Fastpass return or replacement?

[malba2366]

The biggest problem -- and the reason that FP+ WILL return -- is that track A was only built to hold 50 consumables, so when 100 or 150 pack in there, it spills out into the park and creates major crowd control headaches. Kilimanjaro Safaris is an absolute wreck right now, because they're putting 3,000 people (a 1-hour queue) in a physical space designed for 1,500 people, and wrapping all the way back to Festival of the Lion King and through ugly backstage areas.

It's a physical problem as much as a guest experience challenge.

I think almost everyone agrees that FP+ as we know it is gone, if they were simply reverting to that there is no reason for not having it in place now that crowds are essentially back to normal. Once they decide on what they are doing they can reconfigure the queues for the rides so that there is more space dedicated to the standby lines. As others have said, the lack of shows/character attractions/parades and many guests maintaining more distance between themselves and others than pre COVID are also contributing to these long lines.

 

[mercuryvenus]

I think almost everyone agrees that FP+ as we know it is gone, if they were simply reverting to that there is no reason for not having it in place now that crowds are essentially back to normal. Once they decide on what they are doing they can reconfigure the queues for the rides so that there is more space dedicated to the standby lines. As others have said, the lack of shows/character attractions/parades and many guests maintaining more distance between themselves and others than pre COVID are also contributing to these long lines.

Character meet and greets are perhaps the single biggest thing they could bring back that would help ride lines, even without FP being brought back.

And honestly I’m a bit confused as to why they’re not back. Is it a CM staffing issue? Are they worried they won’t be able to handle social distancing well enough? There are distanced meet and greets happening at Aulani just fine. You stand in front of the character and have your picture taken. No big deal. Why can’t they do that at WDW?

 

[Karin1984]

Character meet and greets are perhaps the single biggest thing they could bring back that would help ride lines, even without FP being brought back.

And honestly I’m a bit confused as to why they’re not back. Is it a CM staffing issue? Are they worried they won’t be able to handle social distancing well enough? There are distanced meet and greets happening at Aulani just fine. You stand in front of the character and have your picture taken. No big deal. Why can’t they do that at WDW?

They are happening in Paris, in California and I am pretty sure they are back in Asia. At least in the indoor locations it should be easy to manage (as in less risk of kids seeing the character all of a sudden and run up to them). Must be staffing, maybe CMs but I think actor staffing.

 

[mercuryvenus]

They are happening in Paris, in California and I am pretty sure they are back in Asia. And in at least the indoor locations it should be easy to manage (as in less risk of kids seeing the character all of a sudden and run up to them). Must be staffing, maybe CMs but I think actor staffing.

Interesting — that’s good to know. So presumably as soon as they can hire folks back, they can start those up again.

 

[DJJimmy9]

Well, there are no 2 ways around it, and it's not really an opinion type of thing. It's quite simple math.

You have a resource a.k.a. "the ride" which can consume a certain number of consumables. Lets say it can take 100 an hour (that's very low, but we will use it for demonstration). How you provide the consumables makes no difference to the number that can be consumed. You have 2 tracks which feed the resource (track A and track B - a.k.a. "Standby and FP+"). If there are 100 consumables in track A and 0 in track B, the amount of time before the resource can consume all of the consumables in track A is one hour. If you have 100 in Track A and add consumables in track B at a pace of 50/hour, then the amount of time before the resource can consume all the available consumables in track A is 1.5 hours.

That is not a matter of opinion. It's a matter of fact. The only way you can alter that equation is to increase the resource.

There is a definite difference for a consumable in Track B as it has not spent as much time waiting in the Track. There is also a definite difference for the consumable in Track A which has waited 1.5 times longer.

In addition, if the consumable in track A includes sensors for motion and has thought (like a human), the person in Track A will perceive that they have a better experience if Track B is closed because not only have they not waited as long, but they are in constant motion rather than start / stop, start / stop, start / stop.

Think about it like driving your car. Would you rather be driving at 5 miles an hour or would you rather stop, then drive 10 miles an hour for a few feet,, then stop, then drive 10 miles an hour for a few feet? MOST people would rather be going at a steady 5 miles an hour. It's less frustrating and feels like you are constantly making progress even if the time in wait is the same.

Having a track B is good for the consumables (people) in Track B (FP+). However, it will ALWAYS have a negative effect on Track A consumables.

