How much is the lack of AP sales affecting DVC?

[thanxfornoticin]

Glad someone else is saying this- up until last Fall we kept hearing "they will come back in the Fall, like last year" - then "maybe start of the year?" then "late January...?" At this point it's just Disney pulling a sick joke on all of us.

But in reality, we never heard Disney saying those things - just a lot of significant rumor and wishful thinking around boards like this. Speculation was really peaked a few months back when Disney raised prices on APs they're not selling at the moment. Also some hope when they sold them at DL for a few days - but there's not been any official info released from Disney about reopening sales at WDW.

And this isn't just a DVC thing. I'm sure there are many people who don't own DVC waiting for them to return. There are so many hotels and timeshares outside of Disney where people like to stay multiple times each year.

 

[mistysue]

But in reality, we never heard Disney saying those things - just a lot of significant rumor and wishful thinking around boards like this. Speculation was really peaked a few months back when Disney raised prices on APs they're not selling at the moment. Also some hope when they sold them at DL for a few days - but there's not been any official info released from Disney about reopening sales at WDW.

And this isn't just a DVC thing. I'm sure there are many people who don't own DVC waiting for them to return. There are so many hotels and timeshares outside of Disney where people like to stay multiple times each year.

It doesn't matter WHERE the speculation came from. It's still something expected. Nobody imagined they would completely stop APs, then nobody imagined they wouldn't bring them back- it's weird. Really weird, I can get annual passes to all sorts of places, if you went back 5 years nobody had "Disney discontinues annual passes" on their bingo card. Like how "the perks might change" is in the contract, but people have expectations whether or not they have a legal right to demand them. There are norms that have been created, and one of them is that people use APs to visit more often, and those were the people DVC naturally appealed to most because it was a huge way to cut costs if you keep going back.

DVC has a location specific appeal. They sell so well and maintain value because they are at Disney world. (hence Vero Beach not being worth as much. It's only even worth what it is because it can be used on-site) There is nowhere near the market for "I want to go stay on site at WDW but not actually go to the parks" as there is for "I want to go stay on site and go to parks" and when the cost of parks is nearly impossible to justify, it will effect DVC value and purchasing. Just like how non-DVC people blocked from APs are also likely cutting trips. People who go once every 2-3 years are less likely to justify locking themselves into a timeshare.

 

[AaronEuth]

Lack of APs is the primary reason we haven't added on more points (240). We have plenty of points for a long studio stay with a 10 day pass and rest days, or a shorter week stay in a better room. Any additional points would come with the added expense of having to purchase another set of park tickets, so it's a hard nope for us. Also fly from Seattle, so shorter trips don't make sense for us.

 

[LRdismom]

The lack of APs just means I'm doing more resort stays. I visit 2-3 times per year and I refuse to buy tickets every time, because that's a huge ripoff.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm sure the lack of APs is driving some decisions. I am incredibly skeptical that it explains a significant fraction the sharp drop-off in direct sales over the last two months. People do not behave that way in large numbers.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I'm sure the lack of APs is driving some decisions. I am incredibly skeptical that it explains a significant fraction the sharp drop-off in direct sales over the last two months. People do not behave that way in large numbers.

I agree totally. And this post keeps going around in circles!

 

[Pooh12863]

I'm sure the lack of APs is driving some decisions. I am incredibly skeptical that it explains a significant fraction the sharp drop-off in direct sales over the last two months. People do not behave that way in large numbers.

I don't think it's anything more than consumer confidence, and less disposable income.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

No APs for 2 years, and the parks are still crowded as hell. What are we still talking about this for?

 

[Yankee626]

I travel to DW 3-4 weeks a year . If I couldn't get an AP I wouldn't go at all and sell my 450 points. I was able to buy my AP the day before they stopped selling them on 11/20/2021. I just happened to make my first trip back to DW after the covid shutdown and bought it then . The very next morning they stopped selling them. I was that close to selling . If they dont continue with allowing renewals ;I will definitely sell. Or at least rent out my points for a few years.

 

[RivShore]

I'm sure the lack of APs is driving some decisions. I am incredibly skeptical that it explains a significant fraction the sharp drop-off in direct sales over the last two months. People do not behave that way in large numbers.

Perfectly put. The premise of AP's impacting the last couple months of sales would have required EVERYONE to suddenly have decided, at the exact same time, that AP's are never coming back. That just defies all logic.

ETA: I don't disagree that the lack of AP's has had some impact over the last year or so (as evidenced by the many comments here) but I do disagree with them suddenly having a singular big impact in Jan-Feb.

 

[CraigInPA]

Count me among the members who have chosen not to explore additional point purchases based upon the recent actions of Disney Parks & Entertainment. My wife and I wouldn't keep an AP going continuously, getting two or three trips into the year we'd have it, then wait 9-10 months and buy it again. The renewal pricing kept enticing us, but the "time off" period always worked in our favor. Now, with date-based pricing, we're spending MUCH more than what an AP costs to go to the parks. In fact, this year it was double what we last paid for the AP.

