Do you think Disney will require vaccinations for Covid to board?

[BartmanLA]

Except it's not 100% effective, people could still pass infection, and DCL would be viewed as not taking what is considered standard precautions for really no legitimate reason.

If everyone on board the ship is vaccinated, it would virtually be 100% effective, even if the efficacy of the vaccines are around 94%, it gives everyone that received it pretty much immunity from contracting the virus, or from spreading to others since EVERYONE ELSE will also be vaccinated... I don't see how infection can be passed in those circumstances. AGAIN I know there will be some that won't be able to get the vaccine for health reasons, unfortunately for them if DCL mandates everyone boarding has the vaccine, NO MATTER if they are going to get off the ship or not, it creates this "bubble" everyone was raving about earlier this year when they were talking about rapid testing everyone coming on board, however that was misleading as someone could come in contact with a positive person prior to boarding and potentially infect others once they were on board. With a vaccine mandate from DCL this would actually create the bubble and it would be effectively infection free. DCL might have to draw the line on this and refuse boarding to anyone not vaccinated for what ever reason until the level of infection due to herd immunity or vaccination saturation, also I don't expect this to remain a permanent circumstance that DCL could implement. It's just at THIS time I'm going to stand on my belief that is the most logical way DCL could resume operations with full or nearly full ships by mandating this for guests and when availability indicates they'll be providing it to all crew on board ships as well.

 

[jlwhitney]

IF any of this gets implemented (I kind of hope it does for international travel short term because I see it a way to increase capacity and offerings even if masks stick around), I’d expect it to be short term. In fact, I’d hope that there could be a defined end goal to the requirement. Something like “r0 below x for three months,” or “less than x deaths or hospitalizations per 100k for three months,” or some other similar language.
A lot of the push back we see from the general public is because of an undefined end goal.

I agree with this. I also could see them not requiring it to be on the ship but if a country does and you don’t then you can’t get off at that port

I also don't think you can say that DCL will fill up without any problems by pointing to WDW. Other than masks, distancing, and some reduced experiences, there really isn't much difference at WDW. Even if people didn't go to the parks, they can still enjoy the resorts and the pools. They could go to Disney Springs. There are options there.

COVID restrictions on a cruise ship are likely to be VERY significant and overbearing on the experience, likely far more restrictive than what you get at WDW. Some of the stuff being talked about here and in other cruise forums like "reservations" just to go on the pool deck or anywhere else on the ship. No shows. No lounges. No shore excursions. Reduced food options. Masks everywhere, even on the open decks. No socializing at all, (which is the prime reason a lot of people like cruising to begin with.) Mandatory testing. Temperature checks multiple times a day. And now we are talking about mandatory vaccinations.

People are going to pay full price for this? Really? I mean people can spend their money however they want....but that's insane. How is this a vacation? I'd rather sit home for a week to be honest with you. There is no way in hell I'd pay thousands of dollars for this. With the way so many people and many government and companies have literally lost their minds over this virus....I will not go cruising again until the pandemic is over and all COVID restrictions are gone. If that never happens, I'll find other vacation options.

Even Disney is struggling to fill hotel rooms , so even with most things to do they still can't get people to go. I am DVC and there is so much availability in the coming months that you normally wouldn't have at this point.

I agree with you about cruising, we won't be going till restrictions are gone. I am gonna be interested to see what things look like closer to summer, once the vaccine is widely available and deaths/hospitilizations stay low I really see companies starting to push for more, they aren't gonna stay back silent and not make money longer than need be. It will come a point just like every other illness we vaccinate for that its gonna fall back on personal responsibility to protect themselves, yes there is a small amount that can't but that is rather small in the big picture. There is some hesitancy to get it right now but that will also change.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Even Disney is struggling to fill hotel rooms , so even with most things to do they still can't get people to go

I think they are okay with current status. There is not a lot of surplus theme park or dining availability any given day and they have reduced staffing a lot. I think they are more concerned with California than with expanding capacity and booking in Orlando.

