While the line length vs speed vs wait time explain
how slower standby lines don't extend wait times, it doesn't completely explain
why. Here is my best guess on why wait times don't change that much.
Most users will perform a Enjoyment vs. Wait analysis on everything they come across. They look at the wait time and decide;
Is it worth to ride this ride at the cost of the wait time posted on the sign?
This analysis is often performed without any regard to whether there is a Fastpass line or not and the decision is likely the same. For example, a user approaches SDMT, sees a posted wait of 90 minutes and decides not to ride. Here are some potential justifications;
- I don't wait over an hour for any ride.
- I am a thrill ride person. If I am going to wait over an hour it is going to be for a mountain coaster, not some kiddie coaster.
- Look, my phone says if we walk a little further BTMRR has a 17 minute wait. I would rather wait 17 minutes on BTMRR and the do other rides than spend 90 minutes in line for SDMT.
- My touring plan says if we wait 2 hours the line for SDMT will likely drop to 70 minutes.
You see the impact of these decisions impact how the lines grow in the park every day. As more people enter the park the lines grow quickly at first and then their growth start to slow as less and less people see value in jumping in a lengthy standby line. I would imagine if there were no limits of closing time and guests, eventually there becomes a point where so few people see value in waiting that long that it just won't get any longer. They also tour this way regardless of whether their are Fastpass+ lines in place or not. I suspect the first one, "I don't wait over an hour for any ride" is a fairly common evaluation criteria. As most lines for a ride start hitting an hour, the slow considerably and users start extending other rides until others approach an hour.
Therefore, while Fastpass slows the speed of the Standby line, the actual wait times of rides are typically regulated by this value calculation more than they are impacted by Fastpass (thus shorter standby lines with Fastpass). Once rides start hitting an hour, their growth will slow and people will go on to other things. Therefore the Fastpass may impact
which individual's ride something, but they may not necessarily extend a standby line's wait time that much.
I suspect every time a user arrives at a ride they want to ride, and then declines to ride because it failed the Wait vs. Enjoyment value calculation, it is a dissatisfier. One or two rides, won't make a huge difference in the guests day, but as more and more calculations fail, the guest's frustration grows until they declare, the park a disaster. At that point the park hoppers jump, the multi-day guests start debating pool time, and the day guests get angry and go home complaining about the waits and feeling ripped off.
