the news media did a 180. From the dark foreboding music that they play every 5 minutes with images of hurricane winds and frenzied meterologist scaring the bejesus out of everyone. I realize they want people to take this seriously, but they were causing panic. Days before the storm, people were running stop lights, cutting you off in traffic, and threating bodily harm at the gas stations. They had to police escort gas tankers and semi trucks carrying plywood.
Luckily, Frances did not do very much damage in the WDW/Kissimmee area. I figure that everything that was going to blow down, blew down in Charley. The day after Frances you couldn't really even tell there had been a storm. I'm not saying it wasn't bad, the winds at my house were sustain at 90mph, but damage was very minimal.
As for your Disney Vacation, I wouldn't cancel yet. It isn't forecasted to hit Florida until Tuesday - and a LOT can change between now and then.
On a side note, I do know what your going through. I was scheduled to visit Minnesota September 3 -7 and my flight was cancelled. I have rescheduled for September 15 - 19, and now I face the very real possibility that that flight will be cancelled too. It is an inconvience, but things could be a lot worse. Be thankful that you're able to take your family to Disney, even if you have to reschedule - many people cannot afford to take vacations let alone come to WDW.

 

[DB Washington]

Folks, I don't mean to underplay the destructive power of a hurricane or diminish the suffering that Floridians are experiencing right now due to the loss of homes and livelihoods. I know what it's like to go for days without power, food shortages, debris in the road, and fuel shortages. I recently lived through Allison (which was technically a tropical storm, but very destructive due to flooding) and have been through at least 10 hurricanes in my 30 years of living on the Gulf Coast.

Let me restate, if a category 5 hurricane was headed my way I'd think twice about going on a vacation in that area. However, let's be balanced in how we look at this. Hurricanes can do a lot of property damage, folks can get killed by flooding, tornados, debris - but deaths from hurricanes in the US are not typically high in relation to the population over which they pass. I would say from my personal observation that deaths typically occur in areas close to the coast, areas that are experiencing flooding, or in structures that are not made of a solid building material like brick. In Louisiana and Texas for instance we have had many tornados from Hurricanes and storms over the years inland which did not result in someone's death.

I can't remember any of the hurricanes I've lived through hovering over us for more than a day. It stinks if you have a vacation planned and a hurricane comes, but do you cancel an 8 day vacation because of 1 to 2 days of scary weather? I've gone on vacations where hurricanes were predicted that never materialized and I've gone on vacations where there was "no chance" of a hurricane coming toward the vacation spot that turned and came our way.

Some might scoff at the views I express. I hope folks can accept a point of view that differs from their own without taking this as a personal affront. None of these observations are meant to diminish the experiences of individuals who have been through some terrible hurricanes.

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

Originally posted by Magickndm
It seems a lot of people overlook the meaning of prediction here. The weather forecasters are trying to figure out where the hurricane may go, not telling us where it will go. Charley is a perfect example of this.

I would like to urge those of you who have trips planned, and it seems very likely the storm will come here, to please think of rebooking.

As you said in the first paragraph above there is no way of knowing what will happen.

I will take my chances and hope for the best. The locals have my complete sympathy, don't get me wrong, but sorry, I am not rebooking on a "maybe" or even "likely". We won't know what happens until it happens. You said it yourself, the forecasters are GUESSING. As I said in an earlier post on this thread Andrew was "supposed" to devastate my town a few years ago and it ended up virtually passing us by.

 

[pumpkinfish]

DB Washington
I know where you are coming from and highly agree with you. We are still going, but if we need to leave, we won't think twice.

I guess what I am afraid of is not being in the comfort of my own hown IF a hurricane comes. Like you, I have lived through a few hurricanes myself, but all from my home. It won't feel right if one comes when I am not at home. I just want to make sure I am prepared to live through one if I am NOT at home.

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

Originally posted by DB Washington

I can't remember any of the hurricanes I've lived through hovering over us for more than a day. It stinks if you have a vacation planned and a hurricane comes, but do you cancel an 8 day vacation because of 1 to 2 days of scary weather? I've gone on vacations where hurricanes were predicted that never materialized and I've gone on vacations where there was "no chance" of a hurricane coming toward the vacation spot that turned and came our way.

Some might scoff at the views I express. I hope folks can accept a point of view that differs from their own without taking this as a personal affront. None of these observations are meant to diminish the experiences of individuals who have been through some terrible hurricanes. [/B]

Thank you for posting this. I felt very alone in my feelings on this topic. I agree with all you wrote.

 

[Magickndm]

I can't remember any of the hurricanes I've lived through hovering over us for more than a day.

So you didn't notice how long Frances sat or how slow it moved after it finally got moving? I assure you, it stuck around much longer than a day.
I did not say cancel your plans, I just wanted to point out the shortage of food and gas all over, if you want to add to it, that's your perogative.

