Grand Cal Contract @ $324 a point gone in 2 days !

[ClaraOswald]

I see 8 VGC contracts out there now. That's the most I've seen in a while.

 

[ajiuo]

Ok so it seems that everyone loves the GCV . That being said I could right now buy 500 points @ OKW for the same price 160 points @ GCV cost looking at the going resale prices. Then use those 500 points to rent a grand Villa @ GCV with the same cost in cash and points for 5 days in October as a studio for 148 points a week at the same place and price. I could probably get the GV @ VGC @ 7 months . Wouldn't you rather do that ?

One of the reasons that VGC is so valuable is because it’s not a 7 months resort. Not to say you will never get anything, but generally speaking people who own at VGC stay at VGC. I would not buy points at another resort with the intention of staying at vgc… bad plan.

I watch the 7 month window at VGC. The availability is pretty sparse by the time the 7 month hirs and anything there goes almost instantly. You are not likely to find more than 3 days together if your lucky enough to find anything at all.

 

[jpizzle87]

The resale prices of VGC have now climbed so high that whatever savings there would be over VDH and the TOT is negated. I think we will start to see sub $300 VGC soon And I think eventually get back to close to where they were at. If it was approaching $230 before VDH pricing came out, I don’t know how long the TOT news from VDH will inflate the VGC resale pricing. In any event there is so much more value buying other resorts with the prices currently this high.

 

[Drewski77]

The resale prices of VGC have now climbed so high that whatever savings there would be over VDH and the TOT is negated. I think we will start to see sub $300 VGC soon And I think eventually get back to close to where they were at. If it was approaching $230 before VDH pricing came out, I don’t know how long the TOT news from VDH will inflate the VGC resale pricing. In any event there is so much more value buying other resorts with the prices currently this high.

This assumes people value VGC and VDH equally, which they don't. And VGC is a far smaller resort, so the difference in price between VGC and VDH will always be significant in my opinion.

 

[jpizzle87]

You also have to factor in that buying in at VDH comes with a longer contract and the ability to use your points at future DVC resorts. Though to be fair to use VGC points anywhere else is not a great use of points. I think there is a bit of a bubble with VGC right now. just a matter of how far it falls and how soon. Because direct points are very very very scarce at VGC, buying a small direct contract at VDH 50-75 points ($11,500-17,250) seems a lot more appealing than dropping $40k or more on 125 or more points of VGC resale at current rates.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

Tempted to sell my 240 VGC points to buy 6/700 Aulani points. We are always borrowed out of our 600 Aulani points but we usually have all of our VGC points regularly because 1) I would never trade VGC points into SSR at 7 mos 2) We have a place in SoCal and can drive back to 3) because avail is so tight you must plan so far ahead, that I end up needing to stay off property becuase there is nothing but rack. Now, would I trade into VDH at 7 mos? Sure, why not and maybe there will be some opening there with it being larger and so many folks sayng they are buying it to try to get into VGC. BUT, knowing I cant get the points back due to price and avail if I regret it, stays my hand.

Im assuming many who said VGC was gonna tank after VDH and that its still not worth the $$$, have never stayed there. It‘s incomparable and you can buy all the points outside of VGC and still you wont get a GV at VGC at 7 mos and prob not a studio either, ever, not anymore. Apples and oranges, if ever.

 

[buffalobasingal]

You also have to factor in that buying in at VDH comes with a longer contract and the ability to use your points at future DVC resorts. Though to be fair to use VGC points anywhere else is not a great use of points. I think there is a bit of a bubble with VGC right now. just a matter of how far it falls and how soon. Because direct points are very very very scarce at VGC, buying a small direct contract at VDH 50-75 points ($11,500-17,250) seems a lot more appealing than dropping $40k or more on 125 or more points of VGC resale at current rates.

I think you are right that this is a VGC bubble that was in response to the initial announcement of pricing for VDH, especially the TOT. It seems like the discounts and the magical beginnings are starting to show an impact on VGC demand this week. There are nine VGC contracts available today and some have been available for the last 5 days when just a week ago they would be under contract within hours. I was a VGC owner that accepted an offer just before the prices skyrocketed, so I missed out on the higher prices. I listed it because even at 11 months I still could not get the dates I wanted and we are planning to go to WDW more in the future. But, with the current VDH incentives I seized the opportunity to become a blue card DVC member instead of buying resale at a WDW resort. Which is one reason I am glad that the TOT is not rolled into VDH dues since I plan to use the points mostly for WDW stays. I do wonder if the VGC prices could drop as quickly as they rose this last month and if some of those buyers might walk away from the $320 VGC pricing to instead buy VDH for $188 with the current incentives.

