How close are you to your breaking point?

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Here in Canada the government is taking it very slowly. They just now are talking about reopening things. Almost all concerts, fairs and festivals are cancelled for the rest of the year. Canada's Wonderland, which is a Cedar Fair park, is most likely not opening this season.

That's much like many areas in the U.S. Theme and amusement parks are not high consideration. Many fairs, festivals and concerts have been cancelled or postponed anyways. Movie theater companies AMC and Cinemark aren't considering an opening til mid-summer at the earliest at this point even in few places where they are allowed (I think Texas has allowed them with their reopening).

In the U.S. you'll have state measures, community measures, business measures, etc. I realize you tend to frame your comments about what your government is doing but you still kinda miss the point that here in the U.S. things may not be mandated at the Federal government level applying to all 50 states and territories but that doesn't mean there's are things being done at all at other levels.

 

[Jrb1979]

That's much like many areas in the U.S. Theme and amusement parks are not high consideration. Many fairs, festivals and concerts have been cancelled or postponed anyways. Movie theater companies AMC and Cinemark aren't considering an opening til mid-summer at the earliest at this point even in few places where they are allowed (I think Texas has allowed them with their reopening).

Reopening things slowly also helps get people used to life the way it is now. Physical distancing will be around for awhile.

 

[SaintsManiac]

In theory I would agree with you but in practice that's not necessarily what I've been seeing. You can continue on with life, slowly/gradually reopening things and yet still understand you need to test more people, PPE levels need to be adequate, etc but I think in some states a regional approach would be better suited than an entire state level. Not everywhere in an entire state is hit the same way or for lack of a better description the same risk factors.

And largely these models are not taking that into consideration. They are simply models without consideration to individual characteristics of one's own state or the methods areas within the state took and when but they are models driving the narrative for a lot of things.

I don't know I guess I just see it being used as a political talking point here now. We can't do anything these days without it becoming a partisan issue. And by "here" I mean in my state. Not the DIS.

In Louisiana we are starting elective procedures again and allowing people to dine on the outdoor patios of restaurants. It's a slow start, but it is a start. People will continue to go out as they have since this whole thing started.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Reopening things slowly also helps get people used to life the way it is now. Physical distancing will be around for awhile.

It does, don't disagree with that. A lot of people just want movement ya know. When there's no movement and seemingly no reason why there shouldn't be at least some movement it can cause a lot of other ripple effects.

 

[CdnCarrie]

I’m doing okay working from home. I couldn’t do it forever and it’s not nearly as relaxing as I thought it would be.

my biggest worry is when husband will return to work. I’m thinking his industry will be slow to open. I’m sure he will get his job back but it may be late fall. Financially that will be hard. We are doing okay now but it will be getter tighter longer this goes on.
Teens doing okay but if they have no sports all summer plus no family vacations for us that’s going to be quite the drag on their spirits. Hoping we can do some in province getaways this summer at least,

 

[Mango7100]

I will say I do think it's odd how different states are opening. We're in TN and restaurants opened today at 50%, retail on Wed., but no word on salons etc. On the other hand my family in CO are opening salons, ttattoo parlors, 1 on 1 services starting Friday, but no word on restaurants yet. Just different theories I guess, but I find it interesting.

We are also in TN but one of the exempt counties with a major city. nothing opens until Friday here—salons can open on Friday in our county but patrons and staff must wear a mask, appointment only, can’t wait inside, have to have at least 6 ft, no services allowed that would interfere with a mask (like a facial). And our phases are slower than the rest of the state—we have a minimum of 28 days before the next phase.

 

[Heather07438]

I think the perception of moving goal posts is because there weren't fully formulated plans to begin with. Flattening the curve was misinterpreted as a complete strategy. Now it's a matter of what the next step entails and why it's the best set up for the different unknowns going forward. Transparency about the decision making process was weak from the start.

 

[RamblingMad]

Malls are opening in GA and TX. It’s time to take out the surf boards and ride the second wave. I’m going to binge watch some teenage mutant ninja turtles and eat some pizza. Cowabunga.

