I may only buy direct from now on

[DanCali]

By definition, they are not overpriced, because they are selling.

Yes, they are probably selling for less than list, but not that much less.

By the same logic, the ones that are not selling are overpriced

Since staying at the resort and taking a strong liking to it, I've tried inquiring about a few resales and those owners are clinging to them in the hope of getting a buyer who will just pay close to the asking prices. The problem is that, at those asking prices, I would prefer to just buy direct without the restrictions because the functionality of the direct vs resale product is like night and day. And their brokers don't really have an incentive to educate them accordingly since they get paid as a percentage of the sales price.

Here is an illustration why you might say Riviera resale listings are generally overpriced:

There are currently 28 active RIV listings of 200 pts or less (all use years). Of those, 22 (79%) have been on the market for 30+ days and 18 (64%) for 60+ days.

By comparison, the prior two resorts in expiration dates are CCV (2068) and PBV (2066):

There are currently 69 active CCV listings of 200 pts or less (all use years). Of those, 43 (62%) have been on the market for 30+ days and 32 (46%) have been on the market for 60+ days.

There are currently 46 active PVB listings of 200 pts or less (all use years). Of those, just 13 (28%) have been on the market for 30+ days and just 10 (22%) have been on the market for 60+ days.

It seems that, as a resort matures, buyers and sellers come more into agreement about "fair value. You always have some buyers willing to pay more and some sellers willing to accept less. So while some Riviera listing do eventually sell, they sell slower than older, non-restricted resorts because other potential buyers want to pay less (restrictions do play a stronger role here) and other potential sellers are not yet willing to write off a large part of what they paid. I'd argue that if asking prices were 15%-25% lower, the supply/demand imbalance would be more comparable to CCV or PVB.

 

[Sandisw]

By the same logic, the ones that are not selling are overpriced

Since staying at the resort and taking a strong liking to it, I've tried inquiring about a few resales and those owners are clinging to them in the hope of getting a buyer who will just pay close to the asking prices. The problem is that, at those asking prices, I would prefer to just buy direct without the restrictions because the functionality of the direct vs resale product is like night and day. And their brokers don't really have an incentive to educate them accordingly since they get paid as a percentage of the sales price.

Here is an illustration why you might say Riviera resale listings are generally overpriced:

There are currently 28 active RIV listings of 200 pts or less (all use years). Of those, 22 (79%) have been on the market for 30+ days and 18 (64%) for 60+ days.

By comparison, the prior two resorts in expiration dates are CCV (2068) and PBV (2066):

There are currently 69 active CCV listings of 200 pts or less (all use years). Of those, 43 (62%) have been on the market for 30+ days and 32 (46%) have been on the market for 60+ days.

There are currently 46 active PVB listings of 200 pts or less (all use years). Of those, just 13 (28%) have been on the market for 30+ days and just 10 (22%) have been on the market for 60+ days.

It seems that, as a resort matures, buyers and sellers come more into agreement about "fair value. You always have some buyers willing to pay more and some sellers willing to accept less. So while some Riviera listing do eventually sell, they sell slower than older, non-restricted resorts because other potential buyers want to pay less (restrictions do play a stronger role here) and other potential sellers are not yet willing to write off a large part of what they paid. I'd argue that if asking prices were 15%-25% lower, the supply/demand imbalance would be more comparable to CCV or PVB.

Many of the RV owners trying to sell can’t sell lower due to financing.

The few contracts I tried for had sellers in thst positon…they did sell…less than asking but more than I wanted to pay.

I think we are a few years away from seeing where it’s going to settle in for pricing when more owners trying to sell can accept less.

My guess is the $120s.

 

[tidefan]

Except I did own restricted points with plenty of direct and it was frustrating.

Things changed in term of dates and needing to rearrange a trip. Only points that could make it work at the time were BLT that could not be used at RIV. So we ended up having to stay elsewhere.

So, for us, having them eas not worth it and so we sold and bought RIV resale, which are also restricted but at the place we want to be.

Everyone has to make their own choices but for someone who wants to not have to worry, it’s direct from now on.

But, we have our favorites which are VGF and RIV. So owning points there as well as potential new resort that might give us enjoyment is more important in the long run than any potential savings now.

And, our adult kids want those options as well so it makes no sense owning points that are restricted.

But that's your own personal situation, and everyone is going to have them. There are plenty of people that are interested in purchasing that could care less about RIV. Heck, I own direct and RIV is way down there on my list. Personally, I wish we had bought more BLT if anything...

