DLT price speculation thread

[RoseGold]

There's one more lever that no one has even mentioned, and that's the contract length. Even in this thread, we throw around 50 year RIV to 44 year VGF as if they are equal.

I think VGF has shown that the math works with a shorter contract and the winner with that is Disney. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40 year, or even shorter. VGC will have 36 years left. That seems short to me, but I guess it's possible. Because they can.

So, contract length, charts, price, and resale restrictions. I expect Disney to use all of them.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Wonder if we will still be in the recession the Fed is trying to put us in by the launch of DLT?

The fed is doing everything it can to pull us through this recession we already are already in - but I suspect that there will still be major macro-economic headwinds next year and it could affect the price.
If I could have chose a number below $207 I would...based on where interest rates could be and the high number of points required to buy-in for new owners.

Also, if VGF sells out at the end of next year, I think the replacement will be the Poly sales in 2024 - not DLT.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The fed is doing everything it can to pull us through this recession we already are already in - but I suspect that there will still be major macro-economic headwinds next year and it could affect the price.

The only thing the Fed is doing is raising interest rates to combat inflation. They're not doing anything to "pull us through" a recession, they're going to trigger or deepen the recession to fight inflation.

If I could have chose a number below $207 I would...based on where interest rates could be and the high number of points required to buy-in for new owners.

DVC has never cut base prices, have they? They've only gone up. If you mean that they will be discounted below the base price, I agree, but if you mean they're actually going to cut base price below where VGF, RIV, and Aulani are, I don't think there's any chance of that.

Also, if VGF sells out at the end of next year, I think the replacement will be the Poly sales in 2024 - not DLT.

Yup. The overlap of people who are interested in owning DVC in Orlando and interested in owning DVC in California is extremely thin, but disproportionately represented by people who post in threads like this.

 

[NorCalDisFan]

My gut feeling is that it’s going to be 250-260 pp since it's in CA and aligned with VGC’s direct pp. I hope VGC resale would be sliding down to a little below to the vdh direct pp and I would buy one of them or both.

 

[Sandisw]

The only thing the Fed is doing is raising interest rates to combat inflation. They're not doing anything to "pull us through" a recession, they're going to trigger or deepen the recession to fight inflation.


DVC has never cut base prices, have they? They've only gone up. If you mean that they will be discounted below the base price, I agree, but if you mean they're actually going to cut base price below where VGF, RIV, and Aulani are, I don't think there's any chance of that.


Yup. The overlap of people who are interested in owning DVC in Orlando and interested in owning DVC in California is extremely thin, but disproportionately represented by people who post in threads like this.

IIRC, Base price has only gone down twice…once when treehouses went on sale at SSR and then with VGF when it went back on sale.

But, new resorts have always been started at a base price higher than the last one.

 

[edna mode]

So, if this helps. I live on the same street as DL about a 13 min drive. We park in Mickey and Friends and often walk from the parking lot to the monorail at DTD which enters into tomorrowland. The walk is 10 min. from the DL hotel, but the security takes a few minutes and is rarely backed up with the exception of early morning and weekend evenings. You can enter CA through the main gate or through GC hotel, but it is more of a walk to pivot through. The monorail entrance is about 2 minutes from security. When the new creation of the DTD District is finished this will most likely have other possible entrances. Everyone has always wanted a second stop into CA on the monorail, so it would be nice if that happened.

We have been watching the construction as it progresses, but not one person I know locally is planning to buy at this point. The prices for the hotels have skyrocketed over the years, so locals rarely stay on property anymore when we can drive from our homes. Before the pandemic, everyone in the neighborhood and from our various schools had an annual pass and we would meet for dinner, dessert, swing dancing or just coffee and a couple rides in the morning. Since the prices increased, we are the only family in the neighborhood who renewed our passes. It has become VERY difficult to get dates to go the parks or to coordinate a simple visit with friends since one person can get a reservation and another cannot. The hotel discounts for passholders (Magic Key) keep the rates so incredibly high that I don't know anyone who goes to stay for a night or weekend anymore. Friends have told me that they are not interested in buying VDH because there is no guarantee that they will be able to get into the parks on the day they reserve their hotel stays 7 months earlier.

Because this is a 'boutique' resort there is less to do on property for a full week's stay, but a million things to do outside of the resorts with cheaper and much larger room options. It is true what many people have said on this thread that locals do not visit WDW very much... most of my friends have never been there and sadly know little about it. Very few people know much about DVC here either. So, I am finding the new villas to be a bit of a mystery and how well it will sell is anybody's guess. But, I think I can say with confidence that Southern Californians are so upset about the prices of the passes here and the difficulty of getting into the parks at a $1600 per pass will not be jumping to buy into this new DVC experience.

 

[RoseGold]

not one person I know locally is planning to buy at this point. The prices for the hotels have skyrocketed over the years, so locals rarely stay on property anymore when we can drive from our homes.