 

[kdonnel]

Malls are opening in GA and TX. It’s time to take out the surf boards and ride the second wave. I’m going to binge watch some teenage mutant ninja turtles and eat some pizza. Cowabunga.

You sure about GA? I live there and have not seen any reference to malls opening.

As for Texas, have you seen the rules?

• Shoppers never get out of their cars.
• Purchases should be made in advance if at all possible.
• Workers will put the items in the back seats or trunks of vehicles.
• There should never be any personal contact.

The malls are opening for curb side pickup. How is that much worse then curb side grocery pickup or curb side restaurant to go pickup?

 

[pryncess527]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/sim...n-49-properties-heres-how-that-will-work.html
doesnt sound like Simon malls plan to be curbside only

 

[kdonnel]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/sim...n-49-properties-heres-how-that-will-work.html
doesnt sound like Simon malls plan to be curbside only

Had to google it because the local media has not latched onto it as of yet. Found gems like this:

https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2020/internal-memo-simon-to-reopen-49-malls-in-may/

The properties in Texas, Indiana, Alaska, Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Arkansas and Tennessee will not be limited to curbside-pickup reopening like the ones happening in Texas, the report said.

So which is it? The malls in Texas are opening and will not be limited to curbside like the malls opening in Texas? So impressed by the reporting.

 

[pryncess527]

Im not sure what a poorly written article you found online has to do with the CNBC article i posted.

I’m sure they will follow the laws of the states they are operating in.

 

[Searc]

Im not sure what a poorly written article you found online has to do with the CNBC article i posted.

I’m sure they will follow the laws of the states they are operating in.

The CNBC article clearly outlines their plans for the stores and properties, with procedures outlined going forward.

 

[pryncess527]

Heres an AJC article, which id call local GA media

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-s...ets-across-the-nation/J7UCzKvnpOlLTQelhwLgFL/

 

[mom2rtk]

I’ve yet to post, I’ve tried, but chickened out. So here goes honesty.

I am doing as ok as ok gets, make sense? I’m not losing it, but I have some fears that I can’t shake, losing my son (PTSD), it has been several nights of nightmares about it, and I run to his room to check on him. Well, as much as I can run. He is a workaholic, and he isn’t working or going to school, so he’s online gaming, which is fine. He deserves a break, but I know he’s bored, but will never complain,

My husband, I see getting increasingly down, like it’s never going to end, very doom and gloom. He was semi-retired, doing construction jobs on the sides, now he has zero interest in ANYTHING, and he’s not that type of guy, I am extremely worried. Every day I worry more, I see him eating less, sleeping more,
and I try hard to Bring up his thoughts, I’m a little afraid, so I can‘t let him out of my sight, and may call our family dr, he can do an over the phone call. Through everything we’ve been through, I’ve yet to see my husband so Depressed.

He is an extrovert, loves people, I’m the opposite, so he’s not coping well. He also LOVES to take long drives, music playing, you know, just to clear the head, but we can’t even go city to city here.
i also got injured, ribs ,so our daily walks we had, are not happening, I’m still in a lot of pain. soon I hope to be able to go back walking with him.

Big hugs to you. I sure life was hard enough on any given day without having this mess thrown into the mix. Prayers to you and your husband for continued strength and peace.

 

[ronandannette]

Here in Canada the government is taking it very slowly. They just now are talking about reopening things. Almost all concerts, fairs and festivals are cancelled for the rest of the year. Canada's Wonderland, which is a Cedar Fair park, is most likely not opening this season.

Yep. The Calgary Stampede was officially cancelled last week, along with all public events as there will be no easing of the current restrictions, at a local level, until Aug. 31.

That's much like many areas in the U.S. Theme and amusement parks are not high consideration. Many fairs, festivals and concerts have been cancelled or postponed anyways. Movie theater companies AMC and Cinemark aren't considering an opening til mid-summer at the earliest at this point even in few places where they are allowed (I think Texas has allowed them with their reopening).