 

[kboo]

Im assuming many who said VGC was gonna tank after VDH and that its still not worth the $$$, have never stayed there. It‘s incomparable and you can buy all the points outside of VGC and still you wont get a GV at VGC at 7 mos and prob not a studio either, ever, not anymore. Apples and oranges, if ever.

I was eagerly awaiting VDH as an alternative to VGC, but we go to WDW so much more often (usually 2x/year) and VGC less and for less time, and I'm not loving VGC and VDH prices, so we are willing to roll the dice for VGC at 7 months (and have a backup plan). Holding pattern here.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I think you are right that this is a VGC bubble that was in response to the initial announcement of pricing for VDH, especially the TOT. It seems like the discounts and the magical beginnings are starting to show an impact on VGC demand this week. There are nine VGC contracts available today and some have been available for the last 5 days when just a week ago they would be under contract within hours. I was a VGC owner that accepted an offer just before the prices skyrocketed, so I missed out on the higher prices. I listed it because even at 11 months I still could not get the dates I wanted and we are planning to go to WDW more in the future. But, with the current VDH incentives I seized the opportunity to become a blue card DVC member instead of buying resale at a WDW resort. Which is one reason I am glad that the TOT is not rolled into VDH dues since I plan to use the points mostly for WDW stays. I do wonder if the VGC prices could drop as quickly as they rose this last month and if some of those buyers might walk away from the $320 VGC pricing to instead buy VDH for $188 with the current incentives.

Can I ask which dates you had trouble getting at 11 months? That makes me nervous as we have yet to book anything with our points. If we struggle to get what we need at 11 months then I'm going to be very upset.

 

[TeamRiley]

The resale prices of VGC have now climbed so high that whatever savings there would be over VDH and the TOT is negated. I think we will start to see sub $300 VGC soon And I think eventually get back to close to where they were at. If it was approaching $230 before VDH pricing came out, I don’t know how long the TOT news from VDH will inflate the VGC resale pricing. In any event there is so much more value buying other resorts with the prices currently this high.

Even with the crazy high price, this isn't actually true. It is not the buy-in that costs you money in the end. It is the fees. Even at $320 VGC is a better deal after 20 years than VDH if you take the TOT into account. I think VGC prices will drop some, but I doubt they will ever go below $275 again.

 

[Sunnyore]

Can I ask which dates you had trouble getting at 11 months? That makes me nervous as we have yet to book anything with our points. If we struggle to get what we need at 11 months then I'm going to be very upset.

I think you’ll be okay, I routinely screen for any available dates at VGC when I plan my WDW trips and typically it’s almost full availability at 11 months. It tends to look more sparse at 8-10 months and then barely anything at 7 and under. At least this is the case for the studio villas.

 

[buffalobasingal]

Can I ask which dates you had trouble getting at 11 months? That makes me nervous as we have yet to book anything with our points. If we struggle to get what we need at 11 months then I'm going to be very upset.

This year I was looking to book a studio for Dec. 6-8 and they were gone when I tried to book a couple of weeks into January if I remember correctly. So, I decided to sell since I wasn't able to use the points for this year after all and we were planning to go to WDW in the future. I've owned since 2020 and thought we would go to Disneyland every year, but with the shutdown that year we only went on one trip in October of 2021. Thankfully those dates were available, but I booked those the first day possible at the 11 month window. We did end up changing dates and were able to get those different dates, but I did have to waitlist those since they were not available immediately to book. From my experience availability can disappear between the 11 to 7 month window even before non-home resort folks can book VGC. But, I will say that those Dec. 6-8 dates did eventually come open after I had accepted an offer, so the good news is I would have been able to get those dates if I had waitlisted them. My recommendation would be to be ready to book the first day if you can and especially if the dates you are looking for are during the more sought after times.

By the way, I have seen some of your posts and I am so excited for you and the enthusiasm you have for Grand Cal! It is the absolute best DVC resort if you ask me and I think you have made a great decision and will love being there with your family. The ambience is amazing and with the short walks to the parks, the private entrance to Cal Adventure and amazing views to where you feel like you are staying in the parks. I hope you have great adventures with your loved ones for many years to come!

 

[CaliAdventurer]

Can I ask which dates you had trouble getting at 11 months? That makes me nervous as we have yet to book anything with our points. If we struggle to get what we need at 11 months then I'm going to be very upset.

Ive not had any trouble at 11 but i dont always book studios. Studios at the holidays are prob the worst of it that Ive seen. And race weekend. My problem is that things books up so quickly that you need to almost book as a jic. For example, Im not sure what my plans are going to be but I had to grab a few days of presidents week and spring break and then i have to build my non disney plans from there which is a bit of a bummer. Of course you can alwyas rent them out for a premium (res you cant use) but thats time and trust etc.

