Do you think Disney will require vaccinations for Covid to board?

[BartmanLA]

They're the scientists, I'm going with them.

whatever

 

[jerry557]

Spain is apparently keeping a registry of everyone who refuses the vaccine and is sharing it with the EU.

They've been forced to backpeddle now. They are now claiming it's just "record-keeping" in order to keep track of people who have been offered the vaccine, and that there will be no repercussions for those that refuse. Spain also says they will not share the data with companies. Of course that's not satisfying the critics who don't like the idea of government databases. The UK has also floated the idea of a "immunity passport." But after controversy heated up they said they were just exploring ideas.

So who knows what will happen in Europe. But the United States government on multiple levels have said the vaccine won't be mandatory. In fact the Florida legislature (where WDW is and the ships sail out of Port Canaveral) is considering a bill in the upcoming session to ban mandatory vaccines by the state. So businesses are going to be on their own trying to enforce this. There won't be some big national database of vaccinated people a business can just scan and check the status. A business that wants to require vaccines will have to deal with an additional administrative burden. And that's not just a battle with customers/guests. It's also requiring it on employees. What if Disney requires the vaccine for cast members and some of them do not want the vaccine for one reason or another? Will those people be terminated? Will they have to sign waivers? What will the unions do? There will be lawsuits no doubt.

This is going to be a legal mess no matter how you cut it.

 

[dreamer17555]

Things to consider-

Vaccine rollout is not nearly going as quickly as promised.

Pediatric approval has yet to happen.

The length of immunity even with two dose of the vaccine is still being debated with some saying six months to a year and some saying hopefully several years. This will be a huge deal.

 

[jerry557]

It also depends on what one considers the "end" of the pandemic and when normalcy can come back. If we are going to wait for cases to go down to zero...it'll be years. Even with full vaccination compliance and the vaccine being highly effective, it will go into 2022 before we see cases drop to zero. And maybe longer. Maybe never.

Now, if we consider the pandemic over when it's under control....meaning cases aren't spiking anymore and that the healthcare system is managing it well and we are seeing a slow consistent decline in cases....then we are probably looking at 3rd or 4th quarter 2021.

Depends on what the goal is that we are shooting for. If the plan and the goal is to wait to make it so there is absolutely no possible COVID transmission on a cruise ship.....no one will be sailing in 2021. If we are willing to accept that there might be some transmission, then we might sail by the end of the year. So it really comes down to what people are willing to risk and what the cruise companies are willing to risk.

 

[Cheburashka]

I tend to agree. One of the things that has occurred to me is that even if COVID were instantly wiped out today, the obsession with health and cleanliness will persist for a while. That could be a good thing, within reason, but I expect there to be a reasonably lengthy half-life to the health obsession.

One thing to keep in mind is the reality that not everyone is health-preoccupied even now. Right or wrong (I'm not trying to start a debate, just stating an observation), a lot of people are "over" COVID precautions even right now, and a lot of people have never been highly concerned about COVID. I went to Disney World in July, during Florida's surge, and noticed some guests maskless in tight ride lines under the guise of eating & drinking. They just weren't at all concerned. There are a lot of people who are already living life just a slight bit off from normal. There are going to be plenty of people ready to cruise as soon as cruises become available. Many of the most health-obsessed types were never cruisers anyway, so they won't affect the industry's comeback.

 

[dreamer17555]

Depends on what the goal is that we are shooting for. If the plan and the goal is to wait to make it so there is absolutely no possible COVID transmission on a cruise ship.....no one will be sailing in 2021. If we are willing to accept that there might be some transmission, then we might sail by the end of the year. So it really comes down to what people are willing to risk and what the cruise companies are willing to risk.

My question is what is the plan if there is an outbreak on board?

 

[jane01jp]

One thing to keep in mind is the reality that not everyone is health-preoccupied even now. Right or wrong (I'm not trying to start a debate, just stating an observation), a lot of people are "over" COVID precautions even right now, and a lot of people have never been highly concerned about COVID. I went to Disney World in July, during Florida's surge, and noticed some guests maskless in tight ride lines under the guise of eating & drinking. They just weren't at all concerned. There are a lot of people who are already living life just a slight bit off from normal. There are going to be plenty of people ready to cruise as soon as cruises become available. Many of the most health-obsessed types were never cruisers anyway, so they won't affect the industry's comeback.