I am DVC and there is so much availability in the coming months that you normally wouldn't have at this point.

And you have to pay dues next month anyway, so trust that Disney do not care. They have their piece even if you are not coming to campus and spending additional.

Travel is way down right now. Part of that is the personal responsibility of which you speak. They have not made any movement on the CDC requirements, and I think that is an active choice. The public relations issues and risks are substantively different for a cruise ship, and even closed loop cruises in Singapore have faced issues. And Singapore isn't a hot zone for spread like the entire US.

 

[sethschroeder]

I also don't think you can say that DCL will fill up without any problems by pointing to WDW.

I never said so I simply said people thought no one would go to WDW. As I outlined Disney is pretty good at gauging things and has tons of data possibly even surveys and such they have taken.

Also as outlined they might not be trying to fill up either. They might be able to run the ships at 30% and lose less money than having the ships shut down for an additional 6-12 months. Also Disney may be required to run at reduced capacity as well to hit the CDC or EU guidelines not sure.

if WDW requires masks, they are NOT going....and ultimately....they had a change of heart.

Sorry I do not take this as an actual recounting of events. There are lots of people not at WDW right now. Disney is operating at reduced capacities still at the current time. Only roughly 20-30% of people were opposed to masks to start with so most people were fine with masking in general.

So I would not categorically say people had a change of mind. Certain people have simply just stopped posting on the subject at this point or were told to stop posting on the subject to avoid arguments on every thread. I am sure some have changed their minds though.

but the similarity I think is a big one

You can think whatever you would like. I am telling you there is a drastic difference between masks and vaccinations for a portion of the US Citizens. Its why there is a large gap between those who oppose masks (small percentage) and those opposed to vaccine mandates (large percentage / over half).

You don't think its strange that 70-80% of people don't have issues with masks, 90% of people are vaccinated in some manner in the US, 10%-15% are vehemently against getting the COVID vaccine ever, yet over 50% of people are against a mandated vaccine?

Vaccination mandates by the government are a completely different beast than a mask requirement to many people.

I think you will see the same thing with vaccine...Of the 50-60% of people opposed to vaccines that you mentioned, there is likely a chunk, and I don't know how big a chunk, of people who would be persuaded to do it, if it benefits them. Which is where DCL comes in. I think there is a population of people who are opposed to a vaccine, but would still do it in order to keep their cruise.

Again you are missing the point DCL requiring it is non-relevant to the data collected. The data collected and outlined is for Government mandates not private business requirements. 85-90% of the US is planning on likely getting the COVID19 vaccine at some point in the future.

The point is Disney gains relatively nothing out of requiring the vaccine at the current time. I have yet to see a real benefit to Disney themselves (not another government entity) requiring the vaccine.

 

[jerry557]

I think they are okay with current status. There is not a lot of surplus theme park or dining availability any given day and they have reduced staffing a lot. I think they are more concerned with California than with expanding capacity and booking in Orlando.


And you have to pay dues next month anyway, so trust that Disney do not care. They have their piece even if you are not coming to campus and spending additional.

Travel is way down right now. Part of that is the personal responsibility of which you speak. They have not made any movement on the CDC requirements, and I think that is an active choice. The public relations issues and risks are substantively different for a cruise ship, and even closed loop cruises in Singapore have faced issues. And Singapore isn't a hot zone for spread like the entire US.

That's OK for the present, but do you think they want to continue that for all of 2021? 2022? Beyond? Eventually they are going to need to get the attendance levels back up to turn the profits that they are promising stockholders and investors. If what we see right now is the "new normal," then the entire travel industry is in trouble. And they don't realize it yet.