Let’s take out the non WDW resort for a second.

That leaves pretty much MK area resorts. The big question will be how many owners left in the system at those popular resorts will be trading to the big three against those who own at the big three and want a near park resort?

It’s a big unknown. Now, plenty of owners who are fine staying put but I still think that demand in 2043, assuming restrictions stay as a part of the product, is going to be different and what might be easier now just becomes harder.

But you can't take out the non WDW resort. To me, Aulani is a huge factor (granted, once you actually know about it). I do understand though that to others it may not be. Also, to me, since we drive, being walkable to a park doesn't really matter, and I suppose it is that way for at least a substantial subset of owners. I actually think that SSR, AKV, CCV, and OKW will become more in-demand as we go along because they will have reasonable point charts.

Those points are gone but so are the rooms that go with them. And those resorts are popular for those wanting to trade.

But direct buyers still have access so the more direct that are buying now, start to add back to the pot for competition, won’t it?

And the amount of direct points that are sold will dwarf the resale points at resorts at RIV that are restricted to just one resort.

So, it will take a very long time to see that level of impact and by then, you will see something like SSR leave the system and come back potentially out of the mix for resale buyers.

And, as someone pointed out, CCV becomes restricted when it’s the last one left without them…

Yes, those resorts are popular to trade, but how many times could you actually get into BCV? The answer is not many. Same, to a lesser extent with BWV. I personally don't think that there will be that big of an effect, but we shall see.

What will be interesting is if a trade imbalance starts to occur at restricted resorts where people trade out more often than people can trade in.

 

[tidefan]

As I read a lot of these threads, and have had some discussions with other owners in our area (which started about APs, of all things), I am beginning to realize just how much having a car affects our DVC perceptions versus those that fly in. I may start a separate thread about that to see if it affects people's perceptions as much as I think it does.

 

[Sandisw]

But that's your own personal situation, and everyone is going to have them. There are plenty of people that are interested in purchasing that could care less about RIV. Heck, I own direct and RIV is way down there on my list. Personally, I wish we had bought more BLT if anything...

But you can't take out the non WDW resort. To me, Aulani is a huge factor (granted, once you actually know about it). I do understand though that to others it may not be. Also, to me, since we drive, being walkable to a park doesn't really matter, and I suppose it is that way for at least a substantial subset of owners. I actually think that SSR, AKV, CCV, and OKW will become more in-demand as we go along because they will have reasonable point charts.

Yes, those resorts are popular to trade, but how many times could you actually get into BCV? The answer is not many. Same, to a lesser extent with BWV. I personally don't think that there will be that big of an effect, but we shall see.

What will be interesting is if a trade imbalance starts to occur at restricted resorts where people trade out more often than people can trade in.

Oh, no question it is my personal experience but wanted to share as someone who had both and found it frustrating being shut out of a resort we wanted to stay at…and yes, right now it’s only RIV st WDW… it’s going to be more..assuming it continues…and one of those just might be a resort someone falls in love with.

And, if someone is buying DVC for WDW and not for trading for DL or AUL, then those are simply are not relevant for choices of todays resale buyer come 2042

And, plenty of people get to trade into both BCV and BWV…BCV may be harder but we have stayed at least 6 times in our ownership.

I agree we don’t know what will happen but I do think that resale buyers in 18 years who want to be at WDW are not going to find it as easy as today.

 

[tidefan]

I agree we don’t know what will happen but I do think that resale buyers in 18 years who want to be at WDW are not going to find it as easy as today.

And the big question is, does that devalue the product as a whole, as being able to get out of it if you needed to is a huge bonus if you need it...

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Sure, the convenience of buying direct is fatastic. We bought AKV and VGF direct as well with great incentives and the MB promos. But VGF may be the last time it's "up to $3K more for buying direct".

Riviera direct is in the 170s if you buy 150 points. Resale is in the $120s. That's about a $7500 difference on 150 points. And what if Riviera resale drops to sub $100 once supply increases more (I don't see those resale listings flying off the market in the $120s)? Would that make you think about it differently? Would you pay a 100% premium to buy direct, especially if you already have the blue card benefits and can book the new resorts at 7 months out?

Pretty soon there will be the opportunity to buy Poly2 direct. And when they start selling it you won't have Poly2 resales to compare it to. But if it has the same resale restrictions, I believe odds are pretty good that Poly2 resale prices will eventually follow the Riviera path. Are you ok with losing 30%-40% in a matter of 3-4 years on an asset that's meant to depreciate to zero over 50 years?