I mean yea. If you can drive home, you probably aren't the target audience.

 

[elenex]

I think the base price will be the going rate, probably 215 after the January increase. The points chart will start below VGC.

Locals and West coast vacationers will need incentives to buy, and the new lounge and hopefully MM will not be enough because there are too many non-Disney hotel offerings closer to the parks than this is. price incentives will start out weak, but by December '23 they'll be increase, probably significantly.

We are recent East coast transplants and bought our first VGC contract recently. We are close enough to DLR to be MK holders and take frequent vacations but are not locals.

Point blank, Grand Cal is just a much better resort. The VDH are incredibly poorly located and is legitimately 15-20 minutes to either park (as opposed to 5-10). The monorail falls under attractions, not transportation budget in DLR and is poorly staffed and as mentioned above closed if it's hot outside. It can't be relied on to get you to the park or skip any entrance lines. The pools at DLH are overcrowded and even with a new pool, it won't be enough. Most of the views will suck at VDH. I could go on and on.

All that said, we'll probably buy some points there if they are significantly cheaper than VGC. I think where they will make the money is in the very few premium view rooms and expect a point chart ala BLT where standard view will fall before VGC rates, but pool view will be above, possibly well above. Honestly the views from standard are going to be extremely poor, and that premium view upsell is where Disney will cash in. It can easily be justified too, since there are no separate categories at VGC for premium view and most of their views are obstructed by plant life

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The VDH are incredibly poorly located and is legitimately 15-20 minutes to either park (as opposed to 5-10).

I'm sorry, I agree with the rest of your post but this is a tad dramatic. If it takes you more than 10 minutes to walk from any part of DLH to the esplanade, you're dawdling.

 

[elenex]

I'm sorry, I agree with the rest of your post but this is a tad dramatic. If it takes you more than 10 minutes to walk from any part of DLH to the esplanade, you're dawdling.

Well I travel with a 3 year old and based on my stay in the frontier tower on April, yes it does take 15-20 minutes. I failed to factor in the time loss for security checkpoint, so you are probably correct. Google maps puts it at 12 minutes frontier to esplanade without the security stop at normal adult walking speed. Add in the toddler and the checkpoint and you've got 15-20.

My point is, it's about double the distance of VGC, the tower has the worst location within DLH, and there are several non-Disney properties with equal or less walking distance.

 

[limace]

I always laugh about the location complaints re DLH-it’s still as close or closer than any WDW hotels to a park. But the point re offsite resorts is a good one-and if all you want is a decent hotel, there are a million good options close by and we’ve had great stays at many of them.

We own at VGC and love it-we do a two bedroom every other year. I much prefer the DLH aesthetic where my husband is a huge fan of the craftsman style. They are both wonderful properties. I think comparing to the grand re sales is kind of irrelevant as the two resorts won’t be in competition for direct sale-if you want direct, it’ll be VDH or nothing.

But I also don’t think there’s really a case to be made for buying direct at all. At least for me-just like VGC I’ll only use these points at DL, so if I can get resale points for $130 in a year, I’ll do that.

 

[floridavet]

I always laugh about the location complaints re DLH-it’s still as close or closer than any WDW hotels to a park. But the point re offsite resorts is a good one-and if all you want is a decent hotel, there are a million good options close by and we’ve had great stays at many of them.

We own at VGC and love it-we do a two bedroom every other year. I much prefer the DLH aesthetic where my husband is a huge fan of the craftsman style. They are both wonderful properties. I think comparing to the grand re sales is kind of irrelevant as the two resorts won’t be in competition for direct sale-if you want direct, it’ll be VDH or nothing.

But I also don’t think there’s really a case to be made for buying direct at all. At least for me-just like VGC I’ll only use these points at DL, so if I can get resale points for $130 in a year, I’ll do that.

Agreed....if you are comparing it to VGC then sure it is further. That being said its 0.7 miles to the Esplanade from the Frontier building per maps. That is the same exact distance as the walk from Spaceship Earth to the Morocco Pavilion. When I went to Disney two weeks ago I hit 25k steps both days (Magic Kingdom and Epcot). 0.7 miles is a proverbial walk in the park if you are about to go to Disney.

 

[tjkraz]

Grand Californian makes Disneyland Hotel look "far" from the parks. It simply isn't far when using any Walt Disney World travel as a point of reference.

 

[geargrinder]

Exactly! When I measured google earth, DLH and BLT are nearly identical in distance to front gates at just over 0.5 miles. Yes, it might be further than Grand Cal, but it's really insignificant to the total distance you are going to walk during the day.

 

[elenex]

It's apples to oranges. The walk from BWV to epcot is about the same distance, but at least imo, GC feels like it's a part of a cohesive Disney bubble. DLH feels like it's just outside the gate. Which is fine and still very close, but aside from nostalgia i have trouble saying it's worth 2-3x the hotels just outside the harbor gate.

