Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

No love for BRV?

I only see us losing 2 resorts, HHI & VB.
BCV, BRV & BWV will most likely be resold allowing current eligible owners to continue to book there. It will of course be a blow to those with non grandfathered resale contracts.

Does anybody have any idea what percentage of resale is currently grandfathered and/or what percentage of grandfathered resale will still exist after 2042? I believe it’s at least possible to have grandfathered resale at AKV, PVB, SSR, VGC, VGF, BLT, and AUL post 2042…but I think many of those resorts would have been very new when the restrictions kicked in so I would not expect much of their resale is grandfathered?

 

[Ruttangel]

It's a situation that doesn't have an easy answer, I'm afraid. Current DVC leadership seems to operate under the general premise of "DVC Resale is the devil."

Easy to forget that Disney has sold 100% of all resale contracts as direct developer points at some point, in fact sometimes sold the same points twice or even more if they get them back via foreclosure or ROFR
I don’t believe they think resale is evil, more that they see it as an annoying byproduct of the way they operate the club
I honestly don’t think they are losing that many sales, properties are still getting sold out and in the meantime lots of rooms get backfilled by cash guests
My main concern with current DVC strategy is that everything is becoming DVC, how do you keep it special if higher and higher %age of deluxe rooms are owned by us
They want to shift occupancy risk to us but things like the cabins whilst they make sense financially made no sense when comparing to the rest of the product
That doesn’t give me confidence in the decision makers

 

[eticketplease]

Does anybody have any idea what percentage of resale is currently grandfathered and/or what percentage of grandfathered resale will still exist after 2042? I believe it’s at least possible to have grandfathered resale at AKV, PVB, SSR, VGC, VGF, BLT, and AUL post 2042…but I think many of those resorts would have been very new when the restrictions kicked in so I would not expect much of their resale is grandfathered?

I am not sure anyone would know.
Remember there are different dates for the grandfathered points. The one that imo that has the biggest impact is for contracts on/before 1/19/2019 allowing the points to be used at any resort. If your points are in that camp they could have been from any of the O14 resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

Personally, I consider MMB to be a downgrade for direct members by making the lounges essentially pay-for-play.

Well, they paired that with things that have real value…memory maker, BOGO free OTU points and the ability to use points for an AP, not to mention the tickets.

So, yes, they made the lounge access wait times longer by including it, but the value in MMB for those above things is seen by many as a good trade off.

And, that is how it always is with works. The Sorcerer Pass is a benefit that doesn’t work for all so some are winners and some are not.

My guess is that is what DVC will continue to do as it plays the long game…try to add extras that are seen by a good portion of members as a net win.

 

[Sandisw]

Does anybody have any idea what percentage of resale is currently grandfathered and/or what percentage of grandfathered resale will still exist after 2042? I believe it’s at least possible to have grandfathered resale at AKV, PVB, SSR, VGC, VGF, BLT, and AUL post 2042…but I think many of those resorts would have been very new when the restrictions kicked in so I would not expect much of their resale is grandfathered?

We know all contracts bought post 2019 are restricted from restricted resorts.

The hard part is whether the contracts are already restricted when they are selling.

For example, I bought a BLT contract in 2020, so it was blocked from RIV, and sold it in 2021..that sale didn’t impact the % of restricted contracts at all.

So, what one would have to do with every sale is see when the owner bought to get an idea of how many resale contracts are moving columns.

From posts over the years, it has been stated that maybe 1% of owners who are selling each year are the original owners of those contracts…meaning they were brought direct.

Let’s use BLT for example…opened in 2009…so, by 2042, it will have contracts 33 years old…using that 1% figure, you’d maybe have 33% restricted.

Add in that there might also be some bought resale before 2019 that are now restricted? It might be a bit higher than that?


That is just one resort, so by 2042, there certainly will be a decent amount of points in the system that can’t trade to the newer resorts that show up.

So, as time goes on, and those popular resorts expire in 2042, resale owners will be left with fewer choices.

The hope is that those with direct points or grandfathered resale points at places like BLT, CCv, PVB, and VGF will want to trade to the new resorts so those restricted have options like today.

