Thing is ROFR is a paper tiger going forward. Every major corporation is slashing spending and laying off 7-12%. Debt is getting very expensive. Disney is literally caught flat-footed. They’re going to be selling active DVC across several properties at a time when the economy is contracting substantially. I’ll bet the ROFR department is going to be told to use their funds very conservatively, because the last thing Disney will want in a deep recession is more DVC inventory.
My thoughts: ROFR is going to be incoherent. They’ll buy back at $160 and let $140s walk all day. Brokers will then tell buyers not to put in a “lowball” $150 because Disney bought 5 contracts at $160. But it’s all psychological to buoy the market.
Reality is there are normally 600 or so DVC resale listings online, and yet as of Feb 2, 2023, we have over 2,700. ROFR only works as a safety net on prices if there are buyers, and there aren’t many. So, inventory will continue to pile up and unless sellers humble their proud pricing, they won’t find a bid.
Go rent the points out, they said…problem is are there renters? Because more sellers will look that route. Eventually you get to a situation of a glut of sales and rentals and points expiring worthless. That’s when the real panic sets in.
Looking forward to BLT sub-$100.