I will not argue your math. But I will ask how you factor this into the analysis: when will the 50 people in Track B (FP+) ride your ride if Track B we’re not available?

Answer #1 - They will have to enter Track A which will put 150 people in Track A. This means the next person who gets in that line will have to wait 1.5 hours.

Answer #2 - 50 people move from Track A and get to go through Track B and get priority status to ride. The next person who gets in track A has to wait 1 hour.

The flaw in your analysis is that FP adds 50 people that were never going to get in line if FP (aka Track B) didn’t exist.

 

[TommyJK]

The flaw in your analysis is that FP adds 50 people that were never going to get in line if FP (aka Track B) didn’t exist.

While it does need to be accounted for, I don't think it's as big of a flaw in the overall analysis. How many of those "50" people will wait an hour plus if they don't have the ability to wait 15 min or less? I'm guessing a smaller fraction of it.

In one of the past FP+ threads that have since been closed, the amount of "I'm not waiting in ANY line if it's more than 20 or 30 min" comments is pretty telling.

So if there is a Track A with 50 (FP) and a Track B with 100 (standy), and you eliminate Track A, My guess is Track B now becomes 110 (and not 150), as 40 from Track A say "I'm not waiting that long. I'm going to do something else".

 

[Mac30188]

While it does need to be accounted for, I don't think it's as big of a flaw in the overall analysis. How many of those "50" people will wait an hour plus if they don't have the ability to wait 15 min or less? I'm guessing a smaller fraction of it.

In one of the past FP+ threads that have since been closed, the amount of "I'm not waiting in ANY line if it's more than 20 or 30 min" comments is pretty telling.

So if there is a Track A with 50 (FP) and a Track B with 100 (standy), and you eliminate Track A, My guess is Track B now becomes 110 (and not 150), as 40 from Track A say "I'm not waiting that long. I'm going to do something else".

I think where that doesn't exactly hold true is if Fastpass is no longer an option. For example, if they went to the park lately with that attitude, they would either have to wait more than 20-30 minutes or not ride anything at all. I don't think they are going to spend that much money to walk into the park and ride nothing at all. I do agree that the lines will hit a point around an hour where it no longer matters, but I think that goes both ways. It is why Faspass doesn't lengthen waits.

I also believe you will have more people in shops if you have FastPass. Example. I get off a ride at 10:12. I look and realize I have a fast pass for 10:30. While it is possible I may try to squeeze in a quick ride and then go to my Fastpass before it expires, I probably am going to decide this is a great time to take a break, get a drink, go to bathroom and maybe hit a shop before we go enjoy one of our short waits. Fastpass removes the time urgency from the situation and I don't feel bad about loitering in a shop a few extra minutes knowing I have a reservation for my next ride. On the other hand, if I don't have a Fastpass, I realize the only way I get to enjoy another ride is to quickly find another Standby line to get into as quickly as possible so I can start the clock ticking on when I will get to enjoy my next ride.

Another interesting thing I notice about Fastpass is I spend more time walking. If I don't have Fastpass, I am probably going to attack the park in a clockwise or counterclockwise direction likely moving to the next ride I come across. Walking completely across the park for a ride is unlikely since there is little to guarantee it won't be a bad situation when I get there. With Fastpass, I don't feel bad walking completely across the park if I know a short wait is on the other end of the walk. Its ironic in I may not actually save that much time, but the walk to the other side of the park to enjoy a Fastpass feels like a treat....well except at the end of the day on my calves, but that is a different story.

Fastpass is a tool that allows me options to strategize around meals, Fastpass reservations, and standby rides not so I never stand in a line, but so It is not a continual process of one line after another. It is a lot easier to wait 45 minutes for a ride if you know you are going to relax, hit a shop, do a Fastpass then do lunch. It empowers me with tools to craft my day into a more enjoyable experience, and with crowds so bad right now, that would be a huge ability to ensure I enjoy my time in the park despite the crowds.

 

[DJJimmy9]

While it does need to be accounted for, I don't think it's as big of a flaw in the overall analysis. How many of those "50" people will wait an hour plus if they don't have the ability to wait 15 min or less? I'm guessing a smaller fraction of it.

In one of the past FP+ threads that have since been closed, the amount of "I'm not waiting in ANY line if it's more than 20 or 30 min" comments is pretty telling.