And, I think DVD is currently fine with making resale be seen as an option to stay on property for less but just with fewer options, including being restricted to just one resort.

 

[tidefan]

Well, they paired that with things that have real value…memory maker, BOGO free OTU points and the ability to use points for an AP, not to mention the tickets.

So, yes, they made the lounge access wait times longer by including it, but the value in MMB for those above things is seen by many as a good trade off.

And, that is how it always is with works. The Sorcerer Pass is a benefit that doesn’t work for all so some are winners and some are not.

My guess is that is what DVC will continue to do as it plays the long game…try to add extras that are seen by a good portion of members as a net win.

Yeah, I get that, but for us, we always actually bank most every year, so the OTUP has no value for us, and as we’ve been members since 2007, we don’t use the Memory Maker.

So for us, the only effect is the longer wait times at lounges. When we went last year, even prior to MMB, we usually waited 30 minutes or so at the Epcot lounge, so I imagine that is going to increase quite a bit.

Quite honestly, I’d rather just have a snack credit than the lounge, but that’s just me.

 

[Girlstar30]

I agree with you and I think Disney is very smart to "punish" resale members because it does result in direct sales. Most people that own dvc and resale have at least 150 points direct so they can get these membership benefits.

You are treated differently as resale only and if you're a huge Disney fan like I am it does make you feel some type of way when people post about MM and reading about dvc parade viewings and meetups with Disney historians for DVC members when you are a DVC member, will be at the location, but you can't go.

Being blocked out of hotels you love sucks. Asking for swag and them looking you up and seeing that you are "resale only" and giving you something not as good sucks.

Not being able to access a lounge for DVC members when you are once again a DVC member sucks.

Cast members asking if you are dvc for a discount and you saying yes because you are and then them asking to see your membership and hoping they dont scan the card sucks. Usually they dont scan it, but the one time they do you feel like you're doing something wrong which of course you are because you know you're not entitled even though you are a dvc member and they asked that.

You cant be excited like everyone else for any new hotels they are building because you know you're out. And then there's the gray areas such as the Halloween party tickets where they let us purchase it through the app and it doesn't SAY you need DVC Y to purchase anywhere on the app so you truly are confused if youre eligible, but on some Google searches it says you do need to be DVC Y so now you have to weigh if you should risk it because its letting you or else what will happen, SUCKS. I can go on with more stuff (2042, prices going up later when u need direct etc)

My point is DVC has made it very clear how they feel about resale. I've seen guides face change when they find out im all resale, almost like they're wasting their time or you did Disney wrong

I would never buy direct if it wasnt for all these little leaving you out of things, gray areas to worry about and different treatment. Resale is still paying thousands of dollars. An extra $9000 to have 1 direct contract on sale with incentives is worth it imo after my short experience as resale only. As much as I've tried to convince myself it doesn't bother me, it does period.

With all these little slights there is no way they are going to reward resale with anything imo. Quite the opposite.

Having just gone to a villa tour with a guide yesterday their sales tactics are more than good enough to pull people in with direct.

They did all the old tricks with us, telling us we will get extra points if we buy direct with our December UY, telling us we will be able to trade points for cruises and world travel, showing us how cheap it is with a 15 year loan we would only have to pay $200 something to stay in this gorgeous room. Hell, I know all the bs and I was still tempted to sign on the dotted line I fully expect the current trends to continue.

I have absolutely no regrets doing things the way we have and if I could do it over again I wouldnt change a thing. But we will be buying direct within the next two years because of how Disney has structured things unfortunately.

 

[Girlstar30]

There are plenty of perks for Florida residents for WDW. They never bought into DVC. So a direct buy into DVC is not necessary to ‘deserve’ perks. But perks come if they are seen to create a result that WDW wants. WDW seems to think they get more $$ per Florida residents by giving huge discounts on passes versus requiring them to buy the Incredipass. If DVC resale members would results in more $$ for WDW by offering the pixie pass, they would do it. My thought is that there are so many resale points being rented out, that perks to the owners don’t generate WDW $$. The perks would only go to the owners, and they aren’t using the points anyways.