And DVC itself doesn't give Disney much profit. The dues are covering insurance, maintenance, and other expenses at the DVC resort. But where Disney truly profits from DVC is when members go on vacation and buy AP's, go to the parks, and spend money. Also if the economy goes south and people can't pay their dues or can't pay their loans and they go into default, that would be a very big problem. I don't know if Disney releases that kind of information, but in Florida right now the statistics are that nearly half of rental payments are past due. It's likely Disney has seen an uptick in past due DVC loan payments. I'd be almost certain of that.

 

[sethschroeder]

it would virtually be 100% effective

Except it is not 100%. If guests are having shore excursions there is increased risk of them acquiring the virus elsewhere. There is also a chance of the guest coming to Disney with the virus based on their flights.

EVERYONE ELSE will also be vaccinated

You are having 1000-4000 additional guests on board? At 5% that is 50-200 people who potentially could be infected including staff.

"bubble" everyone was raving about earlier this year

Except within the bubble there is still masking and distancing requirements. You are basically backing up what I said that restrictions will still be in place.

With a vaccine mandate from DCL this would actually create the bubble and it would be effectively infection free.

Except again people could come on board infected. During port days they could be infected as well. Then with no extra precaution spread to others who don't have immunity from the vaccine. You could create the exact same situation through rapid testing and masking.

I may have missed it but there isn't any trials that have tested if someone who had the vaccine could still pass on the virus either and be contagious. Which would be possibly a big thing for where the ship disembarks or has port days. They suggest or suspect but I am not sure the CDC, EU, or Disney can remove easily implemented restrictions like masking and testing over that.

 

[sethschroeder]

That's OK for the present, but do you think they want to continue that for all of 2021? 2022? Beyond? Eventually they are going to need to get the attendance levels back up to turn the profits that they are promising stockholders and investors. If what we see right now is the "new normal," then the entire travel industry is in trouble. And they don't realize it yet.

And DVC itself doesn't give Disney much profit. The dues are covering insurance, maintenance, and other expenses at the DVC resort. But where Disney truly profits from DVC is when members go on vacation and buy AP's, go to the parks, and spend money. Also if the economy goes south and people can't pay their dues or can't pay their loans and they go into default, that would be a very big problem. I don't know if Disney releases that kind of information, but in Florida right now the statistics are that nearly half of rental payments are past due. It's likely Disney has seen an uptick in past due DVC loan payments. I'd be almost certain of that.

They are opening new resorts over the course of the year and capacity has already been increased once.

I keep repeating this like a parrot but don't expect anything to be close to normal until 2022. That is when you can start to look at what the final state post-covid will likely be.

It is going to take pretty much all of 2022 to likely get the vast majority vaccinated. Then there will be slow removals of restrictions overtime with masking being the last to be removed likely. It will be interesting to see who is the first to start to remove some of the restrictions.

We likely will also see a ticket price increase coming as well while things like entertainment remain reduced to help Parks drive additional profit by cost cutting measures.

 

[jerry557]

We likely will also see a ticket price increase coming as well while things like entertainment remain reduced to help Parks drive additional profit by cost cutting measures.

Good luck with that.

 

[sethschroeder]

Good luck with that.

They pretty much do it every year and they still have increased attendance along side of it.

So yes I suspect Disney would have great luck with it. In addition it fits Chapek's view of increasing $ output per guest per park day.

Oh and Disney will just do some "discount" that is more than it was originally and people will buy in.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Disney appear to understand that recovery is not a light switch.

 

[jane01jp]

Never mind

 

[spiders]

I think the hope is that 70% are going to get vaccinated and at which point, restrictions might not be as necessary. But I think you’re going to see much different policies if only 40-50% get it. The writing is on the wall...everything is falling into place for you to prove you have been vaccinated.

There is certainly a sizable group who will not go if they are required to be vaccinated. There is also a sizable group who will only go if there is a requirement. I wouldn’t say I would only go if it’s a requirement but I’m pretty close. I can confidently say I’ll be on board at the end of 2021 if it is. I don’t know what the odds are I’ll be on if it isn’t.

