I ran the numbers and we spent around $4800 last year for 11 days @ Disney and around $5700 this year for 18 days. The total is for tickets, room, and DDP.
All Stars rooms run ~$150/night outside of peak holidays. If you continue to stay for 29 nights per 2 years or ~14 nights per year, then you would compare DVC with a cash cost of ~$2,100/year for your room. If you get the regular APs (non-DVC), and if you are able to get AP room discounts, that savings may more than cover your higher cash cost for the APs for non-DVC members. But you cannot count on AP room discounts when you want to go
Anyway, adding together your cash stays (14 nights = $2,100) at
All Stars plus regular APs, you'd spend ~$3,531 first year, $3,405 in renewal year for room and passes.
200 points for around $20K.
200 Bonus points to be used in 1 year.
Maintenance fee of a little less than $1000.00.
The total comes with financing comes to about $4500 annually (including purchasing annual passes).
So you'd spend ~$969-$1,100 more per year for DVC plus AP. Add another $300 extra/year if the DVC discount on APs disappears.
Is it worth it to you to pay more for DVC than what you're doing now? Only you can answer that. But to be honest, do you really want to take on a loan right now that will increase your annual budget by another $1,000 plus, and it would not provide any more nights staying at WDW?
Some here (besides me) would caution you about financing an expensive luxury purchase like DVC, especially in today's economy. If you want the upgrade in resort to the DVC resorts, would you be willing to pay for it with cash nights at moderate or deluxe resorts? If so, perhaps you'd put whatever upgrade expenses you'd expect to pay aside and save up for your DVC purchase in a year or two. If you can't do this, is it really affordable or would you be committing yourself to higher expenses than is wise? Again, only you can answer this.
200 points will only get you 14 nights in a studio
if you
always stay at OKW (lowest points) during Dream season or lower (can be tricky if your DD can't miss much school) and you never use the points for holidays, long weekends or 9-day stays that include two weekends. That's a best case scenario and I'd tend to say you won't always want to do it, ending up adding cash nights anyway or buying even more points later. If these are the realistic result, then you'll be spending even more for DVC, beyond the $1,000/year increase above, than what you're currently paying at All Stars.
So IMO, if you are enjoying your current non-DVC vacations, keep going. It's more economical. If you think you'll be upgrading your cash trips to, say, a moderate or deluxe room
anyway, then DVC may break even eventually, especially if you can save up and not pay interest on a loan. These are the reasons that most folks would advise you
NOT to buy DVC if you normally stay in Disney Value hotel rooms or offsite and it's working for you. HTH.