Yeah they dont do it because they dont need to period. They already know we're coming and most of us go to the parks and need tickets or annual passes and are locked into staying at WDW. We are Disney fans that paid thousands for this, we have the money to afford Disney trips, we are going to pay for whatever pass or ticket discount they give us.

 

[Girlstar30]

And you can do that! Resale owners can participate in Pay It Forward, unless you live in a verboten state (as I do). But, that has to be weighed against the benefits (to DVD) of differentiating the resale product. If DVD believes that the latter outweighs the former, that's what they are going to do.

What is Pay It Forward?

 

[Girlstar30]

So many interesting points raised on this thread— but one thing I haven’t seen yet is how Disney continuing to build out *DVC capacity* much faster than it’s building out park capacity — yes, there are a lot of us Disney diehards—but are there enough to absorb another thousand units every few years? I think this is where Disney may be wiser to keep resale members (and mixed members) feeling appreciated, especially if it costs them nothing and they may even profit. @DonkeyHoTay gave a great example of MMB— I seriously doubt it costs Disney money, like yes, they are selling points a bit cheaper but they are also getting more people to visit more, and buy more of the park tickets, or perhaps plan extra trips to enjoy memory maker, etc. Offering MMB (and lounge access on slower period times?) for a higher premium might be a win-win, or perhaps letting them buy up to 40 premium OTUP to spend a night or two checking out RIV or VDH in hopes they might buy there?

We started as Y card owners (200 points) and then realized it was “just a bit more” to buy sorcerers passes instead of 4 day tickets, then we had passes and decided we needed more points because we couldn’t stretch 200 points to 2 full trips, and then suddenly we owned another 125 resale points, before scooping up another 150 VGF during their big close out blow out. I absolutely think they could do something to target resale owners with a good values that feels like rewarding loyalty but actually helps them get people in parks/resorts at slower periods.

It’s funny because we all think about our own situation and forget there are many different types of buyers DVC needs to attract if they’re going to keep putting up towers every few years— for our family, needing to know when we will travel 9-11mo out is a significant headache. We would own much more VGC, and maybe even VDH, if we felt that we had any chance of getting in 8 weeks out— instead, we own about 1/3 the points we actually want on the assumption we have to guess, only book during the first 3/4 of the UY, and then cancel and bank if plans fall through.

I do think one thing almost all of us have in common is finding the 7mo switch out if you want to be very valuable— I’m still concerned that locking a significant percentage of points into home resorts is going to make it much harder to trade in— probably not for the first 10 years a restricted resort goes on sale, but increasingly as time goes on and more resorts are restricted.

We own at BCV and I’m interested in buying what comes next (even though we will be senior citizens by the time BCV is gone)— but I would be reluctant to buy a large contract that will outlive me by decades if I’m not confident the resale market stays healthy enough for my kids to easily discard it if they want to.

They should totally let resale stay at Riviera or disneyland hotel for one stay only their first year, I think it would definetely boost direct sales

 

[Brian Noble]

What is Pay It Forward?

Misfire: it is Dream it Forward.

Thread 'Dream It Forward Referral Thread'

Jul 8, 2023

Dream It Forward Referral Thread

Since the current promotion gives new buyers as well as current owners a reward, we have decided to allow members of the DIS community to offer themselves as referrals for this program.

Current Owners - You may only offer yourself as a referral in this thread. You may not solicit referrals in any other way, which includes posting you are available to be a referral via PM or in a thread in which someone asks for one. You may let them know this thread exists as a way to find a referral.

Simply post in this thread "I am interested in being a...

• Sandisw
• Replies: 191
• Forum: Purchasing DVC

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[Girlstar30]

Pushback comes from people not buying the product and there are definitely plenty of owners who have chosen not to purchase RIV due to the restrictions. It may even be the same for VDH and CFW...wait...people aren't buying CFW for reasons other than that...lol

But remember, not everyone goes into DVC with the same thinking when it comes to resale value. We bought in 2009, when resale and direct was exactly the same product and didn't consider resale value as part of the equation. We are simply indifferent to them because the value was in its use and not what would happen when we sell.