The conversation is about VDH versus VGC in relation to whether Disney can charge more points for the same room type. WDW is a completely different animal and the intimacy of DLR is part of its charm. The walk is further, and it's noticeable, but it's still very manageable by any standard. But can a 20 point studio at VGC cost 22 or 50? at VDH as some have suggested with a longer walk and a view of.. Anaheim? No. And if locals are going to stay nearby, will they pay more for VDH than VGC? No, and if they want to save cash they'll general stay on harbor.

 

[DeeBee3]

I vote Disney will either slash prices to sell, or wait to sell because the economy is going to prevent people from making luxury purchases such as this. I think it depends on far along construction is or where Disney's corporate finances are at that point.

 

[Sunnyore]

So, if this helps. I live on the same street as DL about a 13 min drive. We park in Mickey and Friends and often walk from the parking lot to the monorail at DTD which enters into tomorrowland. The walk is 10 min. from the DL hotel, but the security takes a few minutes and is rarely backed up with the exception of early morning and weekend evenings. You can enter CA through the main gate or through GC hotel, but it is more of a walk to pivot through. The monorail entrance is about 2 minutes from security. When the new creation of the DTD District is finished this will most likely have other possible entrances. Everyone has always wanted a second stop into CA on the monorail, so it would be nice if that happened.

We have been watching the construction as it progresses, but not one person I know locally is planning to buy at this point. The prices for the hotels have skyrocketed over the years, so locals rarely stay on property anymore when we can drive from our homes. Before the pandemic, everyone in the neighborhood and from our various schools had an annual pass and we would meet for dinner, dessert, swing dancing or just coffee and a couple rides in the morning. Since the prices increased, we are the only family in the neighborhood who renewed our passes. It has become VERY difficult to get dates to go the parks or to coordinate a simple visit with friends since one person can get a reservation and another cannot. The hotel discounts for passholders (Magic Key) keep the rates so incredibly high that I don't know anyone who goes to stay for a night or weekend anymore. Friends have told me that they are not interested in buying VDH because there is no guarantee that they will be able to get into the parks on the day they reserve their hotel stays 7 months earlier.

Because this is a 'boutique' resort there is less to do on property for a full week's stay, but a million things to do outside of the resorts with cheaper and much larger room options. It is true what many people have said on this thread that locals do not visit WDW very much... most of my friends have never been there and sadly know little about it. Very few people know much about DVC here either. So, I am finding the new villas to be a bit of a mystery and how well it will sell is anybody's guess. But, I think I can say with confidence that Southern Californians are so upset about the prices of the passes here and the difficulty of getting into the parks at a $1600 per pass will not be jumping to buy into this new DVC experience.

I live about 12 min drive away from Disneyland and I am very interested in buying in at VDH. Of course it’ll depend on the price too and I’m hoping it’ll be closer to $200 than VGC pricing. Also will depend on point chart as well. My friend that’s a DVC member lives nearby too and is also interested in buying in. We’re all looking at small point contracts though, mainly to use for a short staycation visit. Sure it’s easy to drive to dland but the feel of the visit is very different when staying on site. If there’s tons of availability though at 7 months then it might not be necessary to have home resort advantage. So lots to consider still. I’ll admit I’m checking VGC resale daily to see if there’s something I can bid on.

I know people were complaining about the reservation issue but for locals, this past year has pretty much been a non-issue no? I get if I lived far away and my visit includes hotel bookings and plane tickets, it would be frustrating to try to plan and not have park reservations available already secured. But as a local, I can go whenever I want and I can’t recall a day where I wasn’t able to score a park reservation the night before. I dont even bother to reserve using my 6 allotment reservations anymore.

 

[RoseGold]

But as a local, I can go whenever I want and I can’t recall a day where I wasn’t able to score a park reservation the night before.

This has been beaten to death in the AP threads, but there is a lawsuit pending about this issue in CA. I would not bet on the current AP park reservation availability being permanent. There are a whole lot of ways Disney can keep out the unfavorable mix going forward.

 

[DL1WDW2]

Love the local sentiment provided above.
Fair Warning : DL can be frustrating over many many years to book resort & hotels because locals grab up that one night holiday stay or one night Saturday night .
Good luck trying to book vacation days destination without finding No Availabilty in the middle of your plans for that trip.
Fast forward to the 11/7 month booking window for new DL DVC .
Time to start walking now! Haha
I would never buy into DVC again without booking a guaranteed week .
And I have VWL ( will never call it BRV ) and BLT points .

I think $220 with a lot of confusing incentives to make the price seem like a bargain .

 

[limace]

I have never not been able to get the stay I want at VGC within my 11-7 month window so I’m not having the experience PP is describing above.