7500 dollars sound like a lot but it really isn’t….
over 40 years it’s less than 200 bucks a year….
‘but not being able to stay anywhere but Riviera for the next 46 years…. That sucks …. 200 bucks a year to be able to use my points how I want, for my kids to be able to use the points like they want….. penny wise, pound foolish

 

[Robbie Cottam]

But that's your own personal situation, and everyone is going to have them. There are plenty of people that are interested in purchasing that could care less about RIV. Heck, I own direct and RIV is way down there on my list. Personally, I wish we had bought more BLT if anything...

But you can't take out the non WDW resort. To me, Aulani is a huge factor (granted, once you actually know about it). I do understand though that to others it may not be. Also, to me, since we drive, being walkable to a park doesn't really matter, and I suppose it is that way for at least a substantial subset of owners. I actually think that SSR, AKV, CCV, and OKW will become more in-demand as we go along because they will have reasonable point charts.

Yes, those resorts are popular to trade, but how many times could you actually get into BCV? The answer is not many. Same, to a lesser extent with BWV. I personally don't think that there will be that big of an effect, but we shall see.

What will be interesting is if a trade imbalance starts to occur at restricted resorts where people trade out more often than people can trade in.

I have always been able to get beach club…..
some time I have to waitlist it, but everytime I have tried I have gotten a two bedroom….
I have a waitlist now for Nov, I’ll let you know how I make out

 

[tidefan]

I have always been able to get beach club…..
some time I have to waitlist it, but everytime I have tried I have gotten a two bedroom….
I have a waitlist now for Nov, I’ll let you know how I make out

I have to laugh. I always think that I am the DVC odd bird. We've owned since 2007 and tried to use the waitlist more than a few times and it has never come through...

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I have to laugh. I always think that I am the DVC odd bird. We've owned since 2007 and tried to use the waitlist more than a few times and it has never come through...

i will say I book waitlist 7 months to the day in advance…..
if you wait until last minute your Mileage may vary ….

‘’if“ this stay in Nov come in it will be my 5th time at beach club….
I have done BWV s a couple times…..

more the most part I like the resorts I own and stay there

 

[Sandisw]

And the big question is, does that devalue the product as a whole, as being able to get out of it if you needed to is a huge bonus if you need it...

I guess it depends on how important it is to a buyer to be able to sell and get back some of the purchase prices.

There will always be a market for resale DVC as long as parks exist..but it may not be one that gives you much back.

We bought to enjoy so restrictions don’t devalue the product for us as we get to use points exactly the way we want and when we, and our kids are done, will give it to someone else, for whatever amount the market values it to be.

 

[DanCali]

Many of the RV owners trying to sell can’t sell lower due to financing.

That's a good point, but the buyers are not going to pay off the sellers' loans... In the meantime those sellers are still paying dues and a high interest rate.

I think we are a few years away from seeing where it’s going to settle in for pricing when more owners trying to sell can accept less.

My guess is the $120s.

There are already a couple of contracts out there right now in the $120s (Dec use year) and have not sold yet, although they listed relatively recently. They may be somewhat stripped, and Dec may not be the best use year for that resort, but I don't think $120s is where Riviera will settle over time because it's already there now.

I really want to separate the resort quality and location (which are fantastic) vs the functionality of the resale contract for the resale buyer. In terms of functionality of RIV resale vs the O14, it's really like a Pinto vs a Ferrari. Everything else equal, unless someone wants RIV specifically every year, and nothing else, most would probably prefer to buy a different resort via resale and gain a substantial amount of greater flexibility in usage. It says a lot when a 2042 resort like BCV sells for more than a 2070 resort like Riviera, and they are both "EPCOT resorts". That preference might change with lower resale prices at Riviera.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Riviera prices go into the $80s in the not too distant future. I've seen this same thing play out with Westin/Sheraton resale restrictions and history has not been kind to the restricted resorts' resale prices, no matter how great the resort. I may buy Riviera before it gets to the $80s, but $120s is too rich for me (and I blame it directly on the restrictions), and apparently I'm not the only one...

 

[Genie+]

After not buying direct for over a decade, and a strong supporter of buying resale, I may have just done a complete 180 on this thinking…

As I’ve known forever, and read posts about this forever, the convenience of buying direct, is substantial. I’ve ALWAYS supported buying resale as the savings are very substantial and worth whatever the inconvenience. But…

I just bought VGF direct as the incentives were just too good to pass up. I requested and was approved a Dec UY after agreeing on terms with my guide on a few quick phone calls.

