Is anything selling?

[HIRyeDVC]

• The rental market is starting to see a lot of saturation and complaint it is slowing. If some pull listings to rent, that will impact that.

I think this will be the critical point where sellers will feel the pressure to bring down their price and sell. As long as DVC has been around, the ability for owners to rent out their points has always been a reliable safety net. It's also been a good marketing tool to get people to buy. But if the rental market slows as well, it may send a little more urgency on the part of the sellers. When I look at the open requests on dvc rental store, Beach Club and Grand Cal are the only resorts in rental demand. Anything else that pops up will be snapped by an owner in an instant.

 

[Brian Noble]

As long as DVC has been around, the ability for owners to rent out their points has always been a reliable safety net.

I know I keep saying this, but it did not work out this way in the Great Recession, and that's why sellers had to bring money to close.

"It's always been easy to rent" is only true in the same way that "We've always been at war with Eastasia" is.

Do I think another GR is coming? No--I'm currently in the Soft Landing camp (the earnings guidance/results from American Express in particular are suggesting the party is still going strong) but that doesn't mean that demand for WDW vacations won't ebb and flow over time.

However, the ebbs are probably exacerbated by all the people who've been buying to rent as a side-hustle business model. That can't scale forever, and it's not clear how well it will even scale within the limits of "people who own DVC."

At the end of the day, I'm a bah-humbug/get-off-my-lawn sort of guy when it comes to being all clever about using DVC as a business. Give me that boring low-fee index fund every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

[Jayunit09]

Seeing everything drop is crazy. I saw the CCV 50 point contract and offered $10/pp less. They countered with 5/pp less. I wasn’t going to lose the contract over $250.

Maybe seems like we bought slightly high? But I don’t mind I wanted to add the points and waited forever for a Sept use year small contract at CCV.

 

[Toblerone]

I signed an agreement in late January and then another agreement 6 days later. Both listings were on the same site and the contract numbers seemed to indicate that 5 other agreements had been signed between my first and last agreements. So an average of 1 agreement per day on 1 resale site.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Has anyone had luck selling lately? I have my points listed for what seems like a good price, and not so much as a nibble for months. I'd literally take any reasonable offer at this point. I'm kicking myself because the market was so strong, but I had a rental reservation that I had to wait until it was over.

Go to Fidelity, find your resort. Sort by “price per point.” Is your contract price matching or below the low-end price per points listed there? If not, then that’s why it’s not selling, your price is probably just too high. If your listing above $100 pp on SSR right now or above $90ish for OKW, then it’s too high, IMO.

 

[Wyldstyle77]

Go to Fidelity, find your resort. Sort by “price per point.” Is your contract price matching or below the low-end price per points listed there? If not, then that’s why it’s not selling, your price is probably just too high. If your listing above $100 pp on SSR right now or above $90ish for OKW, then it’s too high, IMO.

Yup. We are looking to buy SSR soon and I won't pay more than $ 100. I consider $ 100 to 105 a starting point for negotiation.

 

[tom1944]

Just made our second offer.

This one will be presented to the owner

I am either getting good at estimating prices or got lucky

I went to the sponsor site and using the Instant sale tool I bid $1 dollar more per point

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Reminds me of the Price is Right where the winning bid was often $1 so you didn't overbid on the opening round.

 

[Cfabar1]

The instant sale tool is helpful, but I doubt that many sellers will take the prices offered…

Still… you only need one person to say yes…

 

[CVG]

The instant sale tool is helpful, but I doubt that many sellers will take the prices offered…

Still… you only need one person to say yes…

Prices are set at the margin! I may think that my resort is worth $160pp but as soon as someone sells for $140 then all bets are off.

 

[RoseGold]

The rental market is starting to see a lot of saturation and complaint it is slowing. If some pull listings to rent, that will impact that.

I just don't see this. Go on Facebook, and there is tons of demand for good bookings. But you have to know what you're doing when you are booking, and renting is not easy because of the constraints of the system. Demand is there. Availability and proactive sellers aren't.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

I just don't see this. Go on Facebook, and there is tons of demand for good bookings. But you have to know what you're doing when you are booking, and renting is not easy because of the constraints of the system. Demand is there. Availability and proactive sellers aren't.