I think DVD went into restrictions playing the long game and that it would take several restricted resorts to be part of the product before it would be seen as "the norm"....

We shall see what happens with VLL if it is given the restrictions....which I assume it will....and whether people can overlook them for that project in the way some have with RIV.

The fact that its going to be a large resort really interests me on how restrictions on it will play out for Disney and how well it sells.

If its restricted and not as well received as Riviera was will this benefit them sales wise? Disneyland hotel still has people buying because its in California and there's only one other resort to choose from. Riv is smaller and widely popular with skyliner access and really beautiful, cfw is less popular and more niche and sales are reflecting that.

I think LSL is really going to show Disney and us if this restriction model is ideal for them selling resorts long term.

Maybe in a way restrictions will be good for direct owners in the sense that the hotels better be really good for Disney to sell at the pace they want to.

 

[Girlstar30]

Misfire: it is Dream it Forward.

Thread 'Dream It Forward Referral Thread'

Jul 8, 2023

Dream It Forward Referral Thread

Since the current promotion gives new buyers as well as current owners a reward, we have decided to allow members of the DIS community to offer themselves as referrals for this program.

Current Owners - You may only offer yourself as a referral in this thread. You may not solicit referrals in any other way, which includes posting you are available to be a referral via PM or in a thread in which someone asks for one. You may let them know this thread exists as a way to find a referral.

Simply post in this thread "I am interested in being a...

• Sandisw
• Replies: 191
• Forum: Purchasing DVC

• 
• 

Didn't know this was an option for resale buying direct, thanks!

 

[Sandisw]

Didn't know this was an option for resale buying direct, thanks!

A resale owner can’t get the referral bonus buying direct but all owners can refer someone else.

 

[Girlstar30]

A resale owner can’t get the referral bonus buying direct but all owners can refer someone else.

Oh ok darn haha thanks!

 

[Sandisw]

The fact that its going to be a large resort really interests me on how restrictions on it will play out for Disney and how well it sells.

If its restricted and not as well received as Riviera was will this benefit them sales wise? Disneyland hotel still has people buying because its in California and there's only one other resort to choose from. Riv is smaller and widely popular with skyliner access and really beautiful, cfw is less popular and more niche and sales are reflecting that.

I think LSL is really going to show Disney and us if this restriction model is ideal for them selling resorts long term.

Maybe in a way restrictions will be good for direct owners in the sense that the hotels better be really good for Disney to sell at the pace they want to.

I think we are far enough along that restrictions simply do not have a significant impact on direct sales and don’t see DVD moving away from them.

No matter how big LSL ends up being it will selll, and until it does, it will be used to supplement the hotel side.

DVD has the power to change restrictions and they have shown no sense they will.

Many buyers honestly don’t care enough about them to stay away from a resort they love. That is why people continued to buy RiV when VGF was for sale and now while Poly tower is for sale.

Every resort has its pros and cons…and once we have more restricted resorts in the mix, it will become the norm and no longer the outlier.

Which is what I speculate DVD knew when they went down this path…long term vs short

 

[NVDISFamily]

Do you know if they're able to see multiple use years/memberships belonging to the same person all at once or do they have to manually look up each membership?

I've asked both my guide and MS reps this question and they can see both. It does require them to look but it's not hard to do so assuming you are using the same login info and personal info for both memberships.

 

[Girlstar30]

I've asked both my guide and MS reps this question and they can see both. It does require them to look but it's not hard to do so assuming you are using the same login info and personal info for both memberships.

Yesterday when we went on the vdh villa tour the guide asked me where I owned and I said Baylake tower and I was only going to tell her I owned there. Later in the tour she asked me if the use year was the same on both of my memberships so she knew I had a membership I didnt tell her about just by my phone number she asked for

 

[cruisehopeful]

I agree with you and I think Disney is very smart to "punish" resale members because it does result in direct sales. Most people that own dvc and resale have at least 150 points direct so they can get these membership benefits.