So if there is a Track A with 50 (FP) and a Track B with 100 (standy), and you eliminate Track A, My guess is Track B now becomes 110 (and not 150), as 40 from Track A say "I'm not waiting that long. I'm going to do something else".

Perhaps. I’m certainly one of those that will not wait an hour. I will either ride at a different time when the wait is shorter or not ride at all. That’s my choice. Let’s assume 50% will ride at some point and 50% will move to a different standby line. Either way they are dispersed somewhere. Either the line for a Mickey pretzel will grow, or the line for another ride will grow, or the resort pool will be more crowded. Those people have to go somewhere. And a portion will make standby lines longer.

 

[mrd7896]

it would be interesting to see what percentage of people would pay for a FP+ system or who would never.
i know since we have 0 idea of how it comes back it's hard to say what we would do now and whether we would stick by it once the plans are released

i feel like some ideas would be:

1. onsite guests get one or two included per day.
1a. maybe value and moderate get one, while deluxe get two. or onsite get two in general whereas anyone with admission get 1 fo' free
1c the bucket to choose from for freebies for onsite guests are for some more desirable attractions not just voyage of the little mermaid and IASW or swirling saucers at HS lol.

2. the ability to pay for headliners on some sort of scale.
2b. maybe to appeal to those spending the money to be onsite, they get first dibs like FP+ or at a lower starting price
2c. maybe the first ride you pay for is $10 per person, but the second is $7, 3rd is $3 or again some sort of scale to entice people
yikes that seems like it could have problems and is a logistical nightmare but hey i'm just spitballing?

I really think no matter what they release there are two things that disney will try to achieve
1. MAKE MONEY
2. drive guests to stay onsite

i'm just starting to really crunch the numbers (like in my previous post) and it does seem really ridiculous to charge $10 per attraction for something that used to be free. those families for once in a lifetime trips are about to shell out $50 per ride PER DAY and $10 seems to be on the conservative side.

i didn't notice until now that the Disneyland Paris was a day of thing which i'm hoping isn't what WDW will do.

 

[Missingmypooh]

100% this. What a lot of people in these boards forget is that the demographic for WDW is VERY different from the demographic in DLP or DLC. For WDW, the demographic is APPROXIMATELY 70%-ish (no one really knows other than Disney) are on their first trip to Disney. The majority of those visitors will never come back (they are one trip'ers). A percentage of them will make a second trip in their lifetimes. Usually this is a generational thing - the average person will visit (hopefully) once as a kid, once as a parent (bringing their kids) and once as a grandparent (bringing their grandkids). This is really what Disney is built on. Their model is based on these people going home and telling their friends they had a great time so their friends do the same thing and that the kids will want to come back as adults. WDW is not built around a model of everyone making annual (or more) trips.

They (Disney) are acutely aware of this demographic and fiercely protective of it. For WDW they will certainly make changes to provide a better experience for those 70% at the expense of locals and annual visitors. That's not to say (as you have noted) that they are targeting those people. If they can make it better for all, they certainly will. But if they have to make a choice, there is no doubt which choice they would make.

the “we only need first time visitors to be happy” is very flawed for any business.

here’s a quote from Inc about why that’s bad reasoning:
“The problem is that as the management team’s growth expectations (my emphasize: stockholders) increase, it gets increasingly harder to acquire more customers. As a result, customer acquisition costs go up and the quality of customers, in terms of how long they stick around, goes down.”

so either Disney needs to A.) exponentially increase prices to compensate for the lack of “first time visitors” or B.)they need to strike a balance between acquisitions and retention.

The scary thing about A is that they essential put all their eggs in one basket (cough cough like a pandemic where people are afraid to leave their house). Option B gives them diversification which pleases their stock holders.

 

[Mac30188]

it would be interesting to see what percentage of people would pay for a FP+ system or who would never.
i know since we have 0 idea of how it comes back it's hard to say what we would do now and whether we would stick by it once the plans are released

In a word, yes I would a pay. Fastpass has a huge impact in my day, and I would sacrifice snack, meals, length of stay or souvenir budget over Fastpass. The caveat is a lot depends on price point. $10 a fastpass is honestly not that bad. It is not great, but not horrible either. I would likely think of it as, I can spend $100 for a normal ticket, or $130 for a ticket that includes 3 Fastpass reservations. I am definitely going to spend $130. If that increases to $20 per ride, now I am probably going to look at it as a tactical tool that I only use for a very special situation. If it is $50 per ride, I can't see me using it in any way, shape or form.

