latest thoughts on Ivan?

[safetymom]

If Ivan is predicted to impact the Orlando area who knows what the gas supply will be. By then the locals will be filling up their gas tanks.

 

[bajanswife]

Wooden houses in the Caribbean are quite flimsy, and will sustain damage even in a tropical storm. However, the norm in the Caribbean for concrete/stone houses is to dig a good, deep foundation and reinforce the walls with steel. When Ivan recently devastated Grenada, it destroyed many well-built concrete houses! It destroyed part of a prison (also made of stone). There are many houses in Florida without steel reinforcement or solid concrete walls. It is folly to think that the damage in Grenada cannot happen in a developed country. Not saying it WILL - just that if Ivan remains such a deadly storm, anything COULD happen. Disney may have built their structures to withstand a powerful hurricane, but get one weak point and a whole roof could go. Or, a tree could crash through your window. There are any number of things that could happen, not to mention the horrendous aftermath to get through even if you remain safe for the duration of the hurricane itself.

I really hope Ivan does not hit Florida. Structures are already weakened and are more vulnerable, and the ground must be pretty saturated (making flooding a huge risk). All those who do decide to go down, please be prepared! And good luck to those who live there or have family/friends/property there. GO AWAY IVAN!

 

[safetymom]

I got this in an email today.

Dear Ivan:

Hey, how's it going out there near Barbados?

Listen, lots of us here in Florida have been talking
about your scheduled visit.

Now, please don't take this the wrong way. We like
spectacular forces of nature as well as the next guy. We realize that
Florida and hurricanes go together like country music and drunken driving.
We don't want to mess with tradition.

And we know you hurricanes recharge the aquifers, provide an exhilarating break in the stifling heat of late summer, and give neighbors a chance to bond. The economic boost you give to Home Depot alone is enough to make up for whatever inconvenience is to be expected.

So normally you would be as welcome as a gang of Harley riders during Bike Week.

But may I say that this year the timing of your tentatively scheduled arrival seems less than ideal.

You know that visitors start to wear out their welcome after a few days. And too many visitors in a row can also wear down a host and hostess. That, I'm sorry to say, is pretty much the position we Floridians find ourselves in just now.

Your cousin Charley blew through a few weeks ago and, to be blunt, he was less than mannerly. He zoomed in like a hyperactive toddler, leaving the proverbial path of destruction, except that it was no proverb. And then he was gone without so much as a see-ya-later.

Charley was a leave-wet-towels-on-the-floor, never-pick-up-a-tab kind of guest. He inspired some grumbling, and picking up after him has been a real chore. You should have seen Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Arcadia and Wauchula.

At least Charley didn't stay long. But just when we were starting to get things almost back to normal, Frances sauntered in.

I don't mean to be crass, but she was HUGE. When she hung around the state, she hung around the state, you know what I mean?

And you know how some guests just don't leave? That's Frances. Even when we were looking at our watches and yawning and singing "The Party's Over" she just stayed and stayed.

Some of us who hadn't really rolled out the red carpet for Charley decided to prepare a lot more for Frances, and maybe we just tired ourselves out. And then she stalled and arrived late, which is always irritating.

She wasn't as wild as Charley, I'll admit. Those rumors about Frances possibly becoming a Category 5 turned out to be overblown hype. But she just sort of oozed through. I went to bed Sunday night and woke up thinking she'd be long gone at last, but she was still here Monday morning!

So a lot of us here are thinking that enough is enough for one year. Actually, the experience of almost back-to-back hurricanes has some people talking about canceling hurricane season entirely.

Don't worry. Floridians won't go that far. But we may consider moving hurricane season to a nicer time of year. I know hurricanes like it hot, but doing without air conditioning would be a lot nicer in November, or maybe March, so as not to interfere with football season.

I mean, did you see where Frances actually caused the postponement of a Gator football game? People will put up with a lot, but let's be reasonable here.

Some are saying we should limit the number of hurricanes allowed into Florida in one year. There might be some debate about whether the limit should be one or two, but there is wide agreement that three is too many.

So, Ivan, here's the point: Florida's famous hospitality is pretty much tapped out just now. Our enthusiasm for big winds and rains, and for TV reporters gushing forth with excited descriptions of it all, has bogged down like a riding lawnmower in the swamp that used to be my back yard.

As I said, it is nothing personal, Ivan, but what would you say to making alternate travel plans?

I understand that Mexico is lovely this time of year.

 

[trish1970]

Still too early to tell, but the latest track of Ivan looks like it may miss Florida. Cross your fingers.

edited to add the following cite:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/061453W5.gif

 

[safetymom]

It's still too early to know for sure what the path of Ivan is. Everyone needs to be prepared and keep watching the updates.

I know that no one here is FL is relaxing just yet about this path.

 

[2Disneybuggs]

DH just spoke to his cousin in the Ft Lauerdale area. They just got power back and she booked a plane to come to NY instead of risking meeting Ivan. I hope it somehow just fizzles out.

 

[Leigh123]

Well I started this threat thinking I would be at WDW this Sunday....Ivan got the better of me and yesterday I changed all my flgihts and hotel reservations to the week of 9/19-9/26...I can't not even imagine what you poor FL residents are going through god bless and stay safe....GO AWAY IVAN.