Within 1 hour, I received edocs & my new master was loaded into my online account. I’m still shell shocked tbh.

Takeaways from my personal perspective…
1. Dealing with Disney direct is SO much nicer, quicker and better than dealing with brokers.

2. Discussing DVC (which I love doing with anyone & everyone) was absolutely awesome doing so with a CM who was dedicated to giving me the best deal & experience.

3. Not waiting to hear from broker. Not having to deal with brokers passive/aggressively telling me my lowball offers were offensive to seller with no accountability or interest in making my buying experience magical.

4. No waiting for title company to send docs to Disney for recording.

5. No waiting for MS “to get to” entering my contract to set up account after waiting for broker to send it in the first place

6. No waiting for points to be deposited after already waiting for MS “to get to” setting up my account.

7. No ROFR drama or waiting

In short, I basically paid the same, or even less, on my direct contract vs resale (given the current incentives). I’d GLADLY pay up to $3k more buying direct vs resale just for the magical experience not to mention the blue card benefits.

I just might’ve shifted into a “Only buy direct” consumer which I never thought I’d be. Just my .02 for anyone who might be on the fence like I was. I’m so TOTALLY EXCITED to own a direct VGF contract now. My goodness I feel like a kid on Christmas morning!! Literally giddy seeing my new Blue Card in my account View attachment 788451

*clap* Welcome home again! Haha

I’ve read many people experienced with both resale and direct having the same sentiment, especially when adding on a smaller contract. An entirely quicker and more pleasant transaction that is not always a big price jump. And now the divide has started with restricted resorts there’s more than just blue card to think about for the future of those points.

 

[Sandisw]

That's a good point, but the buyers are not going to pay off the sellers' loans... In the meantime those sellers are still paying dues and a high interest rate.



There are already a couple of contracts out there right now in the $120s (Dec use year) and have not sold yet, although they listed relatively recently. They may be somewhat stripped, and Dec may not be the best use year for that resort, but I don't think $120s is where Riviera will settle over time because it's already there now.

I really want to separate the resort quality and location (which are fantastic) vs the functionality of the resale contract for the resale buyer. In terms of functionality of RIV resale vs the O14, it's really like a Pinto vs a Ferrari. Everything else equal, unless someone wants RIV specifically every year, and nothing else, most would probably prefer to buy a different resort via resale and gain a substantial amount of greater flexibility in usage. It says a lot when a 2042 resort like BCV sells for more than a 2070 resort like Riviera, and they are both "EPCOT resorts". That preference might change with lower resale prices at Riviera.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Riviera prices go into the $80s in the not too distant future. I've seen this same thing play out with Westin/Sheraton resale restrictions and history has not been kind to the restricted resorts' resale prices, no matter how great the resort. I may buy Riviera before it gets to the $80s, but $120s is too rich for me, and apparently I'm not the only one...

I don’t see that because I think those buying RIV are like me….we have other points for the other places and are okay paying resale pricing for times we stay at RIV.

While I don’t see it going that low because, restricted or not, the resort is popular and foe those who want options, an electric set of points works. It will also be interesting to see if owners od RIV, if the value does fall, will just hold and use/rent vs selling low.

Could it also be that the direct pricing at RIV is currently low enough that buyers who want that resort are willing to pay more to buy it that way?

But, it will be interesting to watch, especially once we see some resale VDH and how the market deals with that in terms of pricing.

 

[GoingSince1990]

That's a good point, but the buyers are not going to pay off the sellers' loans... In the meantime those sellers are still paying dues and a high interest rate.



There are already a couple of contracts out there right now in the $120s (Dec use year) and have not sold yet, although they listed relatively recently. They may be somewhat stripped, and Dec may not be the best use year for that resort, but I don't think $120s is where Riviera will settle over time because it's already there now.

I really want to separate the resort quality and location (which are fantastic) vs the functionality of the resale contract for the resale buyer. In terms of functionality of RIV resale vs the O14, it's really like a Pinto vs a Ferrari. Everything else equal, unless someone wants RIV specifically every year, and nothing else, most would probably prefer to buy a different resort via resale and gain a substantial amount of greater flexibility in usage. It says a lot when a 2042 resort like BCV sells for more than a 2070 resort like Riviera, and they are both "EPCOT resorts". That preference might change with lower resale prices at Riviera.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Riviera prices go into the $80s in the not too distant future. I've seen this same thing play out with Westin/Sheraton resale restrictions and history has not been kind to the restricted resorts' resale prices, no matter how great the resort. I may buy Riviera before it gets to the $80s, but $120s is too rich for me (and I blame it directly on the restrictions), and apparently I'm not the only one...

