DLT price speculation thread

[tjkraz]

History would disagree.

Many believed the resort studios at VGF would be more than the traditional studio. That didn't happen.
Many believed RIV would have a higher point chart than VGF. That didn't happen.
Many believed CC would have a higher point chart than BRV. That didn't happen either.

I was not one of the "many" people making those predictions. I suspect they're some of the same folks who are predicting a $250 launch price.

The prediction I've made in the past is that VDH will have a "standard view" which is cheaper than VGC and a "preferred view" which is equal or more expensive. Where that puts it relative to VGC depends on how many rooms are in each classification. In terms of optics, the standard view would give the appearance of being cheaper than VGC to buyers, with the reality that only a fraction of owners can actually book those rooms. Plus the standard view will literally overlook the neighborhood to the west.

Most who book at 7 months using other resort points will pay the higher preferred rate. Rooms will overlook the pool, they'll have some view of nighttime shows at both DL and DCA, and the whole thing is not far removed from the monorail station + new private gate to DCA.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

History would disagree.

Many believed the resort studios at VGF would be more than the traditional studio. That didn't happen.
Many believed RIV would have a higher point chart than VGF. That didn't happen.
Many believed CC would have a higher point chart than BRV. That didn't happen either.

DVC knows what it's doing. They want this thing to sell and book up. They have a hard enough time filling the DLR hotels as it is between Sunday and Thursday. They're constantly running specials for affinity groups (Disney Visa holders, APs, etc.). Availability is wide open at Disneyland.

Now, they'll have more grand villas to pump up and sell at higher points per night, but I don't expect a standard studio, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom to exceed VGC. VGC has a high enough point chart as it is.

I think the thing that people obsess over is that Riviera isn't attached to a theme park, so they say it's in a "bad location" and expected it to be priced like Saratoga Springs and Old Key West. They refuse to accept that Disney views the Skyliner as a premium perk in line with or even exceeding the monorail. Thus, Riviera gets cash pricing and a points chart that's in line with the flag ship monorail resorts.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Boldest prediction here!

I'm not super familiar with the geography Disneyland, but I think the only way we see points that exceed VGC is if they assign a premium view category to a certain side of the building and/or higher floors. I think "standard view" will absolutely be lower points per night than VGC.

 

[RoseGold]

They refuse to accept that Disney views the Skyliner as a premium perk in line with or even exceeding the monorail. Thus, Riviera gets cash pricing and a points chart that's in line with the flag ship monorail resorts.

You should let CB/Pop know about this discovery.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You should let CB/Pop know about this discovery.

What on Earth are you talking about? I said Disney views the Skyliner in line with the monorail. That doesn't mean they view a 300 square foot room at Caribbean Beach in line with a 425 square foot room at the Polynesian.

But since you brought it up, yep. Caribbean Beach is priced higher than Coronado Springs, and Pop Century is priced higher than All Star Movies. Because of the Skyliner.

 

[tjkraz]

That is false, it's a myth, it's always been a myth, and I've debunked it over and over again. Points charts are proportional to the cash prices of the hotels, always. Grand Floridian is more expensive than Bay Lake Tower is more expensive than Animal Kingdom Savannah is more expensive than Wilderness Lodge is more expensive than Animal Kingdom Standard. The rank-order of points charts is exactly in line with the rank-order of rack rates.

There are a few complications with Disneyland. First, DLH hotel rooms are 70 years old and do not have balconies. The villas will be brand new with balconies. Grand Californian used to be the only one of the 3 resorts with a private entrance to DCA. This year they opened another private entrance closer to PP/DLH.

DLH hotel rooms are clearly inferior to GC hotel rooms. The villas, not so much.

The fact that VGC doesn't have different views is also a complication. If you took the VGF Standard / Lake view charts and averaged them out (a la VGC), there actually are instances where Riviera's preferred view would be equal or more expensive. Does that mean a VDH Preferred View will be more expensive than VGC? I dunno. It's justification for at least making them equal. And all bets are off for the Pods and Grand Villas.

 

[limace]

I thought most the VDH will NOT have balconies?

 

[Rolem]

We used to own VGC but we sold them after a few years (wish I hadn't but there it is). Living about 6 hours away from DL, we almost always do last minute trips so the 11 month booking advantage was lost on us. I see the same issue for us with the new tower. Having said that, I will probably buy some points if runDisney does return to Anaheim.

 

[tjkraz]

I thought most the VDH will NOT have balconies?

Good point. Smack my hand for not double checking. Looks like the studios probably do not but the larger rooms do. So that's definitely a factor as well.

 

[RamblinWreck]

The Villas at Disneyland Hotel will cost fewer points than the Villas at Grand Californian because the Disneyland Hotel (cash) is cheaper than the Grand Californian Hotel (cash).

Generally, I would agree with you regarding the comps to other resorts (especially in Florida).

But they don’t really have to factor the Grand Californian in. It’s so tiny, demand for their rooms is already insanely competitive, and contracts are few and far between.