 

[jane01jp]

Spain is apparently keeping a registry of everyone who refuses the vaccine and is sharing it with the EU.

 

[jane01jp]

I think the hope is that 70% are going to get vaccinated and at which point, restrictions might not be as necessary. But I think you’re going to see much different policies if only 40-50% get it. The writing is on the wall...everything is falling into place for you to prove you have been vaccinated.

There is certainly a sizable group who will not go if they are required to be vaccinated. There is also a sizable group who will only go if there is a requirement. I wouldn’t say I would only go if it’s a requirement but I’m pretty close. I can confidently say I’ll be on board at the end of 2021 if it is. I don’t know what the odds are I’ll be on if it isn’t.

I don't think the kids will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

 

[abigail12]

I want to go there with my kids. But I think they will not cruise without everybody on board being vaccinated.

 

[BartmanLA]

Except it is not 100%. If guests are having shore excursions there is increased risk of them acquiring the virus elsewhere. There is also a chance of the guest coming to Disney with the virus based on their flights.



You are having 1000-4000 additional guests on board? At 5% that is 50-200 people who potentially could be infected including staff.



Except within the bubble there is still masking and distancing requirements. You are basically backing up what I said that restrictions will still be in place.



Except again people could come on board infected. During port days they could be infected as well. Then with no extra precaution spread to others who don't have immunity from the vaccine. You could create the exact same situation through rapid testing and masking.

I may have missed it but there isn't any trials that have tested if someone who had the vaccine could still pass on the virus either and be contagious. Which would be possibly a big thing for where the ship disembarks or has port days. They suggest or suspect but I am not sure the CDC, EU, or Disney can remove easily implemented restrictions like masking and testing over that.

Your comments keep indicating that the people on board that ARE VACCINATED will get infected??? HOW SO? You keep ignoring the fact that if they require EVERY ONE on board to be vaccinated the chances of someone GETTING the infection or SPREADING the infection is ZERO... you keep harping on that people will get infected but if they're immune due to the vaccine that will NOT be the case.. So all your efforts to refute my statements are just not accurate. And with that I will leave my comments stand for what they are, and not engage in this point less debate any further as it serves no purpose for the people that frequent these threads.

 

[spiders]

I don't think the kids will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

I think you're going to see pediatric approval real quick once the states begin reaching general population phases.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You keep ignoring the fact that if they require EVERY ONE on board to be vaccinated the chances of someone GETTING the infection or SPREADING the infection is ZERO.

The chances of getting it are not zero, as the vaccination is not going to prevent people from infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/how-they-work.html

mRNA vaccines

contain material from the virus that causes COVID-19 that gives our cells instructions for how to make a harmless protein that is unique to the virus. After our cells make copies of the protein, they destroy the genetic material from the vaccine. Our bodies recognize that the protein should not be there and build T-lymphocytes and B-lymphocytes that will remember how to fight the virus that causes COVID-19 if we are infected in the future.

In fact, all three vax types in EUP and Phase 3 have some element of that - they protect if one is infected in the future. They do not prevent infection.

 

[BartmanLA]

The chances of getting it are not zero, as the vaccination is not going to prevent people from infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/how-they-work.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/mRNA.html

In fact, all three vax types in EUP and Phase 3 have some element of that - they protect if one is infected in the future. They do not prevent infection.

I think this is just wording, it still indicates that your body learns to fight off the virus if you're exposed to it (infected), personally I think it's a poorly worded statement. The vaccine provides your body the ability to resist (immunity) exposure to the virus in the future. It doesn't mean you become infected again. Anyway that's what I interpret it as. Pretty much all the experts that have been interviewed on TV and online have not refuted that the vaccine doesn't provide "immunity" so I think we can be expect that if everyone (100%) of guests boarding are vaccinated it will effectively reduce the chance of others getting sick greatly and we can expect to maintain our immunity through out the cruise.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

personally I think it's a poorly worded statement

They're the scientists, I'm going with them.