I hadn't really thought about it that way. The cruise industry likely appeals to a less physically-active clientele, on average, than some more active types of vacationing, such as hiking and backpacking trips.

 

[jane01jp]

They've been forced to backpeddle now. They are now claiming it's just "record-keeping" in order to keep track of people who have been offered the vaccine, and that there will be no repercussions for those that refuse. Spain also says they will not share the data with companies. Of course that's not satisfying the critics who don't like the idea of government databases. The UK has also floated the idea of a "immunity passport." But after controversy heated up they said they were just exploring ideas.

So who knows what will happen in Europe. But the United States government on multiple levels have said the vaccine won't be mandatory. In fact the Florida legislature (where WDW is and the ships sail out of Port Canaveral) is considering a bill in the upcoming session to ban mandatory vaccines by the state. So businesses are going to be on their own trying to enforce this. There won't be some big national database of vaccinated people a business can just scan and check the status. A business that wants to require vaccines will have to deal with an additional administrative burden. And that's not just a battle with customers/guests. It's also requiring it on employees. What if Disney requires the vaccine for cast members and some of them do not want the vaccine for one reason or another? Will those people be terminated? Will they have to sign waivers? What will the unions do? There will be lawsuits no doubt.

This is going to be a legal mess no matter how you cut it.

Yeah. There are a lot of considerations. It seems like it would be an easier matter for smaller travel companies than for those that have millions of visitors/passengers.

 

[Cheburashka]

And Disney is not going to set sail at 25-30% capacity. If they cannot contribute to the bottom line, then they will not sail. It has already been said by other cruise lines that they have to run at near 100% capacity to make money, I can't imagine that Disney is any different.

I find it very hard to believe that Disney has to run at near 100% capacity to make money. Mainly because of the very steep price increases of the past several years. They had the same fleet 7 years ago, but prices were much lower then and they also offered a few more complimentary services that they later cut while also raising prices. Presumably, they were making money 7 years ago. That, combined with the fact that they often sail significantly below 100% capacity already, leads me to believe that they can make a profit significantly below 100% capacity. Disney is not a fill-the-ship-at-any-cost cruise line- they were happy to keep a good number of cabins empty as long as that also helped keep prices high.

Now, I imagine even DCL would lose money sailing at 25% capacity, but another thing to consider is that building momentum among the public to cruise is one motivation for them to cruise, even when profits aren't yet there. Just like with the Orlando theme parks, which aren't profiting now, but at least are functioning and keeping Disney World vacations alive and available to the public. Most people will have to notice and register the fact that cruises are successfully running before they'll consider sailing on one. DCL has to start somewhere, probably with baby steps, just like WDW is doing with the parks.

 

[jerry557]

My question is what is the plan if there is an outbreak on board?

This depends on a lot of variables. A big one is whether or not people who are vaccinated are still able to spread the virus. We won't really know this for several months from now. But if it is discovered that vaccinated people DON'T spread the virus and its a very effective vaccine, then controlling an outbreak on board shouldnt be difficult. Since the virus will have less paths to spread, it won't spread as quickly. Mitigation strategies would likely limit it even if just 60% of the ship is vaccinated.

If however, vaccinated people are still able to spread the virus. That's a bigger problem. That means mitigation strategies probably won't stop a spreading COVID outbreak on a cruise ship. People who are vaccinated won't be sick. But everyone who walks off the ship may be infected. That would be a potential problem even if everyone is 100% vaccinated on board. Even if you are vaccinated, you could still carry the virus home or to any port the ship docks at.

 

[jane01jp]

Depends on what the goal is that we are shooting for.

That really has been the part that is hard to keep up with. Not with respect just to cruising, but with respect to the overall public health approach.

 

[Cheburashka]

My question is what is the plan if there is an outbreak on board?

And the bottom line really is, what will be the definition of "outbreak"? At Disney World, no vacationers are required to be tested for COVID, so whatever cases are spread there are pretty much below radar and do not impact operations. For cruising so far, everyone cruising is frequently tested even during the cruise, so all nonsymptomatic positive cases are being identified and labeled "outbreaks" in a way that does not occur with land-based trips. Even if no one feels ill, that brings the cruise to a halt.