 

[SRUAlmn]

We are leaving on the 17th and driving down from Baltimore, so I'm also interested to see the path Ivan will take once he hits land. Driving 14 hours in torential rain will not be fun. I really hope it misses FL. Not that I wish ill will on anyone in New Orleans or Texas, I just think FL residents have had ENOUGH. My co-worker is going on her honeymoon next week in Jamaica so we have been on the phone this morning with her travel agents finding out what will happen if Jamaica isn't there next week- YIKES

 

[stina]

I too am concerned about IVAN.
I am scheduled to fly from Hartford, CT to Orlando this Sat. the 11th. Then on to AKL Sat. morning. I am still planning on going unless the airport is closed or I have to cancel because several days of destructive weather is certain. I don't know what else to do.

Last year I went to WDW at this exact same time. In fact it was predicted during that week that a hurricane was coming right at Orlando. It was all over the news and everything. Nothing ever happened. The 8 days I was there were non stop sunshine, not even any rain.

Let's hope that's the case again, for all those poor Floridians.

Like IDRATHERBEINWDW posted, I can't cancel a trip planned months ago on a big what if.

 

[RichmondTiggerFan]

I'm supposed to go down to WDW 9/13-9/16 and I've been really watching where Ivan goes. As for living inland, Richmond, VA is around 80 miles from the coast and during Isabel, we had strong winds, lots of uprooted trees, and massive power outages (some people were out for 1-2 weeks). Also, about 1 1/2 weeks ago, we had the remnants of Gaston dump about 11 inches of rain in about eight hours time. This caused massive flooding in parts of downtown Richmond and washed out a lot of roads in the surrounding counties.

 

[Ted and Holly]

I am not saying that it WILL come here and I am not saying that you WILL have a bad vacation. Just warning that you need to seriously consider the chances that it CAN come here.

Keep in mind, also that if you are here and Ivan does turn towards Florida, there is very little time for you to be able to comfortably leave, especially if you drove.

I moved here a little over a year ago. I moved from New England where the worst tropical weather we get is rain and breeze left over from the storms in the South. I am not going to move away because of this year's hurricane season, but I am not going to blindly go about my life without thinking of the future.

Years ago, they didn't have radar or satellites. People would get surprised by these storms and a lot more damage was done and people killed.

Now that we have the technology, try to think of it as a better educated guess than the old "my knee is aching, it is going to rain" deal.

I know it is too early to tell where Ivan will go. Heck, Charley made a change in direction just a couple hours before it made landfall in Charlotte County. You never know where a hurricane will go, you can only tell accurately where it WENT. That is the whole point of these threads. "latest thoughts on Ivan?"

My thought is: "I don't know where it is going or how strong it will be when it gets there. I do know that IF it goes through Central Florida, it CAN do damage and POTENTIALLY kill people. Having said this, if you have any hesitation or doubts, postpone. If you stick your head in the sand and hope that if you ignore it, it will disappear, you are fooling yourself."

To all in this thread who are planning to come here in the next week or so. I REALLY hope Ivan goes elsewhere or fizzles out. I know how much planning and anticipation goes into a trip to WDW. AND having kids join in that planning and anticipation sets you up for heartbreak at the thought of cancelling.

To all the Florida people in this thread, yes, we have had enough. I think I can speak for all of us when I say, "Ok, ok! Mother Nature, we believe you!"

Ted

 

[bajanswife]

If this were a small cat 2 or less hurricane, I wouldn't be that concerned - the level of devastation and the potential for loss of life are much less with a hurricane like that if you are in a safe hotel room at WDW. BUT ..... Ivan is a terrible, terrible storm. I don't know if any of you have read reports from Grenada or seen pictures, but over 90% of their houses are severely damaged as a result of Ivan, and Ivan wasn't yet a Cat 5! Also, many of the damaged houses were concrete - we're not talking flimsy wood here! Some walls of the concrete prison collapsed and prisoners have escaped. The prime Minister's house is destroyed - and he's Head of State (like the President), he didn't live in a tiny, flimsy house either! This hurricane is nothing to play with. Hurricanes don't usually scare me too much, but this one does. It barely missed my island and went on to devastate Grenada, and I will never again take such a storm lightly.

Obviously each person has to make their own decision about this, but please take the threat seriously. If you do go, make sure you can afford to get out by whatever means are necessary (i.e. fly first class if there's nothing else). Don't get caught down there.

 

[panthergirl]

Here's some information on preparations for Ivan. Looks like the NFL is taking this seriously.

Titans-Dolphins game moved to Saturday


(Sept. 9, 2004) -- To accommodate the Miami community in preparing to deal with the approach of Hurricane Ivan, the Miami Dolphins' home game against the Tennessee Titans has been rescheduled for Saturday, Sept. 11, at 1 p.m. ET at Pro Player Stadium. The game originally was scheduled to be played on Sunday, Sept. 12, at 1 p.m. ET.

