latest thoughts on Ivan?

[Tiffany]

Originally posted by Leigh123
First off god bless FL residents for what they have endured and we pray for everyone's safety concerning Ivan. We are due to fly in around 2:00 on 9/12.....what is anyone's latest guess on IVAN having any impact on WDW? I am so confused on all the reports I can't figure out what's going on....thanks in advance.

Hi,
No need to guess. We are arriving about 9:30am on Saturday morning, Sept. 11th. Keep an eye on www.noaa.com

 

[pumpkinfish]

Well, all I know is that DH and I are still coming!!! Just packing an extra flashlight with batteries, a couple gallons of water, and our electric lantern....

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

I'm on the way regardless. If Ivan impacts the area while I'm there I'll just stay at the resort and be glad I'm safe at the happiest place on earth. I'd rather be at Walt Disney World in the rain then in the sun anywhere else!

 

[twoksmom]

I'm with you guys.I'd rather be ther than anywhere,but dh doesn't feel the same.I just hope to get him down there and hope for the best.April

 

[missyc]

Originally posted by F5CHASER
As a degreed meteorologist, I can say that the track of Ivan is very difficult to get a hold on. The numerical-based computer models are all over the place on a forecast for Ivan. I happen to believe that Florida will probably be in the clear on Ivan as Ivan will more likely affect the central or western Gulf Coast such as New orleans or some of the TX gulf cities.

That being said, Floridians still need to keep a watchful eye and pay attention to Ivan.

I wonder how much of this is media hype? Not the above poster, but the track to Florida. I know it's out there, and COULD hit here, but most of the models show it avoiding Florida. And, after the past month, isn't it more interesting to imagine florida getting slammed once again?
It's so soon to try to predict. Right now I wonder if they just aren't going for the most drama? I won't be surprised either way.

 

[Leigh123]

Wow now it looks as if it is going to land smack dab in the middle of FL on Tuesday.....anyone else think its a good idea to change ressies?

 

[Uncleromulus]

Was watching the good old Weather Channel this AM--the weather lady was waving her arms in hysterical fashion (covering almost all of the entire South and Southeast US) and saying anywhere from New Orleans to Miami could get hit.

In other words, they haven't a clue (yet) as to where Ivan will go.

 

[DisneyShack]

Ivan is very impressive right now (160 mph winds). Uncleromulus is right...they have no clue exactly where it is going to hit. It is just human nature to want to know right NOW where it is going but were still 2-3 days from having that pinpointed on the map. Watch the updates at 5 am/pm and 11 am/pm as that is when the storm track models are updated. Stay safe everyone...especially those in Florida.

 

[Threehearts]

Why does the weather channel make broadreaching statements with a definite hysterical overtone? When Isabel hit us in the DC area, I was alone with 2 little kids and no power for 8 days, home damage etc.. What I needed prior to landfall was calm updates on proper preparation and forecasting to the best of their ability. My kids tuned in without my knowledge the day before Isabel hit and they still talk about how they thought they were going to die. I don't dispute the horrors for Floridians and others who have lived through the trauma of a hurricane or that people do die, I just wish the weather channel would deliver this news in a responsible fashion. Threehearts

 

[eleanor]

The stormtracker this am has it going right up the centre of Florida on the west side of Lake Okechopee(sp?) I hope they are really wrong.

 

[alloyd1170]

Dont think that even if youre inland your safe. I live smack in the middle of SC and on Tuesday as the remanants of Frances came through here, we had a record # of tornados all over the state. 41 reports of tornados throughout the day and night. Seems like every few minutes there was a new warning posted. We also had almost 9"of rain in my area.

alison

 

[disneyvoice]

UUUUGGGHHHH!!

I am getting so stressed out about the hurricane situation and I don't even live in Florida (I feel so selfish!!!).

I have absolutely no background in weather forecasting so I don't know whether this is a valid question or not but how the heck do the weather reports know that a hurricane will make a right hand turn toward Florida instead of heading straight toward Texas????

I keep wondering if the news reporters are just trying to sensationalize poor Florida's situation by getting everyone all stressed out about another one. Of course, I guess it could have something do with wind currents or some such thing that leads them to predict it will turn right, but it just seems odd to me.

We are scheduled to leave for Orlando on the 19th. My fiance and I REALLY need a vaction so he has convinced me that if the hurricane situation looks bad the weekend we are supposed to leave that we will still take our vacation but we just won't go to WDW. We have another trip scheduled in December with my son so we would still get there this year, but this month's trip is supposed to be an adult only, 8 night stay at the Poly. I will be sooooooo sad if we don't go. There is go again, being selfish and thinking of my own vacation while the poor Floridians are once again wondering if their home will be left standing!!!

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

OK, everyone take a deep breath! There is really no way of knowing what Ivan is going to do. I am sure everyone here has experience with the weatherman (or woman LOL) being wrong. Computer models are just that--models and they only can predict possibilities. We can wring our hands and panic, or we can just watch and wait. Hurricanes have a mind of their own, and like all weather nothing is written in stone.