In the U.S. you'll have state measures, community measures, business measures, etc. I realize you tend to frame your comments about what your government is doing but you still kinda miss the point that here in the U.S. things may not be mandated at the Federal government level applying to all 50 states and territories but that doesn't mean there's are things being done at all at other levels.

Of course it's the same here and I'm sure the PP knows that. I'm sure (S)he was just trying to be succinct in her comments. The only thing here that's absolutely dictated federally is whether or not the borders are open. Otherwise, the Federal Government provides a daily briefing and the actions of the authorities on the provincial, municipal and private levels are determined by the information provided.

 

[Colleen27]

Yeah, south jersey has done really well through this. Sad that you guys have to deal with the same restrictions - kinda like upstate NY dealing with the same restrictions. The NY Metro area has been slammed, and that threat is real, but some of the rural counties in the area are almost unscathed.

And your source gives those numbers as stable assuming current stay at home orders remain in place.


Except there has been an uptick. Operation Gridlock happened on April 15, following 2 weeks of mostly declining numbers. 5 days later we start an upswing in cases that takes us back to near peak levels. We don't have the case surveillance in place to really find out what's related to what, but the concern is certainly justified.

Yes. Those numbers - about 10% of available hospital capacity, in many states - hinge on stay at home orders remaining in place. But is that what we're after? This is what those of us talking about the moving bar mean... being below, *well below*, hospital capacity is no longer all or even part of the goal. Now the goal is something different, more narrow.

And as far as that uptick, it coincided with a major increase in testing - breaking 8000 for the first time on the first day of that uptick, compared to around 4000 per day the week of the protest - which also allowed for a significant relaxing of the testing criteria. The percentage of tests that are coming back positive continues to decline, which is a good measure of the effective R0 of an outbreak. But when you run 50% more tests in a day, you're going to get more positives. There's absolutely no evidence to suggest that the protests led to the significant increase in cases that people who oppose it said it would/has, but neither "side" in this is particularly interested in aspects of the science that don't suit their pre-established views of what needs to happen. One side will not accept anything that supports continued distancing and the other will not support anything that supports any relaxing of lockdowns.

Yeah. It's not like we're England during WW2... Or the United States for that matter. I wonder what we'd all do with rationing?

I was thinking the exact same thing a couple days ago. Good god can you imagine the whining and complaining?

I keep reading this comparison, but it overlooks or deliberately ignores one of the fundamental truths of human nature: we're not wired for isolation. The measures the world took during WWII were *collective*.

Even 50 years after the war, my great-grandmother talked about staying in the countryside in England with the family she worked for during the war, when London was a target and those with means left if they could. They gathered as much of the family as could get away from the city, all under one roof, and the children she tutored had a grand old time with their cousins and extended family, despite the hardships and stress of the war. My grandmother on the other side talked about how, during the war when all of their husbands were deployed, she and the 7 of her sisters who had left the family farm moved into two homes on the same block - my grandparents' and my great-uncle's, the only two homeowners among the bunch - and grew gardens and sewed and cooked and commuted to the factories together. Togetherness was a big part of those responses, and that made it more tolerable. They weren't ordered to stay in their own homes and cope without the simple comfort of a hug or the reassurance of seeing an aging or vulnerable loved one to know they're well.

This is where we draw different conclusions. The risk is in undetected transmission chains; community spread. I see, "The election caused a few dozen cases," and big warning signs go off in my head. They were looking for potential cases like a hawk, and they found them via testing and could stop the chain in its tracks. I'd assume that at least some of those people involved in the election were concerned about the potential of getting infected and spreading it, and so they self-isolated, which also stopped the transmission chain.

It's another example that extreme social distancing, and "trace & isolate" works. It doesn't demonstrate that in a less restrictive environment the virus won't spread rapidly. I assume people were really trying to "be safe" and still at least... Hmm, I'm seeing both 36 people statewide, and 40 in Milwaukee County, so the numbers are still growing.... 40 people got infected.