The other factor is Genie+. That piece of crap forces you to get up at 7am every morning to plan your entire day! Gone is the leisurely 60 day out, one day scramble to put together three fastpasses and then adjust the dining we set up at 180 days to match the fastpasses. Instead, we make our dining reservations 60 days out and then have to fit in the rides the morning we want to go to the park, because there's basically no way we're moving the dining around day-of. While this probably works well at Disneyland, with its large numbers of day trippers, it's a disaster for WDW. And, don't even get me started about having to pay $20 to avoid a 2-3 hour wait in line to go an individual ride like ROTR *if* you're up at 7am to book the lighting lane for that ride, on top of the regular price of the already expensive daily admission, and on top of Genie+ if you want to go on more than a couple of rides at MK. It's a disgraceful money grab.

 

[Brian Noble]

So let me reset the discussion. Most of you seem to be taking the tack of how this affects DVC sales. That wasn't exactly what I was going after, I was wanting to see how it affects DVC, as in how does it affect the membership and usage patterns (I may not have made this very clear in the original post...)

Coming back to this broader question:

I do think it probably has influenced some usage patterns. I can imagine some frequent-visit Members with lots of points deciding to rent (more) points out and go less often themselves. I can also imagine some large-point Members deciding to stay in larger/more point-intensive units for fewer days, and maybe inviting friends and family. Someone with more modest point holdings might combine what would have been two shorter trips at different times of year into one longer one to take advantage of the more attractive prices on longer-stay tickets. I think it is also possible that some Members are using this as an opportunity to try other DVC destinations (AUL, VB, HHI) and/or looking to the external exchange options (either cruising DCL or using Interval) to venture beyond the WDW Bubble.

How much is any of this happening? I don't know. How many members (a) have visit patterns that benefited from APs, (b) didn't continuously renew them through the sales pause, and (c) don't just say "it's vacation, if it costs more, fine, we're still going."

For that last part: I have been known to just throw money at a vacation issue because my "vacation budget" is pretty squishy. That might not mean buying WDW tickets, but it might not mean visiting DVC for fewer days. For example, last year I had some timeshare assets to burn, so I booked two consecutive weeks at SSR in a 1BR, plus a second 1BR for the first week for extended family. I had planned to buy an AP for that trip, but didn't get to it before they closed sales. So I ended up buying a 10-day hopper+water parks. I went to Typhoon maybe once or twice on non-park days. But, I also saw a show at House of Blues (It was 311, and I only paid like $25 on the secondary market), and grabbed a Sea World Platinum pass and hit that up several times for their festival plus getting a few new-to-me coasters on my track record. That's probably all a bit more than just buying another three-day ticket to the Disney parks. It certainly wasn't much less.

 

[karen4546]

Well I can tell you my family is really been hurt by the lack of AP sales. Three of us have APs. We bought them when they briefly renewed sales in 2021 and have been renewing them ever since. Several other members are itching to get one themselves. We've been watching the rumors and looking for any signs that an AP will go back on sale again. And I've got a list of people I'm told to buy for.

I visit Disney three times a year. Spring, Fall and the holidays. The lack of APs means that several members of my family just don't visit the parks as often. They will shorten their stays or do other things. And they complain a lot. I see absolutely no reason to buy any more DVC on resale or direct. And I don't recommend it to people either. It's just not a good deal anymore.

When I bought my DVC contract, I did know about the Gold pass AP that was available to members. We had the Platinum and the savings would add up x 3. I knew then and I know now that I was purchasing a accommodations and since I was not purchasing a specific week, I knew I would need to be diligent in securing the most sought after rooms (value studios and value 2 bedrooms @ Jambo).

We renewed even through park shutdown and have no regrets.

We bought direct @ $175/pt. 100+25 pts. We have wanted to buy resale points to match our resort and UY but the resale prices were in the $130 range for a while and now they are down to $100pp-maybe even less. So, we are hopefully going to have an offer accepted

As far as value, we think our deluxe accommodations are valuable. We do a couple of club level stays using our AP discount thrown in here or there also or maybe go to our old favorite POFQ with the discount because my husband likes Scat Cat's.

I believe that they will bring back perks for staying ONSITE. I think they should stop offering the perks to "good neighbor" hotels but if those hotels are paying Disney then they will probably continue to offer the same perks as Disney owned hotels.

Perks that I would love to see are at least an hour early entry for Onsite guests, at least 90 day dining reservation booking, evening extra hours (to continue), I would LOVE for ME to return along with the Airline check in (I loved it when I could tag my bags at home and after i checked them at my home airport, I would see them after I got in my room-usually before the 2hr mark).

I stayed at BWV in December of 2021 and we went to Universal in addition to WDW. IMO, my DVC has value.