They can go ahead and make VDH ridiculous in comparison to VGC. It’s not like in Florida where you have a huge number of alternatives. If the demand is there for DVC, VGC being a better deal won’t deter sales of VDH in my opinion. It will just make VGC owners feel like winners.



But the other part, the comps to the hotel room rates at VDH specifically, I fully agree with you.

Disneyland Hotel is not that expensive and it’s not the best location compared to their other hotels. You can't justify an insane price that results in you paying near what the hotel rack rates are. People won't go for it.


I’m going to predict points will sell at the same price as all other DVC points, with a point chart similar to Bay Lake Tower. Maybe a little higher.

 

[Jlo85]

VGF2 is on-track to be sold-out by early next year. I think VDH will fill the spot of the expensive active selling resort that VGF2 currently has. Also, wouldn't be surprised if they gouge the price because 1) they can and 2) California. I think $220 if they don't gouge, $250 if they do.

 

[tidefan]

They can go ahead and make VDH ridiculous in comparison to VGC. It’s not like in Florida where you have a huge number of alternatives. If the demand is there for DVC, VGC being a better deal won’t deter sales of VDH in my opinion. It will just make VGC owners feel like winners.

But that's just it. There ARE a huge number of alternatives. You just don't get the same level of necessity for on-site as you do in Florida. As mentioned before, many hotels are closer to the gate for DL/DCA than VDH will be, and they will be significantly cheaper and won't require a $10,000-$30,000 buy in...

They don't necessarily have to compete with that in Florida, but they do in California.

 

[tidefan]

VGF2 is on-track to be sold-out by early next year. I think VDH will fill the spot of the expensive active selling resort that VGF2 currently has. Also, wouldn't be surprised if they gouge the price because 1) they can and 2) California. I think $220 if they don't gouge, $250 if they do.

According to the latest DVCNews article, based on current sales, they were thinking November 2023

 

[KTownRaider]

VGF2 is on-track to be sold-out by early next year.

As someone who would like to see resale value rise sooner vs later (in part due to sold out direct pricing), this is unlikely barring a major bump in incentives.

'Should Grand Floridian continue to match its most recent 3-month average of 73,325 points, the resort will remain in active sales until at least November 2023'

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...loridian-dominate-direct-sales-in-august-2022

 

[RamblinWreck]

But that's just it. There ARE a huge number of alternatives. You just don't get the same level of necessity for on-site as you do in Florida. As mentioned before, many hotels are closer to the gate for DL/DCA than VDH will be, and they will be significantly cheaper and won't require a $10,000-$30,000 buy in...

They don't necessarily have to compete with that in Florida, but they do in California.

Other hotels to compete with, sure. Including the hotel the new tower will be attached to.

What I'm saying is there isn't any competition from the DVC side. Which in Florida, there's a huge amount of competition, especially as soon as someone hears the word "resale".

 

[Jlo85]

According to the latest DVCNews article, based on current sales, they were thinking November 2023

I misread, my bad - you're right. Still, timing could work out for VDH to fill in for VGF.

Is good to also note that most DVC sales are in January and March, so it could sell out sooner.

 

[tidefan]

Other hotels to compete with, sure. Including the hotel the new tower will be attached to.

What I'm saying is there isn't any competition from the DVC side. Which in Florida, there's a huge amount of competition, especially as soon as someone hears the word "resale".

I get that, but as a DVC member, they still have to convince me that putting a lot of $$ down is a better option for an every 2-3 year trip than just booking at the Westin or Hilton, when I can walk to the parks from either of those as well, and I can usually cancel those up to a couple nights before with no penalty if something comes up...

 

[RamblinWreck]

I get that, but as a DVC member, they still have to convince me that putting a lot of $$ down is a better option for an every 2-3 year trip than just booking at the Westin or Hilton, when I can walk to the parks from either of those as well, and I can usually cancel those up to a couple nights before with no penalty if something comes up...

I agree!

That was sort of the point of the second half of my post you were referencing. It's just that I wasn't really factoring in other hotels and just focusing on DLH itself.

That's why I expect the points to sell for the same price as all the other DVC points, and the point chart to be more or less in line with Bay Lake Tower at the Contemporary.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That's why I expect the points to sell for the same price as all the other DVC points, and the point chart to be more or less in line with Bay Lake Tower at the Contemporary.

More than high or low, I'll be interested to see how they balance simple versus complicated. Bay Lake Tower's three view categories trail only Aulani and Animal Kingdom's four (and Animal Kingdom Club and Value are so hard to get that it's functionally really only two).

 

[kristenrice]

Because if that's the case, I think most people would just stay at the Best Western/Westin/Fairfield/Howard Johnson/etc. across the street... DL is very different in that the DL Hotels are also competing much more with off-site accommodations than in Florida.

I think a high point chart (higher than VGC) would turn off many potential buyers and they'd just stay at the Element (like we are doing next year!) or something like that...

Thank you for the explanation....
I've never been to CA/DL so I have NO idea what the layout is. My only "knowledge" is from the research I have done online and from reading and watching countless videos on the history of Disneyland. I appreciate every bit of input and first-hand information that people provide so that I can broaden my own knowledge base.