Moving the game to Saturday will enable emergency personnel and others in the Miami community to focus on preparing for the approach of Hurricane Ivan. The game is sold out and will be televised in the Miami and Tennessee home territories by CBS

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

Originally posted by bajanswife
If this were a small cat 2 or less hurricane, I wouldn't be that concerned - the level of devastation and the potential for loss of life are much less with a hurricane like that if you are in a safe hotel room at WDW. BUT ..... Ivan is a terrible, terrible storm. I don't know if any of you have read reports from Grenada or seen pictures, but over 90% of their houses are severely damaged as a result of Ivan, and Ivan wasn't yet a Cat 5!

If we are going by the predictions Ivan is supposedly going to downgrade to 4 or less by tomorrow.

Plus WDW properties were built to withstand strong hurricanes. I may eat my words and all of WDW may be blown off the map but I strongly doubt it.

And again this is still all a big IF. It is too soon to make any decisions on what will happen further than a day or so out. If anyone has been tracking this storm the "predictions" change every few hours.

 

[RoLaren]

We decided to postpone our trip till November. It cost a couple hundred dollars to do so, but if it's bad or even just unhappy (hotel lockdown) in WDW early next week, we don't want to be there.

I could not knowingly put my child in the path of a storm like this, even just a potential path.

People say "if it's just a 1 or 2" but there is no way to know what it will be okay at WDW. But wasn't Charley at 2 when it went through central FL?

If our trip was a couple days out, I would hold out to cancel till the last minute. That is what we did thru Frances. But we were due to fly out tomorrow morning and had to make a decision, and this is the one we're comfortable with.

So we'll be down during super soap weekend, oh boy LOL Wonder how the parks are that weekend.

Stay safe, everyone, please. To those in FL, my heart is just sick worried for you all. If our original plan had happened we'd be living in Kissimmee right now, (dh lost job here in the midwest so that changed the plan) but now, the idea of moving to FL scares me.

Bless you all...

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

Here's some fairly promising news from Accuweather:

"Ivan Most Likely to Affect the Gulf of Mexico

Ivan has two basic track options as it heads farther west-northwestward. One option is that it curves northward toward the Bahamas and southeastern U.S. coast. This is less likely because the high pressure steering Ivan is expected to remain strong over the southeastern U.S., which would steer the storm northwestward. The second and more likely option takes the storm into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday."

I copied and pasted the above from the site below, which also has a tracking map:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2

But again, it's too soon to make anything but educated guesses farther out than the next day or so.

 

[kseely]

i'm with you RoLaren! i can't bring my child INTO florida when everyone else is clammering to get out. a friend of mine who has a house in marathon fl (the keys) said we would be absolutely nuts to go into fl this weekend. he was happy he is in NJ...and while i was on the phone w/ the airline, the rep. told me she was getting calls all day asking what flights were available to get out of FL, and they didn't care how much they were....... and these weren't from any 1 specific area, she said it was from all over FL...

if you CAN reschedule, then do it.

If not, then go & take your chances. (and have a good time!!!)

we pushed back for 1 week. from sept 17-25th because we could. Actually saved $ on airfare (believeitornot!)
BUT i would say that if we could NOT do it, then we'd go......but fully knowing there was danger ahead, and i'm sure i'd be a ball of nerves the whole time thinking of what was to come, therefore i'd not really be having any fun........

 

[daisylove]

A few thoughts from a life long south Floridian.
First please remember that Andrew was a 5 and they have already said that Ivan is stronger than Andrew maybe the strongest.
Second, Grenada did not have the strict building codes that were put into effect with Andrew. That does not change the horrible devastation there but do not think that because the prime minister's house was destroyed there that it will absoluteley be the same with Ivan here.
Third. It could be the same if the storm is strong enough.
Fourth. Yes, they say it could weaken over Cuba. But it can also strengthen after it leaves Cuba as Charley did. Remember when the storms get this powerful they MAKE their OWN ( not shouting just emphasis. :0)) weather and steering currents. That is what Andrew did. Storms this big really are a force on their own. If it weakens then the forcasters have a better chance of accuracy than if it stays as strong.
Last: Please just everyone pay attention and be careful.
For those of you traveling in remember that gas is still iffy. There are still no eggs and various supplied because of the areas that were hit by Francie and Charley can't allow supplies through or are getting them first. I went to WDW the week after Charleya nd stayed on property. You could not tell there was a storm Staying on or off property now after 2 possibly 3 storms may be different. Use your best judgment and good luck to all.

 

[daisylove]

Sorry forgot to report that the Florida Keys have already begun total evacuation just in case due to the stregth of this storm.

 

[frndofpooh]

We are leaving on Saturday night, to arrive at WDW on Sunday morning. Although we are not canceling our long-planned and long-anticipated vacation, we will prepare for the possibility that Ivan strikes WDW by being cautious and making preparations. Part of that means filling up our car with gas when we arrive on Sunday morning and long before Ivan would possibly arrive. Ideally, we'd like to fill up in Orlando so that we have a full tank, rather than our typical fill-up in Georgia just before entering Florida. For anyone who knows, is gas again widely available throughout the Orlando area, or should we plan to fill-up a little further north?