Iselle Gone; Hurricane Julio Almost Gone, too; UPDATED 8/10/2014

[wdrl]

Iselle is currently a category 3 hurricane in the eastern Pacific and is moving western toward the Hawaiian Islands. Although currently a Cat 3 hurricane, it is weakening and should be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it gets to Hawaii early Friday morning, August 8, 2014. All of the main islands, including Oahu and Aulani, are in the projected paths for Iselle. It looks like it Aulani might be in for some rainy days later this week.

More information and updates are available from NOAA's National Hurricane Center and from Weather Underground.

UPDATE 8/04/2014: Iselle has been upgraded to a category 4 hurricane, but is still expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches the Hawaiian Islands. Iselle's forecast calls for it to reach the Big Island late Thursday, early Friday, and to pass by Oahu and Aulani during the day on Friday.

On the heels of Iselle is another tropical disturbance called Julio. Currently rated as a tropical storm, Julio is about three days behind Iselle and is following a similar path. It is anticipated that Julio will strengthen to category 1 hurricane status by Wednesday, August 6. Its too early to tell whether Julio will hit any of the Hawaiian Islands or how strong it might be if it gets there.

 

[Anal Annie]

Oh heavy sigh. JUST in time for our arrival on Friday.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Oh heavy sigh. JUST in time for our arrival on Friday.

I sure hope your vacation is a great one! Forecasts could be wrong.

 

[ATCMickey]

Kapolei is known to be quite dry compared to the rest of the island. We were there a few weeks ago and while it was pouring on the rest of the island, we were in the sun the whole time. More often than not, the rain doesn't make it to Aulani.

ATCMickey

Oh heavy sigh. JUST in time for our arrival on Friday.

 

[jerseygal]

Hopefully, Iselle passes Aulani!!!!

A few weeks ago, I read that Oahu had ALOT of rain and wind, horrible!
BUT, when I asked on the boards, someone there at that time commented that because Aulani is in the part of Oahu which is usually drier, there was no main rain event at that time!!!

POSITIVE thought for good weather!

SAFE TRAVELS for all traveling this week!

 

[Anal Annie]

Ugggg…now there's another named storm a few days behind Iselle - Julio. Seems to be following a similar path. We are just doomed. This trip was a disaster last year when we had to cancel and now it's going to be another disaster this year. We were not meant to enjoy this trip.

 

[wdrl]

Update Tuesday Morning, August 5, 2014

Hurricane Iselle and Tropical Storm Julio continue to track westward toward the Hawaiian Islands. Iselle is expected to weaken to tropical storm status by the time it reaches the Big Island late Thursday night, August 7. It should be passing Oahu during the day on Friday, August 8, and is forecast to be southwest of Kauai by early Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Julio is following a very similar path as Iselle toward the Hawaiian Islands. It is forecast to strengthen today (Tuesday) to hurricane status. Long range forecasts call for Julio to pass very close to Hawaii on Sunday, August 10, and to be stronger than Iselle.

Normally, tropical disturbances coming from the east tend to weaken before they reach the Hawaiian Islands. Dryer air and cooler sea temperatures east of the Islands usually cause hurricanes to become disorganized and lose intensity. It is the hurricanes that come from the south, such as Iniki in 1992, that tend to maintain strength and pose greater risk to the Islands. Fortunately, only two major hurricanes (Iniki in 1992 and Dot in 1959) have come from the south and hit Hawaii in the last 60 years.

 

[DenLo]

So Iselle is due in Ko Olina/Kapolei area on Friday and Julio is due in on Sunday. And sure enough--rain all weekend. Friday is the only day with 100% rain forecast. I hope the both move further north and miss Aulani.

weather.com
10-Day Forecast for Kapolei, HI
High /
Low (°F) Precip. %
Today
Aug 05 Partly Cloudy 86°/76° 0 %
Wed
Aug 06 Partly Cloudy 85°/75° 10 %
Thu
Aug 07 Showers 86°/77° 40 %
Fri
Aug 08 AM Rain / Wind 81°/77° 100 %
Sat
Aug 09 Showers 86°/77° 40 %
Sun
Aug 10 Showers 84°/76° 70 %
Mon
Aug 11 Showers 87°/77° 50 %
Tue
Aug 12 Partly Cloudy 87°/77° 20 %
Wed
Aug 13 Partly Cloudy 84°/76° 0 %
Thu
Aug 14 Partly Cloudy 84°/77° 20 %
Last Updated Aug 5 05:16 a.m. Hawaii ST

 

[wdrl]

Update Wednesday Morning, August 6, 2014

Updated forecasts from the National Hurricane Center predict that Hurricanes Iselle and Julio continue to track toward the Hawaiian Islands, but now on slightly different paths. Hurricane Iselle's current path has it passing over the Big Island late Thursday night/early Friday morning and staying south of the other islands. Hurricane Julio's forecast shows that it is veering more toward the northwest and should pass on the north side of the Hawaiian Islands beginning Sunday.