Surely with RIV resales in the $80s, Disney would start doing ROFR on every single contract, because of the huge no-risk profit of reselling them as direct points.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

That's a good point, but the buyers are not going to pay off the sellers' loans... In the meantime those sellers are still paying dues and a high interest rate.



There are already a couple of contracts out there right now in the $120s (Dec use year) and have not sold yet, although they listed relatively recently. They may be somewhat stripped, and Dec may not be the best use year for that resort, but I don't think $120s is where Riviera will settle over time because it's already there now.

I really want to separate the resort quality and location (which are fantastic) vs the functionality of the resale contract for the resale buyer. In terms of functionality of RIV resale vs the O14, it's really like a Pinto vs a Ferrari. Everything else equal, unless someone wants RIV specifically every year, and nothing else, most would probably prefer to buy a different resort via resale and gain a substantial amount of greater flexibility in usage. It says a lot when a 2042 resort like BCV sells for more than a 2070 resort like Riviera, and they are both "EPCOT resorts". That preference might change with lower resale prices at Riviera.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Riviera prices go into the $80s in the not too distant future. I've seen this same thing play out with Westin/Sheraton resale restrictions and history has not been kind to the restricted resorts' resale prices, no matter how great the resort. I may buy Riviera before it gets to the $80s, but $120s is too rich for me (and I blame it directly on the restrictions), and apparently I'm not the only one...

Restriction on Riv are a negative at this point since Riv is the oddball….
as new resorts are added I think resale will become the odd ball…. Or lots of resale turn over

you may blame the resale at Riv being so low on the restrictions, but they are doing exa what they were designed to do…
however, if you are right, and i how you are, when Riv hits 80 I’ll buy a 1000 points there because it still rents at 20 a point or better…. I actually see that happening and DVC ROFR all of them to resell in the low 200s after one or two more resorts are restricted

 

[intamin]

I would never for a millisecond consider a resale purchase of a restricted resort like RIV, as I love having the SSR/OKW 0-7 month “safety valve” when needed, even if I haven’t had to use it very often.

To each their own, I would consider a small resale contract and book a RIV reservation using my direct RIV points. When I'm closer to the 31 day mark, I would fully strip the resale contact and save the direct RIV points and essentially only use the resale points every 3 years and the rest of the time would be on direct.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

To each their own, I would consider a small resale contract and book a RIV reservation using my direct points. When I'm closer to the 31 day mark, I would fully strip the resale contact and save the direct RIV points and essentially only use the resale points every 3 years and the rest of the time would be on direct.

Except, unless the room is still available, it would be a cancelation and you would lose the room….

 

[intamin]

Except, unless the room is still available, it would be a cancelation and you would lose the room….

except it would be a modification because I already have booked the room with direct RIV points which have the same home resort priority and don't need to forfeit the room, I'm just changing the contract the points are coming from...

 

[DanCali]

Restriction on Riv are a negative at this point since Riv is the oddball….
as new resorts are added I think resale will become the odd ball…. Or lots of resale turn over

you may blame the resale at Riv being so low on the restrictions, but they are doing exa what they were designed to do…
however, if you are right, and i how you are, when Riv hits 80 I’ll buy a 1000 points there because it still rents at 20 a point or better…. I actually see that happening and DVC ROFR all of them to resell in the low 200s after one or two more resorts are restricted

I don't think new resorts will be added in perpetuity. They may add 3-5 in the next couple of decades and then recycle some of the 2042 ones while adding the resale restrictions to them. But I think that will make resorts like BLT, AKV, VGF, Poly, CCR, OKWe, SSR and even Aulani more desirable via resale due to their added flexibility. It may be different after 2060 or so, but it won't be my problem at that point...

As for buying 1000 points at Riviera at $80 to rent out - if you're not using what you own, then why bother with DVC at all, which is still pricy by many metrics even at $80/point? If you want to become a timeshare landlord, I can point you to some Marriott deeded weeks that offer a 20%-25% annual return (buy the resale week for $9K-$10K and rent it for $2000+ over annual dues). Also, those are perpetual deeds that don't expire worthless by design.