Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

No love for BRV?

I only see us losing 2 resorts, HHI & VB.
BCV, BRV & BWV will most likely be resold allowing current eligible owners to continue to book there. It will of course be a blow to those with non grandfathered resale contracts.

Does anybody have any idea what percentage of resale is currently grandfathered and/or what percentage of grandfathered resale will still exist after 2042? I believe it’s at least possible to have grandfathered resale at AKV, PVB, SSR, VGC, VGF, BLT, and AUL post 2042…but I think many of those resorts would have been very new when the restrictions kicked in so I would not expect much of their resale is grandfathered?

 

[Ruttangel]

It's a situation that doesn't have an easy answer, I'm afraid. Current DVC leadership seems to operate under the general premise of "DVC Resale is the devil."

Easy to forget that Disney has sold 100% of all resale contracts as direct developer points at some point, in fact sometimes sold the same points twice or even more if they get them back via foreclosure or ROFR
I don’t believe they think resale is evil, more that they see it as an annoying byproduct of the way they operate the club
I honestly don’t think they are losing that many sales, properties are still getting sold out and in the meantime lots of rooms get backfilled by cash guests
My main concern with current DVC strategy is that everything is becoming DVC, how do you keep it special if higher and higher %age of deluxe rooms are owned by us
They want to shift occupancy risk to us but things like the cabins whilst they make sense financially made no sense when comparing to the rest of the product
That doesn’t give me confidence in the decision makers

 

[eticketplease]

Does anybody have any idea what percentage of resale is currently grandfathered and/or what percentage of grandfathered resale will still exist after 2042? I believe it’s at least possible to have grandfathered resale at AKV, PVB, SSR, VGC, VGF, BLT, and AUL post 2042…but I think many of those resorts would have been very new when the restrictions kicked in so I would not expect much of their resale is grandfathered?

I am not sure anyone would know.
Remember there are different dates for the grandfathered points. The one that imo that has the biggest impact is for contracts on/before 1/19/2019 allowing the points to be used at any resort. If your points are in that camp they could have been from any of the O14 resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

Personally, I consider MMB to be a downgrade for direct members by making the lounges essentially pay-for-play.

Well, they paired that with things that have real value…memory maker, BOGO free OTU points and the ability to use points for an AP, not to mention the tickets.

So, yes, they made the lounge access wait times longer by including it, but the value in MMB for those above things is seen by many as a good trade off.

And, that is how it always is with works. The Sorcerer Pass is a benefit that doesn’t work for all so some are winners and some are not.

My guess is that is what DVC will continue to do as it plays the long game…try to add extras that are seen by a good portion of members as a net win.

 

[Sandisw]

Does anybody have any idea what percentage of resale is currently grandfathered and/or what percentage of grandfathered resale will still exist after 2042? I believe it’s at least possible to have grandfathered resale at AKV, PVB, SSR, VGC, VGF, BLT, and AUL post 2042…but I think many of those resorts would have been very new when the restrictions kicked in so I would not expect much of their resale is grandfathered?

We know all contracts bought post 2019 are restricted from restricted resorts.

The hard part is whether the contracts are already restricted when they are selling.

For example, I bought a BLT contract in 2020, so it was blocked from RIV, and sold it in 2021..that sale didn’t impact the % of restricted contracts at all.

So, what one would have to do with every sale is see when the owner bought to get an idea of how many resale contracts are moving columns.

From posts over the years, it has been stated that maybe 1% of owners who are selling each year are the original owners of those contracts…meaning they were brought direct.

Let’s use BLT for example…opened in 2009…so, by 2042, it will have contracts 33 years old…using that 1% figure, you’d maybe have 33% restricted.

Add in that there might also be some bought resale before 2019 that are now restricted? It might be a bit higher than that?


That is just one resort, so by 2042, there certainly will be a decent amount of points in the system that can’t trade to the newer resorts that show up.

So, as time goes on, and those popular resorts expire in 2042, resale owners will be left with fewer choices.

The hope is that those with direct points or grandfathered resale points at places like BLT, CCv, PVB, and VGF will want to trade to the new resorts so those restricted have options like today.

And, I think DVD is currently fine with making resale be seen as an option to stay on property for less but just with fewer options, including being restricted to just one resort.