Although both Iselle and Julio are currently classified as category 2 and category 1 hurricanes, respectively, they are both expected to weaken to tropical storm status before they pass the Hawaiian Islands. Both storms should bring persistent rain to all the Islands over the weekend.

As an aside, I wonder if Oahu's North Shore will have some strong surf as Julio passes on Sunday and Monday. Extreme caution should be exercised before entering the water, but there may be some spectacular sights to view due to the wave action.

 

[jerseygal]

Update Wednesday Morning, August 6, 2014

Updated forecasts from the National Hurricane Center predict that Hurricanes Iselle and Julio continue to track toward the Hawaiian Islands, but now on slightly different paths. Hurricane Iselle's current path has it passing over the Big Island late Thursday night/early Friday morning and staying south of the other islands. Hurricane Julio's forecast shows that it is veering more toward the northwest and should pass on the north side of the Hawaiian Islands beginning Sunday.

Although both Iselle and Julio are currently classified as category 2 and category 1 hurricanes, respectively, they are both expected to weaken to tropical storm status before they pass the Hawaiian Islands. Both storms should bring persistent rain to all the Islands over the weekend.

As an aside, I wonder if Oahu's North Shore will have some strong surf as Julio passes on Sunday and Monday. Extreme caution should be exercised before entering the water, but there may be some spectacular sights to view due to the wave action.

Lets hope that the storms are mild and everyone at Aulani is safe! What type of information is being given to guests? Have been very fortunate during the summer at WDW except for one time about 11 years ago. Forecast for a hurricane by Orlando was not good. We could not get a flight out of Orlando so drove to Tampa and flew of there and cut vaca short. Much harder to though for long expensive flights out of Honolulu! Keep SAFE!

 

[gjl]

Z

 

[ohana7]

At Aulani now, everyone has been asked to leave the beach by 5 so they can lock down the chairs, pool will be cleared by 8. Cast member said they expect storm to hit tomorrow afternoon and all likelihood that guests will be asked to stay in rooms on Friday. Another lady asked about moving resorts on Friday, and cast member advised that it was unlikely that there would be any movement on the island on Friday as safety comes first.

 

[disneypoor]

At Aulani now, everyone has been asked to leave the beach by 5 so they can lock down the chairs, pool will be cleared by 8. Cast member said they expect storm to hit tomorrow afternoon and all likelihood that guests will be asked to stay in rooms on Friday. Another lady asked about moving resorts on Friday, and cast member advised that it was unlikely that there would be any movement on the island on Friday as safety comes first.

We are here also and haven't been told anything. I even called the front desk this morning and was told they hadn't been told anything. ?? Were you told the pool would be cleared tomorrow night by 8? Thanks!

Susan

 

[DenLo]

See post three regarding the Tropical Storm warning for Oahu. I think it is time to remind members of DVC's Hurricane Policy.

Disney Vacation Club Hurricane Policy Statement


Annually, from June 1 to November 30, in the event a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area, Vero Beach area, Hilton Head Island, Oʻahu or for the Member's place of residence within 7 days before the scheduled arrival date, the Member may call Member Services at (800) ********† or (407) 566-3800† prior to Check-in to cancel or reschedule, based upon availability, their Disney Vacation Club Resort reservation without any cancellation or modification penalty.

Note: This policy pertains to hurricane warnings only. Other weather advisory levels are handled on a case by case basis and Members should contact Member Services.


When does this temporary policy become effective?

The temporary policy is effective in the event a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center no more than 7 days before your scheduled arrival date for the Orlando area, Vero Beach area, Hilton Head Island, Oʻahu or for the Member's place of residence.


What can I do if a hurricane warning is issued?

If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area, Vero Beach area, Hilton Head Island, Oʻahu or for the Member's place of residence no more than 7 days before your scheduled arrival date, you may call Member Services in advance to modify, based on availability, or cancel your Disney Vacation Club Resort reservation without any cancellation or modification penalty.