 

[Uncleromulus]

Just musing about our "Frances" weather up here. Predictions (just 12 hours in advance) included floods and 2 to 4 (or more) inches of rain.
We actually got "misted on"--a mild wind driven mist. Total of about 1/4 inch of rain, if that. Not that I'm un-happy-- but look how wrong they were. Same with the previous tropical storm (Gaston). Predictions had us buried under water--turned out we got no rain whatsoever. Not a drop.

Weather forecasting is not an exact science by any means. Which , unfortunately, means everyone has to prepare for the worst case scenario. You just can't be sure if they're right or wrong.
Let's hope IVAN can miss the US altogether.

 

[zalansky]

http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/09L.html

 

[Shelle&Dave]

We are supposed to fly out of Buffalo tomorrow morning at 8:30. We are thinking about cancelling. Right now we are still leaning towards going. It's a tough decision to make. I'm hoping the projected path takes a drastic turn today out to sea somewhere. That's not too much to ask is it?

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

I suppose no one who has been reading my posts will be shocked that I am still going. I'll hope for the best, prepare for the worst. And if nothing else if I miss a day or tour of touring the lines are sure to be short the rest of the time with all the cancellations I am reading about! I have no doubt I will be safe.

 

[Butch50]

Originally posted by idratherbeinwdw
If anyone has been tracking this storm the "predictions" change every few hours.

Amen to that. I have been watching this one closely and the various forecasting models have been all over the map (literally). As of this morning, they are starting to converge more and show a hit somewhere on Fla's Southwest coast.

Here is the problem. Hurricane Ivan hasn't seen those forecast tracks, so he doesn't know where he is supposed to go.

If I were leaving tomorrow and going for more than a couple of days I would go. I figure I would have fun before and after the storm. If I was planning just a weekend trip, I would sit it out. Gas and plane flights might be awfully hard to come by if you are trying to leave WDW early next week.

 

[Flibbity]

The latest computer spaghetti models have all but 4 of them hitting Florida in some fashion...

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp

We really don't need this. EveryonE pray that the hurricane stays away!

 

[Shelle&Dave]

I vote for that short little pink path on the left that ends up in the middle of nowhere.

So far we are going. I'm going to run to Walmart here pretty soon to get a haircut and pick up last minute things.

Right now I'm painting my toenails.

 

[CJK]

Well, it looks like either we go on the trip or we swallow our airline tickets and hotel. Both our airline and priceline will not refund or better yet, transfer, our money unless our flight is grounded. Along with everyone else, all I can do is hope for the best.

 

[Ted and Holly]

According to one local meterologist, the UKMET model seems to have been pretty accurate with the last two storms.

Problem is, Ivan is breaking a LOT of rules.

I hope it dies an early death. I really do NOT want a convertible apartment.

Ted

 

[issa]

some of you may be right..it may miss us

come on down and help our economy...and I hope you are right in the process.

All this talk of the weather men being wrong..dont trust them, lies what ever. Hype.

That may in times be true..they work the best they can i assume with something that is unpredicatable.

do what you wish with your own family, I myself live here and am soooo thankful to those weather men. To my friends that said it was hype.. they were forced to evacuate for frances...I am glad they did..dispite thier grumbling...they no longer have a home.

so many are still in shelters.... in lines waiting for food..water...help.

This is serious down here. People are hurting and if another one comes through..perhaps you wont even be able to tell the diffrence in your vacation besides a day of fun and games inside the hotel.

The area around you could be weeping. The gas lines were horrible. fighting over water is a bad feeling and though you might not deal with that inside disney..doesnt mean its not going on or not a big deal. As far as I am concered channel 9 rocks.... they were the frist to report charley changing paths and gave orlando a chance to prepare.....and we watched and listen to them all night as francis stumbled through as they watched for tornadoes..telling people when to go to safety.

thats another thing....its not just the hurricane...its the tornadoes..and to be sure..they scare me even more.

I sorry..i taken this to heart too much... everyday we learn more and more of the destruction... and there truly is FEAR here about ivan..to say casually, they coul dbe wrong..its no big deal..blow over in a day.....

People are crying a lot more than a day here

 

[Local_Girl]

Well, that's it...our trip is officially off. We waited until early this morning to decide. It's just not looking good...Ivan is probably going to hit FL somewhere. We were only going to have 5 full days in Orlando anyway, and with a hurricane probably slicing through the middle of that, and 4 full days of driving (2 on either side)...it's just not worth it. And that isn't even taking into consideration the safety of our family, the impact our stay in Central FL might have on valuable resources needed for residents (our need for gas, water, etc.), or the problem we might have coming back home should there be gas shortages, flooding, road damage, etc.

Again, our thoughts and prayers are with all Floridians as you hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

 

[safetymom]

I think you made a wise decision. I am sure you will be welcomed back once everyone recovers from the hurricane here.

I know it is tough to postpone your trip but you did the right thing.

 

[Local_Girl]

Thanks, Safetymom...I think we're doing the right thing too. Thank goodness we were keeping it as a surprise from the kids so only DH and I have to be disappointed! And we WILL return!

Best of luck to you and your family...hope Ivan fizzles in the Gulf and spares the west coast and central FL.