The epidemiologists studying the genetic signatures of the original introduction into the US, found 9 points in New York, 1-2 in Seattle/Vancouver, 1 in Santa Clara, 1 in Chicago, 1 in Phoenix. They expect there are more, but they haven't been identified, but we're still talking about "a few dozen." So if the Wisconsin election "only" led to a few dozen, I see that as even worse than where we started from with the original infection, because the original was "a few dozen" nationwide, and not a "few dozen" in one state, or one city (Milwaukee).

If people want to put me in "the sky is falling," camp, I'm okay with that. As an introvert, who doesn't work and has no kids, I am doing fine with the restrictions. Natural habitat and all. But the thing that really upsets me, is how many people keep underestimating the dangers of this virus, and therefore will find themselves overwhelmed and unprepared when our future unfolds. You know all the angst we feel for our DISboard peeps' friends and family who show up at WDW with no Fastpasses and no dining reservations? Only this time, the stakes are a lot higher.

And again, that's a significant moving of the bar - from not overwhelming medical resources to preventing all community spread, even though preventing community spread is a path without an end unless there is eventually a vaccine or treatment. The fear, before the election, was that letting (making) people vote in person would result in an outbreak that would overwhelm Milwaukee hospitals and lead to widespread deaths. It didn't happen, so now the revised standard is that even 40 cases is too many and we need to prevent all contagion. But if we do that, what is the long term plan? We don't have the public heath resources for a nationwide trace & isolate policy, nor do we have a clear-cut legal basis for forcible isolation of those unwilling to comply with that strategy. So if we set the bar at no community spread, where do we go from here?

I'm not minimizing the severity of the virus, but neither am I willing to exaggerate it. As pandemics go, this one is in many ways the best we could have hoped for - a relatively mild, relatively difficult to spread (compared to something like measles, with an R0 of 12-18 and a case fatality rate in the double-digits). The vast, overwhelming majority of people infected by this virus will recover. We need to take it seriously, of course, but without losing sight of that truth.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Of course it's the same here and I'm sure the PP knows that. I'm sure (S)he was just trying to be succinct in her comments. The only thing here that's absolutely dictated federally is whether or not the borders are open. Otherwise, the Federal Government provides a daily briefing and the actions of the authorities on the provincial, municipal and private levels are determined by the information provided.

Totally possible but enough of their posts are about the difference between Canada and the U.S. in a different way which is the only reason I mentioned that in the first place (and not as an insult but a way of giving the perspective).

I won't rehash those comments but they have existed over the course of this pandemic and throughout various threads and sometimes with the viewpoint that we must be all wild wild west-ing it in the U.S. even though there are some decisions being made of the same vain in each country (Canada and the U.S. respectively in this immediate discussion). Various posters have given them information on how things are done/set up/function in the U.S. that might shed light on their impression of the situation.

Thank you for giving the background regarding the varying levels of interaction within your Country.

 

[cabanafrau]

I keep reading this comparison, but it overlooks or deliberately ignores one of the fundamental truths of human nature: we're not wired for isolation. The measures the world took during WWII were *collective*.

Even 50 years after the war, my great-grandmother talked about staying in the countryside in England with the family she worked for during the war, when London was a target and those with means left if they could. They gathered as much of the family as could get away from the city, all under one roof, and the children she tutored had a grand old time with their cousins and extended family, despite the hardships and stress of the war. My grandmother on the other side talked about how, during the war when all of their husbands were deployed, she and the 7 of her sisters who had left the family farm moved into two homes on the same block - my grandparents' and my great-uncle's, the only two homeowners among the bunch - and grew gardens and sewed and cooked and commuted to the factories together. Togetherness was a big part of those responses, and that made it more tolerable. They weren't ordered to stay in their own homes and cope without the simple comfort of a hug or the reassurance of seeing an aging or vulnerable loved one to know they're well.

Certainly there were those togetherness aspects to the situation in WWII, but that was by no means a comprehensive look at it.

Many English children were shipped across the ocean, particularly to Canada, but some to the US as well.