 

[Wandering Oaken]

it would be interesting to see what percentage of people would pay for a FP+ system or who would never.
i know since we have 0 idea of how it comes back it's hard to say what we would do now and whether we would stick by it once the plans are released

i feel like some ideas would be:

1. onsite guests get one or two included per day.
1a. maybe value and moderate get one, while deluxe get two. or onsite get two in general whereas anyone with admission get 1 fo' free
1c the bucket to choose from for freebies for onsite guests are for some more desirable attractions not just voyage of the little mermaid and IASW or swirling saucers at HS lol.

2. the ability to pay for headliners on some sort of scale.
2b. maybe to appeal to those spending the money to be onsite, they get first dibs like FP+ or at a lower starting price
2c. maybe the first ride you pay for is $10 per person, but the second is $7, 3rd is $3 or again some sort of scale to entice people
yikes that seems like it could have problems and is a logistical nightmare but hey i'm just spitballing?

I really think no matter what they release there are two things that disney will try to achieve
1. MAKE MONEY
2. drive guests to stay onsite

i'm just starting to really crunch the numbers (like in my previous post) and it does seem really ridiculous to charge $10 per attraction for something that used to be free. those families for once in a lifetime trips are about to shell out $50 per ride PER DAY and $10 seems to be on the conservative side.

i didn't notice until now that the Disneyland Paris was a day of thing which i'm hoping isn't what WDW will do.

To do this they need to give some free to on-site guests or people are going to stay off-site for a cheaper rate.

 

[ST1TCH]

FWIW....for those who didn't follow the previous thread that is now closed.....there was a poster "Remy is up" who seemed to have some real insight into the IT department and what's been going on. He/she has since left the boards for one reason or another.

As of several weeks ago, Remy had reported that there is a new FP system that was being tested against the new infrastructure that was built in the past year once park reservations, etc were added. This new system had failed integration testing in the real environment several times. It is evidently very advanced and communicates with multiple platforms that the previous FP+ did not. The prior FP+ system has been tested against the live environment and passed. But they want to get this new system in place and so far have not decided to put the old FP+ system in place.

The general consensus based on that information is that this new FP system is part of the Genie system that was anounced in 2019 at D3 and it ties into many different things, implying that there will be levels based on hotel category, AP status, DVC ownership, etc etc etc. The other consensus seemed to be that this will likely be a hybrid system of some kind. It will NOT be all paid like Paris as that model just doesn't work with WDW. Likely you'll get X number of FP free per day based on the levels mentioned above and then have the ability to pay for more or pay for access on an app like DL, etc. It's also believed that surely they want this in place before the 50th starts but that will depend on if the development teams can deliver this module successfully to the live environment.

Take that for what it's worth.

 

[mrd7896]

To do this they need to give some free to on-site guests or people are going to stay off-site for a cheaper rate.

which is why i had mentioned i would hope onsite will get one or two for free

 

[dez1978]

I greatly appreciate all the great FP discussion. It is obvious that this topic is somewhat polarizing based on your park touring style.

I’m sure you could add more, but I’m going to classify WDW guests into these groups:

1. Uber planners - people who have ADRs booked at 180-days, have FP booked at 60-days, have at least a general plan for their park day, are able to get multiple FPs after their 3 are used.

2. Moderate Planners - people who booked their ADRs and FP in advance, but don’t necessarily like to be refreshing MDE in their phones all day trying to get more FP. Although they do it at least somewhat.

3. Anti-planners - even though these people have ADRs and FP, they like ultimate flexibility with their schedules and do not like having to plan things so far ahead (even though many of them do because they feel forced to). These people wish you could just change your mind and do whatever you feel like throughout the day and hate that Disney forces them to be more structured than they would like.

4. Newbies and the Uniformed - these are the poor inglorious souls who show up at MK and think they can just walk into Cinderella’s Royal Table fir dinner without a reservation and / or who ask the CM at the entrance at 7DMT how they can get a FP when they see the standby line is 150 minutes and people with FP are scanning their magic bands and walking past the standby queue.

Like i said, you could create more categories but I will go with this list for now. The current state of FP (or lack there of) is a blessing for Group 4 (Newbies & Uninformed). It puts them the closest to an even playing field they will ever get without having to do their homework. They probably will have no idea this is helping them, but perhaps most of them have a better overall park experience.