 

[lolakat]

I can't speak to the effect on the market but I can say that the inability to buy APs has directly affected how my family visits DW. When we had APs we would visit 3-4 times per year often for long weekends. That just doesn't make sense given the price of tickets, so we are spending our vacation dollars elsewhere. I have been renting out our points and have noticed the prices for rentals are down this year compared to the last 2 years, but I am still able to cover our cost of maintenance fees and amortized purchase price. I've wondered if the drop in rental prices is related to increased supply due to other DVC owners feeling the same way I do.

 

[Rochester Disney Fan]

Coming back to this broader question:

I do think it probably has influenced some usage patterns. I can imagine some frequent-visit Members with lots of points deciding to rent (more) points out and go less often themselves. I can also imagine some large-point Members deciding to stay in larger/more point-intensive units for fewer days, and maybe inviting friends and family

This is almost exactly what I have done. I wouldn't consider myself frequent but I typically visit 10 days once a year in a 2BR using the 1 pass . In the last few years I have also rented points and used a few for a RCI exchange last summer while not going to WDW. This September I am doing a Jambo House Grand Villa ( 6 total guest , my kids are each bringing 1 friend) for the first time. I'm hoping to win the lottery for the HS Moonlight magic tickets which will make me feel better about my overall Direct membership. So I'm finding ways without an AP to " make this work" but I shouldn't have to. A member discount would be great but at this point I'm just hoping they will be an option once again for us. Disney is slowly getting their house in order and the new Cast Member agreement is further proof of this. This alone should help attract and retain the cheerful cast members needed to operate the parks and resorts at a more optimum capacity.
Not to get off topic but I love @tjkraz suggestion of a DVC length of stay pass that would also encourage members to buy more points to get more use out of it. Fingers crossed !!

 

[nalabear]

I can't speak to the effect on the market but I can say that the inability to buy APs has directly affected how my family visits DW. When we had APs we would visit 3-4 times per year often for long weekends. That just doesn't make sense given the price of tickets, so we are spending our vacation dollars elsewhere. I have been renting out our points and have noticed the prices for rentals are down this year compared to the last 2 years, but I am still able to cover our cost of maintenance fees and amortized purchase price. I've wondered if the drop in rental prices is related to increased supply due to other DVC owners feeling the same way I do.

That's probably true for a segment of the population; and Disney is probably watching this and the per person spending those DVC nights rented as I'm fairly certain those renters probably are different segment of travelers than the regular on-site Disney folk (aka those traditionally renting AirBNB offsite, but willing to pay a little more for onsite DVC). And those spends will be higher than offering APs for lower per person visits into the parks.

So if the per person is higher and not affecting hotel occupancy from DVC rentals; Disney is absolutely no incentive to offer APs. Now if they can't sell their DVC inventory, they MAY bring APs back as an incentive for new direct sales. I can see that and would be mulling that lever if I were DVD exec.

 

[Rochester Disney Fan]

That's probably true for a segment of the population; and Disney is probably watching this and the per person spending those DVC nights rented as I'm fairly certain those renters probably are different segment of travelers than the regular on-site Disney folk (aka those traditionally renting AirBNB offsite, but willing to pay a little more for onsite DVC). And those spends will be higher than offering APs for lower per person visits into the parks.

So if the per person is higher and not affecting hotel occupancy from DVC rentals; Disney is absolutely no incentive to offer APs. Now if they can't sell their DVC inventory, they MAY bring APs back as an incentive for new direct sales. I can see that and would be mulling that lever if I were DVD exec.

On the flip side if the member was using their points it would force the renter to book elsewhere. That could mean on site driving up their hotel demand. Even if they rent offsite they are still spending money at Disney just as if they rented a reservation from a DVC member that Disney doesn't receive any direct compensation.

 

[nalabear]

On the flip side if the member was using their points it would force the renter to book elsewhere. That could mean on site driving up their hotel demand. Even if they rent offsite they are still spending money at Disney just as if they rented a reservation from a DVC member that Disney doesn't receive any direct compensation.

True. Though folk staying on site as an occasional visitor will probably spend more onsite than off or a regular DVC visitor who has APs and brown bag it to the parks.

 

[Boardwalk III]

No, NY. We have APs and had them before DVC because we did our annual trip 51 weeks apart. But our friends bought only for their yearly trip and have stayed on that travel plan since.

Same. Flying from the northeast and having been DVC Members for 20+ years we used to use the 10 non-expiring passes (awesome), then morphed into AP’s after those went away, getting two 7-10 days trips out of each AP (going a year apart less a week or two).

We got the extension on our AP’s due to the pandemic shut down and then renewed again this past fall but not sure we will keep renewing.

I suspect we may end up renting out a good amount of our points over the next few years if we no longer have AP’s and take just one trip a year. For the record, I’d be thrilled with a pass that gives us a flexible 20 days a year or so.

 

[WDWLODGE]

We were fortunate enough to purchase AP's when they were reinstituted for a brief period in 2021. We activated the AP's in January 2022 & used them for 3 separate 10-day trips in '22. We just let them expire and have no plans of purchasing other tickets anytime soon. We have our first Universal Trip coming up with a few resort only days at Disney. We're putting off any WDW Park plans in 2024 & beyond unless AP's come back.