Look at the years of deprivation to accommodate rationing and the disruption of many supply chains. Not very long ago we were watching a show called Back In Time, where families now were put into an experiment where their home, their clothing, their activities and their dinner plates reflected past decades. Participants struggled with hunger pangs and extreme dislike due to the amounts and types of things like the meats they had available to eat. They were going through it for a few days. Back in WWII getting liver, kidneys, heart, tongue, etc. at the butcher meant your family was getting some protein on their dinner plate. I can imagine that got old quick -- but people went through it for years.

I don't think it's quite fair to present the deprivations of WWII with so much of a glossy sheen and overlook the emotionally wrenching and mind numbingly mundane sacrifices that really wore people down over the course of several years.

 

[mjkacmom]

Yes. Those numbers - about 10% of available hospital capacity, in many states - hinge on stay at home orders remaining in place. But is that what we're after? This is what those of us talking about the moving bar mean... being below, *well below*, hospital capacity is no longer all or even part of the goal. Now the goal is something different, more narrow.

And as far as that uptick, it coincided with a major increase in testing - breaking 8000 for the first time on the first day of that uptick, compared to around 4000 per day the week of the protest - which also allowed for a significant relaxing of the testing criteria. The percentage of tests that are coming back positive continues to decline, which is a good measure of the effective R0 of an outbreak. But when you run 50% more tests in a day, you're going to get more positives. There's absolutely no evidence to suggest that the protests led to the significant increase in cases that people who oppose it said it would/has, but neither "side" in this is particularly interested in aspects of the science that don't suit their pre-established views of what needs to happen. One side will not accept anything that supports continued distancing and the other will not support anything that supports any relaxing of lockdowns.




I keep reading this comparison, but it overlooks or deliberately ignores one of the fundamental truths of human nature: we're not wired for isolation. The measures the world took during WWII were *collective*.

Even 50 years after the war, my great-grandmother talked about staying in the countryside in England with the family she worked for during the war, when London was a target and those with means left if they could. They gathered as much of the family as could get away from the city, all under one roof, and the children she tutored had a grand old time with their cousins and extended family, despite the hardships and stress of the war. My grandmother on the other side talked about how, during the war when all of their husbands were deployed, she and the 7 of her sisters who had left the family farm moved into two homes on the same block - my grandparents' and my great-uncle's, the only two homeowners among the bunch - and grew gardens and sewed and cooked and commuted to the factories together. Togetherness was a big part of those responses, and that made it more tolerable. They weren't ordered to stay in their own homes and cope without the simple comfort of a hug or the reassurance of seeing an aging or vulnerable loved one to know they're well.



And again, that's a significant moving of the bar - from not overwhelming medical resources to preventing all community spread, even though preventing community spread is a path without an end unless there is eventually a vaccine or treatment. The fear, before the election, was that letting (making) people vote in person would result in an outbreak that would overwhelm Milwaukee hospitals and lead to widespread deaths. It didn't happen, so now the revised standard is that even 40 cases is too many and we need to prevent all contagion. But if we do that, what is the long term plan? We don't have the public heath resources for a nationwide trace & isolate policy, nor do we have a clear-cut legal basis for forcible isolation of those unwilling to comply with that strategy. So if we set the bar at no community spread, where do we go from here?

I'm not minimizing the severity of the virus, but neither am I willing to exaggerate it. As pandemics go, this one is in many ways the best we could have hoped for - a relatively mild, relatively difficult to spread (compared to something like measles, with an R0 of 12-18 and a case fatality rate in the double-digits). The vast, overwhelming majority of people infected by this virus will recover. We need to take it seriously, of course, but without losing sight of that truth.

I’d much rather be cooped up with just my immediate family, with my cable and internet, full fridge, wine delivered to my door, that being cooped up with extended family, worried my house will be bombed. We call my IL’s every day, call and text our sisters, I’ve texted about 10 people today as it is. Oh, and said hello to many neighbors (we had the blue angels today). I feel way less isolated than those sitting at home during wartime. Heck, people are having conversations here!