With that extremely stringent standard for "outbreaks", I don't think cruising can successfully start until 2022. They're going to have to ease up on the onboard testing and only concern themselves with the significant spread of symptomatic cases if cruising is really going to get back underway next year.

 

[jane01jp]

Here is an article that came out today on the likely advent of a "vaccine passport" in order to be able to travel in 2021. The last sentence in the article is really interesting:

“Rest assured, the nerds are on it,” he said.

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/12/30/covid-vaccine-passport-travel/

 

[Birdie dog]

I think DCL is crazy not to require it. Firstly, if the guests aren't vaccinated and there's a breakout, there's a chance of people becoming seriously ill with quarantines and possible evacuations. If the entire ship is vaccinated, even if there is a breakout (vaccine is 95% effective) those people will not have many others to transmit to nor will those who have it be seriously ill and in need of hospitalisation. So, no quarantines except for sick guests to their cabin and the cruise moves on. Vaccines will save DCLs life in the short term. I also expect that staff will 100% be required to have a vaccine to work.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

I don't see DCL (or any other cruise line) requiring the vaccine (except for employees/crew), unless the ports being visited require it. Then it's not DCL requiring it.

 

[sethschroeder]

Your comments keep indicating that the people on board that ARE VACCINATED will get infected??? HOW SO? You keep ignoring the fact that if they require EVERY ONE on board to be vaccinated the chances of someone GETTING the infection or SPREADING the infection is ZERO

You are wrong and that is a factual statement. Is the chance of having someone get sick much less? Yes. It is zero? No.

The vaccine is not 100% preventative of getting COVID19 or spreading COVID19. Everyone will be traveling to port, many will be getting off at port stops, and everyone will be around all parts of the ship. There is a chance of community spread on the ship between those not protected by the vaccine (and by not protected I mean those who fall in to the small percentage that the vaccine does not work on).

Sorry there is a chance people will be getting sick. Its why I keep repeating they will need additional restrictions on board. In addition Disney is even putting out promo videos and posting disclaimers about masking and possibly other policies.

 

[sethschroeder]

Things to consider-

Vaccine rollout is not nearly going as quickly as promised.

Pediatric approval has yet to happen.

The length of immunity even with two dose of the vaccine is still being debated with some saying six months to a year and some saying hopefully several years. This will be a huge deal.

100%

My question is what is the plan if there is an outbreak on board?

I would suspect DCL will leverage hotel rooms at WDW. I could see those who test negative being let to leave immediately and those who test positive possibly have the choice of WDW hotel or required to rent car from the car rental in the ports.

I suspect though with daily testing, masking, and other preventions (likely increase in number of dinner services from 2 to 3 or 4) will make things more similar to the "bubbles" that we have witnessed.

 

[jlwhitney]

I suspect though with daily testing, masking, and other preventions (likely increase in number of dinner services from 2 to 3 or 4) will make things more similar to the "bubbles" that we have witnessed.

Very few are going to pay thousands (even hundreds) to have to be tested daily, wear masks and so on. The risk of not getting to enjoy your vacation will be too high and they will instead choose other places like they have done this year where they feel like they can still enjoy their trip with little worry.

 

[Birdie dog]

Very few are going to pay thousands (even hundreds) to have to be tested daily, wear masks and so on. The risk of not getting to enjoy your vacation will be too high and they will instead choose other places like they have done this year where they feel like they can still enjoy their trip with little worry.

100%. Quite frankly, if we can't do the things that we love to do on DCL, I'll pass. If there's a chance they would cancel my cruise and return early, I'll pass. If they have large parts of the ship closed and lock downs, I'll pass. I can spend my ridiculous amount of money elsewhere.
Vaccines will stop all of the above from happening. And DCL needs successful sales and successful voyages. They're going to go with the best chance to make money.

 

[sethschroeder]

Very few are going to pay thousands (even hundreds) to have to be tested daily, wear masks and so on. The risk of not getting to enjoy your vacation will be too high and they will instead choose other places like they have done this year where they feel like they can still enjoy their trip with little worry.

Well guess they won't be going on a cruise for another 12 months. We will see after that point.

Possibly will help with reduce capacity that they want to run at if they are trying to start up by summer.