 

[DVChris]

Can I ask which dates you had trouble getting at 11 months? That makes me nervous as we have yet to book anything with our points. If we struggle to get what we need at 11 months then I'm going to be very upset.

I think December was challenging this year at VGC - normal demand of the holidays plus a lot of people were walking for RunDisney in January which is why rooms opened up as the walkers kept walking. This is the first RunDisney at Disneyland since 2017 or 2018 so a lot of excitement of its return.

 

[ClaraOswald]

This year I was looking to book a studio for Dec. 6-8 and they were gone when I tried to book a couple of weeks into January if I remember correctly. So, I decided to sell since I wasn't able to use the points for this year after all and we were planning to go to WDW in the future. I've owned since 2020 and thought we would go to Disneyland every year, but with the shutdown that year we only went on one trip in October of 2021. Thankfully those dates were available, but I booked those the first day possible at the 11 month window. We did end up changing dates and were able to get those different dates, but I did have to waitlist those since they were not available immediately to book. From my experience availability can disappear between the 11 to 7 month window even before non-home resort folks can book VGC. But, I will say that those Dec. 6-8 dates did eventually come open after I had accepted an offer, so the good news is I would have been able to get those dates if I had waitlisted them. My recommendation would be to be ready to book the first day if you can and especially if the dates you are looking for are during the more sought after times.

By the way, I have seen some of your posts and I am so excited for you and the enthusiasm you have for Grand Cal! It is the absolute best DVC resort if you ask me and I think you have made a great decision and will love being there with your family. The ambience is amazing and with the short walks to the parks, the private entrance to Cal Adventure and amazing views to where you feel like you are staying in the parks. I hope you have great adventures with your loved ones for many years to come!

Ive not had any trouble at 11 but i dont always book studios. Studios at the holidays are prob the worst of it that Ive seen. And race weekend. My problem is that things books up so quickly that you need to almost book as a jic. For example, Im not sure what my plans are going to be but I had to grab a few days of presidents week and spring break and then i have to build my non disney plans from there which is a bit of a bummer. Of course you can alwyas rent them out for a premium (res you cant use) but thats time and trust etc.

I think December was challenging this year at VGC - normal demand of the holidays plus a lot of people were walking for RunDisney in January which is why rooms opened up as the walkers kept walking. This is the first RunDisney at Disneyland since 2017 or 2018 so a lot of excitement of its return.

Good info, everyone. Thanks! We do like to travel the first week of December every few years...though we try to avoid the Candlelight Processional weekend. So hopefully we won't run into too many issues on those years!

 

[DVC Doctor]

Here is some VGC math for your review

VGC expires in 2060 (37 years)
Purchase price at $324pp is $8.75 per point per year
VGC Annual dues is $8.04

Thus, cost per point is $16.79 per point

VGC studio averages around 27 points per night (ranges 17-37)

Thus, studios will cost about $453.33 per night (range $285.43 to $621.23)

Although this may seem high, I see the studios renting direct from Disney for over $800 per night so it is still a good buy if you intend to use the points at VGC

 

[ClaraOswald]

That's basically the reason we bought VGC this year. We did the math based on how many trips we plan to take while owning and then I compared it to what the Grand Californian would cost OOP. (And that's just based on today's prices...not prices 10+ years from now.) VGC is definitely cheaper than that! Is it cheaper than if we were to continue staying off site? Obviously not. (Though I know the off site prices will continue to rise as well.) But the difference wasn't so drastic that it wasn't worth it to us.

 

[FFMickey]

The value is still there, but I think we just saw a big price increase after the VDH and TOT announcement last month. I think VGC prices were depressed earlier this year while people were waiting for VDH to go on sale. IMO, I think pricing will settle in the lower $300s per point. There was a 125 pt VGC contract that sold quickly at $307 yesterday, which is about what VGC was selling a year ago.

 

[buffalobasingal]

The value is still there, but I think we just saw a big price increase after the VDH and TOT announcement last month. I think VGC prices were depressed earlier this year while people were waiting for VDH to go on sale. IMO, I think pricing will settle in the lower $300s per point. There was a 125 pt VGC contract that sold quickly at $307 yesterday, which is about what VGC was selling a year ago.

I agree with you that VGC is still a great value at $300 per point. I’m just seeing a trend that the prices are cooling off instead of climbing higher. There are even 100 point listings this week that are in the $290s, so hopefully you are right that prices will settle so that buyers and sellers don’t see any more dramatic swings.

 

[AC168]

I looked at hotel rates and VGC cost a while ago and concluded that VGC was worth around $600 per point. I wound up getting a contract at $200 so it was an easy decision. I’m not saying VGC should necessarily trade at $600 but if hotel rates stay high, $300 is still a great deal.