Could you elaborate on “know what you are doing when you are booking”? I assume you mean booking a high demand unit (studio) at a popular resort at popular times?

 

[RoseGold]

Could you elaborate on “know what you are doing when you are booking”? I assume you mean booking a high demand unit (studio) at a popular resort at popular times?

Of course. It's not like renters want the overpriced 1BR for Tuesday to Thursday.

 

[kboo]

I know I keep saying this, but it did not work out this way in the Great Recession, and that's why sellers had to bring money to close.

Both of our VGF contracts were "distressed" - one, the seller had to bring money to close (which actually delayed the closing a bit) and the other was already being flipped by the financing co. This was in 2018, 2019.

I'm sure the sellers who had to bring $ to close would have been willing to sell for less, except for the fact that they had to bring money to close.

Which brings me to another question - in my part of the country there was a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures sat the height of the pandemic. Even after that was lifted, lenders/landlords have been cautious and tried to work things out rather than foreclose and evict ... any sense whether that's been the case elsewhere, and with things like DVC?

 

[SkampyOne]

I'd get an instant sale quote from the board sponsor and then ask for $10 more, but everyone's case is unique.

Figured that was a good approach and in my case, the broker came back and said the seller would be willing to counter, but still $30pp above that! Broker also a bit exasperated at the price the seller wants. Hope sellers realize we have a LOT of choice and if we're less fussed by UY and exact contract size (within reason), we can easily move on. I have cash ready to help 1-2 sellers with their contracts! But I know what is reasonable and I'm ok waiting if they're not flexible. I'm seeing $20-$25 above ROFR threshold with little/no willingness to budge on price. To the OP, I guess your listing doesn't fit my parameters, but good luck!

 

[tom1944]

Figured that was a good approach and in my case, the broker came back and said the seller would be willing to counter, but still $30pp above that! Broker also a bit exasperated at the price the seller wants. Hope sellers realize we have a LOT of choice and if we're less fussed by UY and exact contract size (within reason), we can easily move on. I have cash ready to help 1-2 sellers with their contracts! But I know what is reasonable and I'm ok waiting if they're not flexible. I'm seeing $20-$25 above ROFR threshold with little/no willingness to budge on price. To the OP, I guess your listing doesn't fit my parameters, but good luck!

I think a lot of sellers have a price they are willing to take and do not care that the market is softening. That is their right. Both parties have the right to be comfortable with the agreement.

 

[Huskerpaul]

I think there are a lot of contracts for sale because many 50+ owners are now former Disney fans who want out for reasons ranging from the quality of the park experience today vs "the good old days", to the fact that politics seems to inject itself into everything in the U.S. now days.

 

[SkampyOne]

I think a lot of sellers have a price they are willing to take and do not care that the market is softening. That is their right. Both parties have the right to be comfortable with the agreement.

1000% and if I were selling, I'm sure I'd be in that camp too

 

[sethschroeder]

If you didn't know we are in a recession. I know certain people love to tell you otherwise but we are unfortunately.

If you are okay holding your best best is to rent out the point that will expire before the end of 2024 and look to sell in the last half of 2024 or 2025.

 

[Stank]

Thing is ROFR is a paper tiger going forward. Every major corporation is slashing spending and laying off 7-12%. Debt is getting very expensive. Disney is literally caught flat-footed. They’re going to be selling active DVC across several properties at a time when the economy is contracting substantially. I’ll bet the ROFR department is going to be told to use their funds very conservatively, because the last thing Disney will want in a deep recession is more DVC inventory.

My thoughts: ROFR is going to be incoherent. They’ll buy back at $160 and let $140s walk all day. Brokers will then tell buyers not to put in a “lowball” $150 because Disney bought 5 contracts at $160. But it’s all psychological to buoy the market.

Reality is there are normally 600 or so DVC resale listings online, and yet as of Feb 2, 2023, we have over 2,700. ROFR only works as a safety net on prices if there are buyers, and there aren’t many. So, inventory will continue to pile up and unless sellers humble their proud pricing, they won’t find a bid.

Go rent the points out, they said…problem is are there renters? Because more sellers will look that route. Eventually you get to a situation of a glut of sales and rentals and points expiring worthless. That’s when the real panic sets in.

Looking forward to BLT sub-$100.