You are treated differently as resale only and if you're a huge Disney fan like I am it does make you feel some type of way when people post about MM and reading about dvc parade viewings and meetups with Disney historians for DVC members when you are a DVC member, will be at the location, but you can't go.

Being blocked out of hotels you love sucks. Asking for swag and them looking you up and seeing that you are "resale only" and giving you something not as good sucks.

Not being able to access a lounge for DVC members when you are once again a DVC member sucks.

Cast members asking if you are dvc for a discount and you saying yes because you are and then them asking to see your membership and hoping they dont scan the card sucks. Usually they dont scan it, but the one time they do you feel like you're doing something wrong which of course you are because you know you're not entitled even though you are a dvc member and they asked that.

You cant be excited like everyone else for any new hotels they are building because you know you're out. And then there's the gray areas such as the Halloween party tickets where they let us purchase it through the app and it doesn't SAY you need DVC Y to purchase anywhere on the app so you truly are confused if youre eligible, but on some Google searches it says you do need to be DVC Y so now you have to weigh if you should risk it because its letting you or else what will happen, SUCKS. I can go on with more stuff (2042, prices going up later when u need direct etc)

My point is DVC has made it very clear how they feel about resale. I've seen guides face change when they find out im all resale, almost like they're wasting their time or you did Disney wrong

I would never buy direct if it wasnt for all these little leaving you out of things, gray areas to worry about and different treatment. Resale is still paying thousands of dollars. An extra $9000 to have 1 direct contract on sale with incentives is worth it imo after my short experience as resale only. As much as I've tried to convince myself it doesn't bother me, it does period.

With all these little slights there is no way they are going to reward resale with anything imo. Quite the opposite.

Having just gone to a villa tour with a guide yesterday their sales tactics are more than good enough to pull people in with direct.

They did all the old tricks with us, telling us we will get extra points if we buy direct with our December UY, telling us we will be able to trade points for cruises and world travel, showing us how cheap it is with a 15 year loan we would only have to pay $200 something to stay in this gorgeous room. Hell, I know all the bs and I was still tempted to sign on the dotted line I fully expect the current trends to continue.

I have absolutely no regrets doing things the way we have and if I could do it over again I wouldnt change a thing. But we will be buying direct within the next two years because of how Disney has structured things unfortunately.

I've been thinking that if I were given the option of direct benefits or $20K in cash (which is essentially a value) I would rather have the cash. Now that you've laid it out like this, I'm thinking that I would rather have the benefits. To me the value is truly about not being restricted with which resorts I can go to. I have the 150 VDH and while VDH add on makes tons of sense for me, I can't bring myself to add on there. I'm currently Team Poly Direct, mostly because I know it won't be restricted when I (or my survivors) sell it.

They should totally let resale stay at Riviera or disneyland hotel for one stay only their first year, I think it would definetely boost direct sales

I bet they could even charge a few to allow a one time booking and insist on a timeshare presentation, like the other brands do. I suspect they would have a significant amount of people trading in.

 

[Girlstar30]

I've been thinking that if I were given the option of direct benefits or $20K in cash (which is essentially a value) I would rather have the cash. Now that you've laid it out like this, I'm thinking that I would rather have the benefits. To me the value is truly about not being restricted with which resorts I can go to. I have the 150 VDH and while VDH add on makes tons of sense for me, I can't bring myself to add on there. I'm currently Team Poly Direct, mostly because I know it won't be restricted when I (or my survivors) sell it.

I bet they could even charge a few to allow a one time booking and insist on a timeshare presentation, like the other brands do. I suspect they would have a significant amount of people trading in.

You are pretty much reminded every time you go that you are resale in some form (no discount, lounges, dvc rep treatment etc) and it is annoying.

The one bedrooms, which is what we want, are so expensive to rent out and then selling points there are tax implications and not having control of the reservation is not ideal.

I tried so hard to find ways to work around it and while possible its just not ideal for many different reasons.

I truly think it would benefit them to offer a one time stay and a timeshare presentation or some other trade off would be fair, they could highlight what makes direct appealing