An example: I live on Long Island. Hurricane Andrew caused major damage to a lot of states not too many years ago. It was forecast to do the same to Long Island. But at the last minute it took a turn and all we got was a lot of rain and wind a little stronger than usual. It was nothing more than any other "regular" storm would have done. We lucked out, after preparing for the worst it was quite a relief.

I know how hard it is to be patient. I too would be very disappointed if my trip had to be cancelled. All we can do is hope for the best.

 

[bugbugmom]

As you can tell by my counter. I'm scheduled to fly tomorrow @ 8:45am. We're not sure what to do. I don't want to fly and then unable to get home next weekend. I'll guess we'll wait and see?

 

[Phrank40]

Just a comment on a previous post about being inland from a hurricane, something to the effect you get wind and rain for a day or so and go on with your life.

I live in mountains of NC, city of Asheville. Remnants of Frances gave area over 15 inches of rain in some places. If you have ever visited Asheville picture the Biltmore Village area of the city near the entry to Biltmore House as being under 4-5 feet of water. Many of the roads in area are closed due to flooding, schools are closed, much of Asheville and nearby area has no water due to water lines being washed out and water supply contaminated.

So we will go on with our lives but a lot of residents and business owners won't have a house or business to go back to for awhile.

The aftermath of hurricanes is the great unknown.

Phrank

 

[Ted and Holly]

I agree that you can not panic at the hint of every storm.

But Ivan is a mean one. You need t0 prepare for the worst. The worst, in WDW-terms is a major hurricane AGAIN hitting Central Florida. WDW has been pretty safe, but if Ivan is aimed right and is stronger than Charley or Frances, the worst can be BAD.

Preparing for the worst may just be post-poning your trip.

I have said it before, these are SERIOUS storms.

When I lived in CT and NH, we had some left-overs from hurricanes and tropical storms come through. That was child's play. If I was up there now, planning a trip down here for next week, I would not cancel. I had no idea.

Living down here now, I see what it can do.

I love WDW. I believe that the magic can get you through a lot of tough times. But a hurricane does not care about Magic.

Seriously, why would you want to spend money on a Disney hotel room that you can't leave?

Ted

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

Originally posted by Ted and Holly
I agree that you can not panic at the hint of every storm.


I love WDW. I believe that the magic can get you through a lot of tough times. But a hurricane does not care about Magic.

Seriously, why would you want to spend money on a Disney hotel room that you can't leave?

Ted

How do you know at this point that the storm will hit Orlando? It has changed course so many times in the past few days, there is no way of being sure where Ivan is headed. "Spending money on a hotel room I cannot leave" is merely a possibility at this point.

In any case WDW is prepared for hurricanes. Their buildings are strong and made to withstand the worst storms. I am not panicking because there "may" be a major storm while I am there, and I am not cancelling a much needed trip.

I guess we all have to decide for ourselves what is right and what we are comfortable with. If I cancelled and the storm missed or wasn't that major I'd be VERY sorry. I am taking my chances. This is not the first time I have gone to WDW with the worry of a hurricane. If a hurricane does hit and you read about my death at BWV due to storm damage you can tell me I Told You So when we meet on the other side.

As it is I am going, and I plan to make the best of whatever happens, even if it means "staying in my hotel room" part of the trip. Having a 1 bedroom with a fully stocked kitchen (i buy groceries up on the way from the airport) and a LR with a DVD/VCR, I am sure my kids and I will be safe and comfortable. WDW has their own generators, so I doubt we will lose electricity. Who knows it may be the most exciting WDW ride yet!

 

[Flibbity]

For those of you who think the weather channel is overdramatic, I recommend getting hurricane updates from Florida local websites. The local news-stations here track and use the NOAA models that come out every 6 hours. They will also tell you as much as the weather channel and you don't have to watch commercials if you check online

During Frances, we attempted to watch the weather channel and felt like the focus was too far away from the Hurricane coverage, and there were entirely too many commercials. It was so much easier to track things on the web and watch local news.

Let's all just pray that Ivan goes out into the Atlantic, away from all land. A 3rd hit on Orlando in a month has to be a record setter if it happens!

 

[Local_Girl]

We are scheduled to leave tomorrow afternoon, driving from Michigan. Our plans have been on, off, on, off, etc...and we are now proceeding as if we are going. We will be ready to leave as planned, but will make the final decision tomorrow.

While these hurricanes, especially Ivan, have caused us immense frustration in preparing for our vacation, it pales in comparison to what Floridians and others in the Caribbean are facing with the loss of homes, livelihoods, and loved ones. Our thoughts and prayers are with all of you.

 

[pumpkinfish]

The fuss is being caused by outside sources as well. I know that I almost hung up on my paranoid mother because she kept cautioning me against going. DH and I are grown adults, trying not to get stuck in the middle of a hurricane, but don't need worried mother calling and reminding us. Please don't get me wrong, I LOVE HER very much. We have a special bond....but still. Here I am trying to plan for a relaxing vacation, and it doesn't look like it will be that relaxing.
Which moves me from my complaining, to my preparedness (is that even a word?!?):

Let's help out those of us driving down this weekend. WHAT TO BRING EXTRA TO PREPARE. I already have stated that I will bring extra flashlights and batteries, my coolers, and an electric lantern. What else should people bring, "just in case"? Keep in mind, that DH and I are driving, but most fly...