If you are to be staying on a Member Getaway and a hurricane warning is issued for that destination, please contact Member Services.

 

[DenLo]

From the Weather Channel

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii as Hurricane Iselle sets its sights on America's 50th state.

It's the first hurricane warning issued for the main Hawaiian Islands since Hurricane Fernanda in 1993. If Iselle holds together as a hurricane and makes landfall within the islands, it would be the first hurricane to do so since 1992's Hurricane Iniki.

A tropical storm warning has been hoisted for Maui County, which includes the islands of Maui, Lanai, Kahoolawe and Molokai. The island of Oahu, which includes Honolulu, is also under a tropical storm warning. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Kauai County, which includes the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

Keep in mind DVC will make one on one case decisions as stated in the Hurricane Policy above. I expect if your flight is cancelled to Hawaii DVC will be lenient and allow you to cancel your reservation.

 

[Tinkerjenn]

We are scheduled to arrive on island on Saturday (we were supposed to fly today but changed due to the impending storm), arrival at Aulani on Monday morning....can you keep us posted on what they are saying there? TIA.

 

[wdrl]

Update Thursday Morning, August 7, 2014

Hurricane Iselle continues to move westward and should hit the Big Island of Hawaii early Friday morning. Iselle remains a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and there is a possibility that it will still be of hurricane intensity when it hits the Big Island. The forecast models call for Iselle to downgrade to a tropical storm when it passes the Big Island and for it to take a westerly track south of the other Hawaiian Islands. Iselle should be pass south of Oahu and Aulani during the day of Friday. A hurricane warning has been issued for Hilo and the Big Island and tropical storm warnings have been issued for Maui, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Molokai, and Oahu. Kauai is under a tropical storm watch.

Hurricane Julio's projected path takes it just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Right now, it is not expected to make landfall on any of the Islands. Julio is about two days behind Iselle and should pass about 100 miles north of Oahu on Monday, August 11, 2014. Although Julio is currently a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, it should downgrade to a tropical storm by Sunday.

Both Iselle and Julio should bring a lot of rain to the Hawaiian Islands. Yesterday, Weather Underground was reporting that Honolulu had a 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph and a 2% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. The odds for Hilo were much higher at 72% and 8%, respectively.

 

[ohana7]

Hi disneypoor, yes we were at the beach yesterday and was asked to leave. Our son was also in aunties house yesterday and is booked in for a programme on Friday, again a different cast member said that programming looks be be shut down for Friday, the staff are to stay on site tonight, ie sleep at Aulani to assist with whatever they are needed to do, and for safety reasons guests will be asked to stay inside. I hope that it doesn't come to this though, but obviously as the aunties house cast member said , the guest safety will come first.

 

[disneypoor]

Hi disneypoor, yes we were at the beach yesterday and was asked to leave. Our son was also in aunties house yesterday and is booked in for a programme on Friday, again a different cast member said that programming looks be be shut down for Friday, the staff are to stay on site tonight, ie sleep at Aulani to assist with whatever they are needed to do, and for safety reasons guests will be asked to stay inside. I hope that it doesn't come to this though, but obviously as the aunties house cast member said , the guest safety will come first.

Hi! Thanks for clarifying that for me. I am kind of surprised that Aulani has not let all of its guests know something. I talked to several locals yesterday, and they were also surprised that we haven't been told anything. Many of them said they had received notice from their buildings that included lists of supplies they should have on hand, the news that people are not to be outside on Oahu on Friday, and one even said their elevators in their building would be shut down at 8:00 tonight. I called down to the front desk again today, and they just said they are monitoring the situation and to enjoy the rest of my vacation. We are on the 16th floor, and I'm worried about loss of power (elevators, etc.), and just want to know what Disney's plan is if the situation gets bad. Hopefully they will tell us all something this evening so we are prepared if Iselle does come in stronger than expected. Stay safe!

Susan

 

[ohana7]

Hi disneypoor, we have been contacted by Aunties that the programme fish are friends has been cancelled for tomorrow, we have also just returned from the beach where staff are making sand bags and placing them I front of the shacks. They are also removing structures, eg the roof of the beach hut We were out this morning and also heard on the radio about emergency shelters, and water storing, I am assuming that Disney are planning for the risk without trying to cause alarm.