It sounds like we have some Group 3s in this thread and I understand their point of view. However, I would argue that while these folks might like park touring better without FP, they weren’t harmed as much compared to Group 4 back when FP was active. I would even argue this group was able to get the best of both worlds…they enjoyed FP when they had it but they could also opt to be spontaneous and not feel obliged to over engineer a plan. Of course, I understand if this group felt compelled to get the most out of FP so they could avoid long waits and that maximizing the FP system wasn’t their idea of a vacation.

But for those that fall into Group 1 (and admittedly that’s me), the lack of FP makes going to the park borderline unbearable. I will see how my family does this upcoming trip (Mid-August), but we are scared to death. We are usually the type that are in the parks from open to close each day. We do a ton of table service dining and shopping around our fast passes. We do not do a standby wait if it’s more than 25 minutes - ever. So we either have a FP or are spending money elsewhere. We do dessert parties, fireworks cruises, add-ons galore. We are prepping ourselves to only ride 3 - 4 rides per day because we will not wait in those lines. We will end up back at the pool most days and may go offsite for dinner.

I would guess that a lot of people on these boards fall into Group 1. This group is the most negatively impacted by the lack of FP. It has completely upended the way this group tours. And even amongst this group their is a divide. I would be happy to pay for FP right now because I’m so terrified of going to the park without it. My wife on the other hand, wants to sell our DVC if Disney rolls out a paid only FP system for WDW.

So it’s clear that the lack of FP is helping some but really destroyed WDW for others. I hope the powers that can be can find a balance with the new FP system that gives the planners the ability to plan somewhat but gives the non-planners more opportunity to be spontaneous. But whatever it is - please, please bring back some form of FP back as soon as possible!!!!!

See I am more of the group 1, like group 1.5 lol, but the other 7 ppl I travel with are group 3. And I can't just do my thing without them bc 3 of them are my husband and kids lol. So whatever comes back, I hope its more middle of the road, or allows the group 3 to still get to ride the big rides without having it mapped out months ahead of time. Tho to be fair, the group generally is ok with letting me plan all the things and they follow along. Begrudgingly, but they follow

 

[Wandering Oaken]

which is why i had mentioned i would hope onsite will get one or two for free

I saw. I agree with that. I would like to get at least two free for staying on-site and then I would just plan my day around that and not buy anymore.

 

[mrd7896]

I saw. I agree with that. I would like to get at least two free for staying on-site and then I would just plan my day around that and not buy anymore.

that would be lovely. i'm under the assumption that IF there are for free options, it won't be for the best attractions, ya know?

 

[Wandering Oaken]

that would be lovely. i'm under the assumption that IF there are for free options, it won't be for the best attractions, ya know?

Unfortunately, I think you're probably right.

 

[andyman8]

FWIW....for those who didn't follow the previous thread that is now closed.....there was a poster "Remy is up" who seemed to have some real insight into the IT department and what's been going on. He/she has since left the boards for one reason or another.

As of several weeks ago, Remy had reported that there is a new FP system that was being tested against the new infrastructure that was built in the past year once park reservations, etc were added. This new system had failed integration testing in the real environment several times. It is evidently very advanced and communicates with multiple platforms that the previous FP+ did not. The prior FP+ system has been tested against the live environment and passed. But they want to get this new system in place and so far have not decided to put the old FP+ system in place.

The general consensus based on that information is that this new FP system is part of the Genie system that was anounced in 2019 at D3 and it ties into many different things, implying that there will be levels based on hotel category, AP status, DVC ownership, etc etc etc. The other consensus seemed to be that this will likely be a hybrid system of some kind. It will NOT be all paid like Paris as that model just doesn't work with WDW. Likely you'll get X number of FP free per day based on the levels mentioned above and then have the ability to pay for more or pay for access on an app like DL, etc. It's also believed that surely they want this in place before the 50th starts but that will depend on if the development teams can deliver this module successfully to the live environment.

Take that for what it's worth.

A decision on the future of FP/FP+/DPA/Disney Access+ has not even been made yet. There are a variety of ideas being discussed, but as I've reiterated before, the lack of FP is not due to IT.

 

[Wandering Oaken]

A decision on the future of FP/FP+/DPA/Disney Access+ has not even been made yet. There are a variety of ideas being discussed, but as I've reiterated before, the lack of FP is not due to IT.

Did someone say that it was?